hurricane guide 2015 daily commercial

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SURVIVAL GUIDE

2 2015 HURRICANE GUIDE

D016760

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Although forecasters predict this year’s hurricane season will have fewer named storms than average, it does not mean residents should remain complacent, local emergency management officials said.

“Even though the initial fore-cast appears to be lower than the average, it only takes one,” said Lake County Emergency Management Division Manager Thomas Carpenter. “It is ab-solutely important to prepare. The thought is there is a level of complacency because nothing has happened in a while.”

Forecasters are expecting eight storms — four of them hurricanes, according to Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorolo-gist for AccuWeather.

Of the four hurricanes, fore-casters anticipate one major storm, Kottlowski confirmed.

“We do think there will be one to two more impacts this year to land,” he said.

The number of storms is considered low compared to the average, he added.

“Roughly, we see 12 storms a year, and, of those 12, we see about six or seven hurricanes, and two or three of those would be major hurricanes,” he said.

Kottlowski said there is a moderate to strong El Niño weather pattern developing across the globe, which causes the westerly winds to dip down into the tropics, making it harder for storms to develop.

Regardless, he said, a storm could still occur.

“You will still have favorable conditions for development at times of the year,” he added. “Those more favorable times will be less than normal. The threat is always there. In El Niño years, we get more storms that hit the U.S. than in non El Niño years.”

Kottlowski added that in a normal year, there is a 36 per-cent chance of Central Florida being affected by a tropical storm and an 11 percent

chance of it being impacted by a hurricane.

Carpenter said the last time Lake County was hit by a hurri-cane was 1960, with Hurricane Donna.

“It caused massive debris and power outages,” he said.

Although Hurricanes Charley, Francis and Jeanne affected Lake County in 2004, there was no empirical evidence they were classified as hurricanes when they hit the county because there were no sustained winds of 74 mph, Carpenter said.

In preparation for hurricane season, Carpenter said it is

important to have a gallon of water per person per day for five days and non-perishable food items for the same num-ber of days. It is also essential to

have a non-electric can opener.“Make a plan,” he said.

“Develop a disaster kit, and be ready.”

Carpenter added it is also es-

sential to have a NOAA weather radio and any type of medica-tions and personal needs on hand.

These types of preparations are not just for hurricane sea-son, Carpenter said.

“The Blue Rhino incident and Summer Bay Resort sinkhole occurred late at night, and people had to get up and leave quickly,” he said. “In the middle of the night, if you hear a large explosion, are you prepared to grab what you have and leave? That is the type of prepared-ness I hope everybody could achieve.”

Sunday, May 31, 2015 2015 HURRICANE GUIDE 3

Officials: Residents should prepare for hurricane season

HURRICANE SEASON 2015 › Eight storms are anticipated, and four of them are expected to be

hurricanes. › One major hurricane is expected. › Two storms are expected to impact land. › Lake County has a 36 percent chance of being hit by a tropical storm in

any given year. › Tropical storm and hurricane names will be Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny,

Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.

HALIFAX MEDIA GROUP FILE

Linda Ellis sets up hurricane preparedness items at the Home Depot on Southwest College Road in Ocala, on Friday, May 30, 2014.

4 2015 HURRICANE GUIDE Sunday, May 31, 2015

Garage doors

Braces

Inside the

garage door

Protecting the envelope

Windows

Plastic interlayerGlass

Glass

Impact-resistant windows offer passive protection against wind-borne debris during a hurricane. The glazing may shatter from an impact, but the pane will stay in the frame, keeping destructive winds out of the house.

Impact- resistant

glass

SOURCES: PGT, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration JENNIFER F. A. BORRESEN/NYTRNG

Plywood paneling Shutters

When unbraced, these large doors often fail during hurricanes, letting wind into the garage that can lift off the roof. To strengthen double-width garage doors, run 2x4 braces across the middle of each panel. The braces should be anchored to the wall with bolts. Retro�t kits are available for some doors.

