hurricane florence economic impact - first data · overall impact north carolina spending was down...
TRANSCRIPT
Image: Nasa
Hurricane Florence
Economic Impact
First Data Information
and Analytics Solutions
©2018 First Data Corporation. All rights reserved. The First Data® name,
logo and related trademarks and service marks are owned by First Data
Corporation and are registered or used in the U.S. and many foreign
countries. All trademarks, service marks, and trade names referenced in
this material are the property of their respective owners.
2
Executive Summary
Hurricane Florence Spending Highlights
(YoY Growth)
Top 3 Destinations For Coastal North Carolinians:
Charlotte Raleigh Greenville
Top 3 Destinations For Coastal South Carolinians:
Orlando Columbia Atlanta
Before Storm (Sept. 4–10) During Storm (Sept. 11–17) After Storm (Sept. 18–24)
North Carolina South Carolina North Carolina South Carolina North Carolina South Carolina
State Total +16.3% +19.9% -7.7% -11.2% +7.7% +9.5%
Highest Growth Gas +27.4% Leisure +30% Grocery 13.2% Retail +13.2% Grocery +22.8% Retail +33.1%
Lowest Growth Hotel -24.6% Hotel -11.4% Leisure -32.6% Leisure -38.0% Gas -6.4% Leisure -8.2%
North Carolina
YoY Change, by Week Overall Impact
North Carolina
Spending was down -7.7%
statewide during the week
Hurricane Florence hit.
The coastal counties of
North Carolina experienced
the steepest drop in spending,
down almost -60% during the
week of Sept. 11 – Sept. 17.
A record-setting evacuation
and significant storm damage
kept spending in coastal areas
depressed in the following week.
3
Spending
(All Categories) “Normal
Conditions”
Week
Before Storm
Week
of Storm
Week
After Storm
Zone 1 (Coastal) -0.8% 27.4% -58.6% -14.3%
Zone 2 -1.2% 31.1% -17.3% 10.9%
Zone 3 -1.5% 19.4% -16.4% 8.7%
Zone 4 3.1% 19.8% -7.0% 10.6%
All Other Counties (AOC) 0.2% 10.6% 5.2% 10.6%
North Carolina 0.6% 16.3% -7.7% 7.7%
Zones are defined at county level, and grouped by their proximity to the coast line. Zone 1 contains
only coastal counties. Zone 2 is comprised of counties which border Zone 1 counties. Zone 3 and
Zone 4 are further away from the coast, while All Other Counties are geographically the furthest west
in the state. Growth rates reflect aggregate spending across all tracked categories.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
AOC
Zone 4
Spending
(All Categories) “Normal
Conditions”
Week
Before Storm
Week
of Storm
Week
After Storm
Zone 1 (Coastal) 2.2% 39.9% -49.6% 3.6%
Zone 2 1.9% 24.9% -18.0% 17.2%
Zone 3 0.7% 25.4% -2.1% 15.2%
Zone 4 -1.7% 13.9% -3.2% 11.9%
All Other Counties (AOC) -0.3% 8.2% 12.6% 9.9%
South Carolina 0.4% 19.9% -11.2% 9.5%
South Carolina
YoY Change, by Week Overall Impact
South Carolina
Spending was down -11.2%
statewide during the week
Hurricane Florence hit.
Unlike North Carolina, the coastal
counties of South Carolina did not
receive a direct hit.
Although coastal spending declined
nearly 50% during the week of Sept.
11 – Sept. 17, recovery was much
swifter, and spending growth
returned to positive territory the
following week.
4
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
AOC
Zone 4
Zones are defined at county level and grouped by their proximity to the coast line. Zone 1 contains
only coastal counties. Zone 2 is comprised of counties which border Zone 1 counties. Zone 3 and
Zone 4 are further away from the coast, while All Other Counties are geographically the furthest west
in the state. Growth rates reflect aggregate spending across all tracked categories.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
5
Week before storm
Week of storm
Week after storm
* Charlotte, North Myrtle Beach, and Virginia Beach/Newport News MSAs cross state lines.
** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not
fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Performance by MSA
North Carolina
Driven by an influx of evacuees
from coastal areas, inland metro
areas fared better during the storm.
However, some inland metro
areas in proximity to rivers
also experienced record levels
of flooding.
+40% -70%
Spending Growth YoY
6
Week before storm
Week of storm
Week after storm
Performance by MSA
South Carolina
Driven by an influx of evacuees
from coastal areas, inland metro
areas fared better during the storm.
However, some inland metro
areas in proximity to rivers
also experienced record levels
of flooding.
+60% -70%
Spending Growth YoY
* Charlotte, North Myrtle Beach, and Virginia Beach/Newport News MSAs cross state lines.
** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not
fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Performance by MSA
7
Week
Before Storm
Week
of Storm
Week
After Storm
Charlotte * 9.4% -2.7% 8.4%
Raleigh 21.5% -7.9% 10.3%
Unincorporated Areas ** 18.2% -4.3% 8.9%
Greensboro-High Point 17.0% 5.6% 12.1%
Winston-Salem 13.6% 7.4% 9.6%
Asheville 3.7% 12.3% 10.5%
Durham-Chapel Hill 20.9% -5.6% 14.3%
Fayetteville 19.8% -23.8% 14.8%
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton 15.6% 21.6% 16.1%
Wilmington 23.7% -65.5% -31.3%
Jacksonville 28.1% -69.0% -13.8%
Burlington 1.4% -9.6% -2.8%
Greenville 28.7% -18.6% 15.9%
North Myrtle Beach (NC) * 34.8% -60.7% -10.4%
Rocky Mount 20.8% -4.1% 9.3%
Goldsboro 23.3% -26.1% 11.0%
New Bern 29.6% -47.5% 4.6%
Virginia Beach-Newport News * 21.5% -47.1% -4.0%
North Carolina 16.3% -7.7% 7.7%
* Charlotte, North Myrtle Beach, and Virginia Beach/Newport News MSAs cross state lines.
** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
*** Best recovery weighted by absolute dollar spend across MSAs within the state.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
North Carolina
Week of the storm
Steepest drop in spending
Jacksonville - 69%
Wilmington - 65%
Strongest spending growth
Hickory +22%
Asheville +12%
Week after the storm
Best recovery ***
Fayetteville +15%
Greenville +16%
Spending (All Categories)
YoY Change, by Week
Performance by MSA
8
Week
Before Storm
Week
of Storm
Week
After Storm
Columbia, SC 14.2% -5.2% 11.8%
Greenville, SC 8.3% 13.9% 11.1%
Charleston-North Charleston 35.6% -41.8% 12.3%
Unincorporated Areas ** 14.4% -0.2% 12.3%
Myrtle Beach-Conway 32.7% -65.4% -7.9%
Charlotte * 8.2% 9.2% 5.6%
Spartanburg 6.5% 12.4% 10.4%
Hilton Head / Beaufort 57.8% -17.4% 9.4%
Florence 39.5% -2.7% 21.4%
Augusta-Richmond County 9.5% 13.5% 12.1%
Sumter 17.0% 7.3% 15.7%
South Carolina 19.9% -11.2% 9.5%
* Charlotte, North Myrtle Beach, and Virginia Beach/Newport News MSAs cross state lines.
** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not fall
within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
*** Best recovery weighted by absolute dollar spend across MSAs within the state.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
South Carolina
Week of the storm
Steepest drop in spending
Myrtle Beach - 65%
Charleston - 42%
Strongest spending growth
Greenville +14%
Augusta +13%
Week after the storm
Best recovery ***
Charleston +12%
Florence +21%
Spending (All Categories)
YoY Change, by Week
Statewide Trends
9
Grocery was the only tracked
industry in North Carolina that
remained in positive territory
statewide during and after the storm.
In South Carolina, only Retail was
able to sustain growth during and
after the storm. The surge of
spending activity in un-impacted
areas of each state served as a
counter-balance in these industries.
Both states were able to rebound in
the week after the storm, although
some individual industries continued
to struggle, especially those relying
on tourism.
Selected Categories
YoY Change, by Week
Week
Before Storm
Week
of Storm
Week
After Storm
Grocery 25.5% 13.2% 22.8%
Retail 5.6% -17.5% 4.2%
Gasoline 27.4% -4.5% -6.4%
Services 11.6% -22.2% 4.6%
Restaurants 7.2% -21.2% 3.6%
Hotel -24.6% -14.3% 12.1%
Leisure 12.4% -32.6% -0.5%
Travel 21.6% -2.2% 10.4%
State total 16.3% -7.7% 7.7%
Week
Before Storm
Week
of Storm
Week
After Storm
15.2% -21.6% 6.7%
23.5% 13.2% 33.1%
21.0% -4.3% -0.9%
23.2% -23.3% 2.7%
22.6% -20.4% 5.5%
-11.4% -30.8% -7.7%
30.0% -38.0% -8.2%
22.0% 9.9% 20.4%
19.9% -11.2% 9.5%
North Carolina South Carolina
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
10
Spend Distribution
North Carolina
In both states, Gasoline Station
spending was a smaller portion
of total spend in the week after
the storm, possibly due to short
supplies afterward.
Grocery consistently had the
largest share of wallet in
North Carolina.
