howard m. johnson · increase sharply, primarily in fresh fish species china will need to import...
TRANSCRIPT
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Market OpportunitiesMarket Opportunities
ForFor
Shellfish AquacultureShellfish Aquaculture
Shellfish AquacultureShellfish AquacultureConferenceConference
Anchorage, AlaskaAnchorage, AlaskaDecember 3, 2004December 3, 2004
Howard M. JohnsonHoward M. JohnsonH.M. Johnson & AssociatesH.M. Johnson & Associates
Howard M. JohnsonHoward M. Johnson
[email protected]@hmj.com
www.hmj.comwww.hmj.com
www.fishjobs.comwww.fishjobs.com
30+ years in the30+ years in theseafood industryseafood industry
15+ years in seafood15+ years in seafoodconsulting and marketconsulting and marketresearchresearch
Shellfish Marketing AgendaShellfish Marketing AgendaThe view from 30,000 feetThe view from 30,000 feet
World seafood supply demand trendsWorld seafood supply demand trendsForecast world demandForecast world demand
JapanJapan
ChinaChina
EuropeEurope
United StatesUnited States
World cultured shellfish productionWorld cultured shellfish production
U.S. shellfish culture issues/opportunitiesU.S. shellfish culture issues/opportunities
Marketing opportunities for AlaskaMarketing opportunities for Alaska
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Forecast World Seafood DemandForecast World Seafood Demand
Million Tons
Source: Int’l Food Policy Research Inst.
32
Millio
n T
on
sJapan
Japanese Seafood SupplyJapanese Seafood SupplyTrending LowerTrending Lower
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e
Imports
Aquaculture
Fisheries
Million Metric Tons
3
Japan: Supply/Demand TrendsJapan: Supply/Demand Trends
Japanese population approaching zeroJapanese population approaching zerogrowth will then shrinkgrowth will then shrink
Per capita seafood consumption decliningPer capita seafood consumption declining
Household seafood spending decliningHousehold seafood spending declining
Still a major shellfish importerStill a major shellfish importer18,770 MT of clams in 200318,770 MT of clams in 2003
8,192 MT of oysters8,192 MT of oysters
Japan 2020Japan 2020A Shrinking MarketA Shrinking Market
7.507.607.707.807.908.008.108.208.308.408.50
2000 2020
Million Tons Round Weight
China
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China Seafood SupplyChina Seafood Supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e
Imports
Aquaculture
Fisheries
Million Metric Tons
China 2020China 2020StrongStrong Future DemandFuture Demand
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 20202000 Total Additional Tons Required
Million Tons
18 Million
Tons
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute
ChinaChina’’s urban households consume less staple food and mores urban households consume less staple food and morepoultry, seafood, oils and dairy productspoultry, seafood, oils and dairy products
NumberNumber
8229Refrigerators owned per 100 households
2611Dairy Products
1813Vegetable Oil
2218Fish and Shrimp
3524Poultry and Eggs
4249Red Meat
256306Vegetables
176289Grain
Pound Per CapitaPound Per Capita
20011990Food Item
Source: China Statistical Yearbook
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ChinaChina’’s rural households still rely on stapless rural households still rely on staples
Pounds Per Capita (2001)
Number (2001)Number (2001)
8214Refrigerators owned per 100households
263Dairy Products
1812Vegetable Oil
228Fish and Shrimp
3517Poultry and Eggs
4232Red Meat
256240Vegetables
176524Grain
Urban ResidentsRural ResidentsFood Item
Source: China Statistical Yearbook
China:China: Supply Trends Supply Trends
““Zero growthZero growth”” policy for coastal fishing policy for coastal fishing
Aquaculture production will continue toAquaculture production will continue toincrease sharply, primarily in fresh fish speciesincrease sharply, primarily in fresh fish species
China will need to import more seafood toChina will need to import more seafood tosustain demandsustain demand
Entry into WTO will end tariffs by 2007Entry into WTO will end tariffs by 2007
China: China: Demand TrendsDemand TrendsUrban consumer market increasingUrban consumer market increasing
Growth (and consolidation) of retailGrowth (and consolidation) of retail
Growth in middle class (with disposableGrowth in middle class (with disposableincome)income)
Demand for upscale seafoodsDemand for upscale seafoods•• ShrimpShrimp•• LobsterLobster•• Live fishLive fish
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Europe
European* Seafood SupplyEuropean* Seafood Supply
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002p
Net Imports
Aquaculture
Fisheries
Million Metric Tons
*EU 15 + Iceland and Norway (Trade + product weight)
Forecast European DemandForecast European Demand
13.00
15.00
2000 2020EU15 + Norway & Iceland EU+10
Million Tons Round Weight1.3 Million
Tons
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World Shellfish CultureWorld Shellfish Culture
World Cultured Oyster ProductionWorld Cultured Oyster Production
Metric Tons Live Weight
Source: FAO FishStat
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
World Cultured Clam ProductionWorld Cultured Clam Production
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Metric Tons Live Weight
Source: FAO FishStat
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World Cultured Mussel ProductionWorld Cultured Mussel Production
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Metric Tons Live Weight
Source: FAO FishStat
World Cultured Scallop ProductionWorld Cultured Scallop Production
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Source: FAO FishStat
Metric Tons
U.S. Shellfish Market
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U.S. Cultured Shellfish ProductionU.S. Cultured Shellfish Production
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Oysters
Blue mussel
Clams
Metric Tons Live Weight
Source: FAO
U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
StrengthsStrengths
Farmed mollusks are “ocean friendly”
Farmed Mollusks Rate High withFarmed Mollusks Rate High withEnvironmental GroupsEnvironmental Groups
Blue Ocean Institute – “Farmed clams,mussels, oysters and bay scallops…topchoice.”
