human population trends 2006 update elizabeth willott the university of arizona © 2006...

Human Population Trends 2006 update

Elizabeth Willott

The University of Arizona

© 2006

[email protected]

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Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.” p. xi

Obtaining Data: Key SourcesMost statistics, unless otherwise indicated,

are from one or more of the following:

• US Census: International Datahttp://www.census.gov

• CIA World Factbook 2006http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook

• UN Population Divisionhttp://esa.un.org/unpp/

http://www.census.gov/

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook

http://esa.un.org/unpp/

The reason for the problem?

We became highly successful at controlling disease and death.

Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968

“Medical science, with its efficient public health programs, has been able to depress the death rate with astonishing rapidity and at the same time drastically increase the birth rate; healthier people have more babies.” (p.32)

DDT, an insecticide, worked effectively in reducing malaria in many developing countries.

E.g., Sri Lanka (then Ceylon)

Year Deaths per 1000 people

1946 22

1955 10

Note: this is not death rate due to malaria, but total death rate. Source: Ehrlich. The Population Bomb, 1971, p.16

RESULT:Many more babies since women lived through child-bearing age.

Also, Potential for many, many more babies since children did not die and instead grew to reproductive age.

Simple basic ecology:

Remove the predators (in this case the micropredators

such as microbial diseases) and the prey increase.

Net increase in a population is due to:• births, B= Birth rate• immigration, I= Immigration rate• emigration, E= Emigration rate• deaths, D= Death rate

dN/dt = (B + I) - (E + D)

If we consider the world population then dN/dt = Birthrate - Deathrate

For more info: EO Wilson, WH Bossart, A primer of population ecology, c1971, Sinauer Associates.NJ Gotelli, A primer of ecology, c1995, Sinauer Associates.

In classic population ecology,

If, for any given time period, Births > Deaths then Population will always be increasing,

And,IF Birth Rate and Death Rate are constants,

THEN, the population size is given by an exponential equation.

An Exponential Equation, like y = 2x, or, in this case Nf= Ni x 1.5x

0

40

80

120

160

200

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Was, or is, human population like this?

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

Year

Population in billions

Human Population to 1960

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

Year


Human Population to 2005

Source: UN Population Figures http://esa.un.org/unpp/






Projection and Reality

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year


Real

At 1960 rate

Projection and Reality

How is the gap best explained?What’s happened to

• Overall rate?• Birth rate?• Death rate?

World Population (in billions)1900 1.651910 1.751920 1.861930 2.071940 2.301950 2.521960 3.021970 3.701980 4.441990 5.272000 6.062005 6.46 http://esa.un.org/unpp/






World Population (in billions)1900 1.65 % increase1910 1.75 ((1.75/1.65)-1) x 1001920 1.861930 2.071940 2.301950 2.521960 3.021970 3.701980 4.441990 5.272000 6.062005 6.46 http://esa.un.org/unpp/






World Population (in billions)1900 1.65 % increase1910 1.75 6.11920 1.86 6.31930 2.07 11.31940 2.30 11.11950 2.52 9.61960 3.02 19.81970 3.70 22.51980 4.44 20.01990 5.27 18.72000 6.06 15.02005 6.46

Rate of Population Change per Decade

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900-19101910-19201920-19301930-19401940-19501950-19601960-19701970-19801980-19901990-2000

Years

% Change1900-1910

1910-1920

1920-1930

1930-1940

1940-1950

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

Decade

ProjectedMore Solid

Peak 2.19%, 1962-3Now 1.14% est 2006Apr 06 CIA Factbook est for 2006

Annual Growth Rate — World Population

I’ve presented data showing the world population is not increasing exponentially.

The growth rate has been decreasing.

What’s happening in absolute numbers of people added per year?

US Census Bureau. Accessed June 24, 2006. http://www.census.gov

Peak of 89 million in 1989

Now about 75 million

History and Estimates — Forecast Estimates

# People Added Per Year (5 year average)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-2005

Years

# in Millions

UN Population Data, 5 year averages, accessed Apr 18, 2006

*

# of People Added to World

1989 94.4 million people added.

2006 74.4 million.

Source: CIA World Factbook

(for 2006: world population x 0.0114)

The rate of increase has declined.

