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Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.

Hurricane OpheliaInformation from NHC Advisory 31A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday September 30, 2011Ophelia has rapidly intensified into a category 2 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Saturday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind Speed:

105 mph (category 2)

Position Relative to Land: 665 miles SSE of Bermuda

Est. Time & Region: n/aMin Central Pressure: 970 mb Coordinates: 22.9, 62.7 W

Trop. Storm ForceWinds (39+ mph):

175 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: NNW or 345 degrees at 9 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind

Speed: n/a

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY

eVENT™

Forecast Summary• Within 48 hours, there is an 89% chance Ophelia will remain a hurricane (74+ mph winds), an 11% chance Ophelia will weaken to a tropical

storm (39-73 mph winds) and less than a 1% chance Ophelia will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate.

• The windfield map – based on the BAMM 6:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at

category 2 hurricane strength (96-110 mph winds). The BAMM – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the

current “best performing” model for Hurricane Ophelia by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are

shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Ophelia’s forecast track.

• Tropical storm force winds are possible on Bermuda starting Saturday afternoon. The NHC estimates that within the next three days Bermuda

has a 40% chance of experiencing weak tropical storm force winds (39-58 mph), a 10% chance of experiencing strong tropical storm force winds

(58-73 mph) and a 2% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds (74+ mph). In addition, large swells created by Ophelia will cause hazardous surf conditions along Bermuda’s south shore beaches and rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches are expected on Bermuda.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Ophelia(National Hurricane Center)

Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Hurricane Ophelia(Based on BAMM as of 6:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

OttawaOttawa

New YorkNew York

PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia

MontrealMontreal

CACA

USUS

CUCUDODO

Tropic of CancerTropic of Cancer

Bermuda

10-04

10-03

10-02

10-01

09-300 1,000 2,000500 Miles

weak TSstrong TSCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5All Fcst Tracks

below 1 in1 - 3 in3 - 6 in6 - 9 in9 - 12 in12 - 24 inBAMM FcstTrackNHC FcstTrack

Ï!D TD

Ï!S TS

Ï!1 Cat1

Ï!2 Cat2

Ï!3 Cat3

Ï!4 Cat4

Ï!5 Cat5

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Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone PotentialA tropical storm watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within 48 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone FormationThe map to the right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical

cyclone formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic.

No new tropical cyclones are expected in the Atlantic within the

next 48 hours. In addition, the NHC continues to forecast

weakening for tropical storm Philippe beginning perhaps on Saturday or Sunday.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 30, 2011

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to DateTropical Storm Activity to DateOphelia is the fifteenth named storm and fourth hurricane of

the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Fourteen named storms,

seven hurricanes and five major hurricanes - Danielle, Earl,

Igor, Julia and Karl - had occurred by this date last year. The

next tropical storm of 2011 will be named Rina.

For the years 1995-2010, five had sixteen names storms and

ten had fourteen named storms. The average dates of the

sixteenth and fourteenth named storms in these years are

Oct 22 and Oct 20, respectively. Over the same period, Sep 8

and Oct 2 are the average dates of the fourth and seventh

hurricanes. And Sep 9 and Oct 9 are the average dates of the

second and fifth major hurricanes.

Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to DateTropical Storms

Total Hurricanes

Cat 3-5 Hurricanes

2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 9/30/11) 16 4 22010 year to date (1/1/10 – 9/30/10) 14 7 51995-2010 season average 14.4 7.9 3.81950-2010 season average 10.5 6.2 2.72011 CSU season forecasts(Colorado State University at Aug 3)

16 9 5

2011 NOAA season forecasts(NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)

14-19 7-10 3-5

Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonAtlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity

(categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the

right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days

with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 30 is 21.2% for

all hurricanes and 16.2% for major hurricanes.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rage

Dai

ly R

isk

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ave

rage

Rem

aini

ng R

isk

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)