how to pickpocker the bookies by clive keeling

HOW TO PICKPOCKETTHE BOOKIES:

3 Professional BettingStrategies that You Can

Profit from TODAY

by Clive Keeling

What Really Wins Money Special Report

WRWM_bettingstrategies 14/7/11 17:06

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CONTENTS

Chapter 1The Power of Compounding: from Acorns to Oak Trees

...................................................................page 5

Chapter 2Profit from the Bets Bookies HATE to TakeUsing this Each Way Betting Secret

.................................................................page 12

Chapter 3How to Grow Rich Slow With a HandicapLaying System

.................................................................page 20

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Hello and WelcomeFirst and foremost, congratulations!

By downloading this report you’ve already set yourself apart fromthe vast majority of punters. You know that there IS money to bemade from betting... that it’s just a case of knowing where to lookand when to strike.

That’s where I come in. My name is Clive Keeling and I write aweekly eletter called: ‘What Really Wins Money’.

It’s my job to seek out the best (and worst!) systems, tips out thereand provide my readers with honest, unbiased advice. To help themavoid the scams and hone in on strategies that really work.

Today I’ve compiled for you, dear reader, a small selection ofprofessional betting secrets that you can use right away. And guesswhat? I’m giving you all this information completely free of charge– no strings attached. Hey I’m just that kinda guy!

So grab yourself a cup of tea and make yourself comfortable. Overthe following pages I’ll reveal to you (in detail) 3 professionalbetting strategies that you can use right away. No fluff, no flab justeverything you need to get cracking.

Enjoy and good luck!

Clive Keeling

What Really Wins Money

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Chapter 1

The Power ofCompounding: fromAcorns to Oak TreesThere are lots of different ways you can make money with betting.

The traditional method is to bet on fancied selections and hope that,gradually the winnings from the successful bets outweigh theinevitable losses. It is entirely possible to profit from this method ofbetting provided we have successful money management installed.

However, for those of you with a little patience (and the disciplineto work your niche on a daily basis) you can turn a relatively smallinitial sum into £1000’s without actually having to, erm, gamble!

The formula goes a little something like this:

COMPOUNDING + TRADING = SUCCESS WITH PEACE OF MIND

So what exactly is compounding?

Well, simply put, we seek to earn a certain percentage of our bettingbank daily. So, if our target is £100, and we seek to earn 2% of ourbetting bank daily. Here’s how the first few days will look:

£100 + 2% = £102 £102 + 2% = £104.04 £104.04 + 2% = £106.12 £106.12 + 2% = £108.24 £108.24 + 2% = £110.40 £110.40 + 2% = £112.62 £112.62 + 2% = £114.87

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In our first week, we have realized a 14% return on our betting bank.

Take a walk down your high street, go to a bank, and ask if you candeposit £100 and get back £114 if you take the money out after 7days... I think you know what they’d say!

The daily profits we seek seem deceptively trifling, but let’s fastforward to a little further on in our compounding calendar.

After 4 weeks, our initial £100 would be £179.22. That’s just withlooking to make 2% daily.

Naturally as our betting bank increases, so naturally will the amountwhich makes up our 2% target.

So after 34 days, our betting bank has doubled, and 2% target nowbecomes £4 rather than £2. This trend will continue as the bettingbank increases.

It’s no wonder Einstein dubbed compounding the “eighth wonder ofthe world”

What are the tools of the trade?

There is one tool that will help us achieve our compounding targ e t sin as risk-free a manner as possible. It is the betting exchange Betfair.

In my mind, making 2% per day using conventional bookmakers isfar too risky. We have one choice with the bookmakers – our choicehas to win. With Betfair we have the ability to lay or to trade pricemovements. The latter offers the risk-free atmosphere we are seeking.

Horseracing:

By far the easiest way to make our compounding profit is by tradingprice fluctuations – ideally before a race goes into the running.

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NB. I urge you to take a look at www.binteko.com whose nifty botsoftware offers price graphs which indicate price momentum beforethe off. This bot is called “Fairbot” and takes the guesswork out ofprice movements.

If the price graph looks like this:

... the price is shortening considerably and we would back the horseand look to lay off at a lower price with the same stake.

