hsbc holdings plc - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/res/hk_res/stock/2016/2/22/558030a0-e...2016/02/22...

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Rating

Hold Asia

Hong Kong

Banking / Finance

Banks

Company

HSBC Holdings Plc

Date

22 February 2016

Results

4Q15 earnings miss, but valuation support from dividend. Hold

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker 0005.HK 5 HK HSI 0005

ADR Ticker ISIN HBC US4042804066

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Dec 31 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E

Provisioning (USDm) 3,851 3,721 4,272 4,418 4,734

Pre-prov profit (USDm) 19,999 20,032 14,690 18,608 23,743

Net profit (USDm) 15,571 13,114 11,910 12,666 13,875

EPS (USD) 0.69 0.65 0.36 0.50 0.66

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

4Q15 earnings miss, but cash yield provides some valuation support

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015.

Price at 22 Feb 2016 (HKD) 49.15

Price target - 12mth (HKD) 47.80

52-week range (HKD) 77.45 - 48.10

HANG SENG INDEX 19,286

David Lock

Research Analyst

(+44) 20 754-11521

[email protected]

Key changes

Price target 55.60 to 47.80 ↓ -14.0%

Provisioning (FYE)

3,474.2 to 4,272.4

↑ 23.0%

Net int margin (FYE)

1.92 to 1.96 ↑ 1.9%

Net profit (FYE)

9,864.3 to 7,245.1

↓ -26.6%

Source: Deutsche Bank

Price/price relative

45

60

75

90

105

120

2/14 8/14 2/15 8/15

HSBC Holdings Plc

HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased)

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute -7.0 -21.9 -31.7

HANG SENG INDEX 1.1 -15.2 -22.3

Source: Deutsche Bank

HSBC reported 4Q15 results which were a miss to DBe & consensus driven by weaker income and higher impairments than expected, particularly in the Commercial business. HSBC continues to execute on its cost plan, producing a better quarter (u/l costs down both QoQ and YoY), and the shares remain supported by a solid capital performance (11.9%, in line with DBe & consensus) and dividends (which represent 8-8.6% dividend yield, 5.5-6% cash yield). However, 3Q&4Q15 results have shown headwinds for revenues (which we expect to continue), and trading at 10x 2017 EPS, 0.8x TNAV HSBC does not screen cheap vs European sector. Our TP falls to 47.8HKD, we retain Hold.

Key items in the results Revenues: Income was better than expected at GBM, however

performance in RBWM & Commercial Banking was weaker. It appears a supportive revenue environment will be needed to hit positive jaws in 2016.

Costs: better than expected for the quarter, though our forecasts remain above HSBC’s costs target for 2017/8. If HSBC were to hit their target it would represent a 10% upgrade to 2018 EPS.

Impairments: impacted by oil and gas in 4Q15 (around a quarter of the impairment) but impairment rates remain low vs. history.

Capital & dividends: 51c declared for FY15, representing cash yield of 5.5%. CET1 was in line at 11.9%, Brazil is expected to add 60bps in 2016.

Valuation & risks, TP to 437p, retain Hold We reduce our earnings forecasts by 9-14% due lower income, higher impairments, and higher AT1 coupon costs than previously forecast, partly offset by better costs. This leaves HSBC trading at 10x 2017 EPS, 0.8x TNAV for a dividend yield of 8-8.5%, representing a cash yield of 5.4-6.0%. This compares with the sector trading at 0.8x 2017, and 9x 2017 EPS, dividend yield of c.7%. We use two methodologies to value HSBC: Sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) and Dividend-Discount-Model (DDM); our 12-month target price is the average of the two, which falls from 55.6HKD to 47.8HKD. Given limited downside to our TP, we retain our Hold rating. Key upside risks are an improvement in Emerging Markets outlook, lower than expected loan losses, better-than-expected outcomes for regulation, lower costs. Key downside risks relate to regulatory change, legacy liabilities, and a slowdown in emerging markets.