The absolute number of people added has started to decline.

Still, we have major increases.

1. What counts for the overall increase in population?

Many countries have shown dramatic decreases in death rates.

This is seen as

• an increase in longevity, or,

• decrease in mortality, or,

• in particular, decrease in infant mortality

Lifespan (World)

UN Population Division:

1950-1955: 46.6 years

2000-2005: 65.4 years

Increase of > 40%Source: http://esa.un.org/unpp/

CIA World Factbook: 1989: 62 years

2006: 65 yearsSource: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook (accessed June 22, 2006)














Infant Mortality: (worldwide rate)Infant mortality: death prior to 1 year of age

UN figures:

1950-1955: 157 / 1000

2000-2005: 57 / 1000 Source: UN Population Division, http://esa.un.org/unpp/ (accessed May 10, 2006)

CIA World Factbook:

2006 (est): 49 / 1000Source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook (accessed June 22, 2006)





More women survive through child-bearing years, more babies born.

More children survive to child-bearing years.

Therefore, potential exists for even more babies to be born.

This explosive burst is what Garrett Hardin and Paul Ehrlich, back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, envisioned happening.It didn’t.

Did women have more and more babies?

Worldwide

Births per Year (TOTAL numbers)

1950-1955: 99,044,000

2000-2005: 132,508,000Source: UN Population Division: http://esa.un.org/unpp/

There are more babies now, true.

But the population is much larger, too.

These numbers don’t support individual women having more and more babies.


Crude birth rate per year - Worldwide

Births per Year / Total Population

1950-1955: 0.099 million / 2,780 million

2000-2005: 0.133 million / 6,450 million

So, 35.63 births per thousand then

vs.

20.54 births per thousand now

(Above figures from UN; CIA Factbook gives estimate of 20.05 for birthrate/thousand for the world for 2006)

What’s the birthrate per population?

Worldwide:1950 5.0

2006(est) 2.6 (UN ); 2.59 (CIA Factbook)

Fertility Rate: Births per Woman(assumes woman lives through reproductive years)

Sources: UN Population: http://esa.un.org/unppCIA Factbook: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook

Replacement is ~2.1 for developed countries. Replacement is ~2.3 for world now.

What’s the birthrate per woman?

http://esa.un.org/unpp

One well-documented correlation:When women have educational opportunities, birth rate drops quickly.

Prehaps women having other opportunities is the key, not just educational ones. When women have other opportunities, birth rate drops relatively quickly.

The Point?

Women don’t seem to be like calculating shepherds—wanting as many children as they can bear as long as someone else is feeding them (as Hardin conjectured).

Nor do they seem to be solely biological automatons determined by evolution to bear babies in high number.

Examples:India GuatemalaHaiti United StatesIran ChinaPakistan IndonesiaSouth Africa NigerNigeria

(There are ~238 countries in the world.)

IndiaPopulation 1,095 million Pop. growth rate 1.38 %

Total fertility rate 2.73 children/women

Life expectancy at birth 64.71 yrs

Birth rate 22.01 / 1000 Death rate 8.18 / 1000

Median age 24.9 yrs HIV rate: 0.9 %

Infant mortality 54.63 / 1000 live births

Literacy rate 59.5 % Land phones: 67.3 million- Male 70.2 % Cell phones: 69.2 million- Female 48.3 % Internet users: 50.6 million

SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Andra Pradesh, India.

Area of very rapid economic and cultural change presently (last 15 years or so).Higher proportion of illiterate women now use birth control.Their daughters are much more likely to go to school.

Bhat, P. N. M. (2002). "Returning a favor: reciprocity between female education and fertility in India." World Development 30(10): 1791-1803.McNay, K. and P. Arokiasamy, R.H. Cassen (2003) Why are uneducated women in India using contraception? A multilevel analysis. Population Studies 57 (1) 21-40.

Education and Fertility

Education Level of Woman

FertilityRate of Woman(Family Size)

Fertility and Education

Family Size(particularly of illiterate mothers)

Education of Offspring

Children of illiterate mothers are more likely

to attend school if family size is limited

Andra Pradesh, India

Deccan Development Society: work with Dalit (untouchable) women to help them improve their livelihoods in Andra Pradesh.