Installing plywood over windows and doors is a cost-effective way to protect your home. Measure and drill the panels well in advance for easy installation when a hurricane threatens.

Wood-frame houses� For windows 3x4 feet or smaller, use 1/4-inch lag bolts that penetrate the wall and frame surrounding the window at least 1 3/4 inches.� For larger windows, use 3/8-inch lag bolts that penetrate the wall and frame surrounding the window at least 2 1/2 inches.

Masonry houses� Windows 4x4 or smaller, 1/4-inch expansion anchors. The expansion bolt should penetrate the wall at least 1 1/2 inches. � For larger windows, use 3/8-inch expansion bolts that pentrate the wall at least 1 1/2 inches.

Types of shutters� Roll-down � Storm panels� Plywood

Plywood should overlap the window or door opening by 4 inches on each side.

Shutters protect against wind and �ying debris. They come in panels that are installed manually on tracks, or permanent units that roll up into cases atop the opening.

Roll-down shutters are popular because of the ease and speed with which they can be used.

Once a window or door has been breached, hurricane-force winds can enter the structure and exert tremendous pressure on a house’s walls and roof, blowing them out. Shielding these weak spots in the house’s “envelope” can save your home from catastrophe.

Roll-down shutter

Garage doors

Braces

Inside the

garage door

Protecting the envelope

Windows

Plastic interlayerGlass

Glass

Impact-resistant windows offer passive protection against wind-borne debris during a hurricane. The glazing may shatter from an impact, but the pane will stay in the frame, keeping destructive winds out of the house.

Impact- resistant

glass

SOURCES: PGT, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration JENNIFER F. A. BORRESEN/NYTRNG

Plywood paneling Shutters

When unbraced, these large doors often fail during hurricanes, letting wind into the garage that can lift off the roof. To strengthen double-width garage doors, run 2x4 braces across the middle of each panel. The braces should be anchored to the wall with bolts. Retro�t kits are available for some doors.

Installing plywood over windows and doors is a cost-effective way to protect your home. Measure and drill the panels well in advance for easy installation when a hurricane threatens.

Wood-frame houses� For windows 3x4 feet or smaller, use 1/4-inch lag bolts that penetrate the wall and frame surrounding the window at least 1 3/4 inches.� For larger windows, use 3/8-inch lag bolts that penetrate the wall and frame surrounding the window at least 2 1/2 inches.

Masonry houses� Windows 4x4 or smaller, 1/4-inch expansion anchors. The expansion bolt should penetrate the wall at least 1 1/2 inches. � For larger windows, use 3/8-inch expansion bolts that pentrate the wall at least 1 1/2 inches.

Types of shutters� Roll-down � Storm panels� Plywood

Plywood should overlap the window or door opening by 4 inches on each side.

Shutters protect against wind and �ying debris. They come in panels that are installed manually on tracks, or permanent units that roll up into cases atop the opening.

Roll-down shutters are popular because of the ease and speed with which they can be used.

Once a window or door has been breached, hurricane-force winds can enter the structure and exert tremendous pressure on a house’s walls and roof, blowing them out. Shielding these weak spots in the house’s “envelope” can save your home from catastrophe.

Roll-down shutter

Halifax Media Group

A hurricane’s on the way, and depending upon where you live, you may want to evacuate your home.

Where would you go? How will you get there? Specifically, what’s your route? If you drive out to Interstate 75 with everyone else, chances are it’ll be more like a parking lot than an escape route.

So besides knowing where you’re going to go (a Plan A and a Plan B), you need to have a good way to get there.

Most of us will stay put because, although being inland doesn’t guarantee our safety, we don’t have to deal with storm surges and we are likely not to bear the brunt of the storm’s fury the way our coastal neighbors will.