22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


Model updated:22 February 2016

Running the numbers

Asia

Hong Kong

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc Reuters: 0005.HK Bloomberg: 5 HK

Hold Price (22 Feb 16) HKD 49.15

Target Price HKD 47.80

52 Week range HKD 48.10 - 77.45

Market Cap (m) HKDm 987,172

USDm 126,926

Company Profile

HSBC is one of the world's leading banking and financial institutions with c.6,600 offices and 58 million customers in 81 countries across Europe, Hong Kong, Asia-Pacific, Middle East, North Africa, North America and Latin America. At FY12 46% of its loan book was in Europe, 17% in Hong Kong, 17% in Asia & Middle East, 14% in North America and 5% in Latin America. HSBC has 4 main business divisions: Retail Banking & Wealth Management, Commercial Banking, Global Banking and Markets and Global Private Banking. At FY12 38% of loan balances were in RBWM, 29% in Commercial, 28% in GBM, and 5% in Private Banking.

David Lock

+44 20 754-11521 [email protected]

Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Data Per Share

EPS (stated)(USD) 0.84 0.69 0.65 0.36 0.50 0.66 EPS (DB) (USD) 0.79 0.82 0.67 0.60 0.62 0.67 Growth Rate - EPS (DB) (%) -16.8 3.7 -17.8 -10.9 4.1 7.2 DPS (USD) 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 BVPS (stated) (USD) 9.27 9.24 8.73 8.61 8.60 8.75 Tang. NAV p. sh. (USD) 7.76 7.80 7.48 7.48 7.50 7.67 Market Capitalisation 204,290 183,375 157,178 126,926 126,926 126,926 Shares in issue 18,654 19,056 19,517 19,885 20,310 20,760

Valuation Ratios & Profitability Measures

P/E (stated) 12.9 13.8 12.3 17.5 12.5 9.5 P/E (DB) 13.8 11.7 11.9 10.6 10.1 9.5 P/B (stated) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 P/Tangible equity (DB) 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 ROE(stated)(%) 9.1 7.4 7.2 4.2 5.8 7.7 ROTE (tangible equity) (%) 10.3 10.5 8.8 8.0 8.3 8.8 ROIC (invested capital) (%) 8.6 8.8 7.5 6.9 7.2 7.7 Dividend yield(%) 4.5 4.8 5.9 8.2 8.4 8.5 Dividend cover(x) 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.2

Profit & Loss (USDm)

Net interest revenue 35,535 34,705 32,531 31,247 30,854 31,559 Non interest income 29,266 26,704 27,308 22,974 25,313 26,134 Commissions 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trading Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other revenue 29,266 26,704 27,308 22,974 25,313 26,134 Total revenue 64,801 61,409 59,839 54,220 56,166 57,693 Total Operating Costs 38,712 41,410 39,807 39,530 37,559 33,950 Employee Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other costs 38,712 41,410 39,807 39,530 37,559 33,950 Pre-Provision profit/(loss) 26,089 19,999 20,032 14,690 18,608 23,743 Bad debt expense 5,849 3,851 3,721 4,272 4,418 4,734 Operating Profit 20,240 16,148 16,311 10,417 14,190 19,009 Pre-tax associates 2,325 2,532 2,556 2,528 2,528 2,528 Pre-tax profit 22,565 18,680 18,867 12,945 16,718 21,537 Tax 4,765 3,975 3,771 2,991 3,845 4,954 Other post tax items -2,169 -1,590 -2,524 -2,709 -2,709 -2,709 Stated net profit 15,631 13,115 12,572 7,245 10,164 13,875 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 Extraordinary & Other items -935 2,456 542 4,665 2,503 0 Bad Debt Provisioning 0 0 0 0 0 0 Investment reval, cap gains / losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 DB adj. core earnings 14,696 15,571 13,114 11,910 12,666 13,875

