HARRY POTTER AND THE

METHODS OFRATIONALITY

by Eliezer Yudkowsky

chapters 1122 plus omake files 14

Based on the characters of

J. K. ROWLING

and her books:

Harry Potter and the Sorcerers StoneYear One at Hogwarts

Harry Potter and the Chamber of SecretsYear Two at Hogwarts

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of AzkabanYear Three at Hogwarts

Harry Potter and the Goblet of FireYear Four at Hogwarts

Harry Potter and the Order of the PhoenixYear Five at Hogwarts

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood PrinceYear Six at Hogwarts

Harry Potter and the Deathly HallowsYear Seven at Hogwarts

HARRY POTTERAND THE METHODS OF RATIONALITY

BY

ELIEZER YUDKOWSKY

Find the original text at:http://hpmor.com

CONTENTSONE

A Day of Very Low Probability 1

TWOEverything I Believe Is False 9

THREEComparing Reality To Its Alternatives 15

FOURThe Efficient Market Hypothesis 21

FIVEThe Fundamental Attribution Error 27

SIXThe Planning Fallacy 37

SEVENReciprocation 67

EIGHTPositive Bias 97

NINESelf Awareness, part i 113

TENSelf Awareness, part ii 121

TWELVEImpulse Control 133

THIRTEENAsking theWrong Questions 145

FOURTEENThe Unknown and the Unknowable 167

FIFTEENConscientiousness 183

SIXTEENLateral Thinking 195

SEVENTEENLocating the Hypothesis 215

EIGHTEENDominance Hierarchies 253

NINETEENDelayed Gratification 281

TWENTYBayess Theorem 305

TWENTY-ONERationalization 323

TWENTY-TWOThe Scientific Method 343

TWENTY-THREEBelief in Belief 369

TWENTY-FOURMachiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis 389

TWENTY-FIVEHold Off on Proposing Solutions 403

TWENTY-SIXNoticing Confusion 421

TWENTY-SEVENEmpathy 441

TWENTY-EIGHTReductionism 469

TWENTY-NINEEgocentric Bias 493

THIRTYWorking in Groups, part i511

THIRTY-ONEWorking in Groups, part ii535

THIRTY-TWOInterlude: Personal Financial Management 539

THIRTY-THREECoordination Problems, part i545

THIRTY-FOURCoordination Problems, part iii575

THIRTY-FIVECoordination Problems, part iii589

THIRTY-SIXStatus Differentials 603

THIRTY-SEVENInterlude: Crossing the Boundary 617

THIRTY-EIGHTThe Cardinal Sin 621

THIRTY-NINEPretending to beWise, part i631

FORTYPretending to beWise, part ii653

FORTY-ONEFrontal Override 659

FORTY-TWOCourage 667

FORTY-THREEHumanism, part i677

FORTY-FOURHumanism, part ii699

FORTY-FIVEHumanism, part iii 705

FORTY-SIXHumanism, part iv 717

FORTY-SEVENPersonhood Theory 731

FORTY-EIGHTUtilitarian Priorities 765

FORTY-NINEPrior Information 775

FIFTYSelf Centeredness 789

FIFTY-ONEThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part i801

FIFTY-TWOThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part ii811

FIFTY-THREEThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part iii823

FIFTY-FOURThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part iv827

FIFTY-FIVEThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part v845

FIFTY-SIXtspe, part vi: Constrained Optimization 865

FIFTY-SEVENtspe, part vii: Constrained Cognition 877

FIFTY-EIGHTtspe, part viii: Constrained Cognition 891

FIFTY-NINEtspe, part ix: Curiosity 905

SIXTYThe Stanford Prison Experiment, part x919

SIXTY-ONEtspe, part xi: Secrecy and Openness 931

SIXTY-TWOThe Stanford Prison Experiment, Final 949

SIXTY-THREEThe Stanford Prison Experiment, Aftermaths 965

SIXTY-FIVEContagious Lies 1009

SIXTY-SIXSelf Actualization, part i 1023

SIXTY-SEVENSelf Actualization, part ii 1029

SIXTY-EIGHTSelf Actualization, part iii 1041

SIXTY-NINESelf Actualization, part iv 1055

SEVENTYSelf Actualization, part v 1067

SEVENTY-ONESelf Actualization, part vi 1083

SEVENTY-TWOsa, part vii: Plausible Deniability 1097

SEVENTY-THREEsa, part viii: The Sacred and the Mundane 1123

SEVENTY-FOURsa, part ix: Escalation of Conflicts 1139

SEVENTY-FIVEsa, part x: Responsibility 1167

SEVENTY-SIXSelf-Actualization, Aftermaths: Surface Appearances 1185

SEVENTY-SEVENInterlude with the Confessor: Sunk Costs 1215

SEVENTY-EIGHTTaboo Tradeoffs Prelude: Cheating 1223

SEVENTY-NINETaboo Tradeoffs, part i 1271

EIGHTYtaboo tradeoffs, part ii: The Horns Effect 1295

EIGHTY-ONETaboo Tradeoffs, part iii 1313

EIGHTY-TWOTaboo Tradeoffs, part final 1329

EIGHTY-THREETaboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath, part i 1341

EIGHTY-FOURTaboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath, part ii 1345

EIGHTY-FIVEtaboo tradeoffs, aftermath, part iii: Distance 1375

EIGHTY-SIXMultiple Hypothesis Testing 1393

EIGHTY-SEVENHedonic Awareness 1453

EIGHTY-EIGHTTime Pressure, part i 1471

EIGHTY-NINETime Pressure, part ii 1489

NINETYRoles, part i 1499

NINETY-ONERoles, part ii 1515

NINETY-TWORoles, part iii 1529

NINETY-THREERoles, part iv 1537

NINETY-FOURRoles, part v 1549

NINETY-FIVERoles, part vi 1561

NINETY-SIXRoles, part vii 1573

NINETY-SEVENRoles, part viii 1585

NINETY-EIGHTRoles, Final 1603

NINETY-NINERoles, Aftermath 1613

ONE HUNDREDPrecautionary Measures, part i 1615

ONE HUNDRED AND ONEPrecautionary Measures, part ii 1633

ONE HUNDRED AND TWOCaring 1643

ONE HUNDRED AND THREETests 1655

ONE HUNDRED AND FOURthe truth, part i: Riddles and Answers 1663

ONE HUNDRED AND FIVEThe Truth, part ii 1693

ONE HUNDRED AND SIXThe Truth, part iii 1703

ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENThe Truth, part iv 1709

ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTthe truth, part v: Answers and Riddles 1721

ONE HUNDRED AND NINEReflections 1759

ONE HUNDRED AND TENReflections, part ii 1775

ONE HUNDRED AND ELEVENFailure, part i 1781

ONE HUNDRED AND TWELVEFailure, part ii 1805

ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTEENFinal Exam 1809

ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTEENShut Up and Do The Impossible 1817

ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTEENShut Up and Do The Impossible, part ii 1823

ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTEENAftermath, Something to Protect, part 0 1833

ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTEENSomething to Protect: Minerva McGonagall 1841

ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTEENSomething to Protect: Professor Quirrell 1849

ONE HUNDRED AND NINETEENSomething to Protect: Albus Dumbledore 1853

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTYSomething to Protect: Draco Malfoy 1881

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-ONESomething to Protect: Severus Snape 1889

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-TWOSomething to Protect: Hermione Granger 1895

Appendix ADisclaimers and Epigraphs 1927

Appendix BOmake Files I, II & III 1933

Appendix COmake Files IV, Alternate Parallels 1945

Appendix DFinal Exam 1963

[...A] terrific series, subtle and dramatic andstimulating.

David Brin

Oh Thoth Trismegistus, oh Maat, oh Ganesha,oh sweet lady Eris I have not laughed so hardin years!

Eric S. Raymond

CHAPTER ONE

A DAY OF VERY LOWPROBABILITY

Every inch ofwall space is covered by a bookcase. Each bookcase has sixshelves, going almost to the ceiling. Some bookshelves are stackedto the brimwith hardback books: science,maths, history, and everythingelse. Other shelves have two layers of paperback science fiction, with theback layer of books propped up on old tissue boxes or lengths of wood,so that you can see the back layer of books above the books in front. Andit still isnt enough. Books are overflowing onto the tables and the sofasandmaking little heaps under the windows.

This is the living-room of the house occupied by the eminent Profes-sor Michael Verres-Evans, and his wife, Mrs. Petunia Evans-Verres, andtheir adopted son, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres.

There is a letter lying on the living-room table, and an unstampedenvelope of yellowish parchment, addressed to Mr. H. Potter in emerald-green ink.

TheProfessor andhiswife are speaking sharply at eachother, but theyare not shouting. The Professor considers shouting to be uncivilised.

Youre joking, Michael said to Petunia. His tone indicated that hewas very much afraid that she was serious.

My sister was a witch, Petunia repeated. She looked frightened, butstood her ground. Her husband was a wizard.

This is absurd! Michael said sharply. They were at our weddingthey visited for Christmas

* 1 *

*** CHAPTER 1 ***

I told them you werent to know, Petunia whispered. But its true.Ive seen things

The Professor rolled his eyes. Dear, I understand that youre not fa-miliar with the sceptical literature. Youmay not realise how easy it is fora trained magician to fake the seemingly impossible. Remember how Itaught Harry to bend spoons? If it seemed like they could always guesswhat you were thinking, thats called cold reading

It wasnt bending spoonsWhat was it, then?Petunia bit her lip. I cant just tell you. Youll think Im She swal-

lowed. Listen. Michael. I wasntalways like this She gestured atherself, as though to indicate her lithe form. Lily did this. Because Ibecause I begged her. For years, I begged her. Lily had always been pret-tier than me, and Id been mean to her, because of that, and then shegot magic, can you imagine how I felt? And I begged her to use some ofthat magic on me so that I could be pretty too, even if I couldnt have hermagic, at least I could be pretty.