Preparing for the worst emergencies is serious busi-ness, emergency management experts say, and if you don’t work out a plan now, you’ll be caught fumbling for things when it counts. Most experts suggest four “pillars of preparation” for residents to consider.

1 MAKE A PLANWith the June 1 start of

hurricane season near-ing, this is the best time to prepare.

In a true disaster, nearly everything shuts down, at least temporarily. Things on the fritz might include air-conditioning, your refrigerator, grocery stores, clean water from the tap, schools and pharmacies, among others.

And while help will come, it may take several days or weeks it to happen. Which is why having a plan and being prepared is so critical.

Here are a few things to pon-der as you prepare:

› Do you or your family mem-bers have special needs? That means anyone with a chronic health condition, or someone for whom being without air-con-ditioning or refrigerated medi-cine could push that condition downhill fairly rapidly. County

health officials need to know about these folks ahead of time, in case they need to help with transportation.

› Do you have a pet? Even those who make a plan for their family often forget about their animals. If you know you’re evacuating to a relative’s home, make sure they can accom-modate your pet, too. If your backup plan is a hotel, make sure it’s pet-friendly, and call to reserve your room right away.

Part of making a plan includes preparing your home for a storm’s impact. Pool furni-ture needs to be stored, tree branches trimmed and windows protected.

2 MAKE A KITDonnelly says your

hurricane kit needs to include at least five days’ worth of water. Suggested

drinking rations are one gallon per person, per day, and a clean bathtub filled with water for other needs, including hygiene and cooking. Your pet will need water, too.

You need a five-day food supply, made up of shelf-stable items you can actually get into and will actually eat. Again, don’t forget a supply of pet food.

Your most important records, including insurance papers, home deeds, birth certificates and the like, need to be kept in a plastic bag and in a safe place. You need medicine, eyeglasses, contacts, a toothbrush and toothpaste, first-aid supplies and any other vital hygiene items handy.

3 BE INFORMEDResidents can sign up

for all manner of updates, including emails, phone calls and texts. An old

fashioned weather radio can be an invaluable tool, as well.

4 BE INVOLVEDThis one’s not man-

datory, but if you’re interested in helping other people, emergency

officials welcome the help.

The 4 ‘pillars of preparation’ for storm season


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LAKE COUNTY HURRICANE SHELTERS

› ASTATULA ELEMENTARY, 13925 Florida Ave., Astatula › LEESBURG ELEMENTARY, 2229 South St., Leesburg — special-needs and pet friendly › LOST LAKE ELEMENTARY, 1901 Johns Lake Road, Clermont — special-needs and pet friendly › MASCOTTE ELEMENTARY, 460 Midway Ave., Mascotte › ROUND LAKE ELEMENTARY, 31333 Round Lake Road, Mount Dora › SPRING CREEK ELEMENTARY, 44440 Spring Creek Road, Paisley › TREADWAY ELEMENTARY, 10619 Treadway School Road, Leesburg › UMATILLA ELEMENTARY, 401 Lake St., Umatilla — special-needs and pet friendly › VILLAGES ELEMENTARY, 695 Rolling Acres Road, Lady Lake — pet friendly


� TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: First stage of unstable weather that may develop into a hurricane.� TROPICAL DEPRESSION: The tropical activity has a low-pressure area that could become a hurricane. Highest wind speed is 38 mph.� TROPICAL STORM: Wind speeds of 39-73 mph. Low-pressure area is well-de�ned by rotating circulation.� TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that a tropical storm poses a threat within 36 hours.� TROPICAL STORM WARNING: Tropical storm is expected within 24 hours.� HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that a hurricane is expected within 36 hours.� HURRICANE WARNING: A hurricane is expected within 24 hours. Because of the erratic nature of hurricanes, the warning could come only a few hours before.

