hydrogen from water - haas-berkeley from water... · that produces hydrogen from water ... water...
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H2 FROM H2O A market assessment for a catalyst technologyA market assessment for a catalyst technology
that produces hydrogen from water
C2M Analysis TeamAld W d MBA 2012Alden Woodrow, MBA 2012Hannah Murnen, Ph.D 2012Ivor Castelino, MBA 2011Kyle Sandburg, MBA 2011
May 2011
THE HYDROGEN CATALYST TEAM
Alden Woodrow MBA 2012 Scientist Sponsors Energy & Cleantech Finance focus Environmental Strategy Consultant
Hannah Murnen Ph.D 2012
• Jeffrey Long, PhD
• Christopher Chang, PhD
Hannah Murnen Ph.D 2012 Sustainable Materials focus Materials Self Assembly Researcher
I C t li MBA 2011
Academic Advisors
• Beverly Alexander
• Dariush Rafinejad, PhDIvor Castelino MBA 2011 Energy & Cleantech Sales focus Technology Consultant
• Ryan Hanley
• Brooks Kincaid
Kyle Sandburg MBA 2011 Sustainable Product Development focus Technology & Sustainability Consultant
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 2
OBJECTIVE: ANALYZE THE MARKET POTENTIAL FOR A HYDROGEN GENERATING CATALYST
AND RECOMMEND A PATH TO MARKET
The hydrogen landscape
Our technology Path to marketlandscape technology
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 3
WHAT HAS LIMITED THE ADOPTION OF CLEAN HYDROGEN?
The hydrogen landscape
Our technology Path to marketlandscape technology
O i• Overview
• Production
• Use
Di t ib ti• Distribution
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 4
HYDROGEN IS EVERYWHERE
– The most abundant chemical element on earth
– Requires transformation to isolate hydrogen gas
H
– Energy source and chemical constituent
– Clean burning, future of energy?
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 5
HYDROGEN IS MAINLY PRODUCED FROM FOSSIL SOURCES…
U.S. PRODUCTION(bil kg/year)
Electrolysis 0.3~$4/kg
(SMR) Steam methane reformation
H2
~$1/kg reformation 6.9
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 6
Sources: 2008 National Hydrogen Association, US Department of Energy, Google Images
…AND MAINLY USED IN OIL AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTION
U.S. PRODUCTION
H FCVLight FCVsUtilitiesStationary fuel cellsU.S. USE
(bil kg/year)
Electrolysis 0.3 Other 0.2AerospaceFoodHeavy FCVs
Other
Electronics
Chemicals
(SMR) Steam methane reformation
Other Chemicals2.4
Refining
H2
reformation 6.9 Metals
Refining4.6
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 7
Sources: 2008 National Hydrogen Association, US Department of Energy
HYDROGEN IS EXPENSIVE TO DISTRIBUTE AT LOW VOLUMES
($/k )$2.00pipeline
large onsite
Price ($/kg)
large onsite
small onsite
generators
$6.00
$10.00
liquid
tube trailer
$40.00cylinders<200 2,000 20,000 200,000 kg
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 8
Sources: Air Products Diagram, EPRI Briefing to DOE, National Academies Press (assuming gas at 60 degrees F and 1 atmosphere)