Tears were gathering in Petunias eyes.And Lily would tell me no, andmake up the most ridiculous excuses,

like the world would end if she were nice to her sister, or a centaur toldher not tothemost ridiculous things, and I hated her for it. Andwhen Ihad just graduated fromuniversity, Iwas going outwith this boy, VernonDursley, hewas fat and hewas the only boywhowould talk tome. And hesaid he wanted children, and that his first son would be named Dudley.And I thought tomyself,what kind of parent names their childDudleyDursley?It was like I sawmy whole future life stretching out in front of me, and Icouldnt stand it. And I wrote to my sister and told her that if she didnthelp me Id rather just

Petunia stopped.Anyway, Petunia said, her voice small, she gave in. She told me it

was dangerous, and I said I didnt care anymore, and I drank this potionand I was sick for weeks, but when I got better my skin cleared up and Ifinally filled out and I was beautiful, people were nice to me, her voicebroke, and after that I couldnt hatemy sister anymore, especially whenI learned what her magic brought her in the end

* 2 *

*** A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY ***

Darling, Michael said gently, you got sick, you gained someweightwhile resting in bed, and your skin cleared up on its own. Or being sickmade you change your diet

She was a witch, Petunia repeated. I saw it.Petunia, Michael said. The annoyance was creeping into his voice.

You know that cant be true. Do I really have to explain why?Petuniawrungher hands. She seemed to be on the verge of tears. My

love, I know I cant win arguments with you, but please, you have to trustme on this

Dad! Mum!The two of them stopped and looked atHarry as though theyd forgot-

ten there was a third person in the room.Harry took a deep breath. Mum, your parents didnt have magic, did

they?No, Petunia said, looking puzzled.Thennoone in your family knewaboutmagicwhenLily gother letter.

How did they get convinced?Ah Petunia said. They didnt just send a letter. They sent a profes-

sor fromHogwarts. He Petunias eyes flicked toMichael. He showedus somemagic.

Then you dont have to fight over this, Harry said firmly. Hopingagainst hope that this time, just this once, they would listen to him. Ifits true, we can just get a Hogwarts professor here and see the magic forourselves, and Dad will admit that its true. And if not, then Mum willadmit that its false. Thats what the experimental method is for, so thatwe dont have to resolve things just by arguing.

The Professor turned and looked down at him, dismissive as usual.Oh, come now, Harry. Really, magic? I thought youd know better thanto take this seriously, son, even if youre only ten. Magic is just about themost unscientific thing there is!

Harrys mouth twisted bitterly. He was treated well, probably betterthan most genetic fathers treated their own children. Harry had beensent to the best primary schoolsand when that didnt work out, he wasprovided with tutors from the endless pool of starving students. AlwaysHarry had been encouraged to study whatever caught his attention,

* 3 *

*** CHAPTER 1 ***

bought all the books that caught his fancy, sponsored in whatever mathsor science competitions he entered. He was given anything reasonablethat he wanted, except, maybe, the slightest shred of respect. A Doctorteaching biochemistry at Oxford could hardly be expected to listen to theadvice of a little boy. You would listen to Show Interest, of course; thatswhat a Good Parent would do, and so, if you conceived of yourself as aGood Parent, you would do it. But take a ten-year-old seriously? Hardly.

Sometimes Harry wanted to scream at his father.Mum, Harry said. If you want to win this argument with Dad,

look in chapter two of the first book of the Feynman Lectures on Physics.Theres a quote there about how philosophers say a great deal about whatscience absolutely requires, and it is all wrong, because the only rule inscience is that the final arbiter is observationthat you just have to lookat the world and report what you see. Um off the top of my head I cantthink of where to find something about how its an ideal of science tosettle things by experiment instead of arguments

His mother looked down at him and smiled. Thank you, Harry.But her head rose back up to stare at her husband. I dont want towin an argument with your father. I want my husband to, to listen to hiswife who loves him, and trust her just this once

Harry closed his eyes briefly. Hopeless. Both of his parents were justhopeless.

Now his parents were getting into one of those arguments again, onewhere his mother tried to make his father feel guilty, and his father triedto make his mother feel stupid.

Im going to go tomy room, Harry announced. His voice trembled alittle. Please try not to fight too much about this, Mum, Dad, well knowsoon enough how it comes out, right?

Of course, Harry, said his father, and hismother gave him a reassur-ing kiss, and then theywent on fightingwhileHarry climbed the stairs tohis bedroom.

He shut the door behind him and tried to think.The funny thingwas, he shouldhave agreedwithDad. Noonehad ever

seen any evidence of magic, and according to Mum, there was a whole

* 4 *

*** A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY ***

magical world out there. How could anyone keep something like that asecret? More magic? That seemed like a rather suspicious sort of excuse.

It shouldhavebeena clean case forMum joking, lyingor being insane,in ascending order of awfulness. If Mum had sent the letter herself, thatwould explain how it arrived at the letterbox without a stamp. A littleinsanitywas far, far less improbable than the universe really working likethat.

Except that some part of Harry was utterly convinced that magic wasreal, and had been since the instant he saw the putative letter from theHogwarts School of Witchcraft andWizardry.

Harry rubbed his forehead, grimacing. Dont believe everything youthink, one of his books had said.

But this bizarre certainty Harry was finding himself just expectingthat, yes, a Hogwarts professor would show up and wave a wand andmagic would come out. The strange certainty was making no effort toguard itself against falsificationwasnt making excuses in advance forwhy there wouldnt be a professor, or the professor would only be able tobend spoons.

Where do you come from, strange little prediction? Harry directed thethought at his brain. Why do I believe what I believe?

Usually Harry was pretty good at answering that question, but in thisparticular case, he had no cluewhat his brain was thinking.

Harrymentally shrugged. A flatmetal plate onadoor affordspushing,and a handle on a door affords pulling, and the thing to dowith a testablehypothesis is to go and test it.

He took a piece of lined paper from his desk, and started writing.

Dear Deputy Headmistress

Harry paused, reflecting; then discarded the paper for another, tap-ping another millimetre of graphite from his mechanical pencil. Thiscalled for careful calligraphy.

Dear Deputy Headmistress Minerva McGonagall,

* 5 *

*** CHAPTER 1 ***

OrWhomsoever It May Concern:I recently received your letter of acceptance to Hogwarts, addressed to

Mr. H. Potter. You may not be aware that my genetic parents, James Pot-ter and Lily Potter (formerly Lily Evans) are dead. I was adopted by Lilyssister, Petunia Evans-Verres, and her husband, Michael Verres-Evans.

I am extremely interested in attendingHogwarts, conditional on sucha place actually existing. Only my mother Petunia says she knows aboutmagic, and she cant use it herself. My father is highly sceptical. I my-self am uncertain. I also dont know where to obtain any of the books orequipment listed in your acceptance letter.

Mother mentioned that you sent a Hogwarts representative to LilyPotter (then Lily Evans) in order to demonstrate to her family that magicwas real, and, I presume, help Lily obtain her school materials. If youcould do this for my own family it would be extremely helpful.

Sincerely,Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres.

Harry added their current address, then foldedup the letter andput itin an envelope, which he addressed to Hogwarts. Further considerationled him to obtain a candle and dripwax onto the flap of the envelope, intowhich, using a penknifes tip, he impressed the initials H.J.P.E.V. If hewas going to descend into this madness, he was going to do it with style.

Then he opened his door and went back downstairs. His father wassitting in the living-room and reading a book of higher maths to showhow smart he was; and his mother was in the kitchen preparing one ofhis fathers favourite meals to show how loving she was. It didnt looklike they were talking to one another at all. As scary as arguments couldbe, not arguingwas somehowmuch worse.

Mum, Harry said into the unnerving silence, Im going to test thehypothesis. According to your theory, howdo I send anowl toHogwarts?

His mother turned from the kitchen sink to stare at him, lookingshocked. II dont know, I think you just have to own amagic owl.

That shouldve sounded highly suspicious, oh, so theres no way to testyour theory then, but the peculiar certainty inHarry seemedwilling to stickits neck out even further.

* 6 *

*** A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY ***

Well, the letter got here somehow, Harry said, so Ill just wave itaround outside and call letter forHogwarts! and see if an owl picks it up.Dad, do you want to come and watch?

His father shook his head minutely and kept on reading. Of course,Harry thought to himself. Magic was a disgraceful thing that only stupidpeople believed in; if his father went so far as to test the hypothesis, oreven watch it being tested, that would feel like associating himself withthat

Only as Harry stumped out the back door, into the back garden, didit occur to him that if an owl did come down and snatch the letter, he wasgoing to have some trouble telling Dad about it.

Butwellthat cant really happen, can it? Nomatter whatmy brain seemsto believe. If an owl really comes down and grabs this envelope, Im going to haveworries a lot more important than what Dad thinks.

Harry took a deep breath, and raised the envelope into the air.He swallowed.Calling out Letter for Hogwarts! while holding an envelope high in the

air in the middle of your own back garden was actually pretty embar-rassing, now that he thought about it.

No. Im better than Dad. I will use the scientific method even if it makes mefeel stupid.

LetterHarry said, but it actually came out asmore of a whisperedcroak.

Harry steeled his will, and shouted into the empty sky, Letter for Hog-warts! Can I get an owl?

Harry? asked a bemused womans voice, one of the neighbours.Harry pulled downhis hand like itwas on fire andhid the envelope be-

hind his back like it was drugmoney. His whole face was hot with shame.An old womans face peered out from above the neighbouring fence,

grizzled grey hair escaping from her hairnet. Mrs. Figg, the occasionalbabysitter. What are you doing, Harry?

Nothing, Harry said in a strangled voice. Justtesting a really sillytheory

Did you get your acceptance letter fromHogwarts?Harry froze in place.

* 7 *

*** CHAPTER 1 ***

Yes,Harrys lips said a littlewhile later. I got a letter fromHogwarts.They say they want my owl by the 31st of July, but

But you dont have an owl. Poor dear! I cant imagine what someonemust have been thinking, sending you just the standard letter.