Tropical weather terms

WebsitesHere is a list of websites that track the progress of approaching hurricanes:

The National Weather Service: nws.noaa.gov

The National Hurricane Center: nhc.noaa.gov

The Federal Emergency Management Agency: fema.gov

The Weather Channel: weather.com

Florida Forecast: �oridaforecast.com

Accuweather: accuweather.com

Hurricane myths

FACT: Surge of high water asstorm reaches land is caused bywinds pushing ocean surfaceahead of the storm.

MYTH:Low pressurein storm’s eyecauses stormsurge.

FACT: Friction decreasessustained winds but increasesgusts. Storm weakens becauseit lacks moisture and heatthat ocean provided.

MYTH:Friction overland killsthe storm.

FACT: Size and intensity areindependent. Hurricane Andrew,for example, was very intensebut relatively small.

MYTH:Big hurricanesare intensehurricanes.

FACT: All doors andwindows should be shut. Thedifference between pressureinside the house and outsidein the storm is not enoughto cause an explosion.No house is airtight.

MYTH:Windows,doors shouldbe closed onthe storm side,open on theopposite side.


Some common misconceptions about thephysics of hurricanes:








SOURCES: National Hurricane Center, The Audubon SocietyField Guide to North American Weather; research by PAT CARR

The eye of a storm

Thick cloud walls thatcan reach 7 miles to9 miles in heightsurround center

Absorb huge amountsof moisture from ocean,causing heaviest rainfall

Winds here move in counter-clockwisedirection with great speed; combined with low pressure can raise ocean surfaceby 23 ft. to 40 ft.

Eye

Eyewall

AP

Any storm of Category 3 or more is considered major.

Moderate96-110 mph winds

Extensive111-129 mph winds

Extreme130-156 mph winds

CatastrophicWinds over 157 mph

Minimal74-95 mph winds

Hurricane strengths

CATEGORY 1

CATEGORY 2

CATEGORY 3

CATEGORY 4

CATEGORY 5

Storm surge:4-5 ft.

Storm surge:6-8 ft.

Storm surge:9-12 ft.


Storm surge:18+ ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA

ATLANTICOCEAN

GULFOF

MEXICO

10˚

20˚

30˚

VENEZUELACOLOMBIA

COSTARICA

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

ELSALVADOR

GUATEMALA

BELIZE

YUCATANPENINSULA

MEXICO

CUBA

JAMAICA

HAITI DOMINICANREPUBLIC

PUERTORICO

BAHAMAS

Texas

Arkansas

Louisiana

Mississippi

Alabama Georgia

Tennessee

SouthCarolina

NorthCarolina

Florida

15˚

25˚

Wilmington

Jacksonville

Cape Canaveral

Miami

Tampa

Savannah

Charleston

CedarKey

Ocala

ExampleRead west to 63° West

Read north to 34° North

ocala.com/hurricane

0˚ 10˚0˚ 20˚˚0˚

MILES

90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚95˚ 85˚ 75˚ 65˚

Once a storm has caused greatdamage, its name is retired.

Retired names

Carol, Hazel, EdnaJanet, Connie, Diane, IoneAudreyDonnaCarlaFloraCleo, Dora, HildaBetsyBeulahCamilleCeliaAgnesCarmenEloiseAnitaDavid, FredericAllenAliciaElena, GloriaGilbertHugoBobAndrewLuis, Marilyn, Opal, RoxanneCesar, Fran, HortenseGeorges, MitchFloyd, LennyKeithAllison, Iris, MichelleIsidore, LilliFabian, Isabel, JuanCharley, Frances, Ivan, JeanneDennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, WilmaDean, Felix, NoelGustav, Ike, PalomaIgor, TomasIreneSandyIngrid

195419551957196019611963196419651967196919701972197419751977197919801983198519881989199119921995199619981999200020012002200320042005200720082010201120122013

HURR

ICANE

TRAC

KING M

APImportant localinformation,radar, updatedforecasts andthis trackingmap availableat

Map and Graphics by ROB MACK/Staff artist;SOURCE: National Weather Service

2015 Atlantic namesAnaBillClaudetteDannyErikaFredGraceHenriIdaJoaquin

KateLarryMindyNicholasOdettePeterRoseSamTeresaVictorWanda










Hurricane myths



















The eye of a storm




Eye

Eyewall

AP







Hurricane strengths

CATEGORY 1

CATEGORY 2

CATEGORY 3

CATEGORY 4

CATEGORY 5

Storm surge:4-5 ft.

