human agent collectives crisis response journal september 2014

Human-agent collectives

How we can form symbiotic relationships between humans and machines, and how these could help

during response to large-scale emergencies and disasters

David Jones, Commanding Officer of Rescue Global and Member of Crisis Response Journal’s Editorial Advisory Panel

www.crisis-response.com

Volume 10:1 September 2014

¡

The international resource for resilience, response and security planning

print • online • digital

Now in its tenth year

Read Crisis Response Journal in print, on iPad, Android or online

Individual, institutional (including unlimited digital downloads), digital only and student rates available

Subscribe now: Contact us on +44 (0)20816691690 or email: [email protected]

CR

ISIS

| RE

SP

ON

SE

V

O L

: 10 | I S

S U

E : 1 | S

EP

TE

MB

ER

20

14

CRISIS | RESPONSE V O L : 1 0 | I S S U E : 1 | S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 W W W . C R I S I S - R E S P O N S E . C O M J O U R N A L

CRJ IS TEN YEARS OLDA decade of exploring crisis response lifelines

PLUS � India building collapse � Search & Rescue in Iran � Queensland climate adaptation � Terrorism in Pakistan � Bioweapons & bacterial resistance

� Training Syria’s rescuers � Interview: Sir David King � Smart, resilient cities � Future technology

Ten

th a

nn

ive

rsa

ry e

ditio

n | In

dia

bu

ildin

g c

olla

ps

e | C

lima

te c

ha

ng

e in

Au

stra

lia | S

ma

rt, res

ilien

t citie

s fe

atu

re | F

utu

re te

ch

no

log

y fe

atu

re | S

yria

’s re

sc

ue

rs

CRISIS | RESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSERESPONSE S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4 S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4

| S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 4

| W W W . C R I S I S - R E S P O N S E . C O MW W W . C R I S I S - R E S P O N S E . C O MW W W . C R I S I S - R E S P O N S E . C O M J O U R N A L J O U R N A L J O U R N A L J O U R N A L

RESILIENCEVisionary crisis leadership

EVOLUTIONFuture disaster medicine

SENTIENCECities empowering people

CRISIS | RESPONSE

WE ARE ENTERING our tenth volume of CRJ, which was

launched a decade ago. The nature of the publication means celebration is inappropriate; too many incidents have occurred over this time, too many lives lost. But it is, nonetheless, a gratifying milestone.

Our founding ethos still holds true: to bridge any institutional, organisational and national gaps, to share information, enhance partnership working and improve communication. It has been good to see how dialogue between various disciplines and organisations has evolved, as shown by the increasing diversity of actors and stakeholders who have become involved in the conversation through our pages.

Despite this, in many ways the world feels no safer. The Hydra of wicked problems sometimes appears invincible, the same incidents repeating themselves, locked in a dispiritingly familiar cycle. Each time we absorb the horror of a disaster or terrorist attack, a bigger, more destructive one seems to surpass it.

The risk landscape has shifted in a decade: climate change has been added to the list of threats, exacerbating existing hazards. But the response, resilience and emergency planning community has developed accordingly in terms of leadership acuity, interagency co-operation, mutual assistance and business continuity.

And it is fascinating to observe the proliferation of emerging technology – ten years ago we hadn’t heard of Twitter, YouTube, the Internet of Things, smart cities… Of course, these bring their own vulnerabilities and can be exploited to cause harm, but their potential for improving safety and resilience should not be overlooked.

So is with gratitude that we thank our sponsors, many of whom helped to launch CRJ ten years ago. Thanks also to our Editorial Advisory Panel – those who have been with us since the start and those who joined us along the way – and to the writers who have generously shared their thoughts, knowledge and experience. And an immense thank you to our subscribers.

To paraphrase Camus, most people are good rather than bad; it is usually ignorance that causes harm, despite good intentions. And this is why sharing experience and information is so vital: you are all working to eradicate ignorance and make the world a safer place.

