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How Old is Too Old? A Look at Aging Transmission Pipeline Infrastructure Issues
Aging Infrastructure – How big of a deal is it?
How old are Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines? Average mile is about 50 years old.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Installed pre 1940 or unknown
Installed 1940-‐1949
Installed 1950-‐1959
Installed 1960-‐1969
Installed 1970-‐1979
Installed 1980-‐1989
Installed 1990-‐1999
Installed 2000-‐2009
Installed 2010-‐present
Miles
Na)onwide Onshore Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines Year Installed
Source -‐ PHMSA 2015 Annual Data as of 10/1/15
What PHMSA Data Tells Us about Incident Rates for Gas Transmission Pipelines
6.081
3.164
1.957 1.851 1.989
1.303
0.853
1.289
6.640
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
UNK & PRE-‐1940s
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
# INCIDENTS per 10,000 MILES OF ONSHORE GAS TRANSMISSION PIPELINE BY DECADE OF PIPE INSTALLED (AVG of ANNUAL INCIDENTS 2005-‐2013)
The Bathtub Curve
Reliability specialists oYen describe the lifeZme of a populaZon of products using a graphical representaZon called the bathtub curve.
So while the Bathtub Curve may be the norm from a theoreZcal reliability engineering standpoint – Does it have to be that way if companies are really commi[ed to zero incidents?
How old are Natural Gas DistribuZon Pipelines? Average mile is about 40 years old.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Installed pre 1940 or unknown
Installed 1940-‐1949
Installed 1950-‐1959
Installed 1960-‐1969
Installed 1970-‐1979
Installed 1980-‐1989
Installed 1990-‐1999
Installed 2000-‐2009
Installed 2010-‐present
Na)onwide Natural Gas Distribu)on (Main) Pipelines Year Installed
Source -‐ PHMSA 2015 Annual Data as of 10/30/15
What PHMSA Data Tells Us about Incident Rates for Gas DistribuZon Pipelines
0.751
0.686
0.505
0.297 0.289 0.323
0.149
0.262
0.850
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
UNK & PRE-‐1940s
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
# INCIDENTS per 10,000 MILES OF GAS DISTRIBUTION MAIN PIPELINE BY DECADE OF PIPE INSTALLED (AVG of ANNUAL INCIDENTS 2005-‐2014)
How old are Hazardous Liquid Pipelines? Average mile is 40-‐45 years old
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Miles
Na)onwide Hazardous Liquid Pipelines -‐ Year Installed Source -‐ PHMSA Annual Data as of 9/1/15
8.712
4.269
5.227 5.239 5.219
4.029 4.575
4.162
6.484
13.543
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
# INCIDENTS per 10,000 MILES OF HL PIPELINE BY DECADE OF PIPE INSTALLED (AVG of ANNUAL INCIDENTS 2005-‐2013)
What PHMSA Data Tells Us about Incident Rates for Hazardous Liquid Pipelines
Causes of all Hazardous Liquid Incidents 2010-‐2015
86.7% of failures within an operator’s control
Causes of all Hazardous Liquid Incidents 2010-‐2015 on pipeline installed before 1950
49%
11%
6%
21%
4%
7% 2%
Before 1950 Installa)on
CORROSION FAILURE
EXCAVATION DAMAGE
INCORRECT OPERATION
MATERIAL/ WELD/ EQUIPMENT FAILURE
NATURAL FORCE DAMAGE
OTHER INCIDENT CAUSE
OTHER OUTSIDE FORCE DAMAGE
76% of failures within an operator’s control
Causes of all Hazardous Liquid Incidents 2010-‐2015 on pipeline installed aYer 2009
5% 1%
22%
61%
4% 7% 0%
2010 -‐ 2015 Installa)on
CORROSION FAILURE
EXCAVATION DAMAGE
INCORRECT OPERATION
MATERIAL/ WELD/ EQUIPMENT FAILURE NATURAL FORCE DAMAGE
OTHER INCIDENT CAUSE
OTHER OUTSIDE FORCE DAMAGE
88% of failures within an operator’s control
What do the regulaZons say about aging pipelines
The federal regulaZons on gas pipelines do not menZon the word “age”.
The regulaZons for hazardous liquid pipelines do take age into consideraZon for determining the prioriZzaZon of assessments, but there are no real requirements that relate to age.
Appendix C to Part 195—Guidance for Implementa)on of an Integrity Management Program
The Big QuesZon Without clear regulatory criteria for replacement are we facing a growing incident rate as thousands of miles of pipelines built before 1970 gets older?
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Miles
Na)onwide Onshore Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines Year Installed
Source -‐ PHMSA 2015 Annual Data as of 10/1/15
6.081
3.164
1.957 1.851 1.989 1.303
0.853 1.289
6.640
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000 # INCIDENTS per 10,000 MILES OF ONSHORE GAS TRANSMISSION PIPELINE BY DECADE OF PIPE INSTALLED
(AVG of ANNUAL INCIDENTS 2005-‐2013)