Awrinkled armstretchedout over the fence, andopenedanexpectanthand. Hardly even thinking at this point, Harry gave over his envelope.

Just leave it tome, dear, saidMrs. Figg, and in a jiffy or two Ill havesomeone over.

And her face disappeared from over the fence.There was a long silence in the garden.Then a boys voice said, calmly and quietly, What.

* 8 *

CHAPTER TWO

EVERYTHING I BELIEVE ISFALSE

Now, just to be clear, Harry said, if the professor does levitateyou,Dad,whenyouknowyouhavent beenattached to anywires,thats going to be sufficient evidence. Youre not going to turn aroundand say that its a magicians trick. That wouldnt be fair play. If you feelthat way, you should say so now, and we can figure out a different experi-ment instead.

Harrys father, Professor Michael Verres-Evans, rolled his eyes. Yes,Harry.

And you, Mum, your theory says that the professor should be able todo this, and if that doesnt happen, youll admit youremistaken. Nothingabouthowmagicdoesntworkwhenpeople are sceptical of it, or anythinglike that.

DeputyHeadmistressMinervaMcGonagall waswatchingHarrywitha bemused expression. She looked quite witchy in her black robes andpointed hat, but when she spoke she sounded formal and Scottish, whichdidnt go togetherwith the look at all. At first glance she looked like some-one who ought to cackle and put babies into cauldrons, but the wholeeffect was ruined as soon as she opened her mouth. Is that sufficient,Mr. Potter? she said. Shall I go ahead and demonstrate?

Sufficient? Probably not, Harry said. But at least it will help. Goahead, Deputy Headmistress.

Just Professor will do, said she, and then, Wingardium Leviosa.Harry looked at his father.

* 9 *

*** CHAPTER 2 ***

Huh, Harry said.His father looked back at him. Huh, his father echoed.Then Professor Verres-Evans looked back at Professor McGonagall.

All right, you can put me down now.His father was lowered carefully to the ground.Harry ruffled a hand through his own hair. Maybe it was just that

strange part of him which had already been convinced, but Thats a bitof an anticlimax, Harry said. Youd think thered be some kind of moredramatic mental event associated with updating on an observation of in-finitesimal probability Harry stopped himself. Mum, the witch, andeven his Dad were giving him that look again. I mean, with finding outthat everything I believe is false.

Seriously, it shouldhave beenmoredramatic. His brain ought to havebeen flushing its entire current stock of hypotheses about the universe,none of which allowed this to happen. But instead his brain just seemedto be going, All right, I saw the Hogwarts Professor wave her wand and makeyour father rise into the air, now what?

The witch-lady was smiling benevolently upon them, looking quiteamused. Would you like a further demonstration, Mr. Potter?

You dont have to, Harry said. Weve performed a definitive exper-iment. But Harry hesitated. He couldnt help himself. Actually, un-der the circumstances, he shouldnt be helping himself. It was right andproper to be curious. What else can you do?

Professor McGonagall turned into a cat.Harry scrambled back unthinkingly, backpedalling so fast that he

tripped over a stray stack of books and landed hard on his bottom witha thwack. His hands came down to catch himself without quite reachingproperly, and there was a warning twinge in his shoulder as the weightcame down unbraced.

At once the small tabby cat morphed back up into a robed woman.Im sorry, Mr. Potter, said the witch, sounding sincere, though the cor-ners of her lips were twitching upwards. I should have warned you.

Harry was breathing in short gasps. His voice came out choked. Youcant DO that!

* 10 *

*** EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS FALSE ***

Its only a Transfiguration, said Professor McGonagall. An Anima-gus transformation, to be exact.

You turned into a cat! A SMALL cat! You violated Conservation ofEnergy! Thats not just an arbitrary rule, its implied by the form of thequantum Hamiltonian! Rejecting it destroys unitarity and then you getFTL signalling! And cats are COMPLICATED! A humanmind cant just vi-sualise a whole cats anatomy and, and all the cat biochemistry, and whatabout the neurology? How can you go on thinking using a cat-sized brain?

Professor McGonagalls lips were twitching harder now. Magic.Magic isnt enough to do that! Youd have to be a god!Professor McGonagall blinked. Thats the first time Ive ever been

called that.A blur was coming over Harrys vision, as his brain started to compre-

hend what had just broken. The whole idea of a unified universe withmathematically regular laws, that was what had been flushed down thetoilet; the whole notion of physics. Three thousand years of resolving bigcomplicated things into smaller pieces, discovering that themusic of theplanets was the same tune as a falling apple, finding that the true lawswere perfectly universal and had no exceptions anywhere and took theform of simplemaths governing the smallest parts, not tomention that themindwas the brain and the brainwasmade of neurons, a brainwaswhata person was

And then a woman turned into a cat, so much for all that.A hundred questions fought for priority over Harrys lips and the

winner poured out: And, and what kind of incantation is WingardiumLeviosa? Who invents the words to these spells, nursery schoolers?

That will do, Mr. Potter, Professor McGonagall said crisply, thoughher eyes shone with suppressed amusement. If you wish to learn aboutmagic, I suggest thatwe finalise the paperwork so that you can go toHog-warts.

Right, Harry said, somewhat dazed. He pulled his thoughts to-gether. The March of Reason would just have to start over, that was all;they still had the experimental method and that was the important thing.How do I get to Hogwarts, then?

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*** CHAPTER 2 ***

A choked laugh escaped Professor McGonagall, as if extracted fromher by tweezers.

Hold on a moment, Harry, his father said. Remember why youhavent been going to school up until now? What about your condition?

Professor McGonagall spun to face Michael. His condition? Whatsthis?

I dont sleep right, Harry said. He waved his hands helplessly. Mysleep cycle is twenty-six hours long, I always go to sleep two hours later,every day. I cant fall asleep any earlier than that, and then the next day Igo to sleep two hours later than that. 10pm, 12am, 2am, 4am, until it goesaround the clock. Even if I try towakeupearly, itmakesnodifference andIm a wreck that whole day. Thats why I havent been going to a normalschool up until now.

One of the reasons, said his mother. Harry shot her a glare.McGonagall gave a long hmmmmm. I cant recall hearing about such

a condition before she said slowly. Ill check with Madam Pomfrey tosee if she knows any remedies. Then her face brightened. No, Im surethis wont be a problemIll find a solution in time. Now, and her gazesharpened again, what are these other reasons?

Harry sent his parents a glare. I am a conscientious objector to childconscription, on grounds that I should not have to suffer for a disinte-grating school systems failure to provide teachers or study materials ofeven minimally adequate quality.

Both of Harrys parents howled with laughter at that, like theythought it was all a big joke. Oh, said Harrys father, eyes bright, is thatwhy you bit a maths teacher in third year.

She didnt know what a logarithm was!Of course, seconded Harrys mother. Biting her was a very mature

response to that.Harrys father nodded. A well-considered policy for addressing the

problem of teachers who dont understand logarithms.I was seven years old! How long are you going to keep on bringing that

up?I know, said hismother sympathetically, you bite onemaths teacher

and they never let you forget it, do they?

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*** EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS FALSE ***

Harry turned to Professor McGonagall. There! You see what I haveto deal with?

Excuseme, saidPetunia, and fled through the backdoor into the gar-den, from which her screams of laughter were clearly audible.

There, ah, there, Professor McGonagall seemed to be having trou-ble speaking for some reason, there is to be no biting of teachers at Hog-warts, is that quite clear, Mr. Potter?

Harry scowled at her. Fine, I wont bite anyone who doesnt bite mefirst.

Professor Michael Verres-Evans also had to leave the room brieflyupon hearing that.

Well, Professor McGonagall sighed, after Harrys parents had com-posed themselves and returned. Well. I think, under the circumstances,that I should avoid taking you to purchase your study materials until aday or two before school begins.

What? Why? The other children already know magic, dont they? Ihave to start catching up right away!

Rest assured, Mr. Potter, replied Professor McGonagall, Hogwartsis quite capable of teaching the basics. And I suspect, Mr. Potter, thatif I leave you alone for two months with your schoolbooks, even withouta wand, I will return to this house only to find a crater billowing purplesmoke, a depopulated city surrounding it and a plague of flaming zebrasterrorising what remains of England.

Harrys mother and father nodded in perfect unison.Mum! Dad!

* 13 *

CHAPTER THREE

COMPARING REALITY TOITS ALTERNATIVES

Good Lord, said the barman, peering at Harry, is thiscan thisbe?Harry leaned towards the bar of the Leaky Cauldron as best he could,

though it came up to somewhere around the tips of his eyebrows. A ques-tion like that deserved his very best.

Am Icould I bemaybeyou never knowif Im notbut thenthe question iswho?

Bless my soul, whispered the old barman. Harry Potter what anhonour.

Harry blinked, then rallied. Well, yes, youre quite perceptive; mostpeople dont realise that so quickly

Thats enough, Professor McGonagall said. Her hand tightened onHarrys shoulder. Dont pester the boy, Tom, hes new to all this.

But it is him? quavered an old woman. Its Harry Potter? With ascraping sound, she got up from her chair.

Doris McGonagall said warningly. The glare she shot around theroom should have been enough to intimidate anyone.

I only want to shake his hand, the woman whispered. She bent lowand stuck out a wrinkled hand, which Harry, feeling confused and moreuncomfortable thanheeverhad inhis life, carefully shook. Tears fell fromthe womans eyes onto their clasped hands. My granson was an Auror,she whispered to him. Died in seventy-nine. Thank you, Harry Potter.Thank heavens for you.

* 15 *

*** CHAPTER 3 ***

Youre welcome, Harry said automatically, and then he turned hishead and shot Professor McGonagall a frightened, pleading look.

Professor McGonagall slammed her foot down just as the generalrush was about to start. It made a noise that gave Harry a new referentfor the phrase Crack of Doom, and everyone froze in place.