It is a privilege to observe and report on this. Emily Hough

comment

@SyriaCivilDef Keryn van der Walt | National Sea Rescue Institute

Rescue in conditions of war p70 Bhopal 30 years on p81

contents Cover story: CRJ’s Tenth anniversary

Main artwork: Neil Webb Inset images: Eureka Entertainment | Shutterstock

A look at Johannesburg.................................46Is Johannesburg a world-class African city? Yes, and no, according to Hilary Phillips

A living laboratory.........................................50The campus of Lille University in Northern France has been turned into an experiment to demonstrate smart city concepts, write Isam Shahrour and his team

Future technologyEmpowering people ......................................52The day when cities become smarter than their citizens are approaching, according to Robert Ouellette

Spatial services ............................................55Dr Hervé Borrion says spatialised social networks might protect people and provide help in emergencies

Evolution of disaster medicine ......................56There is an increased imperative to develop and implement novel technologies to help medical professionals in disaster situations. Here’s a glimpse of the future

Emerging technologies .................................61J P Vielleux describes real-time innovations in disasters

Human-agent collectives ..............................62David Jones describes a project that looks at forming symbiotic relationships between increasingly independent computer systems and user communities

Unleashing the power of UAVs ......................64Glenn Smith joins the debate, exploring the positive potential of drones in emergency situations

Earth observation ......................................... 66The potential contribution of space-based information to disaster risk management is not being fully exploited, say Antje Hecheltjen and Anne Pustina

In depthBusiness excellence and new technology .....68Mike Hall says it is time to embrace the business benefi ts that emerging technology can bring

USAR in an active war zone ..........................70James Le Mesurier looks at how community responders in Syria are being trained in urban search and rescue

Beyond the resilience apex ...........................72Brett Lovegrove refl ects on how leaders need to think more differently today than ever before when approaching business resilience and continuity

Facing biological risk ....................................74Nicolae Steiner looks at the twin threats of biological attacks and of increasing bacterial resistance to antibiotics, and the prospect of an interaction between the two

Civil protection in Georgia ............................76The Republic of Georgia is the fi rst country to be profi led by this new series on the International Civil Defence Organisation and its members

RegularsEvents ...........................................................78EU response to Balkan floods .......................80Looking back: Bhopal ....................................81Frontline ........................................................82

3 Crisis Response Journal 10:1

Editor in ChiefEmily [email protected]

Sales ManagerSacha [email protected]

Design and ProductionTim Baggaleywww.graphicviolence.co.uk

Subscriptions and administration Emma [email protected]

Director Colin [email protected]

DirectorPeter [email protected]

SubscriptionsCrisis Response Journal is published quarterly; it is available by subscription in hard copy, digital format and online. Association discounts, institutional and multiple rates are available; visit our website or contact us for more detailsTel: +44 (0) 208 1661690subs@fi re.org.uk

Back issuesExisting subscribers: £25 (US$45; €36) per issueNon subscribers: £40 (US$72; €58) per issueTel: +44 (0) 208 1661690backissues@fi re.org.uk

Published by FireNet International LtdPOB 6269, Thatcham, RG19 9JXUnited KingdomTel: +44 (0) 208 1661690mail@fi re.org.uk www.crisis-response.comwww.fi re.org.uk

COPYRIGHT FireNet International Ltd 2014 Articles published in Crisis Response Journal may not be reproduced in any form without the prior written permission of the Editor in ChiefPrinted in England by Buxton PressISSN 1745-8633

Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions

www.crisis-response.com join the CRJ LinkedIn group

follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

September 2014 | vol:10 | issue:1

Earth observation p66Search & Rescue in Iran p24

ISAR NASA

CRJ’s Sponsoring Partners are leading specialists in the crisis, security and emergency response disciplines

contentsNews ...............................................................4News extra ......................................................8Comment ......................................................10Tony Moore takes a comprehensive look at the incidents that occurred in the year of CRJ’s launch – 2004

AnalysisCompulsive un-safety ...................................16Satish Kumar Dogra examines why safety limits are being stretched in India

‘Green’ rescue kit ..........................................19One of our sponsoring partners, Holmatro, introduces its latest rescue tools

Climate change and the Fire Service ............20Shan Raffel describes a co-ordinated approach to manage the effects of climate change on emergency response provision in Queensland, Australia

Resilience peer review .................................22Helen Braithwaite leads us through a journey of discovery into the world of resilience partnership peer review

NGOsSearch and rescue in Iran .............................24Emily Hough speaks to Behrouz Moghaddasi, Head of Iranian SAR, about how he has helped to establish volunteer teams across the country

Volunteer searchers ......................................26Rachel Good and Andy Marshall take a closer look at the work of the Staffordshire Search and Rescue team in the UK

New team helps after disasters ....................28Alois Hirschmugl describes a new European team formed to help citizens when they are stranded in large-scale emergencies abroad

Exercise Angel Thunder ................................30In May 2014, Rescue Global took part in Exercise Angel Thunder, the world’s largest interagency search and rescue exercise, writes David Jones

Terrorism & securityGender-based violence .................................32Lina Kolesnikova reports on an increasing trend whereby some militant organisations are using gender-based violence as a terrorist tactic

Mapping out terrorism in Pakistan ................34Pakistan is home to many more terrorist organisations than the Taliban, says Luavut Zahid

Chemical potential ........................................38The perceived threat from terrorists using chemical weapons had declined in recent years. Dave Sloggett questions whether that is still the case

Smart, resilient cities Propelling us into the future ..........................40Emily Hough speaks to Sir David King to fi nd out more about the Future Cities Catapult initiative in the UK

Building city resilience ..................................45Applications closed for the next candidate cities in the 100 Resilient Cities Challenge in September 2014, writes Emily Hough. Which cities will make it onto the list?