Key Balance Sheet Items (USDm) & Capital Ratios

Risk-weighted assets 1,214,939 1,219,800 1,102,995 1,031,497 1,008,893 1,037,891 Interest-earning assets 992,089 974,660 924,454 871,641 871,516 895,581 Customer Loans 992,089 974,660 924,454 871,641 871,516 895,581 Total Deposits 1,370,653 1,350,642 1,289,586 1,231,224 1,219,635 1,234,060 Stated Shareholder Equity 174,615 177,510 171,943 172,926 176,526 183,529 Equals: Tangible Equity 146,078 149,933 147,338 150,321 153,921 160,924 Tier 1 capital 145,641 152,739 153,303 153,539 157,139 164,142 Tier 1 ratio (%) 12 13 14 15 16 16 o/w core tier 1 capital ratio (%) 10.8 10.9 11.9 12.7 13.2 13.3

Credit Quality

Gross NPLs/Total Loans(%) 3.67 3.00 2.57 3.00 3.00 3.00 Risk Provisions/NPLs(%) 42 42 40 40 40 40 Bad debt / Avg loans (%) 0.59 0.39 0.39 0.48 0.51 0.54 Bad debt/Pre-Provision Profit(%) 22.4 19.3 18.6 29.1 23.7 19.9

Growth Rates & Key Ratios

Growth in revenues (%) -5 -5 -3 -9 4 3 Growth in costs (%) -10 7 -4 -1 -5 -10 Growth in bad debts (%) -30 -34 -3 15 3 7 Growth in RWA (%) 8 0 -10 -6 -2 3 Net int. margin (%) 2.13 1.94 1.92 1.96 1.93 1.92 Cap.-market rev. / Total revs (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm Total loans / Total deposits (%) 72 72 72 71 71 73

ROTE Decomposition

Revenue % ARWAs 5.54 5.04 5.15 5.08 5.51 5.64 Net interest revenue % ARWA 3.04 2.85 2.80 2.93 3.02 3.08 Non interest revenue % ARWA 2.50 2.19 2.35 2.15 2.48 2.55 Costs/income ratio (%) 59.7 67.4 66.5 72.9 66.9 58.8 Bad debts % ARWAs 0.50 0.32 0.32 0.40 0.43 0.46 Tax rate (%) 23.5 24.6 23.1 28.7 27.1 26.1 Adj. Attr. earnings % ARWA 1.06 1.07 0.91 0.88 0.99 1.11 Capital leverage (ARWA/Equity) 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.2 6.7 6.5 ROTE (Adj. earnings/Ave. equity) 8.7 8.8 7.1 6.3 6.7 7.2

Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates

22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


Key charts

Figure 1: CET1 forecasts Figure 2: TNAV per share forecasts

10.8%9.8%

11.1%11.9%

12.7%13.2% 13.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e

748776 780

748 748 750 767

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e



Figure 3: Dividend forecasts Figure 4: EPS forecasts (adjusted)

45.049.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e

94.7

78.881.7

67.2

59.9 62.466.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e



Figure 5: Adjusted revenue forecast Figure 6: Impairments / average loans

62,877

61,929

57,804

56,080 56,166

57,693

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e

0.59%

0.39% 0.39%

0.48%0.51%

0.54%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e



22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


4Q15 results review

Miss on impairments and income

HSBC reported 4Q15 & FY15 results today. For the quarter, stated PBT was

US$858m and attributable profit was US$1,325m. As usual, there are a

number of one-off items called out by the company, with US$1,177m of

revenue items to add back (DVA, own credit spread, loss on sale of real estate

in US, disposal costs in Brazil, non-qualifying hedges, and a small provision for

Consumer Credit Act), as well as US$1,585 of cost items to add back (UK

customer redress, disposal costs in Brazil, Restructuring costs, costs to

establish UK ring-fenced bank, litigation provisions). Adjusting for these, 4Q15

PBT was US$1,904m – a clear miss to DB estimates (US3,090m), and cons

(adjusted) of US$3,593m. Of this miss around 75% was driven by higher loan

losses.

