hurricanes and global warming: mixing science and politics

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Hurricanes and Global Warming: Mixing Science and Politics. Greg Holland National Center for Atmospheric Research. Summary: Politics and Science Climate Impacts on N. Atlantic Hurricanes What is happening Attribution Some Projections. The Front Range Beach Resort. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

  • Hurricanes and Global Warming:Mixing Science and PoliticsSummary:Politics and ScienceClimate Impacts on N. Atlantic HurricanesWhat is happeningAttributionSome ProjectionsGreg HollandNational Center for Atmospheric Research

  • So why talk about Hurricanes in Aspen?

  • Politics and Science

  • The Calm Before the StormThe 2004 Hurricane Season had 4 hurricanes striking Florida, related by Trenberth to global warming;Emanuel: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688; published July 2005; Webster, Holland, Curry and Chang: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846; published August 2005 right between Katrina and Wilma.

  • Realization2004 and 2005 brought a sharp public realization that global warming was not some academic exercise, it could result in Katrina-like destruction, and attention shifted to other effects (1000-y drought in SE Australia, ice cap melting)

    Overtopping of MR GO Levees, New Orleans by Katrina

  • The Political Storm

  • The Scientific StormThe DownsideAd Hominem AttacksDecisions in hasteTribal ScienceThe UpsideEnormous Increase in Scientific AttentionEstablished scientists from outside the hurricane fieldNew students and young scientists choosing careers in hurricanes and climate interactionsWe focus on the upside for the remainder of the lecture:North Atlantic changes: variability and trend

  • North Atlantic Trends and Variability

  • The Trend9-year running meanBased on the archived data an accelerating upward trend is one logical choice, though a series of steps is a more logical choice (both TCs and SSTs)

  • Climate Regime Statistics1 TC for each 0.1oC increase in SST1 Hurricane for each 0.2oC increase in SSTNote that the regimes are quite distinct from each other. For example, the annual minima from the next regime barely overlap with the mean from the previous one. Note also the remarkably constant proportion of hurricanes.

    RegimePeriodTropical CyclonesHurricane ProportionEast NATL SST AnomalyMeanStd. Dev.Min/MaxMeanStd. Dev.Min/MaxMeanStd. Dev.Min/MaxTC11905-19306.03.21/140.580.250/1-0.380.29-0.7 +0.3TC21931-19949.73.14/210.53 0.160.13/0.860.060.25-0.5 +0.7TC31995-200515.25.18/280.550.120.33/0.710.420.28-0.1 +0.8

  • Hurricane Intensity and Proportions

  • Past Hurricane ProportionsStable proportions of hurricanes to all tropical cyclones over the past 50-100 years (the higher earlier proportions are considered due to analysis errors);

    Stable major hurricane proportions but with a marked, multi-decadal oscillation (peaks associated with equatorial developments and expansion of the warm pool).

  • Past Hurricane Numbers(Holland and Webster 2007)

  • Attribution of Changes

  • Attribution by Peak BodiesWMO IWTC-VI: Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point. IPCC:Likely that increases have occurred in some regions since 1970;More likely than not a human contribution to the observed trend;Likely that there will be future increasing trends in tropical cyclone intensity and heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs.

  • Attribution to Poor Data in Early YearsThere is no doubt that cyclones were missed early on, the question is how many?Landsea (2004, 2007) 4-6 < 1900, 2
  • Eastern vs Western Genesis and LandfallNote that the step changes in numbers are due equally to western and eastern region genesis!Changing landfall numbers is due largely to decreasing western region genesis!

    (Holland 2007)WesternEastern

  • Changing Formation Regions:1906-1955 to 1956-2005Decrease in Western CaribbeanDecrease over Lesser AntillesGeneral Increase in Northern RegionSpread intoEastern Atlantic(Holland 2007)

  • Relationship to SST

  • Mean Peak IntensityNo real change in peak intensity since 1906 as SST has increased, as predicted by earlier studies (e.g. Henderson-Sellers et al 1997)

  • The SST/Tropical Cyclone RelationshipWe emphasize that the SST-TC relationship is not entirely direct, but also arises from related atmospheric environmental changes (e.g. Goldenberg et al 2001; Delworth 2006; Kossin and Vimont 2007; Holland and Webster 2007b).

    19062005(Holland and Webster 2007)

  • The SST/TC, Hurr, Maj Hurr Relationship9-10 TCs4 Hurricanes2 Maj Hurr1 TC for each 0.1oC increase in SST1 Hurricane for each 0.2oC increase in SST1 Major Hurricane for each 0.3oC increase in SST

  • Global Surface Temperature VariabilityVolcanoOzoneSulfateSolarThere is no known natural forcing mechanism that can explain the surface temperature increases since 1960 (Meehl et al 2004, 2006).IPCC concluded that it was virtually certain that the SST increases are substantially due to anthropogenic causes. Natural ForcingGreenhouse Gases

  • SST Changes in the eastern North AtlanticSanter et al (2006) clearly confirmed that the Meehl et al (2006) results for the globe are also applicable to the cyclone development regions.The bulk of the warming since 1970 is due to anthropogenic effects.

