howard rosenbaum [email protected] school of library and information science center for social...

Howard Rosenbaum [email protected]

School of Library and Information Science Center for Social Informatics

Indiana University

November 9, 2000

http://www.slis.indiana.edu/hrosenba/www/Pres/ilfref00/

Indiana Library Federation Reference Division Fall Conference

Reference 2001:The world, the web, and the milky way

http://slis.lib.indiana.edu/hrosenba/www/Papers/asis99.html











ILF Reference Division Fall Conference 2000

Rosenbaum: The web for the next millennium

I. Where we have been

• What the wizards who stayed up late wrought

• Four stages of the net

II. Where we are now

• The current state of networking

• An archeology of the web

III. Where we are going

• Technical changes

• Social changes

• Libraries - the next generation





1969

Four nodes on the “ARPA NETWORK”

University of California Los Angeles

University of California Santa Barbara

University of Utah

Stanford Research Institute

http://www.cybergeography.org/atlas/historical.html



ARPANET 1971


Reaches coast to coast

Links researchers at universities with strong computer science departments

Primary use is R&D



Milestones

1969: First packets sent by Charley Kline at UCLA as he tried logging into SRI

This attempt crashed the system as the letter G of LOGIN was entered. (10/29)

1970: First cross-country link installed by AT&T between UCLA and BBN at 56kbps

1973: First trans-oceanic link to the UK

1975: The first mailing list

1976: First email sent by royalty: Queen Elizabeth II

1979: USENET created

First MUD goes online

Kevin MacKenzie uses :) in email



ARPANET 1980


DARPA’s decisions to make TCP/IP open source and require it to connect greatly increased the number of networks on ARPANET



Milestones

1981: BITNET created

1983: Name server developed at U of Wisconsin

ARPANET split into ARPANET and MILNET

1984: Domain Name System (DNS) introduced

Number of hosts breaks 1,000

JUNET, JANET established (Japan, UK)

1986: NSFNET created (backbone speed of 56Kbps)

Cleveland Freenet comes on-line 10/16

1988: William Morris’s worm shuts down 10% of the net

Internet Relay Chat (IRC) developed by Jarkko Oikarinen



Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the generic components of the web in 1989

http://www.w3.org/History/1989/proposal.html



Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the basic architecture of the web in 1989

http://www.w3.org/History/1989/proposal.html



Milestones

1989: Number of hosts breaks 100,000

First relays between commercial networks and the net: MCI Mail through the Corporation for the National Research Initiative and Compuserve through OSU

1990 ARPANET is decommissioned

Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) is founded

Archie, Hytelnet released

1991: WAIS, Gopher, PGP released

NSFNET backbone upgraded to T3 (44.736Mbps)

1992: Number of hosts breaks 1,000,000

First MBONE audio multicast (March) and video multicast (November)



Donna Cox and Robert Patterson’s NCSA Visualization Study of the NSFNET in 1991

http://www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/SCMS/DigLib/text/technology/Visualization-Study-NSFNET-Cox.html



John December’s view of the internet in 1992

http://www.cybergeography.org/atlas/conceptual.html



Milestones:

1993: White House is on-line: www.whitehouse.gov/

Mosaic released

Gopher's growth is 997%

WWW annual growth rate is 341,634%

1994: First shopping malls on the net

First Virtual, the first cyberbank, opens

Top 10 domains: com, edu, uk, gov, de, ca, mil, au, org, net

1995: NSFNET reverts to a research network

Main US backbone traffic routed through commercial network providers

Sun launches JAVA on 5/23



Stephen G. Eick and colleagues at Bell Laboratories: Visualization and analysis of Internet traffic flows 1993

http://www.cybergeography.org/atlas/geographic.html



Milestones

1995: RealAudio lets us hear the web

Netscape’s IPO

1996: Browsers wars: new releases are made quarterly

Restrictions on net use around the world

1997: Domain name “business.com” sold for US$150,000

1998: Network Solutions registers 2 millionth domain - 5/4

CDA II and a ban on Net taxes signed into US law

1999: First Internet Bank of Indiana, opens on 2/22

Internet2 development speeds up

Abilene NOC at IUPUI



Libraries and the net

St. Joseph County Public Library is the first US public library on the Web; the 2nd worldwide - 3/14/94

http://www.sjcpl.lib.in.us/

There are 797 libraries on the St. Joseph County Public Library list of library web servers

http://sjcpl.lib.in.us/PublicLibraries/PubLibSrvsGpherWWW.html#wwwsrv

GoMLink, the 1st Virtual WWW Library on the net (2/1993) using gopher software,

http://mlink.lib.umich.edu

The Internet Public Library - 1st Virtual WWW Public Library on the net

http://ipl.sils.umich.edu/index.text.html




Stage 1: Research and development

From the mid 1960s until ~1987

Primary users: academic and government researchers

It was a command line internet

Stage 2: Public access

From 1987-1992

Commercial networks, freenets access the net through gateways

The wired public explores the net



Stage 3: Growth of the web

From 1992-1995

Development of HTTP ansd release of a graphical browser (Mosaic)

Netscape, AOL, and Microsoft lay the groundwork for a public internet

Stage 4: The net goes to work and suffers growing pains

From 1995-

The ecommerce land grab and shakeout

Governmental attention

The beginnings of the pervasive net?