If the price graph looks like this:

...the price is rising and we could look to lay the horse and back thehorse later as the back price increases.

Using Bet Angel’s (www.betangel.com) green button we can spreadthe profit made on the horse we have chosen to either back at acertain price and lay at a lower price with the same stake, or lay firstand back at a higher price.

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Summer Soul is laid at 3.45 because I think the horse will beunfancied and thus drift. I place a back bet at 3.55 for £97 to createmy £2 target profit on all horses.

Alternatively, we can back Summer Soul at 3.55 for £100 (the samestake at which we laid the horse).

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If you take this route, once you have made a profit on Summer Soul,press the green button next to the horse’s name on Bet Angel and thesoftware will automatically spread the profit to all horses – which isour goal when compounding.

Safety first...

I have been successfully employing this strategy, and have, oncertain days, made some £30 by simply picking a big priced outsiderand laying it at a certain price and placing a back bet at the nextbiggest price to produce a small profit.

Now, here I have decided to lay Winds of Change, having alreadyseen the price rise steadily. I lay the horse at odds of 34 for £3 andplace a back bet immediately at odds of 36 for £2.84 to createanother risk free profit of 15p. This is a relatively safe method ofmaking very small profits, but I do prefer trying to trade the moreliquid market leaders as, at times, we can get our day’s 2% targetprofit in one fell swoop.

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Football:

The key, for me, to make compounding profitable is to lay theextreme outsider against a very short priced favourite. Here are 2 examples:

Celtic v St Mirren and Dunfermline v Rangers. St Mirren werepriced at 19. I laid St Mirren for £5. My liability being £90. Celticscored first and St Mirren’s back odds increased dramatically.

Celtic went on to win 2-0 and I was able to back St Mirren to makea small risk-free profit on all outcomes.

Rangers scored first against Dunfermline, who’s back price, inreaction to the strong market leader’s goal, increased dramatically.Despite Rangers drawing the game at fulltime, the very fact thatthey scored first ensured that Dunfermline’s odds increased to suchan extent that I could get out of the bet very quickly, with my smalltarget showing all 3 results (home win, away win, and the draw).

Teams I will be focusing on this season to help with mycompounding will include Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester Unitedagainst Sheffield United, any Turkish league games whereFenerbahche and Galatasary are playing at home (provided theirodds are long odds on e.g. 1/5), Barcelona at home when their oddsto win are very short e.g. 1/5.

These are a small select group of teams I have followed season afterseason who do not lose when at very short odds.

In order to make football compounding profits, the matches wechoose MUST be bettable in running to enable us to trade out forour small target profits as early as possible.

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High risk compounding profits:

To those of you familiar with in-running horse racing, it may havecrossed your mind to see if you can back the most likely winner at1.02 as the race ends.

This is fraught with danger if you cannot follow the live racing, andit only takes a photo finish for you to wave goodbye to your stakemoney and thus end your compounding.

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Chapter 2

Profit from the BetsBookies HATE to TakeUsing this ‘Each Way’Betting SecretHere’s a fantastic way to exploit each way betting from someonewho makes his living from it. Over to Adam fromeasybetting.co.uk...

A winners guide to each way betting

Each way Betting has been around for years and is an extremelypopular method of betting as it adds an element of safety to any ofyour bets. For example if you back a horse each way that is 20/1you will still make a profit even if it came 2nd. Whereas if youbacked it to win the race you would lose!

So each way betting is essentially 2 bets in one – we place half ofthe bet to win the race and the other half on it to place. So whenstaking £25 each way this actually means a total of £50- £25 on thehorse to win and £25 on it to place.

Many people who are not regular race-goers get confused by this ontheir visit to the on-course bookmakers. When they ask for £5 eachway on a horse, they look baffled when the bookie asks for £10!Anyway let me explain the 2 different sides to an each way bet, thePlace and the Win bet.

The ‘Place’ part of the bet: this covers you if the horse finishes in

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the first 3 or 4 of the race. Dependent on the type of race it is, youwill get a bookmaker quoting odds such as “Each Way 1⁄4 1,2.3”

What this means is that the place part of your bet will pay out atodds of 1⁄4 the win odds if your horses finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Don’t worry, most people don’t understand how the place part of aneach way bet works... they just check their betting slip afterwardsand hope the bookie got it right!