Storm surge:6-8 ft.



Storm surge:18+ ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA

ATLANTICOCEAN

GULFOF

MEXICO

10˚

20˚

30˚

VENEZUELACOLOMBIA

COSTARICA

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

ELSALVADOR

GUATEMALA

BELIZE

YUCATANPENINSULA

MEXICO

CUBA

JAMAICA


PUERTORICO

BAHAMAS

Texas

Arkansas

Louisiana

Mississippi

Alabama Georgia

Tennessee

SouthCarolina

NorthCarolina

Florida

15˚

25˚

Wilmington

Jacksonville

Cape Canaveral

Miami

Tampa

Savannah

Charleston

CedarKey

Ocala



ocala.com/hurricane

0˚ 10˚0˚ 20˚˚0˚

MILES

90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚95˚ 85˚ 75˚ 65˚


Retired names


195419551957196019611963196419651967196919701972197419751977197919801983198519881989199119921995199619981999200020012002200320042005200720082010201120122013

HURR

ICANE

TRAC

KING M

AP

Important localinformation,radar, updatedforecasts andthis trackingmap availableat




ZAC ANDERSONHalifax Media Group

Florida has a good chance of extending a record-breaking hurricane-free stretch to a full decade if a forecast released recently by a leading research group comes true.

Scientists with the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colora-do State University predict that 2015 will be one of the slowest hurricane seasons on record in the last half-century.

“Overall the environment this year is just not conducive” to

hurricane development, said research scientist Phil Klotz-bach, the lead author of the Colorado State forecast.

Klotzbach expects half as many hurricanes this year as during a typical season. Overall tropical cyclone activity is ex-pected to be way down too, with just seven named storms fore-cast, compared with the 12 that form during a typical season.

Cooler water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and a moderate to strong El Niño climate pattern are the main factors expected to suppress

storm development.Tropical cyclones feed off

warm water but the Atlantic is “quite cool at present,” accord-ing to the forecast. The arrival an El Niño for the first time in five years is significant because the system — characterized by unusually warm water in the Pa-cific Ocean — brings upper level winds sweeping into the Atlantic that suppress storm growth.

Those factors could severely limit hurricane activity. If the Colorado State forecast is ac-curate, the Atlantic would see the fewest number of named

storms since 1997.A hurricane has not hit Florida

in more than nine years, since Wilma struck in October 2005. The Colorado State forecast puts the probability of a major storm — one with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher — making landfall anywhere on the East Coast of the United States at 15 percent, down from 31 percent during a typical year.

Another hurricane-free year would put Florida in the remarkable position of doubling the previous record for avoiding a landfall. Until recently, the lon-

gest stretch without a hurricane hitting the state was the five years between 1980 and 1984. The lull follows an unprecedent-ed battering the state suffered in the 2004-04 seasons.

“Florida really had a good period of luck after a lot of bad years,” Klotzbach said.

Forecasting hurricane activ-ity in April can be tricky. The season does not officially begin until June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Klotzbach said the El Niño system may be weaker than ex-pected and other factors could throw off the forecast.

Forecasters predict below-average hurricane season


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D015460

D014955










Hurricane myths



















The eye of a storm




Eye

Eyewall

AP







Hurricane strengths

CATEGORY 1

CATEGORY 2

CATEGORY 3

CATEGORY 4

CATEGORY 5

Storm surge:4-5 ft.

Storm surge:6-8 ft.