20% 20% 14%
41% 42%
42%
1% 2%
2%
9% 9% 10%
19% 18% 20%
10% 8% 10%
Week Before Storm Week of Storm Week After Storm
Services
Retail
Restaurants
Travel & Leisure
Hotel
Grocery
Gasoline
North Carolina
Zones 1, 2, 3
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
AOC
Zone 4
11
Spend Distribution
South Carolina
In both states, Gasoline Station
spending was a smaller portion of
total spend in the week after the
storm, possibly due to short
supplies afterward.
Retail share of wallet expanded in
South Carolina post storm, as did
spending on Professional Services.
South Carolina
Zones 1, 2, 3
21% 21% 16%
24% 27%
24%
2% 3%
2%
13% 13%
15%
26% 24% 28%
11% 11% 13%
Week Before Storm Week of Storm Week After Storm
Services
Retail
Restaurants
Travel & Leisure
Hotel
Grocery
Gasoline
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
AOC
Zone 4
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Image: Nasa
Major Sector Spending Indexes by Day
Daily Spending Indexes
All Tracked Industries Combined
13 Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Wilmington, New Bern, North
Myrtle Beach and Fayetteville
all experienced similar declines
in spending during the storm.
New Bern and Fayetteville
recovered more quickly
compared to Wilmington
and North Myrtle Beach.
Major MSAs in North Carolina
0
50
100
150
200
250
North Carolina Wilmington, NC
0
50
100
150
200
250New Bern, NC
0
50
100
150
200
250North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
0
50
100
150
200
250Fayetteville, NC
Before Storm During Storm After Storm Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Before Storm During Storm After Storm Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Daily Spending Indexes
All Tracked Industries Combined
14 Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Charleston and Myrtle Beach /
Conway both experienced steep
drops in spending.
However the decline in spending in
Myrtle Beach / Conway was deeper
and more sustained than in
Charleston and other areas.
Major MSAs in South Carolina
0
50
100
150South Carolina Charleston, SC
0
50
100
150Myrtle Beach-Conway, SC
0
50
100
150
Hilton Head / Beaufort, SC
0
50
100
150
Columbia, SC
Before Storm During Storm After Storm Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Before Storm During Storm After Storm Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Daily Spending Indexes
15 Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Major Sector Performance
137
5
186
0
50
100
150
200
Retail Non Retail
137
30
0
50
100
150
200
North Carolina
South Carolina
Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Spending peaked higher
and bottomed out lower in
North Carolina compared to
South Carolina.
Retail spending generally trended
weaker than Non Retail spending
across both states.
Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Daily Spending Indexes
16
Major Sector Performance
228
132
11
0
50
100
150
200
250Grocery Restaurants
231
28
171
0
50
100
150
200
250
In both North Carolina and
South Carolina, residents were
more concerned with stocking
their pantries than going out to
eat, as evidenced by the spike
in grocery spending.
Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
North Carolina
South Carolina
Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Daily Spending Indexes
17
Major Sector Performance
49
0
50
100
150
200
250Gasoline Hotel
60
0
50
100
150
200
250
Gasoline spending spiked at the
same time in both states before
the storm.
In contrast North Carolina
residents spent more on hotels
after the storm made landfall.
Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
North Carolina
South Carolina
Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Before Storm During Storm After Storm
Image: Nasa
Evacuee Cardholder Spending
Evacuees from Wilmington, NC
19
% Change in Spend From Base Week
Top Destinations
Week
Before
Storm
Week
Of
Storm
Week
After
Storm
1 Charlotte, NC 31% 410% 189%
2 Raleigh, NC 32% 327% 254%
3 Unincorporated Areas, NC 21% 161% 98%
4 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 52% 282% 52%
5 Atlanta, GA -21% 790% 290%
6 Greensboro-High Point, NC 17% 585% 319%
7 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 46% 380% 302%
8 Asheville, NC 6% 457% 176%
9 Washington, DC 24% 371% 234%
10 Winston-Salem, NC 32% 753% 444%
sheltering in place
Wilmington, NC 33% -70% -26%
Week of Storm
Many Wilmington evacuees
stayed in state, but moved
further inland.
Of the top destinations, Atlanta
saw the highest increase in
spend from Wilmington evacuees
the week of the storm.