The ‘Win’ part of the bet: firstly if the horse wins the race you winon both of your bets. Your horse has placed (come first) and alsowon the race so both of your bets have won. The win odds arecalculated at the odds of the horse X your staking (£25 if using theabove example). The downside is you obviously make less profitwhen an each way bet wins as only half your stake is going on it towin. However this is offset by the knowledge that if the bet comes2nd, 3rd or 4th you will have saved yourself a potential loss.

If the horse actually wins then the first thing to realise is that it alsoplaces – hence both bets win:

a) The win bet pays at 25 x £50 = £1250 + your £50 win stake back

b) The place bet pays exactly as above being £250 profit +your £50place stake back

Putting it together: overall you win £1,250 + £250 = £1,500, andyour account is credited with that plus all of your stake back =£1,600. Variations: not all horse races and sports will offer the sameterms. In horse racing it depends on the number of runners and thetype of race. The place fraction is either 1⁄4 or 1⁄5, and the number ofplaces is normally from 2 to 4.

For other sports it can vary a lot. In some tournaments like Tennisthe terms may be 1⁄2 1,2 meaning you’re only covered for a losing



finalist. In golf the terms may be 1⁄4 1,2,3,4,5 meaning that finishingin the first 5 will get you something (if you back each way).

If you don’t want to do the maths there are each way calculators thatwill do it all for you, such ashttp://www.bettingzone.co.uk/calculator/. Each way betting is a greatoption especially if backing horses at big prices. It saves the feelingof despair especially when your bet gets pipped in a photo finish bya 100/1 outsider!! That happened to me not long ago but at least Iwas on each way and so didn’t lose.

Follow my methods for successful each way betting

Everyone has their own preference for where and when they like toplace each way bets. Most people wrongly bet each way in the bigfield races where we often see 20+ runners all handicapped toensure a level playing field. Picking a horse to finish in the first 4,let alone win the race is nigh on impossible and the odds are wellweighed against you. This kind of each way bet is popular becauseput simply these kind of bets pay for the bookmakers holidays butthey are hyped to the hills by the racing press and TV coverage.

Personally I look for very specific types of races, those which havebetween 8 and 13 runners and where there is a clear favourite in themarket. Then I look at the favourite and make a decision based uponmy own knowledge and research whether I feel it offers value or isvulnerable to others in the race. If I feel it is vulnerable, I look toother horses in the race and look to see if there is each way valueelsewhere. On paper it sounds very simple but I often find myselfadvising members to take on very short priced favourites to lose therace, which is a very tricky skill. If you actually look at myhistorical results you will see you would have also made a clearprofit laying the favourites I have taken on. In the past I have

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successfully advised each way bets that have beaten favourites asshort as 1/3.... Which is generally unheard of!!

As a rule the shorter in price the favourite is, the bigger in price theother horses will get and this is where our each way value bets comein. However the shorter price the favourite the higher chance it hasof victory, and therein lies the expertise I utilise at my Easy Bettingservice, knowing where and what to be on and at what prices.

Why bookies hate my kind of bets

I’ve had an account or two limited in the past – some bookies getscared very easily by the profits I make through them! Thankfullythough there are more than enough good bookmakers who are gladto take me on, and I love the challenge! If you have yet to win eachway betting, let me tell you it can be done and is a tremendous wayto bet but you really need expertise in what you are doing.

I don’t win in every bet I place – no-one does – but I win overall.Here are a few examples:

Example 1: 3.10 Perth

Market has yet to settle properly and with one or two outsiders whomay come in for backing, I may advise an extra saver bet closer tothe race.

Favourite: Russian Sky. Advice: Has shown decent form and abilityso far, although I don’t feel at such tight odds he offers much value.However this opens up the race to each way options elsewhere

Each Way Bet: Duke Of Stradone. £50 each way.

(£100 to win). Advice: Looks to have found an ideal race to get off themark and should lay down the main threat to Russian Sky. Hopeful ofat least a place and at 4/1 or over looks a sound investment.



Minimum price to take: 4/1 generally on offer and make that yourminimum today Duke of Stradone duly obliged here

Example 2: 740 Uttoxeter

Favourite: Artane Boys.