Figure 7: Group earnings vs expectations

Group 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15a 4Q15e relDB YoY% QoQ% 4Q15 cons

relCons

Net Interest Income 8,547 8,274 8,170 8,028 8,059 7,933 2% -6% 0% 8,131 -1%

Non interest Income (net of claims) 5,759 7,618 8,881 7,057 3,713 5,526 -33% -36% -47% 5,651 -34%

Total Income 14,306 15,892 17,051 15,085 11,772 13,459 -13% -18% -22% 13,782 -15%

Costs -11,892 -8,845 -10,342 -9,039 -11,542 -11,378 1% -3% 28% -11,329 2%

Pre-provision profit 2,414 7,047 6,709 6,046 230 2,081 -89% -90% -96% 2,453 -91%

Loan impairments -1,250 -570 -869 -638 -1,644 -738 123% 32% 158% -961 71%

Associates 567 582 729 689 556 544 2% -2% -19% 558 0%

PBT 1,731 7,059 6,569 6,097 -858 1,887 -145% -150% -114% 2,050 -142%

Taxation -966 -1,367 -1,540 -634 -230 -434 -47% -76% -64% n/a

Minorities & Preference -254 -433 -670 -234 -237 -400 -41% -7% 1% n/a

Attributable Profit 511 5,259 4,359 5,229 -1,325 1,053 -226% -359% -125% 357 -471%

Revenue adjustments 190 486 1,685 1,041 -1,177 0 -230

Cost adjustments -1,341 -319 -1,226 -456 -1,585 -1,180 -1,313

Underlying P&L (Company adj)

Income 14,116 15,406 15,366 14,044 12,949 13,459 -4% -8% -8% 14,012 -8%

Costs -10,551 -8,526 -9,116 -8,583 -9,957 -10,198 -2% -6% 16% -10,016 -1%

PPP 3,565 6,880 6,250 5,461 2,992 3,261 -8% -16% -45% 3,996 -25%

Loan impairments -1,250 -570 -869 -638 -1,644 -738 123% 32% 158% -961 71%

Associates 567 582 729 689 556 567 -2% -2% -19% 558 0%

Adjusted PBT 2,882 6,892 6,110 5,512 1,904 3,090 -38% -34% -65% 3,593 -47%


On this adjusted basis Q4 income was a 4% miss to us / 8% miss vs

consensus, driven by weaker commercial banking revenues as well as a lower

contribution from ‘other division’ income. Costs were slightly better than

consensus and DBe, but not enough to offset the revenue weakness, leading

to an 8% miss at the PPP level. Loan impairments were materially higher than

DBe and consensus, at US$1.6bn vs DBe of US$738m and consensus of

US$961m. This was driven by charges in the oil & Gas sector, higher collective

impairments in Brazil (economic slowdown) and the US (lower releases).

22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


TNAV was as 3% miss to consensus / 4% miss to DBe, however CET1 was in

line at 11.9% driven by RWAs US$30bn / 3% lower than expected which offset

the miss on CET1 capital. The dividend was 51c for the year, in line with DBe

and consensus.

Key items in the results

1. Income performance

Income was seasonally lower for 4Q, though up YoY at GBM – a better than

expected performance. However performance in RBWM and Commercial

Banking was weaker than expected. RWAs have been reducing (Figure 9) and

we suspect revenues have been impacted as a result. Management guided for

US$400m of GBM revenue impact from RWA reduction at the June investor

day, and today suggested that revenue impact from RWA reduction achieved

so far (US$70bn) had been in line.

