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  • Tufts University

    Hydromorphology: The Shape of our Water Future

    Richard M. VogelDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

    Tufts University

    CUAHSI Web Seminar

    November 5, 2010

  • Tufts University

    Outline of Talk

    What is Hydromorphology?

    Hydromorphology Initiatives and Questions

    Why do we need Hydromorphology?

    A Few Examples

  • Tufts University

    What isHYDROMORPHOLOGY?

    A new branch of hydrology

    GEOMORPHOLOGY is to

    GEOLOGYAS

    HYDROMORPHOLOGY is to

    HYDROLOGY

  • Tufts University

    GEOMORPHOLOGYA branch of geology

    Geomorphology deals with structure of the earths surface

    and the evolution of processes controlling topography of the earth

  • Tufts University

    GEOMORPHOLOGY

    The evolution of earths topography is due to both natural and anthropogenic processes

  • Tufts University

    How did the field of Geomorphology arise?

    First use of term geomorphology was around the time of McGee (1888)

    Sack (2002) cite many other geomorphology studies prior to 1888 which did not use that term

    Field arose slowly, due to large number of new challenges relating to our understanding of the processes which govern evolution of landscapes

  • Tufts University

    HYDROMORPHOLOGYA subdiscipline of hydrology

    Hydromorphology deals with structure and evolution of hydrologic systems

    due to complex coupling between human and natural systems

  • Tufts University

    HYDROMORPHOLOGY: The Shape of Our Water Future

    Hydromorphologic problems represent scientific, social and engineering challenges related to how humans reshape fresh-water systems through modifications to the landscape, water infrastructure, and climate, and how our reshaped water systems influence life on the planet.

    Science Forum Article in progress by: R. Vogel, R. Hirsch, U. Lall, C. Vrsmarty, X. Cai, P.

    Weiskel, C. Kroll, R. Hooper, J. Stedinger, J. Salas

    A CUAHSI Hydrologic Synthesis Center Initiative

  • Tufts University

    Why do we need a new field of HYDROMORPHOLOGY?

    Human influences arenow pervasive

    Virgin watersheds no longer exist.

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    1800

    1900

    Virgin or Pristine Watersheds No Longer Exist Stationarity is Dead

    (Milly et al., Science, 2008)

    1950

    2000

    US Dam History

  • Tufts University

    The Net Impact of Dams and Human Water Use

    From: Gleick, 2003,

    Science,Global Freshwater

    Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th Century.

    Colorado River Delta Runs Dry

  • Tufts University

    It is no longer possible to ignore human impacts on hydrologic systems

  • Tufts University

    Human Impacts on Hydrologic Systems

    Proposal to Link Major Indian River Systems

    $160 Billion Capital Cost

    33 Dams (9 Major)

    30 Major Canals covering 12,500km

    34 million hectares to be irrigated (12x Area of Bangladesh) =30% of

    current

    34GW of hydropower

    Flood Control and Navigation

  • Tufts University

    Hydromorphology deals with the impacts of humans on hydrologic systems

  • Tufts University

    BeforeHumanImpacts

    Hydromorphology deals with the natural hydrologic processes

  • Tufts University

    BeforeHumanImpacts

    Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of humans on natural hydrologic processes

    After Deforestation

  • Tufts University

    BeforeHumanImpacts

    After DeforestationIrrigation

    Only

    Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of humans on natural

    hydrologic processes

  • Tufts University

    Water Pollution and Water Scarcity

    Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21stCentury

    Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans

  • Tufts University

    Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion

    Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans

    Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater

  • Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans

  • Tufts University

    Defining HYDROMORPHOLOGY

    The Science of Hydrologic ChangeDetection, Attribution, Prediction and Management

    Anthropogenic Influences on Hydrosphere Land Use, Climate Change, Water Infrastructure Interactions and Consequences

    Natural Influences on Hydrosphere Climate Variability Interactions and Consequences