Storm surge:18+ ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA

ATLANTICOCEAN

GULFOF

MEXICO

10˚

20˚

30˚

VENEZUELACOLOMBIA

COSTARICA

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

ELSALVADOR

GUATEMALA

BELIZE

YUCATANPENINSULA

MEXICO

CUBA

JAMAICA


PUERTORICO

BAHAMAS

Texas

Arkansas

Louisiana

Mississippi

Alabama Georgia

Tennessee

SouthCarolina

NorthCarolina

Florida

15˚

25˚

Wilmington

Jacksonville

Cape Canaveral

Miami

Tampa

Savannah

Charleston

CedarKey

Ocala



ocala.com/hurricane

0˚ 10˚0˚ 20˚˚0˚

MILES

90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚95˚ 85˚ 75˚ 65˚


Retired names


195419551957196019611963196419651967196919701972197419751977197919801983198519881989199119921995199619981999200020012002200320042005200720082010201120122013

HURR

ICANE

TRAC

KING M

AP

Important localinformation,radar, updatedforecasts andthis trackingmap availableat




GARY FINEOUTAssociated Press

TALLAHASSEE — Florida’s nine-year streak of avoiding hur-ricanes is helping the state reach a historic milestone: for the first time ever, the state-created fund designed to help pay out claims after storms has enough cash and assets on hand to pay off everything it could owe.

New estimates show the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund should have $17 billion available for the Atlantic hur-ricane season that starts June 1.

“The money is there and it’s in our pocket,” said Jack Nichol-son, the chief operating officer of the fund.

The financial health of the account known as the “Cat Fund” is important to Florid-ians regardless of where they live. Because of it, the state can impose a surcharge on most insurance policies — including auto insurance policies — to

replenish it if it runs out of money. Some critics have called the surcharge a “hurricane tax.”

The main reason that the amount of money in the fund has grown is because Florida hasn’t been hit by a hurricane since Wilma lumbered across the state in 2005.

Florida created the fund after Hurricane Andrew ravaged a

densely populated area of South Florida in 1992. It offers insur-ance companies backup cover-age at prices usually lower than those in the private market. It was designed to help keep private insurers from leaving the state. Every company is required to purchase coverage to pay off claims after insurers reach a certain level of damages.

Insurance fund strong for storm season

AP FILE

This Aug. 25, 1992 photo shows rows of houses damaged by Hurricane Andrew between Homestead and Florida City.


Staff Report

The storm has passed. Your power is out. Trees and debris litter your yard. Perhaps there is a power line down in front of your house. Maybe your roof is damaged.

The aftermath of a hurricane or even a tropical storm can be scary, even depressing. Know-ing where to turn for help is key to recovering quickly and safely and getting your life back to normal. Here are a few resourc-es and tips to consider, courtesy of Lake County Emergency Management.

FOOD AND WATERIn the case of an electrical

outage, it is important to ensure food safety. The risk of food poisoning is heightened when refrigerators and ovens are inaccessible; discard any food that has been at room tempera-ture for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color or texture.

Just remember, “When in doubt, throw it out!” People can practice safe food handling and prevent food-borne illness by following simple steps:

› Frozen and refrigerated foods can be unsafe after hur-ricane. When the power is out, refrigerators will keep foods safe for only about four hours.

› Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still “refrigera-tor cold,” or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.

› Commercially prepared cans of food should not be eaten if there is a bulging or opening on the can or the screw caps, soda pop bottle tops or twist-caps.

› Communities hit by flood-ing and power outages may have compromised water sys-tems and wells. Water treatment plants may not be operating, even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public an-nouncements about the safety of the municipal water supply.

› Do not use contaminated

water to wash dishes, brush your teeth, wash and prepare food, or make ice.

› When using bottled water, know where it came from. Oth-erwise, water should be boiled or treated before use. Drink only bottled, boiled or treated water until the water supply is

tested and found safe. › Boiling water kills harm-

ful bacteria and parasites. Bringing water to a rolling boil for one minute will kill most organisms.