• Social changes






World total 377.65 million

Africa 3.10 million

Asia/Pacific 89.68 million

Europe 105.89 million

Middle East 2.40 million

Canada/USA161.31 million

Latin America 15.26 million

http://www.nua.ie/surveys/how_many_online/index.html



1999 Growth/day

World population 5,996,708,634 213,88

Web pages 1,500,000,000 1,917,808

Web access devices 221,100,000 147,671

Hosts 72,398,092 79,913

Domain names 8,100,000 12,981

Unique web sites 3,649,000 4,442

http://www.thestandard.com/powerpoint/030600met5_theweb2.ppt

The rate of growth has not slowed appreciably



The world-wide wait

An estimated 2.5 billion hours were wasted online in 1998 as people waited for pages to download

Estimated $2 billion lost revenues due to abandoned transactions

The global net

Over 50% of the online community is outside the US

English text will not be understood by 35% of all users online todayhttp://www.internetindicators.com/global.html

Some 1.5 million pages added to the web each day

50% of all traffic goes to the top 900 Web siteshttp://www.internetvalley.com/intvalstat.html



http://www.thestandard.com/powerpoint/030600met5_theweb2.ppt

More...



98% of the words in Webster's English Dictionary have been registered as domain nameshttp://new-website.openmarket.com/intindex/00-06.htm

The publicly indexable web is estimated at 800 million pages, 6 terabytes of text data on 2.8 million servers 2/99 (Lawrence and Giles, 1999)

Search engine coverage as a percentage of 800 million pages:

Northern Light 16.0%

AltaVista 15.5%

Snap 15.5%,

HotBot 11.3%

MSN Search 8.5%

Infoseek 8.0%

Google 7.8%

Yahoo 7.4%

Excite 5.6%

Lycos 2.5%

EuroSeek 2.2%

http://www.notess.com/search/stats/nature99.shtml



Growth of the web: 18,000,000 web sites June 2000

http://www.isoc.org/zakon/Internet/History/HIT.html



http://www.ntia.doc.gov/ntiahome/fttn99/charts.html

% of U.S. Persons using the net at home by type of use



http://www.emarketer.com/estats/061499_kids.html

Kids on the net



Bertot and McClure’s 2000 Internet Connectivity Study

Internet connectivity in public libraries is 95.7%, up from 83.6% in 1998

94.5% of public libraries provide public net access

36.2% have T1 (1.45mbps) service for public access services, up from 21.9% in 1998

53.6% have > 56kbps (direct connect) service for public access services, up from 33.7% in 1998

35.4% of rural outlets have > 56kbps (direct connect) service public access services up from 22.2% in 1998

http://www.nclis.gov/news/pr2000/plis2000.html http://www.nclis.gov/statsurv/2000plo.pdf




The web can be divided into four distinct (but overlapping) regions

Commerceweb

Personalweb

Educationweb

Governmentweb



Personalweb

There are an estimated 400 million personal home pages

Governmentweb

The Federal and state governments want to move more of its services online

Educationweb

The net is becoming a routine part of primary and secondary education

Higher education is being transformed

Wireless campuses

Librarianship is undergoing drastic changes (throughout all types of libraries)



Commerceweb

Infrastructure layer

Telecom companies, ISPs, backbone carriers, “last mile” companies and manufacturers of end-user networking equipment

Generated over $197 billion in revenue in 1999, an increase of 68% over 1998.

Applications Infrastructure layer

Companies producing software products and services enabling web transactions and transaction intermediaries

Consultants and companies that design, build and maintain all types of Web sites

Grew 41% in 1999, generating just over $101 billion



Intermediary layer

Web-based businesses generating revenues through advertising, membership or subscription fees, and commissions

Pure-play Web content providers, market makers, and market intermediaries (travel brokers, advertising companies)