2

DECIDING

Information aboutthe Task or Event

Information aboutResources

GATHERING ANDTHINKING

Information aboutRisk and Benefit

INFORMATIONON PROGRESS

COMMUNICATING

CONTROLLING

OBJECTIVES PLAN OUTCOME

ACTING

EVALUATING

62 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com

The Orchid Project, which involves the Universities of Oxford, Nottingham and Southampton, along with

Rescue Global, says: “The ways in which we work with computers are changing. Rather than issuing instructions to passive machines, humans and software agents will continually and fl exibly establish a range of collaborative relationships with one another, forming human-agent collectives (HACs).

“HACs provoke fundamental questions about how we might live with increasingly autonomous digital systems, what our relationships should be and even larger social and ethical issues of responsibility and accountability.”

This is an area of ongoing development by the project, which is developing HACs to enhance the capabilities of human teams using increasingly complex digital systems, without the need for considerable time and expense in training and maintaining t hese augmented abilities.

The Orchid team aims to drive the science of HACs to real-world applications in disaster response, the smart grid and citizen science.

During the recent Angel Thunder (AT) exercise (p30), researchers from the Orchid Project embedded with Rescue Global to complete an ethnographic study of how its staff plan missions, as well as how they use and interact with technology.

Using a common model to illustrate the lifecycle of how Rescue Global operates, taking a critical event (such as a disaster), the Orchid team plotted its observations in terms of actions, needs, events, as shown opposite. This allowed the team to identify key areas where technology helps, hampers or could be useful in augmenting Rescue Global’s operational effectiveness.

The challenges that Rescue Global faced in this area were largely the same as those reported by most of the military and civil organisations attending AT. These are common to many response organisations that respond to an event at relative high speed, where severe risk to life is present, few resources available, or

involving large distances or limited accessibility. The core needs in the early stages of an

operation include information on the task or event; this is important because planning must be centred on the truth of the situation and its context. Information on available resources is required so that once needs and tasks have been identifi ed, they can be prioritised according to urgency, taking current and future resources into account. The plans must also consider risk and benefi t as key factors in the decision-making process.

The above needs are well highlighted in the Decision Making Model (DMM) as utilised by the London Fire Brigade, adopted by Rescue Global as good practice (see below).

The Orchid team observed that by using the DMM, planners at the Silver Command location could quickly generate plans, give warning orders and facilitate concurrent activities geared towards rapid deployment and effect on the ground, without the need for 100 per cent information at the start.

Of course, the planners were not cavalier, neither did they act without enough information. They used well-practised

methodology to overlay a command and control structure that they were comfortable with onto a relatively new situation where several ‘unknowns’ still remained, thereby bringing some order to the chaos.

The Orchid team noted that work levels at Silver Command (Planning) were low when information was scarce. The team also observed that work and stress levels increased as information came in, coinciding with urgent need for output from the planners, so that the deployed team could receive useful taskings.

Rescue Global team used tracking devices, laptops, radio communications, databases and mapping tools. It set up its own 3G mobile network and satellite link, providing live audio and video from the disaster site, an interoperability system enabling communication with all agencies taking part, and also ensuring resilient communications with Gold Command in London, UK. Sometimes this created work as well as helping with it.

As anticipated, more could be done to empower the team, in some obvious, and some less obvious ways, both by integrating existing Orchid technology, and working together to

Human-agent collectivesDavid Jones describes a project exploring how we might form symbiotic relationships between human and machines, and how these could help during response to large-scale emergencies and disasters

Decision-making model

CRITICALEVENT

RECO

VERY PREVENTION & M

ITIGATION

RESPONSE P

REPARATION

AFTE

R TH

E EV

ENT

BEFORE THE EVENT

Risk Assessment& Planning

Pre-impactActivities

EmergencyManagement& Operations

Restorationof Infrastructure& Services

Reconstruction

63 join the CRJ LinkedIn group follow us on twitter @editorialcrj Crisis Response Journal 10:1

future technologydevelop new technology based upon mutual expertise and operational requirements.