› Infants should be fed only pre-prepared canned baby formula. Use sterile water when

preparing formula. › Water may be treated with

chlorine or iodine tablets, or by mixing eight drops (one-eighth of a teaspoon) of unscented, ordinary household chlorine bleach per gallon of water. Mix the solution thoroughly, and let stand for about 30 minutes. However, this treatment will not kill parasitic organisms.

› Containers for water should be rinsed with a bleach solution before reusing them. Use water storage tanks and other types of containers with caution.

SANITATION AND HYGIENEAlways wash hands with soap

and water that has been boiled or disinfected. Wash hands before eating and after toilet use, participating in clean-up activities and handling articles contaminated by floodwater.

Flooding that occurs after a hurricane may mean that water contains fecal matter from sew-age systems and septic tanks. If open cuts or sores are exposed

to the floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and clean wa-ter. Apply antibiotic ointment to reduce the risk of infection.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater. They can be ex-posed to contaminated water.

GAS SAFETYSmell and listen for leaky gas

connections. If there is a sus-pected gas leak, immediately leave the house and leave all doors open.

Never strike a match. Any size flame can spark an explosion.

Before turning the gas back on, have the gas system checked by a professional.

SAFETY HAZARDSThe safety hazards people

encounter after a hurricane can be as deadly as the storm itself.

Assume all wires on the ground are electrically charged. This includes cable TV feeds.

Exposed outlets and wiring could present a fire and life safety hazard.

Tips for what to do after the storm passes

TO REPORT POWER OUTAGESLEESBURG ELECTRIC

› 2010 Griffin Road, Leesburg, 34788

› Customer service: 352-728-9800 › Report outages: 352-728-9830

MOUNT DORA ELECTRIC › 510 N. Baker St., Mount Dora, 32757 › Customer Service: 352-735-7151 › Report outages: 352-735-7141

CLAY ELECTRIC CO-OP INC. › 24950 E. County Road 316, Salt

Springs, 32134 › Phone: 352-685-2111 › Report outages: 888-434-9844 › www.clayelectric.com

PROGRESS ENERGY › www.progress-energy.com › Customer service: 800-700-8744 › Report outages: 800-228-8485

SUMTER ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE INC.

› Eustis office: 50 West Ardice Ave., Eustis, 32726. Call 352-357-5600.

› Groveland office: 850 Howey Road, Groveland, 34736. Call 352-429-2195.

› Sumterville office: 330 S. U.S. Highway 301, Sumterville, 33585. Call 352-793-3801.

› Report outages: 800-732-6141 › www.secoenergy.com


James Tobin walks his bike through flood waters in Naples Beach after Hurricane Wilma ravaged the area on Monday, Oct. 24, 2005.


D016325

HARRY BUBILHalifax Media Group

As if the earth sciences aren’t enough, now social science is helping weather forecast-ers teach the public about hurricanes.

Sociologists have been study-ing how people digest informa-tion from NOAA’s National Hur-ricane Center and working with meteorologists and emergency managers to refine their storm warnings.

The changes can be as simple as color coding a forecast map to changing the risk terminol-ogy from “low” to “elevated.”

“It is a very complex process to develop products and to com-municate complex phenomena in a simple way,” said Dr. Rick Knabb, director of the NHC. “We have spent years not just on the science and the computing and the technology, but also on the

design of the graphics and how we are going to communicate it, what to call it.

“Everything has been thor-oughly evaluated by social scientists, who have talked to our partners in emergency management and the media and others.”

At the Governor’s Hurricane Conference in Orlando, social scientists reported on a 2014 public survey, and the results are not only somewhat alarm-ing, but also tell forecasters a lot about how their hurricane advisories are received.