Were in a hurry, ProfessorMcGonagall said in a voice that soundedperfectly, utterly normal.

They left the bar without any trouble.Professor? Harry said, once they were in the courtyard. He had

meant to ask what was going on, but oddly found himself asking an en-tirely different question instead. Whowas that paleman, by the corner?The man with the twitching eye?

Hm? said Professor McGonagall, sounding a bit surprised; perhapsshe hadnt expected that question either. That was Professor QuirinusQuirrell. Hell be teachingDefence Against theDarkArts this year atHog-warts.

I had the strangest feeling that I knew him Harry rubbed hisforehead. And that I shouldnt ought to shake his hand. Like meetingsomeonewho had been a friend, once, before somethingwent drasticallywrong that wasnt really it at all, but Harry couldnt find words. Andwhat was all of that?

ProfessorMcGonagall was giving him an odd glance. Mr. Potter doyou knowhowmuch have you been told about how your parents died?

Harry returned a steady look. My parents are alive andwell, and theyalways refused to talk about how my genetic parents died. From which Iinfer that it wasnt good.

An admirable loyalty, said Professor McGonagall. Her voice wentlow. Though it hurts a little to hear you say it like that. Lily and Jameswere friends of mine.

Harry looked away, suddenly ashamed. Im sorry, he said in a smallvoice. But I have a Mum and Dad. And I know that Id just make myselfunhappy by comparing that reality to something perfect that I built upin my imagination.

That is amazingly wise of you, Professor McGonagall said quietly.But your genetic parents died very well indeed, protecting you.

* 16 *

***COMPARING REALITY TO ITS

ALTERNATIVES***

Protecting me?Something strange clutched at Harrys heart. What did happen?Professor McGonagall sighed. Her wand tapped Harrys forehead,

and his vision blurred for a moment. Something of a disguise, shesaid, so that this doesnt happen again, not until youre ready. Then herwand licked out again, and tapped three times on a brick wall

which hollowed into a hole, and dilated and expanded and shiveredinto a huge archway, revealing a long row of shopswith signs advertisingcauldrons and dragon livers.

Harry didnt blink. It wasnt like anyone was turning into a cat.And they walked forwards, together, into the wizarding world.There were merchants hawking Bounce Boots (Made with real Flub-

ber!) and Knives +3! Forks +2! Spoons with a +4 bonus! There weregoggles that would turn anything you looked at green, and a lineup ofcomfy armchairs with ejection seats for emergencies.

Harrys head kept rotating, rotating like it was trying to wind itselfoff his neck. It was like walking through the magical items section of anAdvanced Dungeons and Dragons rulebook (he didnt play the game, but hedid enjoy reading the rulebooks). Harry desperately didnt want tomiss asingle item for sale, in case it was one of the three youneeded to completethe cycle of infinite wish spells.

Then Harry spotted something that made him, entirely withoutthinking, veer off from the Deputy Headmistress and start headingstraight into the shop, a front of blue bricks with bronze-metal trim. Hewas brought back to reality only when Professor McGonagall steppedright in front of him.

Mr. Potter? she said.Harry blinked, then realised what hed just done. Im sorry! I forgot

for a moment that I was with you instead of my family. Harry gesturedat the shop window, which displayed fiery letters that shone piercinglybright and yet remote, spelling out Bigbams Brilliant Books. When youwalk past a bookshop you havent visited before, you have to go in andlook around. Thats the family rule.

That is the most Ravenclaw thing I have ever heard.What?

* 17 *

*** CHAPTER 3 ***

Nothing. Mr. Potter, our first step is to visit Gringotts, the bank ofthe wizarding world. Your genetic family vault is there, with the inheri-tance your genetic parents left you, and youll need money for school sup-plies. She sighed. And, I suppose, a certain amount of spendingmoneyfor books could be excused aswell. Though youmightwant to hold off fora time. Hogwarts has quite a large library on magical subjects. And thetower in which, I strongly suspect, you will be living, has a more broad-ranging library of its own. Any book you bought now would probably bea duplicate.

Harry nodded, and they walked on.Dont get me wrong, its a great distraction, Harry said as his head

kept swivelling, probably the best distraction anyone has ever tried onme, but dont think Ive forgotten about our pending discussion.

Professor McGonagall sighed. Your parentsor your mother at anyratemay have been very wise not to tell you.

So you wish that I could continue in blissful ignorance? There is acertain flaw in that plan, Professor McGonagall.

I suppose it would be rather pointless, the witch said tightly, whenanyone on the street could tell you the story. Very well.

And she told him of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, the Dark Lord,Voldemort.

Voldemort? Harry whispered. It should have been funny, but itwasnt. The name burnedwith a cold feeling, ruthlessness, diamond clar-ity, a hammerof pure titaniumdescendinguponananvil of yielding flesh.A chill swept overHarry even as he pronounced theword, and he resolvedthen and there to use safer terms like You-Know-Who.

The Dark Lord had raged upon wizarding Britain like a wilding wolf,tearing and rending at the fabric of their everyday lives. Other countrieshad wrung their hands but hesitated to intervene, whether out of apa-thetic selfishness or simple fear, for whichever was first among them tooppose the Dark Lord, their peace would be the next target of his terror.

(The bystander effect, thought Harry, thinking of Latane and Darleysexperiment which had shown that you weremore likely to get help if youhad an epileptic fit in front of one person than in front of three. Diffusionof responsibility, everyone hoping that someone else would go first.)

* 18 *

***COMPARING REALITY TO ITS

ALTERNATIVES***

TheDeath Eaters had followed in theDark Lords wake and in his van-guard, carrion vultures to pick at wounds, or snakes to bite and weaken.The Death Eaters were not as terrible as the Dark Lord, but they wereterrible, and they were many. And the Death Eaters wielded more thanwands; there was wealth within thosemasked ranks, and political power,and secrets held in blackmail, to paralyse a society trying to protect itself.

An old and respected journalist, Yermy Wibble, called for increasedtaxes and conscription. He shouted that it was absurd for the many tocower in fear of the few. His skin, only his skin, had been found nailed tothe newsroom wall that next morning, next to the skins of his wife andtwo daughters. Everyone wished for somethingmore to be done, and noonedared take the lead topropose it. Whoever stoodout themost becamethe next example.

Until the names of James and Lily Potter rose to the top of that list.And those two might have died with their wands in their hands and

not regretted their choices, for they were heroes; but for that they had aninfant child, their son, Harry Potter.

Tears were coming into Harrys eyes. He wiped them away in angeror maybe desperation, I didnt know those people, not really, they arent myparents now, it would be pointless to feel so sad for them

When Harry was done sobbing into the witchs robes, he looked up,and felt a little bit better to see tears in Professor McGonagalls eyes aswell.

So what happened? Harry said, his voice trembling.The Dark Lord came to Godrics Hollow, ProfessorMcGonagall said

in a whisper. You should have been hidden, but you were betrayed. TheDark Lord killed James, and he killed Lily, and he came in the end to you,to your cot. He cast the Killing Curse at you, and that was where it ended.The Killing Curse is formed of pure hate, and strikes directly at the soul,severing it from the body. It cannot be blocked, and whomever it strikes,they die. But you survived. You are the only person ever to survive. TheKillingCurse rebounded and struck theDark Lord, leaving only the burnthulk of his body and a scar upon your forehead. That was the end of theterror, and we were free. That, Harry Potter, is why people want to seethe scar on your forehead, and why they want to shake your hand.

* 19 *

*** CHAPTER 3 ***

The storm ofweeping that hadwashed throughHarry had used up allhis tears; he could not cry again, he was done.

(And somewhere in the back of his mind was a small, small note ofconfusion, a sense of something wrong about that story; and it shouldhave been a part of Harrys art to notice that tiny note, but he was dis-tracted. For it is a sad rule that whenever you aremost in need of your artas a rationalist, that is when you are most likely to forget it.)

Harry detachedhimself fromProfessorMcGonagalls side. Illhaveto think about this, he said, trying to keep his voice under control. Hestared at his shoes. Um. You can go ahead and call them my parents,if you want, you dont have to say genetic parents or anything. I guesstheres no reason I cant have twomothers and two fathers.

There was no sound from Professor McGonagall.And they walked together in silence, until they came before a great

white building with vast bronze doors, and carven words above sayingGringotts Bank.

* 20 *

CHAPTER FOUR

THE EFFICIENT MARKETHYPOTHESIS

Heaps of gold Galleons. Stacks of silver Sickles. Piles of bronze Knuts.Harry stood there, and stared with his mouth open at the familyvault. He had so many questions he didnt know where to start.

From just outside the door of the vault, Professor McGonagallwatched him, seeming to lean casually against the wall, but her eyesintent. Well, that made sense. Being plopped in front of a giant heap ofgold coins was a test of character so pure it was archetypal.

Are these coins the pure metal? Harry said finally.What? hissed the goblin Griphook, who was waiting near the

door. Are you questioning the integrity of Gringotts, Mr. Potter-Evans-Verres?

No, saidHarry absently, not at all, sorry if that came out wrong, sir.I just have no idea at all how your financial system works. Im asking ifGalleons in general are made of pure gold.

Of course, said Griphook.And can anyone coin them, or are they issued by a monopoly that

thereby collects seigniorage?What? said Professor McGonagall.Griphook grinned, showing sharp teeth. Only a fool would trust any

but goblin coin!In other words, Harry said, the coins arent supposed to be worth

any more than the metal making them up?Griphook stared at Harry. Professor McGonagall looked bemused.

* 21 *

*** CHAPTER 4 ***

I mean, suppose I came in here with a ton of silver. Could I get a tonof Sickles made from it?

For a fee, Mr. Potter-Evans-Verres. The goblin watched him withglittering eyes. For a certain fee. Where would you find a ton of silver, Iwonder?

I was speaking hypothetically, Harry said. For now, at any rate. Sohowmuch would you charge in fees, as a fraction of the whole weight?