  • Atlantic SST and Atmospheric Modes of VariationSeveral studies claim a domination by natural variability (Bell and Chelliah 2005, Goldenberg et al 2001)BUTOthers disagree (Mann and Emanuel 2006, Trenberth and Shea 2005, Bryden et al 2005, Santer et al. 2006).Conclude definite internal variability but the major trend contribution has been anthropogenic.

  • THUSThe balance of evidence indicates that, while there is undoubted intra-regional variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity, there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to tropical cyclone frequency associated with the warming of the oceansBut what of the physical connections?North Atlantic hurricane variations and trends are closely associated with Sea Surface Temperatures..North Atlantic SSTs have likely increased due to anthropogenic effects.

  • Why the Eastward Expansion?East Atlantic formations are consistent with the expansion of the North Atlantic Warm Pool.Hoyos and Webster (2007)

  • African Easterly Waves (AEW) and Hurricane FormationAfrican Easterly WavesForm over Africa and move eastward across the equatorial Atlantic and into the PacificHistorically 10% have generated tropical cyclonesGenerate ~60% of Atlantic tropical cyclones, 85% of major hurricanes and most of those in the equatorial North AtlanticThus the eastward extension of tropical cyclone formation must have an association with easterly wave developments.Wikipedia

  • North Atlantic TC Location ChangesEast Atlantic SST variations explain 69% of the variance in equatorial (AEW) developments.9-y MeanTC2TC3

  • Compare 2005 with 1991-19932005:Record 30% of AEWs spawned tropical cyclones and 10% became hurricanes (Avila pers. Corresp);AEW developments provided 10 of the 14 hurricanes in 2005, all category 3-5 hurricanes, all tropical cyclones in July and August, and 8 of the 11 tropical cyclones in September and October;Two AEWs also generated two tropical cyclones each, a rare event that last occurred in 1988;1991-1993:Representative of a 20-year period of weakened equatorial cyclogenesis;No tropical cyclones formed in July, only 1 in October, and only one hurricane developed from AEWs.

  • Difference Fields 2005 to 1991-1993

  • Cyclogenesis Relative to OLR/SST MaxMost tropical cyclones and all but one of the major hurricanes formed west of the maximum OLR/SST anomaly, in decreased (more easterly) vertical wind shear and weaker lower easterly winds

  • Potential for and actual Cat 4/5(DeMaria 2006 Pers Comm)

    Chart4

    6.31250.15625

    8.72727272730.2045454545

    10.85416666670.2916666667

    11.54166666670.3125

    12.83333333330.5416666667

    16.95833333331.5833333333

    22.43752.8958333333

    25.04166666673.1041666667

    22.64583333332.2083333333

    18.43751.3541666667

    15.10416666671.0625

    16.85416666671.3541666667

    25.35416666672.5

    32.60416666673.8333333333

    32.6254.125

    28.81253.9375

    28.54.2708333333

    32.10416666674.4583333333

    33.43753.4375

    32.93752.5625

    35.39583333334.2291666667

    42.70833333337.6458333333

    49.83333333339.4583333333

    50.95454545457.6041666667

    46.843753.7291666667

    No. Days with Cat 4/5 MPI+Low Shear

    No. Days with Cat 4/5

    Year

    Days

    mpitest2

    YearCasesNfSSTSSTMSHRVMAXMPIKEMPIKEAMPIMDDMC4DMC5DC4DC5DMC4fDC4fSHRfMPIf

    1982113122.12526.127.5422.1342.595.66114.79119.0642.250.2506.31250.1562520.4675122.68

    198365166.363636363627.9127.6217.6142.23120.11135.9133.566.755.5008.72727272730.204545454520.3672727273123.6527272727

    1984330204.916666666725.6627.4422.3941.8298.47114.58109.4314.256.750.25010.85416666670.291666666720.585123.84

    1985241212.916666666727.2827.6620.0446.56112.46128.47124.6814.2570.75011.54166666670.312521.0258333333123.4333333333

    1986108198.166666666726.627.4722.3847.47101.81119.86117.236.254.50012.83333333330.541666666720.85124.825

    1987212209.583333333327.6628.1920.2331.8112.22128.1129.2813.259.750016.95833333331.583333333320.0341666667126.8016666667

    1988257265.666666666727.7227.8217.4847.27116.98134.17131.0832.25194122.43752.895833333319.2691666667126.4066666667

    198933130926.8727.8719.8751.16102.11118.66120.6520.752.56.250.2525.04166666673.104166666718.9275123.7491666667

    1990423293.7526.6728.0318.6340.19105.09120.06117.58329.750022.64583333332.208333333319.0408333333120.8325

    1991

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