Figure 8: Total underlying income by division Figure 9: RWAs (US$bn) by division

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

RBWM Commercial Banking

GBM GPB Other

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

RBWM Commercial Banking

GBM GPB Other

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15



Commenting on the first 6-7 weeks of 2016, CFO Iain Mackay said (DB

emphasis):

So, on the revenue front, if we look at sort of first six or seven weeks of activity

in 2016, broadly speaking, commercial banking, pretty supported, pretty well-

supported, reasonably optimistic outlook in many of the markets. It's obviously, I

think the outlook, if you like, the overall environment is probably a bit doom and

gloomish. But when you look at the numbers coming through, reasonably

constructive in the CMB front, reasonably constructive on retail bank wealth

management. Certainly in wealth, the wealth management front in Asia, it's

certainly a little bit slower than it was in the first quarter of last year, but again

reasonably constructive. And I think as you would fully expect in global banking

markets, given some of the activity we've seen in the marketplace, the markets

business has been certainly facing some headwinds in January in the first couple

of weeks of February. Global Banking, broadly speaking, as expected but I think

and around, I certainly wouldn't like to try and project that the whole year based

on the first six or seven weeks of trade but certainly CMB and Retail Bank or

Wealth Management and Global Banking, broadly speaking, fairly supportive.

2. Cost performance

Cost performance was better for 4Q15: excluding the bank levy and one-off

costs, expenses were down QoQ and YoY in the bank – a good performance.

Cost control appears to have been across the group (Figure 11).

22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


Figure 10: Cost performance (underlying) Figure 11: Cost performance by division (underlying)

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

-5,000

-4,500

-4,000

-3,500

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

RBWMCommercial

Banking GBM GPB Other

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15



Looking further ahead, HSBC is targeting US$4-4.5bn of cost-to-achieve

spend, as well as US$1-2bn of costs to establish the UK ring fenced bank. Our

forecasts assume US$6.1bn of spend in total, of which around US$0.8bn has

been taken so far. We expect the large portion of this to fall in 2016, which will

impact stated profitability.

Our costs forecasts (on an adjusted and stated basis) are shown in Figure 13.

Our forecast of US$33.9bn (including the bank levy) in 2018 compares with

HSBC’s run-rate target of US$32.1bn for 2017 exit.

If HSBC was to hit this target (all other things equal) is would represent a

US$1.8bn upgrade to DB forecasts for 2018, or around 10% of adjusted

earnings.

Figure 12: CTA forecasts Figure 13: Cost forecasts

-743

-2,400

-1,550

-61

-700 -700

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

FY15e FY16e FY17e

Costs-to-achieve

Costs to establish UK ring-fenced bank

-42.9

-38.7-41.4

-39.8 -39.5-37.6

-33.9-36.7 -38.1

-36.3 -35.4 -34.3

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e FY18e

US$

bn

Stated costs Underlying costs



3. Impairments

Impairments were higher QoQ, driven in particularly by Commercial Banking

and retail. Though this is a large swing QoQ, within historical context,

impairment rates remain very low (Figure 15).

22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


Figure 14: Impairments by quarter Figure 15: Impairment rate by business division

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

RBWMCommercial

Banking GBM GPB Other

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

1H

04

2H

04

1H

05

2H

05

1H

06

2H

06

1H

07

2H

07

1H

08

2H

08

1H

09

2H

09

1H

10

2H

10

1H

11

2H

11

1H

12

2H

12

1H

13

2H

13

1H

14

2H

14

1H

15

2H

15

RBWM Commercial Banking GBM

GPB Other Total



HSBC took c.US$400mn of loan impairment charges in relation to the oil and

gas sector in 4Q2015 ($500mn in FY2015) – the largest driver of the overall

impairment increase. This charge reflects HSBC’s expectation that energy

prices will stay low throughout 2016 ($30 a barrel).

At FY2015, overall oil-and-gas exposure was $29 billion (vs $24bn at FY2014),

or 2% of wholesale drawn risk exposures. 95% of exposures have a credit risk

rating of 1 to 6. In terms of external ratings, c.60% of the book is investment

grade (AAA to BBB-) and c.35% is BB+ to B. 50% of exposures are to state-

owned oil companies, 18% is to the integrated oil companies, 13% to

independent companies, 9% to oil services, 5% infrastructure, and 4% to

traders, and 1% to refiners. Split of the book by type, geography and credit

quality are shown in the following figures.

