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Percentiles Christer Modin, Model Developer

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Page 1: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

PercentilesChrister Modin, Model Developer

Page 2: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Outline

Estimating uncertainty

Percentiles

Demo

Page 3: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Estimating uncertainty

Follow Up - Plug-ins

• Histogram

• Scatter plots

• Hourly overlay

Page 4: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Estimating uncertainty

Aiolos Model StudioPrediction horizon

Page 5: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Percentiles

P75 (3rd Quartile)

P50 (Median)

P25 (1st Quartile)

x = P25 ⟺ Pr(X≤x) = 0.25x = P75 ⟺ Pr(X≤x) = 0.75

25 %

Page 6: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Percentiles in Aiolos

Based on historical performance

Conditional error distributions

Model types

• Wind power

Prediction horizon

Forecasted value

• Load

Prediction horizon

Hour of day, day type

• Solar

Prediction horizon

Hour of day

(Not from ensemble Weather Forecasting)

Page 7: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Displaying and exporting Percentiles

• Selectable range (P0 – P100)

• High-Low Area plot

• Export (all validations)

Page 8: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Estimating Percentiles

• Period

• Extract• Saved forecasts

Filter prog-files

• Recreated forecasts

• Forecast type• Exported

• Unadjusted

• Customizable in script

Page 9: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Demo

Percentiles

Page 10: How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy based on prediction horizon (hours) MAE Extract name: Percentiles E: Extract name:

Thank you!Christer Modin, Model Developer

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