Griphooks eyes were intent. I would have to consult my superiorsGive me a wild guess. I wont hold Gringotts to it.A twentieth part of the metal would well pay for the coining.Harry nodded. Thank you very much, Mr. Griphook.So not only is the wizarding economy almost completely decoupled from the

Muggle economy, no one here has ever heard of arbitrage. The larger Muggleeconomy had a fluctuating trading range of gold to silver, so every timetheMuggle gold-to-silver ratio gotmore than 5% away from theweight ofseventeenSickles to oneGalleon, either goldor silver shouldhavedrainedfrom the wizarding economy until it became impossible to maintain theexchange rate. Bring in a ton of silver, change to Sickles (and pay 5%),change the Sickles for Galleons, take the gold to the Muggle world, ex-change it for more silver than you started with, and repeat.

Wasnt theMuggle gold to silver ratio somewhere around fifty to one?Harry didnt think it was seventeen, anyway. And it looked like the silvercoins were actually smaller than the gold coins.

Then again, Harry was standing in a bank that literally stored yourmoney in vaults full of gold coins guarded by dragons, where you hadto go in and take coins out of your vault whenever you wanted to spendmoney. The finer points of arbitraging awaymarket inefficienciesmightwell be lost on them. Hed been tempted tomake snide remarks about thecrudity of their financial system

But the sad thing is, their way is probably better.On the other hand, one competent hedge fundie could probably own

the whole wizarding world within a week. Harry filed away this notionin case he ever ran out of money, or had a week free.

Meanwhile, thegiantheapsofgold coinswithin thePotter vault oughtto suit his near-term requirements.

* 22 *

*** THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS ***

Harry stumped forward, and began picking up gold coins with onehand and dumping them into the other.

When he had reached twenty, Professor McGonagall coughed. Ithink that will be more than enough to pay for your school supplies,Mr. Potter.

Hm? Harry said, his mind elsewhere. Hold on, Im doing a Fermicalculation.

A what? said Professor McGonagall, sounding somewhat alarmed.Its a mathematical thing. Named after Enrico Fermi. A way of get-

ting rough numbers quickly in your headTwenty gold Galleons weighed a tenth of a kilogram, maybe? And

gold was, what, ten thousand British pounds a kilogram? So a Galleonwould be worth about fifty pounds The mounds of gold coins looked tobe about sixty coins high and twenty coins wide in either dimension ofthe base, and amoundwas pyramidal, so it would be around one-third ofthe cube. Eight thousand Galleons per mound, roughly, and there werearound five mounds of that size, so forty thousand Galleons or 2 millionpounds sterling.

Not bad. Harry smiledwith a certain grim satisfaction. Itwas too badthat he was right in the middle of discovering the amazing new world ofmagic, and couldnt take time out to explore the amazing new world ofbeing rich, which a quick Fermi estimate said was roughly a billion timesless interesting.

Still, thats the last time I ever mow a lawn for one lousy pound.Harry wheeled from the giant heap ofmoney. Pardonme for asking,

Professor McGonagall, but I understand that my parents were in theirtwenties when they died. Is this a usual amount of money for a youngcouple to have in their vault, in the wizarding world? If it was, a cup oftea probably cost five thousand pounds. Rule one of economics: you canteat money.

Professor McGonagall shook her head. Your father was the last heirof an old family, Mr. Potter. Its also possible The witch hesitated.Some of this money may be from bounties placed on You-Know-Who,payable to his kiah, to whoever might defeat him. Or those bountiesmight not have been collected yet. I am not sure.

* 23 *

*** CHAPTER 4 ***

Interesting Harry said slowly. So some of this really is, in a sense,mine. That is, earned by me. Sort of. Possibly. Even if I dont remem-ber the occasion. Harrys fingers tapped against his trouser-leg. Thatmakes me feel less guilty about spending a very tiny fraction of it! Dontpanic, Professor McGonagall!

Mr. Potter! You are a minor, and as such, you will only be allowed tomake reasonablewithdrawals from

I am all about reasonable! I am totally on board with fiscal prudenceand impulse control! But I did see some things on the way here whichwould constitute sensible, grown-up purchases

Harry locked gazes with Professor McGonagall, engaging in a silentstaring contest.

Like what? Professor McGonagall said finally.Trunks whose insides hold more than their outsides?Professor McGonagalls face grew stern. Those are very expensive,

Mr. Potter!Yes, but Harry pleaded. Im sure that when Im an adult Ill want

one. And I can afford one. Logically, it would make just as much senseto buy it now instead of later, and get the use of it right away. Its thesamemoney either way, right? I mean, Iwouldwant a good one, with lotsof room inside, good enough that I wouldnt have to just get a better onelater Harry trailed off hopefully.

Professor McGonagalls gaze didnt waver. And just what would youkeep in a trunk like that, Mr. Potter

Books.Of course, sighed Professor McGonagall.You should have toldmemuch earlier that sort of magic item existed!

And that I could afford one! Now my father and I are going to have tospend the next two days frantically hitting up all the secondhand book-shops for old textbooks, so I can have a decent science library with me atHogwartsand maybe a small science fiction collection, if I can assem-ble something decent out of the bargain bins. Or better yet, Ill make thedeal a little sweeter for you, okay? Just let me buy

Mr. Potter! You think you can bribeme?

* 24 *

*** THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS ***

What? No! Not like that! Im saying, Hogwarts can keep some of thebooks I bring, if you think that any of them would make good additionsto the library. Im going to be getting them cheap, and I just want to havethem around somewhere or other. Its okay to bribe people with books,right? Thats a

Family tradition.Yes, exactly.Professor McGonagalls body seemed to slump, the shoulders low-

ering within her black robes. I cannot deny the sense of your words,though I much wish I could. I will allow you to withdraw an additionalhundred Galleons, Mr. Potter. She sighed again. I know that I shallregret this, and I am doing it anyway.

Thats the spirit! And does a mokeskin pouch do what I think itdoes?

It cant do asmuch as a trunk, the witch said with visible reluctance,but amokeskin pouchwith a Retrieval Charm andUndetectable Exten-sion Charm can hold a number of items until they are called forth by theone who emplaced them

Yes! I definitely need one of those too! It would be like the super belt-pack of ultimate awesomeness! Batmans utility belt of holding! Nevermind my swiss army knife, I could carry a whole tool set in there! Orbooks! I could have the top three books I was reading on me at all times,and just pull one out anywhere! Ill never have to waste another minuteof my life! What do you say, Professor McGonagall? Its for the sake ofchildrens reading, the best of all possible causes.

I suppose you may add another ten Galleons.Griphook was favouring Harry with a gaze of frank respect, possibly

even outright admiration.And a little spending money, like you mentioned earlier. I think I

can remember seeing one or two other things I might want to store inthat pouch.

Dont push it, Mr. Potter.But oh, ProfessorMcGonagall, why rain onmy parade? Surely this is

a happy day, when I discover all things wizarding for the first time! Whyact the part of the grumpy grownup when instead you could smile and

* 25 *

*** CHAPTER 4 ***

remember your own innocent childhood, watching the look of delightuponmy young face as I buy a few toys using an insignificant fraction ofthewealth that I earned by defeating themost terrible wizard Britain hasever known, not that Im accusing you of being ungrateful or anything,but still, what are a few toys compared to that?

You, growled ProfessorMcGonagall. There was a look on her face sofearsome and terrible that Harry squeaked and stepped back, knockingover a pile of gold coins with a great jingling noise and sprawling back-wards into a heap of money. Griphook sighed and put a palm over hisface. I would be doing a great service to wizarding Britain, Mr. Potter, ifI locked you in this vault and left you here.

And they left without any more trouble.

* 26 *

CHAPTER FIVE

THE FUNDAMENTALATTRIBUTION ERROR

The Moke Shop was a quaint little shop (some might even say cute)ensconced behind a vegetable stall that was behind amagical gloveshop thatwas on an alleyway off a side street ofDiagonAlley. Disappoint-ingly, the shopkeeper was not a wizened ancient crone; just a nervous-looking young woman wearing faded yellow robes. Right now she washolding out aMoke Super Pouchqx31, whose selling pointwas that it hada Widening Lip as well as an Undetectable Extension Charm: you couldactually fit big things in it, though the total volume was still limited.

Harry had insisted on coming here straight away, first thinginsistedas hard as he thought he could without making Professor McGonagallsuspicious. Harry had somethingheneeded to put into the pouch as soonas possible. It wasnt the bag of Galleons that Professor McGonagall hadallowed him to withdraw from Gringotts. It was all the other Galleonsthat Harry had surreptitiously shoved into his pocket after falling into aheap of gold coins. That had been a real accident, but Harry was neverone to discard an opportunity though itd really beenmore of a spur-of-the-moment thing. Ever since Harry had been awkwardly carrying theallowed bag of Galleons next to his trouser pocket, so that any jinglingwould seem to come from the right place.

This still left the question of how hewas actually going to get the othercoins into the pouch without getting caught. The golden coins mighthave been his, but they were still stolenself-stolen? Auto-thieved?

* 27 *

*** CHAPTER 5 ***

Harry looked up from the Moke Super Pouch qx31 on the counter infront of him. Can I try this for a bit? Tomake sure itworks, um, reliably?He widened his eyes in an expression of boyish, playful innocence.

Sure enough, after ten repetitions of putting the coin-bag into thepouch, reaching in, whispering bag of gold, and taking it out, Profes-sorMcGonagall took a step away and began examining some of the otheritems in the shop, and the shopkeeper turned her head to watch.

Harry dropped the bag of gold into the mokeskin pouch with his lefthand; his right hand came out of his pocket tightly holding some of thegold coins, reached into themokeskin pouch, dropped the looseGalleons,and (with a whisper of bag of gold) retrieved the original bag. Then thebagwent back into his left hand, to be dropped in again, andHarrys righthand went back into his pocket

Professor McGonagall looked back at him once, but Harry managedto avoid freezing or flinching, and she didnt seem to notice anything.Though you never did quite know, with the adults that had a sense of hu-mour. It took three iterations to get the job done, andHarry guessed hedmanaged to steal maybe thirty Galleons from himself.