Base week volume is derived from the average spend in those cities by cardholders from the evacuated MSA during weeks of
“normal conditions” Top 10 Destinations based on the total aggregated spend in the following categories: Hotel, Grocery,
Restaurants, Travel, Leisure, General Merchandise Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other
municipalities which do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Evacuees from New Bern, NC
20
% Change in Spend From Base Week
Top Destinations
Week
Before
Storm
Week
Of
Storm
Week
After
Storm
1 Raleigh, NC 10% 203% 38%
2 Greenville, NC 21% 43% 78%
3 Washington, DC -3% 332% 90%
4 Atlanta, GA -17% 370% 107%
5 Virginia Beach, VA -12% 50% 19%
6 Winston-Salem, NC 82% 724% 102%
7 Asheville, NC 66% 350% 51%
8 Richmond, VA -25% 521% 151%
9 Unincorporated Areas, VA 61% 479% 111%
10 Baltimore, MD -13% 543% 243%
sheltering in place
New Bern, NC 40% -48% 7%
Many New Bern evacuees headed
north to Virginia and Maryland
during the storm.
Of the top destinations, Baltimore
saw the second highest increase
in spend from New Bern evacuees
the week of the storm. But the
city also had the highest level of
spend the week after the storm,
suggesting that evacuees
stayed longer.
Base week volume is derived from the average spend in those cities by cardholders from the evacuated MSA during weeks of
“normal conditions” Top 10 Destinations based on the total aggregated spend in the following categories: Hotel, Grocery,
Restaurants, Travel, Leisure, General Merchandise Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other
municipalities which do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Week of Storm
Evacuees from Myrtle Beach / Conway, SC
21
% Change in Spend From Base Week
Top Destinations
Week
Before
Storm
Week
Of
Storm
Week
After
Storm
1 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 29% 347% 26%
2 Charlotte, NC 22% 237% 11%
3 Columbia, SC 49% 423% 34%
4 Unincorporated Areas, NC 31% 107% 9%
5 Savannah, GA 106% 1,486% 44%
6 Greenville, SC 8% 519% 3%
7 Jacksonville, FL 44% 1,505% 90%
8 Washington, DC 8% 92% 17%
9 Florence, SC 22% 174% -9%
10 Augusta/Richmond, GA-SC 47% 1,017% 30%
sheltering in place
Myrtle Beach-
Conway, SC 18% -61% 2%
The Orlando-Kissimmee area was
the top destination, likely due to its
abundance of hotels and family-
oriented accommodations.
The most popular destinations
for Myrtle Beach / Conway
residents escaping the storm
were both inside and outside
of South Carolina.
Base week volume is derived from the average spend in those cities by cardholders from the evacuated MSA during weeks of
“normal conditions” Top 10 Destinations based on the total aggregated spend in the following categories: Hotel, Grocery,
Restaurants, Travel, Leisure, General Merchandise Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other
municipalities which do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Week of Storm
Evacuees from Charleston, SC
22
% Change in Spend From Base Week
Top Destinations
Week
Before
Storm
Week
Of
Storm
Week
After
Storm
1 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 33% 380% 15%
2 Atlanta, GA -15% 354% 3%
3 Jacksonville, FL -6% 838% -10%
4 Columbia, SC 26% 116% -8%
5 Greenville, SC -13% 208% 4%
6 Unincorporated Areas, SC 22% 76% -8%
7 Savannah, GA 20% 306% -8%
8 Charlotte, NC 24% 38% 0%
9 Augusta/Richmond, GA-SC -1% 411% -2%
10 Unincorporated Areas, GA -25% 494% 76%
sheltering in place
Charleston, SC 14% -40% 2%
Similar to Myrtle Beach / Conway,
the Orlando-Kissimmee area was
the top destination.
Similar to the Myrtle Beach /
Conway evacuee trends, the most
popular destinations were both
inside South Carolina and in
bordering states.
Base week volume is derived from the average spend in those cities by cardholders from the evacuated MSA during weeks of
“normal conditions” Top 10 Destinations based on the total aggregated spend in the following categories: Hotel, Grocery,
Restaurants, Travel, Leisure, General Merchandise Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other
municipalities which do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.
Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.
Week of Storm
Methodology
23
› All data is proprietary transaction data from First Data’s systems.
› Analysis includes all card-based forms of payment and is based on actual, same-
store spending activity.
› Analysis covers transaction activity during August 21 – September 24, 2018, with
a comparison period covering August 22 – September 25, 2017.
› All growth rates reflect a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted.
› Data is grouped into “Retail” and “Non-Retail”.
› All sales volume is based on transactions occurring at Brick & Mortar locations
only. No ecommerce activity is included.
› “Retail” includes Electronic & Appliances, Building Materials, Clothing &
Accessories, Furniture/Home Furnishings, General Merchandise, Sporting Goods,
Health and Personal Care Stores, Specialty Retail.
› “Non-Retail” includes Food & Beverage Stores, Restaurants, Hotel, Leisure,
Travel, Aftermarket Vehicle Parts, Gasoline Stations, and Services.