CLEAN HYDROGEN HAS NOT MET EXPECTATIONS BUT CAN BE COMPETITIVE
Electrolysis has not replaced carbon‐intensive SMR
High costs and limited infrastructure are barriers to adoption
Opportunity at small distributed scale where willingness to payOpportunity at small distributed scale where willingness to pay is high
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 9
LBNL CATALYST LOWERS ELECTROLYSIS COST
The hydrogen landscape Path to market
Our technologylandscape
El t l i
technology
• Electrolysis
• A new catalyst
• Cost advantage
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 10
ELECTROLYSIS SPLITS WATER INTO HYDROGEN AND OXYGEN
Hydrogen OxygenHydrogen Oxygen
4H2O + 4e– 2H2O ‐ 4e–
2H2 + 4OH– O2 + 4H+
WaterCatalyst
Cathode Anode
Power supply
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 11
pp y1.23 V
CATALYST IS MAJORITY OF ELECTROLYZER CAPITAL COST
Electrolyzer capital cost breakdown
2% 2%
5%
5%
2%3%
Catalyst
Membrane
6%JDL
Bipolar Plate
Seal
CatalystCatalyst 77%
Balance of System
AssemblyCatalyst
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 12
Sources: REVIEW OF SMALL STATIONARY REFORMERS FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION (Dr. Joan M. Ogden); NREL Electrolyzer Capital Cost study
LBNL CATALYST HAS SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGES OVER PLATINUM
MolyOxo catalyst Standard catalyst
Material cost $1/oz $1800/oz$ / $ /
Water quality No treatment Treatment
Durability Robust Easily fouled
Energy ~50% ~65%gyConversion
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 13
Source: Nature May 2010
IMPACT OF CAPITAL COST REDUCTION GREATEST AT SMALL SCALE
H2 d ti l li d t ($/k ) i id l t l iH2 production levelized cost ($/kg) using grid electrolysis
Capital cost 66% 53% 35%$20 00
$18.43
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$/kg $10.31
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
Electricity Costs
Fixed O&M$
$6.83
$
$6.00
$8.00
$ Fixed O&M
Capital Costs
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 14
Source: NREL Electrolyzer Capital Cost study 10 kg/ day 100 kg/ day 1000 kg/ day
LBNL CATALYST MAKES ELECTROLYSIS COMPETITIVE AT SMALL SCALE
$6,000
Capital Cost Comparison (SMR Vs Electrolyzer)
$5,000
$6,000 SMR (Small scale)
Electrolyzer
$3,000
$4,000 (existing)
Electrolyzer (with LBNL catalyst)
$/kW
$1,000
$2,000
$0
10 kg/ day 100 kg/ day 1000 kg/ day
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 15
Sources: Review of Small Stationary Reformers for Hydrogen Production (Dr. Joan M. Ogden); NREL Electrolyzer Capital Cost study
REDUCTION IN CATALYST VOLTAGE INPUT HAS LARGEST IMPACT ON COST OF PRODUCED H2
Baseline Cost ($18.43)
Voltage input (0.5V to 1.5V)
Cost of electricity (+/‐ 30%)
Catalyst cost reduction (‐90% to ‐25%)
$15.00 $16.00 $17.00 $18.00 $19.00 $20.00 $21.00
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 16
Source: C2M Team Analysis based on electrolysis cell potential
HOW SHOULD THE LBNL CATALYST BE BROUGHT TO MARKET?