Figure 16: Oil & gas exposure by type Figure 17: Oil & gas exposure by geography

14bn

8bn

5bn

2bnIntegrated producers

Service companies

Pure producers

Infrastructure companies

FY2015 oil and gas exposures

By company type:

9bn

7bn6bn

5bn

2bnNorth AmericaAsiaEuropeMiddle East and North AfricaLatin America

By geography:

Source: Company presentation


22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


Figure 18: Oil & gas exposure credit quality

95%

3%2%

Credit quality

CRR 1-6

CRR 7-8Impaired

- CRR 1-6: broadly equivalent to an external rating of B- or better

- CRR 7-8 Broadly equivalent to an external rating ranging from CCC+


4. Dividends & capital

HSBC announced an interim dividend of $0.21, for a FY2015 DPS of $0.51

(+$0.01 vs FY2014), which was in-line with DBe and Consensus. HSBC also

printed a CET1 of 11.9%, in line with expectations.

HSBC confirmed it would be pursuing a progressive dividend policy and called

out two key drivers of future dividend growth. First, the long-term overall

profitability of the group, including the outlook for profit generation and

growth over the next 12-24 months. Second, the extent to which the group is

able to redeploy RWAs away from underperforming businesses and into

businesses that ultimately improve RoE to above 10%.

We expect dividends to continue building at 1c per year from the 51c in 2015.

Our model assumes a 30% scrip portion (33% scrip in 2015). Buybacks /

neutralization of the scrip appear to us to remain a way off given that capital

remains below the 13% level (12-13% is the target). Management commented

that if they did launch a buyback program they would want it to be

sustainable. Our CET1 forecast builds from 11.9% at 2015 to 12.7% at end of

2016 (aided by 60bps from the sale of Brazil), and then reaching 13% in 2017e

& 2018e.

Figure 19: Dividend forecasts (US$c) and yield Figure 20: CET1 forecasts

45.0

49.050.0

51.052.0

53.054.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e

DPS Dividend yield (%) Cash Dividend yield (%)

10.8%9.8%

11.1%11.9%

12.7%13.2% 13.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e



22 February 2016

Banks

HSBC Holdings Plc


Forecast changes

We reduce our forecasts by 6-17% at the underlying PBT level, driven by

weaker income, higher impairments, offset by better costs. Adjusted earnings

are also impacted by 9-14% due to these effects, as well as higher AT1 coupon

costs than previously forecast.

Figure 21: Forecast changes

2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018eNII 32,405 31,303 31,074 32,062 32,531 31,247 30,854 31,559 126 -56 -221 -503 0% 0% -1% -2%OOI 29,082 24,639 26,269 26,811 27,308 22,974 25,313 26,134 -1,774 -1,665 -956 -677 -6% -7% -4% -3%Total income 61,487 55,942 57,343 58,873 59,839 54,220 56,166 57,693 -1,648 -1,722 -1,177 -1,180 -3% -3% -2% -2%Opex -39,604 -39,942 -37,201 -34,352 -39,807 -39,530 -37,559 -33,950 -203 412 -358 402 1% -1% 1% -1%PPP 21,883 16,000 20,142 24,521 20,032 14,690 18,608 23,743 -1,851 -1,310 -1,535 -778 -8% -8% -8% -3%LLPs -2,815 -3,474 -3,786 -4,403 -3,721 -4,272 -4,418 -4,734 -906 -798 -631 -331 32% 23% 17% 8%Underlying PBT 19,068 12,526 16,356 20,118 16,311 10,417 14,190 19,009 -2,757 -2,108 -2,166 -1,109 -14% -17% -13% -6%Associates 2,544 2,541 2,541 2,541 2,556 2,588 2,528 2,528 12 47 -13 -13 0% 2% -1% -1%Stated PBT 21,612 15,067 18,897 22,659 18,867 13,005 16,718 21,537 -2,745 -2,061 -2,179 -1,122 -13% -14% -12% -5%Tax / Minorities / AT1 -5,712 -5,202 -6,083 -6,949 -6,295 -5,700 -6,554 -7,663 -583 -498 -471 -714 10% 10% 8% 10%Earnings 15,900 9,864 12,814 15,711 12,572 7,305 10,164 13,875 -3,328 -2,559 -2,650 -1,836 -21% -26% -21% -12%Adjusted earnings 14,459 13,907 14,336 15,182 13,114 11,910 12,666 13,875 -1,345 -1,997 -1,670 -1,307 -9% -14% -12% -9%