Harry reachedup,wipedabit of sweat fromhis forehead, andexhaled.Id like this one, please.

Fifteen Galleons lighter (twice the price of a wizards wand, appar-ently) and one Moke Super Pouch qx31 heavier, Harry and ProfessorMcGonagall pushed their way out of the door. The door formed a handand waved goodbye to them as they left, extruding its arm in a way thatmade Harry feel a bit queasy.

And then, unfortunatelyAre you really Harry Potter? whispered the old man, one huge tear

sliding down his cheek. Youwouldnt lie about that, would you? Only Idheard rumours that you didnt really survive the Killing Curse and thatswhy no one ever heard from you again.

it seemed that Professor McGonagalls disguise spell was less thanperfectly effective against more experienced magical practitioners.

Professor McGonagall had laid a hand on Harrys shoulder andyanked him into the nearest alleyway the moment shed heard Harry

* 28 *

***THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR ***

Potter? The old man had followed, but at least it looked like no one elsehad heard.

Harry considered the question. Was he really Harry Potter? I onlyknowwhat other people have toldme, Harry said. Its not like I remem-ber being born. His hand brushed his forehead. Ive had this scar aslong as I remember, and Ive been toldmy namewasHarry Potter as longas I remember. But,Harry said thoughtfully, if theres already sufficientcause to postulate a conspiracy, theres no reason why they wouldnt justfind another orphan and raise him to believe that hewas Harry Potter

Professor McGonagall drew her hand over her face in exasperation.You look just about exactly like your father, James, the year he first at-tended Hogwarts. And I can attest on the basis of personality alone thatyou are related to the Scourge of Gryffindor.

She could be in on it too, Harry observed.No, quavered the old man. Shes right. You have your mothers

eyes.Hmm, Harry frowned. I suppose you could be in on it tooEnough, Mr. Potter.The old man raised up a hand as if to touch Harry, but then let it fall.

Im just glad that youre alive, he murmured. Thank you, Harry Potter.Thank you for what you did Ill leave you alone now.

And his cane slowly tapped away, out the alley and down the mainstreet of Diagon Alley.

The Professor looked around, her expression tense and grim. Harryautomatically looked around himself. But the alley seemed empty of allbut old leaves, and from the mouth leading out into Diagon Alley, onlyswiftly striding passersby could be seen.

Finally Professor McGonagall seemed to relax. That was not welldone, she said in a low voice. I know youre not used to this, Mr. Pot-ter, but people do care about you. Please be kind to them.

Harry looked down at his shoes. They shouldnt, he saidwith a tingeof bitterness. Care about me, I mean.

You saved them from You-Know-Who, said Professor McGonagall.How should they not care?

* 29 *

*** CHAPTER 5 ***

Harry looked up at the witch-ladys strict expression beneath herpointed hat, and sighed. I suppose theres no chance that if I saidfundamental attribution error youd have any idea what that meant.

No, said the Professor in her precise Scottish accent, but please ex-plain, Mr. Potter, if you would be so kind.

Well Harry said, trying to figure out how to describe that partic-ular bit of Muggle science. Suppose you come into work and see yourcolleague kicking his desk. You think, what an angry person hemust be.Your colleague is thinkingabouthowsomeonebumpedhim into awall onthe way to work and then shouted at him. Anyonewould be angry at that,he thinks. When we look at others we see personality traits that explaintheir behaviour, but whenwe look at ourselves we see circumstances thatexplainourbehaviour. Peoples storiesmake internal sense to them, fromthe inside, but we dont see peoples histories trailing behind them in theair. We only see them in one situation, and we dont see what they wouldbe like in a different situation. So the fundamental attribution error isthat we explain by permanent, enduring traits what would be better ex-plained by circumstance and context. There were some elegant experi-ments which confirmed this, but Harry wasnt about to go into them.

The witchs eyebrows drew up beneath her hats brim. I think I un-derstand Professor McGonagall said slowly. But what does that haveto do with you?

Harry kicked the brick wall of the alley hard enough to make his foothurt. People think that I saved them from You-Know-Who because Imsome kind of great warrior of the Light.

The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lordmurmured thewitch, a strange irony leavening her voice.

Yes, Harry said, annoyance and frustration warring in him, like Idestroyed the Dark Lord because I have some kind of permanent, endur-ing destroy-the-Dark-Lord trait. I was fifteen months old at the time! Idont know what happened, but I would suppose it had something to dowith, as the saying goes, contingent environmental circumstances. Andcertainly nothing to do with my personality. People dont care about me,they arent even paying attention tome, they want to shake hands with abad explanation. Harry paused, and looked at McGonagall. Do you know

* 30 *

***THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR ***

what really happened?I have formed an idea said Professor McGonagall. After meeting

you, that is.Yes?You triumphed over the Dark Lord by beingmore awful than hewas,

and survived the Killing Curse by being more terrible than Death.Ha. Ha. Ha. Harry kicked the wall again.Professor McGonagall chuckled. Lets get you to Madam Malkins

next. I fear your Muggle clothing may be attracting attention.They ran into twomore well-wishers along the way.Madam Malkins Robes had a genuinely boring shopfront, red ordi-

nary brick, and glass windows showing plain black robes within. Notrobes that shone or changed or spun, or radiated strange rays thatseemed to go right through your shirt and tickle you. Just plain blackrobes, that was all you could see through the window. The door waspropped wide open, as if to advertise that there were no secrets here andnothing to hide.

Im going to go off for a few minutes while you get fitted for yourrobes, said Professor McGonagall. Will you be all right with that,Mr. Potter?

Harry nodded. He hated clothes shopping with a fiery passion andcouldnt blame the older witch for feeling the same way.

Professor McGonagalls wand came out of her sleeve, tapped Harryshead lightly. And as youll need to be clear to MadamMalkins senses, Iam removing the Obfuscation.

Uh Harry said. That did worry him a little; he still wasnt used tothe Harry Potter thing.

I went to Hogwarts with Madam Malkin, McGonagall said. Eventhen, she was one of the most composed people I knew. She wouldnt turna hair if You-Know-Who himself walked into her shop. McGonagallsvoicewas reminiscent, and very approving. MadamMalkinwont botheryou, and she wont let anyone else bother you.

Where are yougoing? Harry inquired. Just in case, youknow, some-thing does happen.

* 31 *

*** CHAPTER 5 ***

McGonagall gaveHarry ahard look. I amgoing there, she said, point-ing at a building across the streetwhich showed the sign of awooden keg,and buying a drink, which I desperately need. You are to get fitted foryour robes, nothing else. I will come back to check up on you shortly, and Iexpect to find MadamMalkins shop still standing and not in any way onfire.

MadamMalkinwasabustlingoldwomanwhodidnt say awordaboutHarry when she saw the scar on his forehead, and she shot a sharp lookat an assistant when that girl seemed about to say something. MadamMalkin got out a set of animated, writhing bits of cloth that seemed toserve as tapemeasures and set to work examining themedium of her art.

Next to Harry, a pale young boy with a pointed face and awesomecoolblonde-white hair seemed to be going through the final stages of a similarprocess. One of Malkins two assistants was examining the white-hairedboy and the chequerboard-gridded robe hewaswearing; occasionally shewould tap a corner of the robe with her wand, and the robe would loosenor tighten.

Hello, said the boy. Hogwarts, too?Harry could predict where this conversation was about to go, and he

decided in a split second of frustration that enough was enough.Good heavens, whispered Harry, it couldnt be. He let his eyes

widen. Your name, sir?Draco Malfoy, said Draco Malfoy, looking slightly puzzled.It is you! Draco Malfoy. II never thought Id be so honoured, sir.

Harrywishedhe couldmake tears comeoutofhis eyes. Theothersusuallystarted crying at around this point.

Oh, said Draco, sounding a little confused. Then his lips stretchedin a smug smile. Its good to meet someone who knows his place.

Oneof the assistants, the onewhod seemed to recogniseHarry,madea muffled choking sound.

Harry burbled on. Im delighted to meet you, Mr. Malfoy. Just un-utterably delighted. And to be attending Hogwarts in your very year! Itmakes my heart swoon.

Oops. That last part might have sounded a little odd, like he was flirt-ing with Draco or something.

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***THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR ***

And I am pleased to learn that I shall be treated with the respect dueto the family of Malfoy, the other boy lobbed back, accompanied by asmile such as the highest of kingsmight bestow upon the least of his sub-jects, if that subject were honest, though poor.

EhDamn, Harry was having trouble thinking up his next line. Well,everyone did want to shake the hand of Harry Potter, soWhen myclothes are fitted, sir, might you deign to shake my hand? I should wishnothing more to put the capper upon this day, nay, this month, indeed,my whole lifetime.

The white-blonde-haired boy glared in return. And what have youdone for the Malfoys that entitles you to such a favour?

Oh, I am so totally trying this routine on the next person who wants to shakemy hand. Harry bowed his head. No, no, sir, I understand. Im sorry forasking. I should be honoured to clean your boots, rather.

Indeed, snapped the other boy. His stern face lightened somewhat.Tell me, what House do you think you might be sorted into? Im boundfor Slytherin House, of course, like my father Lucius before me. And foryou, Id guess House Hufflepuff, or possibly House Elf.

Harry grinned sheepishly. Professor McGonagall says that Im themost Ravenclaw person shes ever seen or heard tell of in legend, somuch so that Rowena herself would tell me to get out more, whateverthat means, and that Ill undoubtedly end up in Ravenclaw House if thehat isnt screaming too loudly for the rest of us to make out any words,end quote.

