how to thrive in disruptive times
TRANSCRIPT
How to Thrive in Dis
Gary A. BollesCo-founder, eParachute.com
Partner, Charrette LLC
ruptive Times
Understanding disruption
Unbundling and “the middle”
Uncovering opportunities
One person’s disruption is another’s opportunity
Identifying strategies
From survive to thrive
Our focus today
Understanding disruption
Unbundling and “the middle”
Uncovering opportunities
One person’s disruption is another’s opportunity
Identifying strategies
From survive to thrive
Our focus today
Your life
Your business
Your economy
Slacker at age 19
So who is this guy?
So who is this guy?Slacker at age 19
First professional job at 27
6 tech magazines
Evolve Software - IPO
SoCap - impact investors & entrepreneurs
Let’s talk about the future.
Let’s talk about the future.
“The future is not what it
used to be.”Attributed to baseball great Yogi Berra, but most
likely it was actually first put in writing by Laura Riding and Robert Graves
Let’s talk about the future.
“The future is not what it
used to be.”Attributed to baseball great Yogi Berra, but most
likely it was actually first put in writing by Laura Riding and Robert Graves
“We wanted flying cars, and
got 140 characters.”
Peter Thiel, co-founder, PayPal
Everything we know about the future is worng.1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”2. “The future is always just around the corner.”3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
Everything we know about the future is worng.1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”2. “The future is always just around the corner.”3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong
Everything we know about the future is worng.1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”2. “The future is always just around the corner.”3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong
We think change will simply be linear...
...but it usually isn’t.
We’re living in exponential times.
We’re living in exponential times.
What’s an exponential step?30 Linear Steps (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) =
What’s an exponential step?30 Linear Steps (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) =
30 meters
30 Exponential Steps (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…) =
What’s an exponential step?30 Linear Steps (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…) =
30 meters
30 Exponential Steps (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…) =
1 billion meters
We’re living in exponential times.
Everything we know about the future is worng.1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”2. “The future is always just around the corner.”3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong
“The future is already here - it’s just not always evenly distributed.”
-William Gibson
Everything we know about the future is worng.1. “Looking back at eras of technology innovation in
the past allows us to accurately project forward.”2. “The future is always just around the corner.”3. “If we knew exactly what was going to happen
tomorrow, we’d make the right decisions today.”
Source: Terrafugia TF-X
wrong
Technology+Globalization
How were entire industries disrupted by technology+globalization?
How were entire industries disrupted by technology+globalization?
They were unbundled.
?
Winning in the era of “hard power” =
Vertical integration.Top-down hierarchies.
Command-and control management.Market domination.
“Push” strategies.
Music
Magazines
Newspapers
Books
TV
Movies
Videos
How did the new leaders do it?
How did the new leaders do it?
They created platforms.
What’s a platform?
What’s a platform?
A set of Application Program Interfaces (APIs) that allow other programs to send and receive
information & instructions.
What’s a platform?
A set of Application Program Interfaces (APIs) that allow other programs to send and receive
information & instructions.
In other words… a place where otherscan build their businesses.
What’s next?
ManufacturingFinancial ServicesLegal ServicesHigher EducationHealthcare
How does technology+globalizationaffect these industries?
They evaporate the middle.
Technology+globalization....
...evaporate the middle...
…leading to a fat-bottomed world.
The small & nimble can thrive.
The small & nimble can thrive.
What about the economy?
What about the economy?
What about work?
What about work?
And, will robots and software eat our jobs?
Education
Work
Leisure
The Three Boxes of Life
Education
Work
Leisure
Career
Career
We need new strategies.
We need to leverage strategies thatincrease our “soft power.”
Disruption: Less traditional work.
Career
Disruption: Less traditional work.Opportunity: A portfolio of work.
Career
Career
Strategy: “work change” as a skill.
Disruption: Less traditional work.Opportunity: A portfolio of work.
Disruption: An increasingly unbundled world.Opportunity: Create your own connections.
Disruption: An increasingly unbundled world.Opportunity: Create your own connections.
Strategy: Grow your network.
Disruption: A rapidly-changing world.Opportunity: Learning rapidly.
How well do you do it?
How much do you love it?
How well do you do it?
!
How much do you love it?
How well do you do it?
!
InterestCuriosity PassionStudy
How much do you love it?
How well do you do it?
!
How much do you love it?
How well do you do it?
!
X X
How much do you love it?
How well do you do it?
!
X X
How much do you love it?
How well do you do it?
!
X X
?
It’s also true for employers.
PerformanceFit
CulturalFit
!
PerformanceFit
CulturalFit
X X
?
Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
● Top down● Scale efficiency● Process efficiency● Excising creativity
The new arms race
Courtesy of Adafruit
Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
Intuitive
Analytic
Repetitive Adaptive
● Top down● Scale efficiency● Process efficiency● Excising creativity
● (No top or bottom)● Scalable learning● Design thinking● Collaborative solutions
Carburetor Repair, Step 3. Remove base screws by reaching under the main housing. (Make sure the engine is cool!). Store the base screws in a safe place.. Run a finger around the housing base to determine if carburetor fluid has leaked.
Carburetor Repair, Step 3. Remove base screws by reaching under the main housing. (Make sure the engine is cool!). Store the base screws in a safe place.. Run a finger around the housing base to determine if carburetor fluid has leaked.
Disruption: The end of the three boxes.Opportunity: A new model.
Education
Work
Leisure
Strategy: Become a life-long learner.
Disruption: The end of the three boxes.Opportunity: A new model.
Our lives are bundles as well.
Our lives are bundles as well.
1. Challenging things continue to happen
2. Being passive makes things worse.
3. Life doesn’t work out the way we’d planned.
4. It’s harder and harder to go it alone.
5. Putting things off makes the situation worse.
1. Challenging things continue to happen
2. Being passive makes things worse.
3. Life doesn’t work out the way we’d planned.
4. It’s harder and harder to go it alone.
5. Putting things off makes the situation worse.
Resilient
EntrepreneurialAdaptive
Collaborative
Hard-working
What should cities do?
Source: gov.nz
Transform Education.Transform Education.
1. Challenging things will continue to happen
2. Being passive makes things worse.
3. Life doesn’t work out the way we’d planned.
4. It’s harder and harder to go it alone.
5. Putting things off makes the situation worse.
Resilient
EntrepreneurialAdaptive
Collaborative
Hard-working
What should cities do?
Scenario planning. Rapid-change processes balanced with long-range.
City as a platform. APIs. Code for Christchurch.
Commitment to a model of ongoing change.
Connections between people & between organizations - & cities.
Engaging citizens in developing strategies for growth.
Resilient
EntrepreneurialAdaptive
Collaborative
Hard-working
What should cities do?
Remember...Industries unbundle.Shift happens.The middle evaporates.ANDThis creates new opportunity for the disruptors.The small and nimble are well-positioned to win.For you. For your business. For your city & economy.
Your opportunity:Don’t just survive in disruptive
times...
...Thrive.
Further reading.LinkedIn: gbollesEmail: [email protected]: gbollesSlideshare: gbollesUnbundling Media, Unbundling Higher Education,
Unbundling the Middle Class, and insights from the Closing The Gap conference, Unbundling Work (in process)
And, for a bonus, TEDxSanQuentin: Life Revealed