Advice: McCoy onboard so an obvious stingy price for thisfavourite which has opened up value elsewhere. Drops in class butyet to totally convince and far too many question marks for such ashort price.

Each Way Bet: Don’t Sioux Me. £50 each way. (£100 to win).

Advice: Taking a chance that he can recover the form of old aftersome time away from the track. Safe to disregard 2 unsuitable racesin 2005 and if new trainer has him right will be a live threat to thefave. Minimum price to take: 6/1 in general best price on offer,make 11/2 your min today however.

Each Way Bet: Moorlaw. £50 each way. (£100 to win)

Advice: Also a bit hit and miss over the past few months but ifretaining obvious ability has the scope to challenge today. Minimumprice to take: 13/2 looks decent best price but ensure you get at least6/1 minimum. Moorlaw won this race at 9/2 and Don’tSioux Mewas unplaced.

Example 3: 250 Haydock 3

Favourite: Music By Mozart.

Advice: Finished behind last nights successfully taken on favouriteMumaathel last time out. Vulnerable at such a short price and valuelooks elsewhere despite the yard being in fine form.

Each Way Bet: Dallma. £50 each way. (£100 to win).

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Advice: Drops in trip today to 6 furlongs which may well suit.Showed glimpses of promise in runs to date and needs to improvetoday but still an each way option. Minimum price to take: 5/1 is thebest early price, make 9/2 your minimum if backed.

Each Way Bet: Methaaly. £50 each way. (£100 to win).

Advice: Stands out from the others in the race and worth a chancebased on pedigree. Watch your prices on this today. Minimum priceto take: 6/1 from Sporting Odds the best price, make 5/1 your minprice. Methally won at 6/1.”

So how can we profit from Adam’s strategyon our own bets?

Here’s an idea: why not look for short priced favourites to opposeand integrate this with an each way policy as Adam does?

Find a weak favourite and back a couple of rivals at each wayprices. With the rivals, use the betting forecast to determine if thereis a significant “hierarchy” in the race – eg: short priced fav at 4/6,2nd fav is 5/1, 3rd fav is 6/1, 4th fav is 10/1, 5th horse is 14/1, 6thhorse is 25/1.

Can you see the different levels? There’s horse one at the top, his 2main rivals next, then a 4 point leap to the next and a big 9 pointleap to the next. For each way purposes, I would concentrate on thehorses 2nd and 3rd in the betting, because of the price gap of 4points to the 10/1 horse and 4 points to the next. As ever, it is thelive market and not the betting forecast that really tells the truth. Socompare the odds in the betting forecast with the odds in the livemarket (remember the betting forecast is the opinion only of aRacing Post journalist) and note any market support for any horseswhich appear, in the above example, as 2nd or 3rd favourites in thebetting forecast. If their prices are generally 5/1 or above, they



represent good each way prices, because, worst case scenario is thatthe horses place, and we will actually get our stakes returned.

In my experience, the best races to concentrate on are maiden raceswith short priced favourites, especially if the short priced favouriteis a short price only on reputation of the trainer/jockey/stable.

With handicap races, horses who continue to win rise in the weightswith each progressive race, making their task a lot more difficult.Their sequence of wins will come to an end eventually and thesefavourites can be taken on with an each way priced selection.

Handicap hurdles races are also ideal hunting grounds. A recentexample came with Different Class, who, as Adam hinted at, wehave highlighted as a potential short-priced weak favourite. Why?Different Class is carrying a double penalty for a string of successesand was still installed as a short priced favourite at 7/4. Grand SlamHero was 2nd favourite and was priced at 4/1 early on, with goodprevious form. Different Class lost and Grand Slam hero came 2ndin a photo finish.

National Hunt Flat Races are also ideal hunting grounds for weakfavourites. These races are the equivalent of maiden races on the flat – e.g. the favourite may be there based purely on reputation. The shorter the price, the bigger the each way prices of theopponents. If we can determine close rivals to the favourite usingthe betting forecast, we could have a good each way bet hoping tooverturn the favourite.

TIP – I would highly recommend Betfair for each way betting. Theodds on offer can actually be much bigger than the odds which thebookmakers provide. To place an each way bet via Betfair, simplyback the horse in the place only market, and back the horse in thewin only market with the same stake. Try to make sure that the placeonly odds are 2.00 or above (equivalent to evens). This will ensure

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that, if your horse is placed, then you will get your stake returned.