Revenues increased 52%in 1999 to $96.81 billion

Commerce layer

Companies conducting web-based business transactions

Fastest-growing layer turning in a 72% increase in 1999, generating over $171 billion in revenues

http://www.internetindicators.com/the_indicators_june_00.htm











• Social changes






Broadband and digital convergence

High speed access is more accessible to more people

Resolving the “last-mile problem” with cable modems, DSL, wireless

Development of new classes of wired devices

PDAs, handheld computing, ebooks

Cell phones with web access

Information appliances

Continuing development of standards

XHTML, XML, RDF, XQL



Continued development of basic web architecture

Rise of the “semantic” web

Developing “languages for expressing information in a machine processable form”

The web as a global database (Berners Lee)

http://www.w3.org/DesignIssues/Semantic.html

Moving services and applications to the web

ASPs provide centralized, web-based business services

Individuals move more activities to the web

Web-based email, calendars, personal files

Rise of peer-to-peer networking

Sharing a wide variety of files



Development of hardware and software that will allow a more immersive web experience

New forms of interactive, multi-user entertainment

Real time chatting, video, collaborative space

Use of intelligent personal agents to handle web activities (searching, bargaining, buying, security)

“The next stage of Web technical standards … enables computers to talk to each other, so that they do routine and repetitive work involved in everything from homework to shopping. And that leaves people with more time and energy for doing the more creative tasks. The Web ...has the capacity to become a much more intelligent information infrastructure.” Berners Lee

http://interactiveu.berkeley.edu:8000/iunews/discuss/msgReader$137



• Social changes and trends

Education

Becoming a part of primary and secondary education

This will spur intense debates about its value

More courses in higher education will move to the web

Campuses will become increasingly wireless

The corporate training market will explode

Work

Workers are always available and online

Work roles will be redefined and will expand

This will blur the line between work and personal lives



Business

The new economy rediscovers rules of the old economy

The dotcom shakeout: profitability matters!

We will find out which types of business can work on the web

Demographic

Coming soon: a generation of digital kids

We dinosaurs will soon be scooting around in wheelchairs with wireless net access

Cultural

Internationalism and a multilingual web

Local emphasis with a global reach



Problems and challenges

Improving the accessibility of the web

Reducing the digital divide

Protecting the privacy of web users

Providing adequate security for all web users

Developing an equitable legal and regulatory framework for the web

Protecting digital intellectual property

Developing equitable ways to assert information ownership



• Future of libraries

What does this mean for libraries and reference work?

Expectations will change

Library services should be offered in synchronous and asynchronous modes with rapid turnaround

There will be much more data sharing of all types of digital information

Libraries will be expected to deliver information in a wide range of formats

Librarians will have to be familiar with a wide range of technologies used to access, create, manipulate, store, and disseminate digital information

All libraries will become digital libraries



Reference librarians can expect to experience stasis and change in their work

The difficulty is in figuring out what will change

For convenience, consider the level of

Day-to-day work

Administration and bureaucracy activities

Organizational and institutional structures and processes

Professional roles and responsibilities



This will not change:

Librarians will continue to ensure that carriers of recorded knowledge and information of all kinds are acquired, organized, made accessible, circulated and preserved



Reference work will be done for increasing numbers of remote users

The reference interview will become more difficult

Reference answers will be delivered in a variety of ways

Email, web, wireless to PDAs and cell phones

Reference work will require that librarians become expert web searchers

Awareness of niche engines

Librarians will develop and manage curated databases for reference use

All librarians will become digital librarians



Librarians will be expected to be arbiters of the web

You will have to develop acceptable resolutions to the problem of the quality of digital information

One path will be the moderated collection of links and pages (the library’s web)

Another path will be policies and procedures for answering questions about information found by patrons

Image by Animal Logic



Image by Artem Visual Effects

Librarians will be expected to be expert web searchers

This will require staying current with ongoing developments in search engines

Understanding which engines to use for different types of searches



Day-to-day work

The evaluation and original cataloging of digital resources

What is the set of criteria that will be used to select and catalog digital materials?

Organizing electronic information

Cataloging & creating links to web sites

User demands for customized information

Increasing demand for electronic access to full-text resources

Ergonomic issues

Telecommuting



Automation of reference workflow

Utilization of web-based options for acquiring and accessing digital resources

Electronic transmission and posting of data

Invoices, claiming, orders, adding local and national holdings, integration of reference information with databases

Reliance on web resources for reference assistance, e.g., foreign language dictionaries

Maintenance of reference resources on the library’s web



You will need to become masters and mistresses of the online environment

You will find effective ways of managing online resources

One goal will be to provide permanent and easy access to these resources

Developing stable and reliable means of preserving digital material will be essential

You will offer service to off-site clients, and access to materials we do not physically hold

You may become deeply involved in providing of one- to-one information services

You will be managing large and complex database driven websites



Howard Rosenbaum [email protected]

http://www.slis.indiana.edu/hrosenba/www/Pres/ilfref00/

howard rosenbaum [email protected] school of library and information science center for social...

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