“Effective disaster response requires rescue services to make critical decisions in the face of an uncertain and rapidly changing situation. Orchid Project aims to develop systems that allow fi rst responders and software agents to work effectively together in such situations to collect the best possible information from the environment (through diverse sources such as UAVs and crowd generated content), in order to most effectively manage and co-ordinate the various rescue resources available,” according to the Orchid Project.

It continues, listing key technologies as being: “Decentralised co-ordination algorithms that can effectively allocate resources in the absence of centralised control; Methodologies to handle autonomy fl exibly so that the decisions that are made autonomously by software agents can be continuously changed as needs arise; and the ability to track the provenance of information and decisions so that previous decisions can be updated as new information comes to light.”

The Figure below illustrates how the Rescue Global and Orchid collaboration affects the life cycle of disaster response operations.

Drawing out two of these areas of mutual interest (Provenance, and Flexible Autonomy), we see clear benefi ts. At the strategic level, there is a growing number of crowd-based solutions, virtual support teams offering scale when required, mobile applications encouraging citizen reporting, social media forums and industries offering a service in disaster response (Google, Microsoft and more have dedicated divisions for this).

Key challenges to all of these are the trust in,

and reliability of that which is not well known, being provided by ‘strangers’, and so potentially accepting risk data from unvetted sources.

Provenance is a possible solution. If proven to work, it could open up and add credibility to a wide range of support tools for responders, as well as actual response modalities themselves. Crowdsourcing information on an event, using reports from inside as well as outside of the area, is so much more appealing if proven algorithms and methods of verifi cation can be employed to turn masses of information and noise, into bite size pieces of intelligence, upon which decisions can be made.

Primary risk data“This goes to the heart of what Rescue Global is all about. We focus on gathering primary risk data in real time from the heart of a disaster, by sending headquarters and reconnaissance teams in as early as possible, in order to save lives by empowering others with the information they need,” says Anthony Hayward, COO of Rescue Global.

Becky Jones, Director of Risk & Performance, adds: “Rescue Global is working with our partners at Orchid to develop this area as fully as possible. The use of crowdsourced, dynamic and continuous data, if fi ltered and verifi ed, can add to initial information gathering operations, then to ongoing situational awareness, warn, inform and assessment operations, so long as the data can be collected, collated, verifi ed, analysed, and disseminated in quick time, without information overload or gross error.”

At the tactical level, as seen in the observations made earlier (low workload when low levels of information are available

and workload increasing when data comes in at speed), it is possible to enhance the human operator’s abilities without ceding complete control to the computer agent.

In August 2014, David Sexton, a pilot at Rescue Global, took part in a study where he was linked to a near infrared brain scanner to detect workload, while operating a simulated UAS (quadcopter type) in a SAR context. This process was repeated with the pilot having to control two and then three UAS, while being monitored.

Next, using an Orchid application for multi UAS control, he piloted the three UAS all at once. Feedback was positive: “The previous version saw me operating three UAS simultaneously. That was a real stretch. Now, the emphasis has gone from constant control inputs to the units, to being able to ‘select and forget’, leaving the operator free to monitor the feed more closely. I operated three UAS simultaneously and found all (SAR) targets with ease using the new interface. From our ops point of view, to be able to cover a large areas with multiple UAVs on just one battery cycle could have huge benefi ts.”

Technology in disaster response can be positive and genuinely useful. Its application must be based upon real needs, and be able to deliver real benefi ts, without operations being reliant upon a technological solution that has no manual fall-back. In this way, enhancements are made, and resilience is not compromised. CRJ

AuthorDavid Jones is Commanding Offi cer of Rescue Global and a Member of CRJ’s Editorial Advisory Panel

(www.rescueglobal.org; www.orchid.ac.uk)

Lessons learned

Performance Review of Commands

Performance Review of Operations

Training

Debrief

Reconnaissance

Search & Rescue

Communications & Camp

Set up Silver & Bronze

Command Support

Deployment

Risk Assessment

Global awareness

Partnerships

Diplomacy

Teams & Sta�

Skill Development

Specialised Roles Administration

Water & Rations

Personal Equipment

Tasks & Orders

Access & Permissions

Operations cycle and Orchid observations

Natural | Manmade disasters

Flexible autonomySituation awarenessDivision of labourMulti-UAV co-ordination

Agile teamingTeaming & mobilityResource allocationAtomicOrchid

Accountable information infrastructureSituation awarenessFiltering and relevanceTrustworthiness & uncertaintyProvenance

Incentive engineeringEngaging the local populationIncentivising volunteersCrowdsourcing platforms

Notable Orchid applications