Wow, saidDracoMalfoy, sounding slightly impressed. Theboygavea sort of wistful sigh. Your flattery was great, or I thought so, anywayyoud dowell in SlytherinHouse, too. Usually its onlymy fatherwho getsthat sort of grovelling. Im hoping the other Slytherins will suck up to menow Im at Hogwarts I guess this is a good sign, then.

Harry coughed. Actually, sorry, Ive got no idea who you are really.Oh come on! the boy said with fierce disappointment. Whyd you go

and do that, then? Dracos eyes widened with sudden suspicion. Andhowdo you not knowabout theMalfoys? Andwhat are those clothes yourewearing? Are your parentsMuggles?

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*** CHAPTER 5 ***

Two of my parents are dead, Harry said. His heart twinged. Whenhe put it that wayMy other two parents are Muggles, and theyre theones that raised me.

What? said Draco. Who are you?Harry Potter, pleased to meet you.Harry Potter? gasped Draco. The Harry and the boy cut off

abruptly.There was a brief silence.Then,withbright enthusiasm, HarryPotter? TheHarryPotter? Gosh,

Ive always wanted to meet you!Dracos attendant emitted a sound like she was strangling but kept

on with her work, lifting Dracos arms to carefully remove the chequeredrobe.

Shut up, Harry suggested.Can I have your autograph? No, wait, I want a picturewith you first!Shutupshutupshutup.Im just so delighted to meet you!Burst into flames and die.But youre Harry Potter, the glorious saviour of thewizardingworld!

Everyones hero,HarryPotter! Ive alwayswanted to be just like youwhenI grow up so I can

Draco cut off thewords inmid-sentence, his face freezing in absolutehorror.

Tall, white-haired, coldly elegant in black robes of the finest quality.One hand gripping a silver-handled cane which took on the character ofa deadly weapon just by being in that hand. His eyes regarded the roomwith the dispassionate quality of an executioner, a man to whom killingwas not painful, or even deliciously forbidden, but just a routine activitylike breathing.

That was themanwho had, just that moment, strolled in through theopen door.

Draco, said the man, low and very angry, what are you saying?In one split second of sympathetic panic, Harry formulated a rescue

plan.Lucius Malfoy! gasped Harry Potter. The Lucius Malfoy?

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***THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR ***

One of Malkins assistants had to turn away and face the wall.Coolly murderous eyes regarded him. Harry Potter.I am so, so honoured to meet you!The dark eyes widened, shocked surprise replacing deadly threat.Your son has been tellingme all about you, Harry gushed on, hardly

even knowing what was coming out of his mouth but just talking as fastas possible. But of course I knew about you all before then, everyoneknows about you, the great Lucius Malfoy! The most honoured laureateof all the House of Slytherin, Ive been thinking about trying to get intoSlytherin House myself just because I heard you were in it as a child

What are you saying,Mr. Potter? came anear-scream fromoutside theshop, and Professor McGonagall burst in a second later.

There was such pure horror on her face that Harrys mouth openedautomatically, and then blocked on nothing-to-say.

Professor McGonagall! cried Draco. Is it really you? Ive heard somuch about you frommy father, Ive been thinking of trying to get Sortedinto Gryffindor so I can

What? bellowed Lucius Malfoy and Professor McGonagall in per-fect unison, standing side-by-side. Their heads swivelled to look at eachother in duplicate motions, and then the two recoiled from one anotheras though performing a synchronised dance.

There was a sudden flurry of action as Lucius seized Draco anddragged him out of the shop.

And then there was silence.In Professor McGonagalls left hand lay a small drinking-glass, tilted

over to one side in the forgotten rush, now slowly dripping drops of alco-hol into the tiny puddle of red wine that had appeared on the floor.

Professor McGonagall strode forward into the shop until she was op-posite MadamMalkin.

MadamMalkin, said Professor McGonagall, her voice calm. Whathas been happening here?

Madam Malkin looked back silently for four seconds, and thencracked up. She fell against the wall, wheezing out laughter, and that setoff both of her assistants, one of whom fell to her hands and knees on thefloor, giggling hysterically.

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*** CHAPTER 5 ***

Professor McGonagall slowly turned to look at Harry, her expressionchilly. I leave you alone for six minutes. Six minutes, Mr. Potter, by thevery clock.

I was only joking around, Harry protested, as the sounds of hysteri-cal laughter went on nearby.

Draco Malfoy said in front of his father that he wanted to be sorted intoGryffindor! Joking around isnt enough to do that! Professor McGona-gall paused, visibly taking breaths. What part of get fitted for robessounded to you like please cast a Confundus Charm on the entire universe!

He was in a situational context where those actions made internalsense

No. Dont explain. I dont want to knowwhat happened in here, ever.Whatever dark power inhabits you, it is contagious, and I dont want toend up like poor Draco Malfoy, poor Madam Malkin and her two poorassistants.

Harry sighed. It was clear that Professor McGonagall wasnt in amood to listen to reasonable explanations. He looked at MadamMalkin,who was still wheezing against the wall, and Malkins two assistants,who had now both fallen to their knees, and finally down at his own tape-measure-draped body.

Im not quite done being fitted for clothes, Harry said kindly. Whydont you go back and have another drink?

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CHAPTER SIX

THE PLANNING FALLACY

Some children would have waited until after their first trip to DiagonAlley.Bag of element 79, Harry said, and withdrew his hand, empty, from

the mokeskin pouch.Most children would have at least waited to get their wands first.Bag of okane, said Harry. The heavy bag of gold popped up into his

hand.Harry withdrew the bag, then plunged it again into the mokeskin

pouch. He took out his hand, put it back in, and said, Bag of tokens ofeconomic exchange. That time his hand came out empty.

Give me back the bag that I just put in. Out came the bag of goldonce more.

Harry JamesPotter-Evans-Verres hadgottenhis hands onat least onemagical item. Why wait?

Professor McGonagall, Harry said to the bemused witch strollingbeside him, can you giveme twowords, oneword for gold, and onewordfor something else that isnt money, in a language that I wouldnt know?But dont tell me which is which.

Ahava and zahav, said Professor McGonagall. Thats Hebrew, andthe other word means love.

Thank you, Professor. Bag of ahava. Empty.Bag of zahav. And it popped up into his hand.Zahav is gold? Harry questioned, and Professor McGonagall nod-

ded.

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Harry thought over his collected experimental data. It was only themost crude and preliminary sort of effort, but it was enough to supportat least one conclusion:

Aaaaaaarrrgh this doesnt make any sense!The witch beside him lifted a lofty eyebrow. Problems, Mr. Potter?I just falsified every single hypothesis I had! How can it know that

bagof 115Galleons is okaybutnot bagof 90plus 25Galleons? It can countbut it cant add? It canunderstandnouns, butnot somenounphrases thatmean the same thing? The person who made this probably didnt speakJapanese and I dont speak any Hebrew, so its not using their knowledge,and its not usingmy knowledge Harry waved a hand helplessly. Therules seem sorta consistent but they dont mean anything! Im not evengoing to ask how a pouch ends up with voice recognition and natural lan-guage understanding when the best Artificial Intelligence programmerscant get the fastest supercomputers to do it after thirty-five years of hardwork, Harry gasped for breath, but what is going on?

Magic, said Professor McGonagall.Thats just a word! Even after you tell me that, I cant make any new

predictions! Its exactly like saying phlogiston or elan vital or emer-gence or complexity!

The black-robed witch laughed aloud. But it ismagic, Mr. Potter.Harry slumped over a little. With respect, ProfessorMcGonagall, Im

not quite sure you understand what Im trying to do here.With respect, Mr. Potter, Im quite sure I dont. Unlessthis is just

a guess, mindyoure trying to take over the world?No! I mean yeswell, no!I think I should perhaps be alarmed that you have trouble answering

the question.Harry glumly considered the Dartmouth Conference on Artificial

Intelligence in 1956. It had been the first conference ever on the topic,the one that had coined the phrase Artificial Intelligence. They hadidentified key problems such as making computers understand lan-guage, learn, and improve themselves. They had suggested, in perfectseriousness, that significant advances on these problemsmight bemadeby ten scientists working together for twomonths.

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*** THE PLANNING FALLACY ***

No. Chin up. Youre just starting on the problem of unravelling all the secretsofmagic. You dont actually knowwhether its going to be too difficult to do in twomonths.

And you really havent heard of other wizards asking these sorts ofquestions or doing this sort of scientific experimenting? Harry askedagain. It just seemed so obvious to him.

Then again, itd taken more than two hundred years after the inven-tion of the scientific method before any Muggle scientists had thoughtto systematically investigate which sentences a human four-year-old couldor couldnt understand. The developmental psychology of linguisticscouldve been discovered in the eighteenth century, in principle, butno one had even thought to look until the twentieth. So you couldntreally blame the much smaller wizarding world for not investigating theRetrieval Charm.

Professor McGonagall pursed her lips, then shrugged. Im still notsure what you mean by scientific experimenting, Mr. Potter. As I said,Ive seen Muggleborn students try to get Muggle science to work insideHogwarts, and people invent new Charms and Potions every year.

Harry shook his head. Technology isnt the same thing as scienceat all. And trying lots of different ways to do something isnt the sameas experimenting to figure out the rules. There were plenty of peoplewhod tried to invent flying machines by trying out lots of things-with-wings, but only the Wright Brothers had built a wind tunnel to measurelift Um, how many Muggle-raised children do you get at Hogwarts ev-ery year?

Perhaps ten or so?Harry missed a step and almost tripped over his own feet. Ten?The Muggle world had a population of six billion and counting. If

you were one in a million, there were seven of you in London and a thou-sand more in China. It was inevitable that the Muggle population wouldproduce some eleven-year-olds who could do calculusHarry knew hewasnt the only one. Hed met other prodigies in mathematical compe-titions. In fact hed been thoroughly trounced by competitors who proba-bly spent literally all day practisingmaths problems andwhod never reada science-fiction book and who would burn out completely before puberty

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*** CHAPTER 6 ***

and never amount to anything in their future lives because theyd just prac-tised known techniques instead of learning to think creatively. (Harry wassomething of a sore loser.)