This area is undergoing rapid social change co-incident with a dramatic decrease in fertility of illiterate women in recent years.

For article on DDS, see Rao, V. R. (2002). Women farmers of India's Deccan Plateau: ecofeminists challenge world elites. Environmental ethics: what really matters, what really works. D. Schmidtz and E. Willott. New York, Oxford University Press: 255-262.

The DDS in Andra Pradesh, IndiaAmong other projects, the DDS provided microloans to untouchable women so women could have cell phone to rent to others, thereby generating a livelihood for themselves.In so doing, this also worked to change the culture since suddenly the phones were “touchable” and it became acceptable to negotiate with the untouchable women.The breakdown of the caste system is making more opportunities available for women.

This cell-phone project is only possible as a society transitions from no phones to many people having cell phones. The current DDS website does not discuss the cell-phone project any longer.

DDS website is found at http://www.ddsindia.com/www/default.asp

What’s Happening With Phones?

From CIA Factbook for 2006:Landlines worldwide: 1.21 billionCell phones worldwide: 1.75 billionInternet users 1.02 billion

United StatesPopulation 298.4 million Pop. growth rate 0.91 %






Literacy rate 99 % Land phones: 268 million- Male 99 % Cell phones: 194.5million- Female 99 % Internet users: 203.4 million


US 2006MALE FEMALE

Population in millionsSource: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006

5 year age increments

MALE FEMALE

Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006

US 2006

US 1960

MALE FEMALE

Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006

US 2006

US 1960

Note 1930-1940 depression

Note more older femalesAlso note column

appearance in last almost 50 years.

GuatemalaPopulation 12.3 million Pop. growth rate 2.27 %






Literacy rate 70.6 % Land phones: 1.13 million- Male 78 % Cell phones: 3.17 million- Female 63.3 % Internet users: 0.76 million


GuatemalaBabies per woman:

1990: 5.6

1999: 4.8

2006 est. 3.8Was highest fertility rate in the Americas.

Now Haiti is highest with 4.94.

CIA Factbook, est for 2006

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html Also US Census: http://www.census.gov

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html











Guatemala

1981 1991

2006 Note change in lowest 3-4 bars in these years.Guatemala not expanding in rate as it was 15 years ago

Still, a high proportion of the population are children and there are many of them!

Haiti (now highest fertility in Americas)

Population 8.31 million Pop. growth rate 2.3 %






Literacy rate 52.9 %Land phones: 0.14 million- Male 54.8 % Cell phones: 0.40 million- Female 51.2 % Internet users: 0.50 million


Haiti1986

2006 NOTE: More females in older categories.

IranBackground: 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. ~1 million die.

On the society: • Nafisi, A. (2003). Reading Lolita in Tehran. New York,

Random House.

On the fertility decline:

• Aghajanian, A. and A. H. Mehryar (1999). "Fertility Transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1976-1996." Asia-Pacific Population Journal 14(1): http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/population/journal/1999/v14n1tc.htm.

IranPopulation 68.7 million Pop. growth rate 1.1 %



Birth rate 17 / 1000 Death rate 5.55 / 1000

Median age 24.8 yrs HIV rate: < 0.1 %


Literacy rate 70.26 % Land phones: 14.6 million- Male 79.4 % Cell phones: 4.3 million- Female 73 % Internet users: 7.5 million


Iran, 1986

Iran, 2006

*

*

Note “boat” shape in 2006, versus acceleration

shape of 1986

Looks as if ~600,000 babies born ~1980-1985

did not survive to adulthood.

Would be good to compare 1991, 1996, 2001

as well to see if pattern emerges

Can it be cell-phones? Well, really communication and possible opportunities

There was no way Ehrlich or Hardin could have predicted this.

Nor the UN, nor US Census bureau, nor CIA.Anecdotal evidence suggests cell phones may play

role! Guatemala radically deregulated phones a few years

ago.Iranian mother of two of my students mentioned cell

phones and satellite TV as reason for decreased birth rate in Iran

Andra Pradesh, India

Deccan Development Society: work with Dalit (untouchable) women to help them improve their livelihoods in Andra Pradesh.