Monterey Bay Aquarium – “Farmed clams,oysters and mussels…best choice.”
Environmental Defense – “Farmed abalone,clams, mussels and oysters…best choices.”
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U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
StrengthsStrengths
Farmed mollusks are “ocean friendly”
Mollusks have good nutritional profiles
Mollusk prices are generally stable
U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
WeaknessesWeaknesses
Negative publicity regarding toxins
Strong reliance on ethnic markets
Some growing areas “anti-aquaculture” or polluted
Some products not “consumer friendly”
Production data not readily available
U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
OpportunitiesOpportunitiesU.S. Seafood market is growing
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Scallops Scallops –– 0.314 0.314
Crab Crab –– 0.327 0.327
Salmon Salmon –– 0.433 0.433
Catfish Catfish –– 0.60 0.60
Clams Clams –– 0.612 0.612
Flatfish Flatfish –– 0.619 0.619
Alaska Pollock Alaska Pollock –– 1.18 1.18
Cod Cod –– 1.71 1.71
Shrimp Shrimp –– 2.40 2.40
Canned Tuna Canned Tuna –– 3.5 Lbs 3.5 Lbs
1988 – 15.2 Lbs
-62.6.%-62.6.%Cod Cod –– 0.64 0.64
+90.0%+90.0%CatfishCatfish –– 1.14 1.14
+44.9%+44.9%Alaska Pollock Alaska Pollock –– 1.71 1.71
+5.1%+5.1%ScallopsScallops –– 0.33 0.33
-13.4%-13.4%ClamsClams–– 0.53 0.53
nnTilapiaTilapia–– 0.54 0.54
+86.5%+86.5%CrabCrab–– 0.61 0.61
+412.7%+412.7%SalmonSalmon –– 2.22 2.22
-2.8%-2.8%Canned Tuna Canned Tuna –– 3.4 3.4
+66.7%+66.7%ShrimpShrimp –– 4.0 Lbs 4.0 Lbs
% Change2003 – 16.3 Lbs
Source: National Fisheries Institute from NMFS data
Top 10 Seafoods ConsumedTop 10 Seafoods ConsumedAquaculture now driving consumptionAquaculture now driving consumption
U.S. Population 1950 Versus 2020U.S. Population 1950 Versus 202070+ Million Americans Over Age 60 by 202070+ Million Americans Over Age 60 by 2020
-3
2
7
12
0-4 5-9 10-
14
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65-
69
70-
74
75-
79
80+
Age Group
1950
2020
% of Population
Protein Consumption 2000 vs 2020Protein Consumption 2000 vs 2020Per Capita Beef, Pork Consumption DropPer Capita Beef, Pork Consumption Drop
Seafood Increases by 6.58 PercentSeafood Increases by 6.58 Percent
Source: USDA ERS
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Future U.S. Seafood DemandFuture U.S. Seafood DemandPopulation growth and changing demographics alone will require an additionalPopulation growth and changing demographics alone will require an additional
3.3 billion pounds (round wt.) by 2020. Greater supply and low prices could push3.3 billion pounds (round wt.) by 2020. Greater supply and low prices could push
demand even higherdemand even higher
Billion Pounds Round Weight
10
12
14
2000 2020
2000 Total Population Demographics
U.S. Seafood Demand in 2020U.S. Seafood Demand in 2020How much more supply needed?How much more supply needed?
