how to play with the futures: presentation at bizcamp
TRANSCRIPT
How to play with the futures BizC
amp,
Vilv
oord
e, B
elgi
um, J
une
5, 2
010
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
I presented the following few slides at the BizCamp gathering, held in the new SAP Lounge in Vilvoorde, near Brussels, Belgium, on June 5, 2010 (see more about at www.bizcamp.be)
I had only 20 min (less even) to tell the story, so I skipped a few important explanations during the presentation. Also, the format demanded to put more visuals and less text on the slides, so they may be not self-explanatory enough without a ‘voice-over’ of some sort.
I therefore added a few such ‘yellow boxes’ later, with a hope that they will help to understand the story a bit better.
NB: As a cover (see the previous slide) I use the picture of a wonderful installation called Laser Sound Projector, by the Dutch artist Edwin van der Heide, a very close approximation of what I mean by ‘playing with the futures’.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
After showing this slide I briefly explained the meaning of ‘summon’; It is a relatively rare word, so it never harms to tell about its meaning.
In law the world ‘summon’ means an order to show up in a court room, issued by a judge. But originally it referred to a special skill possessed by the mages that allowed for them to call and literally transfer objects or people from one place to another. More powerful mages were capable to summon things through time, calling them from the past, or from the future.
It’s important that even the most powerful mages were unable to summon things alone; the ritual always required a help of other people, and was collaborative by its very nature.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
Weather forecasting is one of the most typical examples people provide when being asked about the ‘future’. We expect ‘accurate’ and ‘timely’ predictions.
Another typical example is all sorts of financial forecasts: we are hungry to learn about the futures (literally the name of one of the financial tools).
t
future cone of (un)certainty
We want to reduce the ‘fog’of uncertainty, and gain a precise knowledge about the future
What is the ‘future’ of this process?
?
?
?
We are ready to spend significant efforts (and money)to learn which color will be the One
To only learn that the future is…
[The trouble with our times is that]
the future is not what it used to be
Paul Valéry
t
future cone of possibilities
Scenario A
Scenario B
We start to understand that ‘future studies’ is not aboutcertain answers, but aboutexpanding a range of possible options.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
Google ‘future scenarios’ and you will find thousands of similar quadrants. But. How do we know that these futures are not the versions of the same current assumptions?
It is very difficult to imagine the future which is different from your current reality .
We tend to project to the future the qualities that exist now.
Presented with alternative views about the future, we often can’t understand them.
If we do understand, we can’t accept them ;
the futures contradict to the existing order of things.
Even if we accept theses new ideas, we fail to create
‘new future things’: new artifacts, new products, new solutions .
And even if someone else does it for us, we cant’ make sense of them because we can’t - or don’t want to - change themselves.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.
Interactive and engaging ways to play with the possible futures
Multisensorial immersive environments to experience new qualities, to ‘feel’ the futures
Future of the Netherlands 2024
1
www.designinitiatief.nl
Three cases
2
The future of the Internet of Things
www.theinternetofthings.eu
3
Walking Backward to the future
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
www.dutchdesignweek.nl
Sustainability
Business
New Technologies
Society
Politics
Ecology
Innovation
Community
The Netherlands 2024 ?
?
?
?
?
?
?
1
www.designinitiatief.nl
The first step of this study wasmore or less standard, the team conducted interviews with the experts and gathered different opinions from various sources
But then we developed a game,to play with the possible futures, to ‘build’ the futures using the ideas as the ‘building blocks’.We used role-playing and different‘currencies’ in the game.
2The future of the Internet of Things
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
RFID tags for inventorying, facilitating routing, access control
2000
Surveillance, security, healthcare, transport, food safety, document management
2010 2020
Ubiquitous Positioning:Locating people and everyday objects
Physical World Web: Teleoperation and tele-presence, monitoring and control of distant objects
www.theinternetofthings.eu
Traditional one-dimensional, one-directional roadmapping, driven by the technology only.
Far, Far Away Land
The Internet of Dragons
Trolls(‘hackers’)
Internet of Dragons!
We developed an imaginary land populated by various dragons, and asked participants to develop, well, The Internet of Dragons, following their role-models with specific value systems.
Tangible projects, colliding and competingwith each other in the real space - but also rich emotional stories and insights.
And - the most memorable experience for the participants!
3Walking Backward to the Future
We usually see the future ahead of us
We look - and walk - ‘toward the future’
We leave the past ‘behind us’
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
What we see in front of us is our past
Unknown future lays behind
What if we challenge these assumptions?
What if ask people to ‘walk to the futures backward’?
Sketch of the “Walking Backward to the Futures” installation: a tentand a hood with an audio feedback
The installation would allow to probe multiple possible futures, from simple to very complex ones, individually or in a team.
WE SUMMON THE FUTURES.
FOR YOU TO PLAY WITH THEM NOW.We are not ‘delivering’ the futures to people.We are helping people to discover their own futures, and transform toward them