This area is undergoing rapid social change co-incident with a dramatic decrease in fertility of illiterate women in recent years.

For article on DDS, see Rao, V. R. (2002). Women farmers of India's Deccan Plateau: ecofeminists challenge world elites. Environmental ethics: what really matters, what really works. D. Schmidtz and E. Willott. New York, Oxford University Press: 255-262.

India 1996

India 2006

Note flattening of edges; maybe moving to

column shape?

Almost perfect pyramid shape; so NOT

exponential growth.

ChinaPopulation 1314 millionPop. growth rate 0.59 %






Literacy rate 90.9 %Land phones: 312 million- Male 95.1 % Cell phones: 335 million- Female 86.5 % Internet users: 111 million


China 1991

China 2006

Note:“Boat” shape of last 20 years.

2006 Male:Female Sex Ratios: 0-4 yr old: 1.158

5-9 yr old: 1.155

Some factories in China are now reporting difficulty getting young workers. Workers are demanding raises, reduced work hours…

See one example of a response to Googling: “manpower shortage China”http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060501/ts_csm/ohelpwanted

China 2006

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060501/ts_csm/ohelpwanted

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060501/ts_csm/ohelpwanted

PakistanPopulation 12.3 million Pop. growth rate 2.27 %






Literacy rate 70.6 %Land phones: 1.13 million- Male 78 % Cell phones: 3.17 million- Female 63.3 % Internet users: 0.76 million


Pakistan2006

Pakistan1986

IndonesiaPopulation 245.5 million Pop. growth rate 1.41 %




Median age 26.8 yrs HIV rate: <0.1 %


Literacy rate 87.9 % Land phones: 9.99 million- Male 92.5 % Cell phones: 30 million- Female 83.4 % Internet users: 18 million


Indonesia1991

Indonesia2006

South AfricaPopulation 44.2 million Pop. growth rate -0.4 %



Birth rate 18.2 / 1000 Death rate 22 / 1000

Median age 24.1 yrs HIV rate (adult): 21.5 %


Literacy rate 86.4 % Land phones: 4.84 million- Male 87 % Cell phones: 19.5 million- Female 85.7 % Internet users: 3.5 million


South Africa

1986

South Africa

2006

Note step-like character to 1986, and

subsequent boat-like shape of 2006.

HIV/AIDS is prevalent in South Africa leading to increased deaths

of infants and young children. Also, condoms are effective

contraception and condom use is up due to HIV/AIDS.

Only a few countries are not showing a reduction in fertility rate (if higher than replacement).

The majority of those countries are involved, or were recently involved, in war.

Countries with high fertility rates are mainly in Africa and the Middle East, plus Afghanistan.Most of Europe, the far east, and southeast Asia are below replacement fertility.

WorldPopulation 6525 millionPop. growth rate 1.14 %




Median age 27 yrsHIV rate: N/A


Literacy rate 82 % Land phones: 1.21 billion- Male 87 % Cell phones: 1.75 billion- Female 77 % Internet users: 1.12 billion


Worldwide Fertility Rate/Woman1996 2.87

1997 2.84

1998 2.80

1999 2.76

2000 2.73

2001 2.70

2002 2.67

2003 2.65

2004 2.63

2005 2.61

2006 2.59

Replacement is ~2.3

Population increase still occurs if

1. Increase in longevity2. Lots of youngsters still growing up!

Changes in Population Pyramid - World(Numbers indicate % of total population)

http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp

1955 1996 20050-9 25.9 21.2 18.7

10-19 18.8 19.1 18.7

20-29 16.2 17.3 16.9

30-39 12.6 14.4 15.1

40-49 10.6 11.0 10.8

50-59 7.8 7.4 9.2

60-69 5.1 5.5 5.6

70-79 2.5 3.0 3.5

80+ 0.6 1.1 1.4

Age

Cat

egor

ies

The Changing World Profile - Age Distribution (%)Data source: US Census; http://www.census.gov

1955

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

0-9

10-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70-79

80+

1996

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

0-9

10-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70-79

80+

2006

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

0-9

10-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70-79

80+

0 250 500 750 1000 1250

0-9

10-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70-79

80-89

Population (in millions)

Age Category

200619961955

Age Distribution - Absolute numbers - World 1955, 1996, 2006

Note: Curve is 1) expanding in 1955; 2) more step-like in 1996; and3) we start to see column shape in 2006.Data: US Census

Population increase still occurs if

1. Increase in longevity2. Lots of youngsters still growing up!

HIV/AIDS is causing decreases in population in most-effected countries.