0 5 10 15 20 25
2020 UnlimitedSupply
2020 Demographics
2020 Population
2000 Base Case
20 pounds per capita
15 pounds per capita
15 pounds per capita
16 pounds per capita
+
+
+
Billion Pounds Round Weight
1.8 Billion
Pound
Increase
9 Billion
Pound
Increase
3.3 Billion
Pound
Increase
U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
OpportunitiesOpportunitiesU.S. Seafood market is growing
Away-from-home seafood growth willoutpace other proteins
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Future U.S. Seafood DemandFuture U.S. Seafood DemandGrowth in both Retail and FoodserviceGrowth in both Retail and Foodservice
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Seafood
Growth % 2000 vs 2020
Away fromhomeAt home
Source: USDA ERS
U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
OpportunitiesOpportunitiesU.S. Seafood market is growing
Away-from-home seafood growth willoutpace other proteins
Good export markets
U.S. Mollusk Exports 2003U.S. Mollusk Exports 2003
192
607
2643
4565
$6,400
$1,664
$12,909
$26,766
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Abalone
Mussels
Oysters
Clams
Metric Tons $'000
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U.S. Molluscan AquacultureU.S. Molluscan Aquaculture
OpportunitiesOpportunitiesU.S. Seafood market is growing
Away-from-home seafood growth willoutpace other proteins
Good export markets
Processing/packaging technology willprovide added safety
U.S. Oyster ConsumptionU.S. Oyster Consumption
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Pou
nds
Per
Cap
ita
(Edi
ble
Wt.
)
U.S. Oyster MarketU.S. Oyster MarketReported U.S. per capita consumption .20 lbsReported U.S. per capita consumption .20 lbs
2002 ex-farm value of $53.5 million2002 ex-farm value of $53.5 million
Consumption likely under-reportedConsumption likely under-reported
15% of consumers eat 85% of total*15% of consumers eat 85% of total*
Average consumer 18-49 male in coastal area*Average consumer 18-49 male in coastal area*
10% drop in price raised demand by 25%*10% drop in price raised demand by 25%*
*University of Florida consumer survey 2001
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U.S. Clam ConsumptionU.S. Clam Consumption
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Pounds Per Capita (Edible Weight)
U.S. Clam MarketU.S. Clam Market
Total U.S. consumption of 156 millionTotal U.S. consumption of 156 millionpounds (edible weight) in 2003pounds (edible weight) in 2003
2002 reported cultured production of 102002 reported cultured production of 10million pounds (meat weight)million pounds (meat weight)
Reported ex-farm value of $10 millionReported ex-farm value of $10 million
Cultured geoduck a high-value exportCultured geoduck a high-value export
U.S. Scallop ConsumptionU.S. Scallop Consumption
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: NMFS
Pounds Per Capita – Edible Wt.
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Some Fearless ForecastsSome Fearless Forecastsfor Shellfish Growersfor Shellfish Growers
Demand for oysters, mussels, clams and scallopsDemand for oysters, mussels, clams and scallopswill growwill grow
Technology applied to shellfish safety willTechnology applied to shellfish safety willmitigate trade/consumer fearsmitigate trade/consumer fears
Retail products will need to be case readyRetail products will need to be case ready
Central processing facilities need to achieveCentral processing facilities need to achieveeconomies of scaleeconomies of scale
Contract growersContract growers
Co-op processing/marketingCo-op processing/marketing
ConclusionsConclusions
Strong demand for seafood in generalStrong demand for seafood in generalshould help mollusksshould help mollusks
Mollusks are undermarketedMollusks are undermarketed
Need new trial among younger populationNeed new trial among younger population
Niche markets, niche products (value-Niche markets, niche products (value-added) neededadded) needed
Alaska Shellfish AquacultureAlaska Shellfish AquacultureAdvantages/OpportunitiesAdvantages/Opportunities
Greater siting opportunities than lower 48• Unpolluted
• Fewer “view” issues
Utilization of processing infrastructure
Sales synergy with established companies
Capitalize on “Alaska” and local branding
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Alaska Shellfish AquacultureAlaska Shellfish AquacultureAdvantages/OpportunitiesAdvantages/Opportunities
Development of contract growing, co-op orintegrated models
Small-scale “family” businesses
Become world leader in red crab culture
Proximity to Asia via air cargo
Alaska Shellfish MarketingAlaska Shellfish MarketingOpportunitiesOpportunities
Local marketsLocal markets
National marketsNational markets
Niche marketsNiche markets
Export marketsExport markets
Take market shareTake market sharefrom Canadafrom Canada
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Market Studies on the NetMarket Studies on the Net
New Brunswick Oyster Aquaculture Industry MarketNew Brunswick Oyster Aquaculture Industry MarketStudyStudy www.acoa.ca/e/library/reports/Shellfish/shellfish.pdf
Marketing Opportunities for Pacific Oysters Marketing Opportunities for Pacific Oysters –– PCSGA PCSGAStudy Study www.ams.usda.gov/tmd/FSMIP/FY2000/WA0300.pdfwww.ams.usda.gov/tmd/FSMIP/FY2000/WA0300.pdf
Clams Market Research Focus Group ReportClams Market Research Focus Group Report
www.fl-seafood.com/industry/reports/clams_rep9-16.pdfwww.fl-seafood.com/industry/reports/clams_rep9-16.pdf
Thank youThank you