I happily recommend Adam’s service as it has been profitingregularly over the last few months. June’s results were not as goodas I would have liked, with a number of unplaced horses and loststakes as a result. However, July’s results have continued positively.This service will be ideal if you can afford to bet £50 each way onbets and are happy to bet only when the timing is right as therewon’t be bets every day. Take a look athttp://www.easybetting.org.uk, where results are fully disclosed.Please understand I have no affiliation whatsoever with this serviceand receive no kick backs from recommending it; I have found thatAdam’s each way philosophy makes a lot of sense and is close tomy own thinking and makes money!



Chapter 3

How to Grow Rich Slow With a HandicapLaying SystemWhoever heard of turning £3,000 into £90,000 in one year bettingon horses without backing a single winner? I had to share this greatlittle system with you following the experiences of a girl calledMaria who posted a thread on a certain betting forum.

The opportunity to make money like the bookmakers from thecomfort of your home is now a reality and there is no reason at all thatyou can’t replicate the feats of Maria and make some money yourself.

Before I get down to the meat and bones of how you can make greatprofits from actually backing horses to lose, you must look on thisas a business and a long term proposition – it is not a get rich quickgambling plan, rather a get-richer-at-a- leisurely-pace opportunity tomake long term gains which will be realizable in one short year.

If you’re new to the whole area of gambling, I must introduce you to a new phenomenon that has revolutionized the world of betting.Traditionally we put a bet on to win. Now, with the arrival of betting exchanges, like www.betfair.com (the global leader), we canoppose horses who we think have little chance of winning, andprofit from losers!

This is essentially what the bookmakers do. Bookmakers make abook up for a specific horse race and “lay the odds” ie offer odds tobackers who place their stake on a selection, and that selection mustwin for them to realize a profit. As a layer, the bookmaker has

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engineered his prices in such a way that he has an inbuilt profitmargin on all the horses prices that he has offered to the backers.

While the punter is looking for the horse he has backed to win, thebookmaker is looking for that same horse to lose! The advantage tothe bookmaker – he has all the other horses in the race running forhim and against the punter’s selection.

Would you rather back one horse to win, and profit only if that horsewins, or would you like to lay a horse and have all other horsesrunning for you?

This is entirely possible now, and a novice can get started and getprofiting now.

Selecting horses to lay

Before we start, please take a tour of www.betfair.com to familiarizeyourself with betting exchanges because it is these that will be thesource of your future profits.

Once you’ve logged on to Betfair, click on “ Take a demo tour” toget a better understanding of the workings of Betfair.

Control your liability

Let’s go back to the traditional world of backing horses. You havefound a horse you fancy at 2/1. You place a tenner to win on thehorse. The horse wins, you win £10 multiplied by the odds = £10 x2 divided by 1 = £20.

Now if you didn’t fancy this horse, you could actually lay it on thebetting exchanges.

The horse’s price would be 3.00 (the decimal equivalent of 2/1,calculated simply by adding one to the fractional odds of 2/1). If you wanted to win £20, if this horse lost you would place your



bet (see below)

Fig 1

The figure with a minus is the liability. If Inquisitress actually wonthis race, and we opposed the horse, we would lose this £40. Thefigure against the other runners shows the profit we would make ifInquisitress lost the race.

Can you see we have 13 horses running for us (not all in screenshot)and if any of these 13 runners beat Inquisitress we are in profit.

Liability Control – the Key to Your Success

If our selections to lay keep winning their races rather than losingthem, then we will lose a lot of money and quickly! So, let meintroduce you to the first step to become your own home bookie!

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STEP 1 – Selecting Horses to Lose Their Races

In order to make the profits we want to make it is vitally importantthat we have a strike rate of 85% or thereabouts on the horses weselect to lose. This ensures that, if any of our selections have theaudacity to win their races, then we have made enough profits fromthe losers to ensure our betting bank is not adversely affected.

I have identified one specific type of race which is ideal for findinga good percentage of losing horses, and this race is the HANDICAP.