EPS stated (US$c) 82 49 63 75 64 37 50 67 -17.7 -12.7 -13.0 -8.5 -22% -26% -21% -11%EPS adjusted (US$c) 82 50 63 75 67 60 62 67 -14.8 10.3 -0.6 -8.7 -18% 21% -1% -11%DPS (US$c) 50 52 53 54 51 52 53 54 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 2% 1% 1% 1%BVPS (US$c) 914 949 959 981 873 857 856 871 -40.5 -91.3 -102.6 -109.5 -4% -10% -11% -11%TBVPS (US$c) 776 824 836 861 748 745 746 763 -27.5 -78.9 -90.4 -97.6 -4% -10% -11% -11%

Divisional PBT 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2014 2015e 2016e 2017eRB&WM 5,770 5,349 5,797 6,543 4,967 5,731 5,586 6,329 -803 382 -211 -214 -14% 7% -4% -3%Commercial Banking 8,735 8,347 8,693 9,093 7,973 6,857 7,485 8,139 -762 -1,489 -1,208 -953 -9% -18% -14% -10%GB&M 7,945 8,122 8,124 8,522 7,910 7,998 8,118 8,521 -35 -124 -5 -1 0% -2% 0% 0%GPB 301 392 498 601 344 419 634 780 43 27 136 179 14% 7% 27% 30%Other -1,139 -7,142 -4,215 -2,099 -2,327 -8,000 -5,105 -2,232 -1,188 -858 -890 -133 104% 12% 21% 6%Total 21,612 15,067 18,897 22,659 18,867 13,005 16,718 21,537 -2,745 -2,061 -2,179 -1,122 -13% -14% -12% -5%

OLD FORECASTS NEW FORECASTS CHANGES (£m) CHANGES (%)


This leaves HSBC trading at 10x 2017 EPS, 0.8x TNAV for a dividend yield of 8-

8.5%, representing a cash yield of 5.4-6.0%. This compares with the sector

trading at 0.8x 2017, and 9x 2017 EPS.

Figure 22: HSBC valuation multiples

2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e

Shares (m's, Fully diluted) 18,271 18,654 19,056 19,517 19,885 20,310 20,760

P/E (Group Adj.) 6.7 8.0 7.7 9.4 10.6 10.1 9.5

P/PPP 4.5 4.5 6.0 6.2 8.5 6.9 5.5

P/BVPS 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.72

P/TBVPS 0.85 0.82 0.81 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82

Dividend yield (%) 7.1% 7.7% 7.9% 8.1% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5%

% Scrip 33% 28% 29% 33% 30% 30% 30%

Cash Dividend yield (%) 4.8% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%

Payout ratio (stated, %) 61% 58% 73% 79% 142% 106% 81%

RoTE (adjusted) 13.3% 10.3% 10.5% 8.8% 8.0% 8.3% 8.8%

CRDIV CET1 10.8% 9.8% 11.1% 11.9% 12.7% 13.2% 13.3%

T1 leverage 4.5% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4%

PPP ($'m) 25,403 26,089 19,999 20,032 14,750 18,608 23,743

EPS (stated) 73.6 83.8 68.8 64.4 36.7 50.0 66.8

EPS (adjusted) 94.7 78.8 81.7 67.2 59.9 62.4 66.8

DPS 45.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0

BVPS 909 927 924 873 861 860 875

TBVPS 748 776 780 748 748 750 767 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data, priced at 49.15HKD

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Valuation & Risks

We use two methodologies to value HSBC: Sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) and

Dividend-Discount-Model (DDM); our 12-month target price is the average of

the two. We assume a 11% cost of equity and a 3% growth rate (which we

think reflects long-run loan growth for the business). For the SoTP, we use

2017e bank earnings, and then value each business division based on our

assessment of appropriate P/E multiples. We also apply a conglomerate

discount of 10%, and time value of money to convert our 2017E SOTP to a 12

month target.