    How Do We Plan For Nonstationarity?Design, Adaptation and Mitigation

  • Tufts University

    Hydromorphology: A Field/Word Needing Definition

    Field Google Hits (in millions)

    Geology 64.1Geomorphology 16.3

    Hydrology 30.9Hydromorphology 0.024

  • Tufts University

    Hydromorphology: A Word in Search of a Field

    Recent Conflicting Definitions of Hydromorphology: Classification system for soils (Rabenhorst et al., 1998) Structure of soil systems (Wilding and Lin, 2006) Physical habitat constituted by the flow regime (hydrology

    and hydraulics) and the physical template (fluvial geomorphology) (Newson and Large, 2006; Orr et al., 2008)

    A blend of hydrology, geomorphology and ecology ( pek, et al, 2009).

    The hydrological and geomorphological elements and processes of waterbody systems (European Commission, 2000).

  • Tufts University

    Human Induced Hydromorphologic problems are in their infancy

    Global Population Growth

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

    YEAR (AD)

    Popu

    latio

    n in

    Bill

    ions

  • Tufts University

    Hydromorphologic problems are in their infancy

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    How have humans reshaped fresh-water systems through modifications to the landscape, water infrastructure, and climate?

    How have our reshaped water systems influenced life on the planet?

    How has water constrained and determined climate?

    When/how will human induced hydrologic change dominate that due to climate change?

    How will we manage such changes?

    Example Questions Motivating Hydromorphology

  • Tufts University

    Human Impacts are Pervasive

    Rckstrm et al. (2009, Nature) argue thathuman impacts are now so pervasive thatat least 3 of 9 planetary boundaries havebeen crossed relating to:

    climate change,biodiversity lossnitrogen & phosphorus

    cycles.

  • Tufts University

    Planetary BoundariesRckstrm et al. (2009, Nature)

  • Tufts University

    Human Impacts are Pervasive: Groundwater Depletion Reduces Streamflow

    River and Well Hydrographs from North China Plain(from Konikow and Kendy,Groundwater depletion: A global problem, 2007)

  • 1921-20061914-2006

    Sorting Out Natural and Anthropogenic Influences

  • Tufts University

    2005 Headline: Low flow in the Colorado River Basin Spurs Water Shortage Discussion Among Seven States

    Sorting Out Natural and Anthropogenic Influences

  • Tufts University

    Natural Hydrologic and Climatic Variability

  • Tufts University

    Which Is It?

  • Tufts University

    Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

    Water and Climate

  • Tufts University

    From

    IPCC

    Nov

    2007

    Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity. (UN Secretary General, November 2007)

  • Tufts University

    The answer is generally

    yes.

    Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global

    temperatures?

    A Gallop Poll

  • Tufts University

    Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein , 2008)

    Extentof IceCover

    (millionsof sq. mi)

    1978 Year 2008

  • Tufts University

    Glacial Melt Reduction in Long Term water storage and fluxes

  • Tufts University

    Examples of human-induced climate change are now apparent on every

    continent

    National Park Service

    NA

    SA

    Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM

    US

    GS

    UK.govNA

    SA

  • Tufts University

    Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

    Jerry and Marcy Monkman

    Wetland Inundation

    andLoss

  • Tufts University

    Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

    Dr. Norbert Psuty

    -More coastal erosion

    Brandt Beach Long Beach Island, NJ

  • Tufts University

    Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions ScenarioCoastal Flooding in Boston under Present and High Emission Sea Levels

    Source: NECIA/UCS 2007

  • Tufts University

    Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

    AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

    Higher sea levels and more frequent flooding

    Winthrop, MA

  • Tufts University

    Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario

    Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

    http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/

  • Tufts University

    New York City : Todays 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years

    under the High-Emissions Scenarios

    Credit:: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.

  • Tufts University

    Hydromorphology Example 1

    How well do we understand the influence of urbanization processes on

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