In handicap races, additional weight is added to the good horses andweight is taken off the less consistent horses. This ensures that thesetypes of races are very competitive, and it is in competitive raceslike this that we have a better chance of the favourites losing.

Use these 2 lay selection systems

I use 2 selection systems which have produced the 85% strike rate.Here’s how they work:

System 1

• Log in to www.racingpost.co.uk. Click on main site. You will needto register – this is free and easy to do.

• Once logged in click on one of the meetings under the heading CARDS

• Click on ‘View all races’

• Go through the races until you come to a race with ‘Handicap’ inthe title

• Look at the horses who are named in the top third of the race. Inthis case we will be looking at the top 4 horses in this race –Makfly, Colorus, Stonehaugh and John Keats.



Fig 2

• Make a note of those horses who have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd intheir last race ie, the last number under the FORM column shouldshow a 1, 2 or 3 ( if there are 16 runners or more, we also includehorses who have a 4 ) Ignore races with 7 runners or less

• Our selection is the horse who meets the above criteria, and is the BIGGEST PRICE IN THE BETTING FORECAST

• Do this with each handicap race at each race course until we havea list of horses to oppose.

Selection System 2

Again we go to one of the meetings mentioned under ‘CARD’. Thistime we will click on the first race with the words ‘handicap’ in thetitle. This is the 330 Catterick, but this race doesn’t qualify for thissystem. We go to 500 Catterick.

The race must have more than 7 runners. The more runners we have,the more difficult it is for the fancied horses to win. This race has 14so passes the first stage.

The betting forecast favourite must NOT be mentioned in BOLDCAPITALS by Spotlight Verdict (you can see below that Princess

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Cleo is in BOLD CAPITALS).

See the right hand of Fig 3.

Fig 3.

In this example Trojan Flight passes this stage.

Now we click on “Selections”. The betting forecast favourite mustnot have higher than 3 selections. This indicates that the tipstersdon’t unanimously agree that Trojan Flight will win. Only 3 of the14 tipsters have chosen Trojan Flight – 11 have not! In this example,Trojan Flight had 2 selections so made it into our selection.

Fig 4.



LAY OUR SELECTIONS

Now we must return to www.betfair.com to place our bets. The keyhere is the staking plan. Using a theoretical betting bank of £1000,we will place our lay stakes as follows:

For horses whose prices are 3.5 and lower to lay (if you’ve taken thedemo tour the lay prices are in pink on the right hand side of thescreen) our stake is 1% of our betting bank eg £10 in the case of£1000 betting bank. As the betting bank increases so will our 1%stake. Eg if our betting bank was £1100 our 1% stake would be £11.

For horses whose prices are between 3.6 and 7.4 to lay, our stake is0.6% of our betting bank, or £6 using our example of a £1000betting bank.

For horses whose prices are between 7.5 and 11 to lay, our stake is 0.4% of our betting bank, or £4 using our example of £1000betting bank.

Fig 5

Taking our example from an actual selection (see Fig 5), you can seethat the odds to lay Trojan Flight (the 2nd column) are 6.8. So yourstake will be 0.6% or £6 if using £1000 as your starting capital.

You will win £6 less Betfair commission = £5.70 if Trojan flightloses. If Trojan Flight has the cheek to win, we lose £34.80, which,relative to our betting bank will not set any alarm bells ringing, asthe potential loss will be negated by other winning bets!

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All of these bets can be placed in a lunch hour and left. Log intoBetfair later on to see how you have faired and begin the processagain the next day. Don’t worry about the odd losing day, it is thefigure after 365 days that is the key.

BOTTOM LINE: There you have it. A simple way you can becomea bookmaker. Let me stress that the girl I mentioned before, Maria,turned £3,000 into £90,000 with a strike rate similar to the one I amexperiencing at present. With patience and discipline, there is noreason you cannot model what she has done and duplicate thesuperb results.

I am always seeking to improve the strike rate and will keep youinformed. My actual trial has turned a nominal £500 starting bankinto £570 in a little over a week – contact me in a year and I’m suremy butler will be able to update you on my successes – I’ll be at thebeach hanging out with my celeb friends!!

That’s it! I hope you enjoyed the report.

Yours,

Clive Keeling

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how to pickpocker the bookies by clive keeling

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