Our TP falls from 55.6HKD to 47.8HKD, driven principally by earnings

downgrades, partially offset by FX movements. Given limited downside to our

TP, we retain our Hold rating.

Figure 23: Valuation

2015 2016 2017 2018

DPS 51 52 53 54

Discounting factor 1.00 1.00 1.09 1.21

Present value 51.2 52.2 48.5 44.5

RoTE adj. (2018E) 8.8%

g 3%

CoE 11%

P/TBV 0.73

TBV 2018E 766.9

TV 557.3

PV of TV 459.0

PV of Cumulative Dividend 196.4

Excess Capital Per Share @13% CET1 Ratio (2015E) -65.7

PV of Excess Capital -66.0

Fair Value (USD) 589.4

Fair Value (GBp) 4579.8

USD/GBP 7.77

HSBC SOTP (2017E)

Net profit

(2017E)

Average

RWAs

(USD'm

2017E)

Ave

allocated

TNAV

(USD'm)

2017E P/E P/TNAV

Value

(USD'm)

Value per

share

RBWM 4,686 179,667 26,790 9.0x 1.6 42,176 207.7

Commercial Banking 5,840 409,949 61,127 9.0x 0.9 52,564 258.8

GBM 6,405 378,257 56,402 7.0x 0.8 44,836 220.8

GPB 526 19,397 2,892 12.0x 2.2 6,317 31.1

Other -2,083 32,926 4,910 7.0x -3.0 -14,580 -71.8

HSBC Group 15,375 1,020,195 152,121 8.5 0.9 131,313 646.5

Minus Minorities and hybrids -2,709 8.5x -23,136 -113.9

Total FV 12,666 108,177 533

Less conglomerate discount 10% -10,818 -53.3

FV net 97,359 585.9

12-month target (USD) 640.7

12-month target (GBp) 4978.6 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Key upside risks are an improvement in Emerging Markets outlook, lower than

expected loan losses, better-than-expected outcomes for regulation, lower

costs. Key downside risks relate to regulatory change, legacy liabilities, and a

slowdown in emerging markets

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Appendix 1

Important Disclosures

Additional information available upon request

Disclosure checklist

Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure

HSBC Holdings Plc 0005.HK 49.20 (HKD) 22 Feb 16 14,17 *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr.

Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators

Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.

14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this company within the past year.

Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators

Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.

17. Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds, Convertible Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the following issuer(s), or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m Euros.

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/Disclosure.eqsr?ricCode=0005.HK

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. David Lock

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Historical recommendations and target price: HSBC Holdings Plc (0005.HK) (as of 2/22/2016)

1

23 45

6

78 910

11

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 May 15 Aug 15 Nov 15

Secu

rity

Pri

ce

Date

Previous Recommendations

Strong Buy Buy Market Perform Underperform Not Rated Suspended Rating

Current Recommendations

Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating

*New Recommendation Structure as of September 9,2002

1. 24/02/2014: Hold, Target Price Change HKD88.00 7. 13/02/2015: Hold, Target Price Change HKD73.00





6. 03/11/2014: Hold, Target Price Change HKD80.00

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

53 %

36 %

11 %20 %17 % 17 %

050

100150200250300350400450500

Buy Hold Sell

Asia-Pacific Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

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Regulatory Disclosures

1.Important Additional Conflict Disclosures

Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the

"Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

2.Short-Term Trade Ideas

Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are

consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the

SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com.

22 February 2016

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Research

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