Prevention via condoms is effective birth control!

Countries with high fertility/woman rates:

SOURCE: US Census Bureau, International Data Base; accessed June 22, 2006. http://www.census.gov/

(All countries ≥ 6 babies/women are listed above.)

Niger 7.46

Mali 7.42

Somalia 6.76

Uganda 6.71

Afghanistan 6.69

Yemen 6.58

Burundi 6.55

Burkina Faso 6.47

Congo (Kinshasa) 6.45

Angola 6.35

Chad 6.25

Sierra Leone 6.08

Congo (Brazzaville)

6.07

Liberia 6.02

http://www.census.gov/

Niger - 2006Fertility rate of 7.46 births / women

Source: US Census bureau

NigerPopulation 12.5 million Pop. growth rate 2.92 %






Literacy rate 17.6 %Land phones: 0.024 million- Male 25 % Cell phones: 0.148 million- Female 9.7 % Internet users: 0.024 million


Ten Most Populous CountriesPopulation TFR

China 1,313,973,713 1.73India 1,095,351,995 2.73United States 298,444,215 2.09Indonesia 245,452,739 2.40Brazil 188,078,227 1.91Pakistan 165,803,560 4.00Bangladesh 147,365,352 3.11Russia 142,893,540 1.28Nigeria 131,859,731 5.49Japan 127,463,611 1.40

Nigeria - 2006Fertility rate of 5.49 births / women

Source: US Census bureau

NigeriaPopulation 131.9 million Pop. growth rate 2.38 %






Literacy rate 68 % Land phones: 1.03 million- Male 75.7 % Cell phones: 9.15 million- Female 60.6 % Internet users: 1.77 million


Percentage of People in Urban Environment (Worldwide)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

From UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/

MEDIAN AGE (UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/)Year World More Less Least1950 23.9 29.0 21.4 19.61955 23.5 29.4 20.8 19.11960 23.2 29.8 20.3 18.61965 22.5 30.0 19.5 18.21970 22.2 30.5 19.1 17.81975 22.4 31.0 19.4 17.71980 23.1 32.0 20.2 17.61985 23.8 33.2 21.0 17.61990 24.6 34.6 21.8 17.71995 25.7 36.0 23.0 17.92000 26.8 37.3 24.3 18.32005 28.1 38.6 25.6 18.9

data acquired June 24, 2006

INFANT MORTALITY (UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/)Year World More Less Least

1950-1955 156.9 59.1 179.8 194.11955-1960 140.8 42.9 162.8 180.41960-1965 119.1 32.7 136.3 168.31965-1970 103.6 26.3 116.6 156.41970-1975 93.2 21.4 104.7 146.81975-1980 87.4 18.3 98.0 137.91980-1985 77.8 14.7 86.8 126.31985-1990 70.4 12.7 77.9 117.81990-1995 65.7 10.1 72.3 110.61995-2000 61.5 8.3 67.4 104.12000-2005 57.0 7.7 62.4 97.4data acquired June 24, 2006

POPULATION GROWTH RATE (%) (UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/)Year World More Less Least


TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (children/woman) (UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/)Year World More Less Least


Year World More Less Least1950-1955 46.6 66.1 41.1 36.11955-1960 49.7 68.3 44.5 38.31960-1965 52.5 69.7 47.8 40.31965-1970 56.2 70.6 52.4 42.41970-1975 58.1 71.4 54.8 44.21975-1980 59.9 72.3 56.9 45.91980-1985 61.4 73.0 58.6 48.01985-1990 62.9 74.1 60.4 49.31990-1995 63.7 74.0 61.5 49.41995-2000 64.6 74.8 62.5 50.12000-2005 65.4 75.6 63.4 51.0

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (years) (UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/)

From UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/

human population trends 2006 update elizabeth willott the university of arizona © 2006...

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