The hydrogen landscape Path to market
Our technologylandscape
A li ti fit
technology
• Application fit
• Competition
• Optimal business model
P f t t• Performance targets
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 17
SMALL SCALE APPLICATIONS OFFER GREATEST OPPORTUNITY
Insight Market CriteriaInsight Market Criteria
Large decrease in capital cost Markets where capital cost is high percent of overall costpercent of overall cost
SMR has strong cost advantages at Niche markets where large scale electrolysis has advantage
Feed stock electricity costs drive economics
Markets with access to cheap electricity
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 18
LBNL CATALYST ALIGNS BEST WITH FOUR APPLICATIONS
Ammonia Production
Oil Refining
Metal Fabrication
Barriers to entry Semiconductors
Framework Criteria
Metal Fabricationentry
Switchingcosts
/
Food & Bev
Commercial Marine
Yachting
Hydrogen Peroxide
Float GlassSubstitution/ competition
Volume usageFuel Cell Vehicles
g
Medical Drugs
Grid Storage
Market size/ potential
B t Fit A li tiBest Fit Applications• Distributed small scale energy generation• Power generator coolant• On‐board ICE hydrogen booster
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 19
O boa d C yd oge booste• Oxygen concentrator
CASE STUDY: POWER PLANT COOLING
d l h h l h f d
Strengths
Hydrogen gas circulates within thermal generators to remove heat from windings
+ Access to low cost electricity+ Volume output alignment+ Exceeds payback criteria+ Growth in Asia energy demand+ Thermal conductivity properties
Limitations
– Switching costs– Best with coal and natural gas
Market Details
• H2 Market Size: 2011: 25M 2020: $100M1
• Avg. H2 Purchase Price: $50/kg H2g– Limited benefits of being ‘green’
g 2 $ / g 2• Key buyers: Large utilities, Independent Power Producers
• Potential partners: GE, Siemens, ABB
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 20
Sources: 1 – Cost Model (Assumed $200k per plant, 30% of plants, and 30% of electrolyzer), Google Images, GE Energy
ADDRESSABLE MARKET SIZE TO GROW FROM $400M TODAY TO $32B IN 2020
Energy Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles
Energy Source: Mobile Military
Energy Source: Telecom
O C
Hydrogen ICE booster
Energy Source: Materials Handling 2020
2011
Power Plant Cooling
Oxygen Concentrator
$0 $5,000 $10,000
Total addressable market size (in USD millions)
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 21
Source: C2M Team Analysis based on various market potentials
NEW CATALYSTS ARE STARTING TO TRANSFORM ELECTROLYSIS MARKET
Hydrogen Gas($40B)($40B)
ElectrolyzerEquipment($300M)
CatalystProducer($200M)
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 22
Sources: Freedonia, Proton Energy Systems, Johnson Matthey, Google Images
MOST ATTRACTIVE BUSINESS MODELS ARE TO LICENSE OR PRODUCE THE CATALYST
Addressable market
Cost of entry
Value of technology
Expertise/ ability to
d
Time to Marketmarket entry technology
produceMarket
Produce H2 Produce electrolyzers
Produce catalyst License to electrolyzer
manufacturer License to catalyst License to catalyst
producer
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 23
EMERGING FORCES WOULD RAPIDLY CHANGE THE ADOPTION OF ELECTROLYSIS
Low cost intermittent
Large scale production of fuel
Global prices for intermittent
renewable sourcesproduction of fuel
cell vehiclesGHG emissions
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 24
Sources: Google Images
FURTHER RESEARCH WILL IMPROVE COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL
• Basic research– Reduce thermodynamic over potentialy p
– Research impacts of direct solar energy
• Applied research– Develop a complete electrolysis cell
– Research the use of the catalyst for fuel cellsy
• Prototype– Expand beyond lab scale
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 25
Sources: Google Images
LOW COST CATALYST CREATES VALUE FOR SMALL SCALE DISTRIBUTED HYDROGEN GENERATION
The hydrogen landscape
Our technology Path to marketlandscape technology
Cost & infrastructure barriers have limited electrolysis adoption
Lower capital cost catalyst = small scale advantage
License or produce catalyst for growing markets
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 26
THANK YOU
Venture Capital Research Catalysis
Equipment Producers Hydrogen Providers Hydrogen Users
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 27
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 28
SUPPORT SLIDES
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 29
HOW DID YOU GET TO UC‐BERKELEY TODAY?
• “Bush touts benefits of hydrogen fuel” –Feb. 2003
• “'Hydrogen Highway' Plans Riding on Misconceptions” – 2003
• Governor Schwarzenegger signs executive order to construct hydrogen highway – Apr. 2004
• “Has Schwarzenegger's hydrogen highway gone bust?” – 2009
• “R.I.P. hydrogen economy? Obama cuts y g yhydrogen car funding” ‐ 2009
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 30
Sources: CNN, Scientific American, LA Times, EXECUTIVE ORDER S‐7‐04
HOW DOES LBNL CATALYST FARE AGAINST PLATINUM ON A $/KG OF PRODUCED HYDROGEN BASIS?