But in the wizarding worldTen Muggle-raised children per year, whod all ended their Muggle

educations at the age of eleven? And Professor McGonagall might be bi-ased, but she had claimed that Hogwarts was the largest and most emi-nent wizarding school in the world and it only educated up to the ageof seventeen.

ProfessorMcGonagall undoubtedly knew every last detail of how youwent about turning into a cat. But she seemed tohave literally never heardof the scientific method. To her it was just Mugglemagic. And she didnteven seem curious about what secrets might be hiding behind the naturallanguage understanding of the Retrieval Charm.

That left two possibilities, really.Possibility one: Magic was so incredibly opaque, convoluted, and im-

penetrable, that even though wizards and witches had tried their best tounderstand, theyd made little or no progress and eventually given up;and Harry would do no better.

OrHarry cracked his knuckles in determination, but they only made a

quiet sort of clicking sound, rather than echoing ominously off the wallsof Diagon Alley.

Possibility two: Hed be taking over the world.Eventually. Perhaps not right away.That sort of thing did sometimes take longer than two months. Mug-

gle science hadnt gone to the moon in the first week after Galileo.But Harry still couldnt stop the huge smile that was stretching his

cheeks so wide they were starting to hurt.Harry had always been frightened of ending up as one of those child

prodigies that never amounted to anything and spent the rest of theirlives boasting about how far ahead theyd been at age ten. But thenmostadult geniuses never amounted to anything either. There were probablya thousand people as intelligent as Einstein for every actual Einstein inhistory. Because those other geniuses hadnt gotten their hands on the

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*** THE PLANNING FALLACY ***

one thing youabsolutelyneeded to achieve greatness. Theydnever foundan important problem.

Youre mine now, Harry thought at the walls of Diagon Alley, and allthe shops and items, and all the shopkeepers and customers; and all thelands and people ofwizarding Britain, and all thewiderwizardingworld;and the entire greater universe of which Muggle scientists understoodso much less than they believed. I, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres, do nowclaim this territory in the name of Science.

Lightning and thunder completely failed to flash and boom in thecloudless skies.

What are you smilingabout? inquiredProfessorMcGonagall, warilyand wearily.

Im wondering if theres a spell to make lightning flash in the back-ground whenever I make an ominous resolution, explained Harry. Hewas carefully memorising the exact words of his ominous resolution sothat future history books would get it right.

I have the distinct feeling that I ought to be doing something aboutthis, sighed Professor McGonagall.

Ignore it, itll go away. Ooh, shiny! Harry put his thoughts of worldconquest temporarily on hold and skipped over to a shop with an opendisplay, and Professor McGonagall followed.

***

Harry had now bought his potions ingredients and cauldron, and, oh, afew more things. Items that seemed like good things to carry in HarrysBag of Holding (aka Moke Super Pouch QX31 with Undetectable Exten-sion Charm, Retrieval Charm, and Widening Lip). Smart, sensible pur-chases.

Harry genuinely didnt understand why Professor McGonagall waslooking so suspicious.

Right now, Harry was in a shop expensive enough to display in thetwisting main street of Diagon Alley. The shop had an open front withmerchandise laid out on slanted wooden rows, guarded only by slight

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*** CHAPTER 6 ***

grey glows and a young-looking salesgirl in amuch-shortened version ofwitchs robes that exposed her knees and elbows.

Harry was examining the wizarding equivalent of a first-aid kit, theEmergency Healing Pack Plus. There were two self-tightening tourni-quets. A syringe of what looked like liquid fire, which was supposed todrastically slow circulation in a treated area while maintaining oxygena-tion of the blood for up to three minutes, if you needed to prevent a poi-son from spreading through the body. White cloth that could bewrappedover a part of the body to temporarily numb pain. Plus any number ofother items that Harry totally failed to comprehend, like the DementorExposure Treatment, which looked and smelled like ordinary chocolate.Or the Bafflesnaffle Counter, which looked like a small quivering eggand carried a placard showing how to jam it up someones nostril.

A definite buy at five Galleons, wouldnt you agree? Harry said toProfessorMcGonagall, and the teenage salesgirl hoveringnearby noddedeagerly.

Harry had expected the Professor to make some sort of approving re-mark about his prudence and preparedness.

What he was getting instead could only be described as the Evil Eye.And justwhy, ProfessorMcGonagall saidwith heavy scepticism, do

you expect to need a healers kit, youngman? (After the unfortunate inci-dent at the Potions shop, Professor McGonagall was trying to avoid say-ing Mr. Potter while anyone else was nearby.)

Harrys mouth opened and closed. I dont expect to need it! Its justin case!

Just in case of what?Harrys eyes widened. You think Im planning to do something dan-

gerous and thatswhy I want a medical kit?A look of grim suspicion and ironic disbelief was the answer.Great Scott! said Harry. (This was an expression hed learned from

the mad scientist Doc Brown in Back to the Future.) Were you also think-ing thatwhen I bought the Feather-Falling Potion, theGillyweed, and thebottle of Food andWater Pills?

Yes.

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*** THE PLANNING FALLACY ***

Harry shook his head in amazement. Just what sort of plan do youthink I have going, here?

I dont know, Professor McGonagall said darkly, but it ends eitherin you delivering a ton of silver to Gringotts, or in world domination.

World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it worldoptimisation.

This hilarious joke failed to reassure the witch giving him the Look ofDoom.

Wow, Harry said, as he realised that she was serious. You reallythink that. You really think Im planning to do something dangerous.

Yes.Like thats the only reason anyone would ever buy a first-aid kit?

Dont take this the wrong way, Professor McGonagall, but what sort ofcrazy children are you used to dealing with?

Gryffindors, spat ProfessorMcGonagall, theword carrying a freightof bitterness and despair that fell like an eternal curse on all youthful en-thusiasm and high spirits.

Deputy Headmistress Professor Minerva McGonagall, Harrysaid, putting his hands sternly on his hips. I am not going to be inGryffindor

At this point the Deputy Headmistress interjected something abouthow if he was she would figure out how to kill a hat, which odd remarkHarry let pass without comment, though the salesgirl seemed to be hav-ing a sudden coughing fit.

I amgoing to be inRavenclaw. And if you really think that Implan-ning to do something dangerous, then, honestly, you dont understandme at all. I dont like danger, it is scary. I am being prudent. I am beingcautious. I am preparing for unforeseen contingencies. Likemy parents usedto sing tome: Be prepared! Thats the Boy Scouts marching song! Be prepared!As through life you march along! Dont be nervous, dont be flustered, dont bescaredbe prepared!

(Harrys parents had in fact only ever sung him those particular linesof that Tom Lehrer song, and Harry was blissfully unaware of the rest.)

Professor McGonagalls stance had slightly softenedthoughmostlywhen Harry had said that he was heading for Ravenclaw. What sort of

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*** CHAPTER 6 ***

contingency do you imagine this kit might prepare you for, young man?One of my classmates gets bitten by a horrible monster, and as I

scrabble frantically inmymokeskin pouch for something that could helpher, she looks at me sadly and with her last breath says, Why werent youprepared? And then she dies, and I know as her eyes close that she wontever forgive me

Harry heard the salesgirl gasp, and he looked up to see her staring athimwith her lips pressed tight. Then the young womanwhirled and fledinto the deeper recesses of the shop.

What?Professor McGonagall reached down, and took Harrys hand in hers,

gently but firmly, and pulledHarry out of themain street of Diagon Alley,leading him into an alleyway between two shopswhichwas paved in dirtybricks and dead-ended in a wall of solid black dirt.

The tallwitchpointedherwandat themain street and spoke, Quietusshe said, and a screen of silence descended around them, blocking out allthe street noises.

What did I do wrongProfessor McGonagall turned to regard Harry. She didnt have a full

adult Wrongdoing Face, but her expression was flat, controlled. Youmust remember, Mr. Potter, she said, that there was a war in this coun-try not ten years ago. Everyone has lost someone, and to speak of friendsdying in your armsis not done lightly.

II didnt mean to The inference dropped like a falling stoneintoHarrys exceptionally vivid imagination. Hed talked about someonebreathing their last breathand then the salesgirl had run awayandthe war had ended ten years ago so that girl would have been at mosteight or nine years old, when, when, Im sorry, I didnt mean to Harrychoked up, and turned away to run from the older witchs gaze but therewas a wall of dirt blocking his way and he didnt have his wand yet. Imsorry, Im sorry, Im sorry!

There came a heavy sigh from behind him. I know you are, Mr. Pot-ter.

Harry dared to peek behind him. Professor McGonagall only seemedsad, now. Im sorry, Harry said again, feeling wretched. Did anything

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*** THE PLANNING FALLACY ***

like that happen to and then Harry shut his lips and slapped a handover his mouth for good measure.

The older witchs face grew a little sadder. You must learn to thinkbefore you speak,Mr. Potter, or else go through lifewithoutmany friends.That has been the fate of many a Ravenclaw, and I hope it will not beyours.

Harry wanted to just run away. He wanted to pull out a wand anderase thewhole thing fromProfessorMcGonagallsmemory, bebackwithher outside the shop again,make it didnt happen

But to answer your question, Mr. Potter, no, nothing like that hasever happened to me. Certainly Ive watched a friend breathe their last,once or seven times. But not one of themever cursedmeas they died, andI never thought that they wouldnt forgiveme. Whywould you say such athing, Mr. Potter? Why would you even think it?

I, I, I, Harry swallowed. Its just that I always try to imagine theworst thing that could happen, andmaybe hed also been joking arounda little but he would rather have bitten off his own tongue than say thatnow.

What? said Professor McGonagall. But why?So I can stop it from happening!Mr. Potter the older witchs voice trailed off. Then she sighed, and

knelt down beside him. Mr. Potter, she said, gently now, its not yourresponsibility to take care of the students at Hogwarts. Its mine. I wontlet anything bad happen to you or anyone