In Miami, which is pretty

much in the center of the Atlantic Ocean’s tropical storm dartboard, 50 percent of survey respondents do not know their evacuation zones. Half of those who live in Zone A, which is most at risk, aren’t aware of it, said Cathie Perkins, a planner in the Miami-Dade emergency

management office.The nuances of terminology

used by hurricane forecasters can be interpreted in many different ways, especially in increasingly bilingual Florida.

“We read or hear that ‘conditions are favorable for

Hurricane forecasters add social science to toolbox

APSOURCE: FEMA

Storm surges A storm surge is an abnormal increase in the ocean’s level, often 50 to 100 miles wide that sweeps across the coastline where a hurricane makes landfall.

1 2 3 4

A storm surge can be the greatest threat to life and property along the immediate coast. The biggest danger comes when water is at the high tide line.

low coastal area

A low pressure storm system allows high waves of water to form. Height can vary from 5 feet in a Category 1 storm to over 18 feet in a Category 5.

As the storm moves inland the water is pulled ashore.

The water surge erodes beaches and destroys property.

high tide line

Hurricane Hugo in 1989 generated a 20-foot surge in South Carolina.

Hurricane Camille in 1969 produced a 25-foot storm surge in Mississippi.

A look at one of the most destructive aspects of a hurricane:

APSOURCE: FEMA

Storm surges A storm surge is an abnormal increase in the ocean’s level, often 50 to 100 miles wide that sweeps across the coastline where a hurricane makes landfall.

1 2 3 4

A storm surge can be the greatest threat to life and property along the immediate coast. The biggest danger comes when water is at the high tide line.

low coastal area

A low pressure storm system allows high waves of water to form. Height can vary from 5 feet in a Category 1 storm to over 18 feet in a Category 5.

As the storm moves inland the water is pulled ashore.

The water surge erodes beaches and destroys property.

high tide line

Hurricane Hugo in 1989 generated a 20-foot surge in South Carolina.

Hurricane Camille in 1969 produced a 25-foot storm surge in Mississippi.

A look at one of the most destructive aspects of a hurricane:

SEE SCIENCE, 11


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hurricanes to develop.’ Favorable for whom?” Perkins said.

“‘Is the hurricane com-ing?’ That is the hard-est question to answer without disclaimers and modifiers,” said Robert Molleda, who coordinates weather warnings for the National Weather Service in Miami.

“There are complex scenarios with many variables and possible outcomes. We are criti-cized for that.”

“Communication is complicated,” said Betty Morrow, a consulting sociologist from Miami.

Noting that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has used social science to develop its prototype storm-surge prediction maps, she said, “So much of it is a com-munication issue.”

Hurricane Hugo, which ravaged the Caribbean before hitting Charleston, South Carolina, in 1989, taught Morrow the impor-tance of sociology in both hurricane preparation and recovery.

“I happened to be on St. Croix doing some other research, right after Hur-ricane Hugo, and it was clear that no one could talk to me about my topic until after they told me their Hugo story,” Mor-row said in an interview. “I started realizing that disasters like this just rip open the social fabric of a community.

“So if you really want to study the social networks, the organizations, how effective they are, all of that comes out when something happens that is beyond the capacity of society to cope.”

About five years ago, the National Hurricane Center began integrat-ing social science with weather science, spokes-

man Dennis Feltgen said.“Meteorologists are

the most conscientious, intense group of people I have ever dealt with,” Morrow said. “They really, really care about what they are doing.

“But it is only in recent years that NOAA has come to realize that the forecast is only as good as people’s understand-ing of it. They want to be scientifically correct, so they use the most precise words, which are ones

that are not familiar; that they wouldn’t use when they are talking to their neighbor.”

One change brought on by social science is how the storm-surge height is measured.

Instead of sea level, it now will be measured from ground level, and the surge will be said to be a certain number of feet “high,” rather than “deep.”

“Coastal flood threat” is now “storm-surge threat.”

SCIENCE FROM PAGE 10


National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb talks, Tuesday, May 7, 2013, in Fort Lauderdale.


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