$19.64 $18.43
$18.00
$20.00
$14.00
$16.00
$
$8 00
$10.00
$12.00 Fixed O&M
Electricity Costs
Capital Costs
$/kg
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$0.00
$2.00
Pt Catalyst LNBL Catalyst
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 31
Pt Catalyst LNBL Catalyst
PRIORITY APPLICATIONSPower Plant Cooling ‐ Access to low cost electricityPower Plant Cooling Access to low cost electricity
‐ Low volume demands ‐ Currently customers pay > $40/kg for delivered H2
Hydrogen booster for ‐ Increased mileage by 15‐20%diesel engines ‐ No substitute technology
‐ Relatively inexpensive retrofits required
Materials Handling (Forklifts)
‐ Large addressable market (>$1 billion)Adoption of Fuel cell powered forklifts has increased in last(Forklifts) ‐ Adoption of Fuel cell powered forklifts has increased in last 2 years
Military (Mobile) ‐ Large market open to trying new technologies ‐ Unique needs unmet by other technologies (Weight of q y g ( g
battery pack, noise factor)
Telecom ‐ Very large market that has severe power disruption issues in developing regions (70% of towers have diesel gensets)
‐ Fuel Cells and other renewables starting to become more pervasive
‐ Easier to transport water than fossil fuels
Refueling stations for ‐ Need for H2 refueling infrastructure to support penetration
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 32
Fuel Cell Vehicles of FCVs‐ Lack of competition in small scale home refueling systems
d d d f l l f l ll h l
CASE STUDY: FCV HOME REFUELING
Strengths
Hydrogen gas produced to refuel personal fuel cell vehicle
+ Large potential market+ EV stations priming market+ Expansion in home PV systems+ Limited set of buyers
Limitations
– No market today– Could increase cost of ownership
Market Details
• H2 Market Size : 2011: 0M 2020: $XM• Avg. H2 Purchase Price: $50/kg H2p
– Buyers have lots of leverageg 2 $ / g 2
• Key buyers: Auto Manufacturers• Potential partners: Utilities, Smart Grid technology companies
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 33
Source> Google Images
d f d l d h d d d b
CASE STUDY: OXYGEN CONCENTRATOR
Strengths
Oxygen is used for medical support and hydrogen is used to power distribution
+ High growth market+ Uses both H2 and O2 output+ Low‐cost catalyst needed to change dynamics
+ Size (produce 5‐10 Liters of O2)
Limitations
– Must compete with PSA on cost– Limited electrolysis solutions
Market Details
• Market Size: 2011: $380M 2020: $2,000M• Avg. Equipment Price: $800y
– Must receive FDA approvalg q p $
• Key buyers: Medical supply; Equipment• Potential partners: Hospitals, Insurance
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 34
Source> Google Images, Oxygen Concentrator market WinterGreen Research
EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS AND CATALYST PRODUCERS SHARE COMMON MARKET ENTRY
Factors of Competition
Hydrogen Gas
Electrolyzer Equipment
Catalyst ProducerFactors of Competition q p
Market Size Lifecycle Stage Lifecycle Stage Market share concentration Capital Intensity Cost Structure Average
Attractiveness Positive Neutral Negative
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 35
Attractiveness Positive Neutral Negative
EXTERNAL FORCES MAINTAIN INDUSTRY STATUS QUO
High impact Petroleum Price VolatilityL t l Price Volatility
Clean Energy Investment
Low natural gas prices
US Shifts Focus Away From Hydrogen
International Government Support
Carbon MarketsX
Japan Nuclear Explosion
BP Gulf Oil Spill
Clean Energy Fund Performance
Climate Change Support
PositiveInfluence
Negative Influence
Low ImpactExplosion
Neutral Influence
UC Berkeley: Cleantech to Market ‐ Confidential 36