http://institute.nsta.org/web_seminars.asp noaa/nsta web seminar: the ocean’s role in weather and...
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http://institute.nsta.org/web_seminars.asp
NOAA/NSTA Web Seminar:
The Ocean’s Role in Weather and Climate
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
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The influence of the Atlantic ocean on climate, from Atlantic hurricanes to African drought
Thomas L. Delworth
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAAPrinceton, NJ
Outline:
1. Basics of the Atlantic Ocean
2. Multidecadal changes in the Atlantic: impact on climatea. African droughtb. Conditions for tropical stormsc. Hemispheric temperature
3. Global warming and the Atlantic
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from “Earth's Climate Past and Future”, Ruddiman.
Schematic of Atlantic Ocean Circulation
Ocean movesheat poleward
1.3*1015 Watts
Sinking waterat high latitudes
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Question: The rate of heat (energy) transported by the Atlantic ocean is ~1.3 *1015 Watts. The amount of energy moved poleward by the Atlantic Ocean each year is the equivalent to approximately how many years of total U.S. electricity generation:
1 year
100 years
1000 years
2000 years
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Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature
(60oW-20
oW,6
oN-18
oN)
Tropical North Atlantic
Tem
per
atu
re (
Deg
C)
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Outline:
1. Basics of the Atlantic Ocean
2. Multidecadal changes in the Atlantic: impact on climatea. African droughtb. Conditions for tropical stormsc. Hemispheric temperature
3. Global warming and the Atlantic
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Atlantic Ocean Temperature
(80oW-0
oW,0
oN-60
oN)
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Observed change in Sea Surface Temperature (Deg C) 1996-2005 minus 1970-1990
Data fromAug-Oct
Where did the largest
warming take
place?
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Tree ring records show that AMO-like fluctuationshave existed for centuries.
Gray et al., 2004, Geophysical Research Letters
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How can we better understand (and predict) the impact of the North Atlantic ocean on climate?
1. Diagnostic analyses of observational data
2. Use computer models of the climate system to better understand how the climate system works (cause and effect) and to predict its future evolution
Computer climate model is a “Virtual Earth”, in which we can perform many experiments to better understand the system.
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In models, the earth’s land, ocean and atmosphere are chopped into 5 million grid cells.
Horizontal Grid (Latitude-Longitude)
Vertical Grid (Height or Pressure)
Climate models use world’s fastest supercomputers … but needcomputers that are 1000 times faster (at least!).
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Where is climate modeling done?
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Where is climate modeling done?
CANADA
USA
Princeton, NJ
New York, NY
Boulder, Colorado
ENGLAND GERMANY JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
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ObservedPrecipitation(mm/month)100 mm/month isabout 50 inches per year
Data from Univ. ofEast Anglia, Climatic ResearchUnit (CRU)
Seasonal migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
January
July
Sahel
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1950-2000 trends in observed and simulated precipitation
(JAS)
Observed Simulated
(Atmosphere model forced with observed SSTs 1950-2000)
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Simulated rainfall changes Modeled AMO Index
Observed rainfall changes Observed AMO Index
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Let’s do a poll question!
The rainy season in the Sahel region of Africa is:
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Simulated Summer Rainfall Changes Associated with Warm North Atlantic
Units: cm/day
Blue means more rainfallwhen the North Atlanticis warm
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Simulated multidecadal JJAS surface air temperature difference (K) (1931-1960) – (1961-1990)
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Question: The Sahel region of Africa is particularly prone to drought because:
It is located far from the
ocean
It is located in a region of sharp transition between tropical
rainforests to the south and desert to the north
The mountainous terrain blocks moisture from
the ocean
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NOAA National Hurricane Center 2005 Outlook
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Reduction in Wind Shear when North Atlantic Warms relative to South Atlantic
Observations Model (GFDL CM2.1)
Red means less shear, and therefore more favorable conditions for hurricanes.
CONCLUSION: Models demonstrate that a warming North Atlantic (relative to the South Atlantic) CAUSES atmospheric circulation changes that are favorable for tropical activity.
Zhang and Delworth, 2006
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Outline:
1. Basics of the Atlantic Ocean
2. Multidecadal changes in the Atlantic: impact on climatea. African droughtb. Conditions for tropical stormsc. Hemispheric temperature
3. Global warming and the Atlantic
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Let’s do a poll question!
If all emissions of carbon dioxide were stopped tomorrow, how long
would the ocean continue to warm?
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You are here (now)
What the Climate Models Predict:
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Observed and Modeled Tropical North Atlantic SST
Modeled (GFDL CM2.1)
Observed
Steady or slightly cooling temps
RapidWarming
Key uncertainty:Role of aerosolsIn late 20th century
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Looking at 21st Century SimulationsProjected Atlantic SST Change (relative to 1991-2004 mean)
Areal average70
oW-0
oW
0oN-60
oN
Results fromGFDL CM2.1Global ClimateModel(SRES A1B)
ObservedTrend from 1950-2004
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Summary/Discussion
- Atlantic Ocean plays a crucial role in climate through transporting large amounts of heat from the Tropics to higher latitudes.
- Multidecadal fluctuations in ocean circulation have strong influence on climate, including African and Indian monsoon rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and North American temperature.
- Increasing greenhouse gases are significantly warming
the Atlantic, and will continue to do so in the future.
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National Science Teachers AssociationGerry Wheeler, Executive Director
Frank Owens, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs
Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
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