hydropower assessment finaldraft 20feb-4

A Rapid Assessment of Hydropower Potential and Investment Opportunities in Gilgit-Baltistan

By:

Izhar Hunzai

February 2013

Islamabad

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Pakistan

Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency REEEHouse # 11-B, Street # 50, F-8/4, Islamabad

Tel: 0092-51-2851175, Fax: 2854576

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS AND ABRIVIATIONS........................................................................................................................................3

1. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE.................................................................................................................................4

2 METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................................................................52.1 Review of existing studies.....................................................................................................................................52.2 Resource assessment and baselines.................................................................................................................52.3 Data collection............................................................................................................................................................5

3 NATIONAL CONTEXT.......................................................................................................................................................6

4 WATER RESOURCES OF GB...........................................................................................................................................74.1 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................74.2 Existing Power Stations.........................................................................................................................................84.3 Under Construction Power Stations.................................................................................................................8

5 HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF GB............................................................................................................................95.1 Resource Potential...................................................................................................................................................95.2 Identified Hydropower Projects......................................................................................................................10

6 POWER DEMAND FORECAST....................................................................................................................................126.1 Summary of Demand............................................................................................................................................126.2 Population and Growth Rate.............................................................................................................................146.3 Load Centers.............................................................................................................................................................156.4 Load Demand Forecast........................................................................................................................................16

7 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNTIES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR.................................................................................167.1 Macro level situation............................................................................................................................................167.2 Why invest in GB?..................................................................................................................................................167.3 Shovel-ready projects.......................................................................................................................................... 177.4 Other potential sites............................................................................................................................................. 187.5 Real life cases...........................................................................................................................................................18

8 OPTIMIZATION OPTIONS............................................................................................................................................198.1 Extension of National Grid to GB.....................................................................................................................198.2 Optimizing capacity of existing plants and potential sites..................................................................198.3 Grid development and rationalization..........................................................................................................208.4 Scaling of community based power utilities..............................................................................................208.5 Increasing plant load factor...............................................................................................................................208.6 Proposing innovative financing model.........................................................................................................21

9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.........................................................................................................219.1 Resource availability and policy vacuum....................................................................................................219.2 Summary conclusions..........................................................................................................................................219.3 Key elements of an enabling energy policy................................................................................................22

REFERENCES............................................................................................................................................................................. 24ANNEX-I: TERMS OF REFERENCE....................................................................................................................................26ANNEX-II: MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOW OF RIVER INDUS, NEAR CHILAS......................................................28ANNEX-III: LIST OF IDENTIFIED HYDROPOWER PROJECTS IN GB..................................................................34ANNEX-III: LOAD CENTERS WITH POPULATION.....................................................................................................39ANNEX-IV: COST BTEAKDOWN OF TWO ACTUAL SITES......................................................................................49ANNEX-V: RANKING OF PRIORITIZED PROJECTS....................................................................................................60

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ACRONYMS AND ABRIVIATIONS

ADB Asian Development BAnkADP Annual Development ProgramAEDB Aletrantive Energy Development BoardAKRSP Aga Khan Rural Support ProgrammeCDM Clean Development MechanismCDWP Central Development Working GroupGB Gilgit-BaltistanGBLA Gilgit-Baltistan Legeslative AssemblyGBC Gilgit-Baltsiatn CouncilCGH Greenhouse gas emissionsGIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for

International Cooperation)IFC International Finanace Corporation KWh kilowatt-hourKW kilowattMW Magawatt NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory AutorityPLF Plant Load FactorPPAF Pakistan Poverty Alleviation FundPPIB Private Power and Infrastructure BoardPPPs Public-Private PartnershipsPSDP Public Sector Development ProgramREEE Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyRETs Renewable Enetrgy TEchnologiesUNFCCC UN Framework Convention for Climate ChangeWAPDA Water and Power Development AuthorityW&PDD Water and Power Development DepartmentWB World BAnk

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1. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE

This study, conducted for the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (REEE) program of GIZ, Pakistan, assesses potential for hydropower development in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). The study provides latest data on hydropower potential of the River Indus, its tributaries and streams, falling in GB’s administrative boundaries.

GB offers tremendous potential to generate renewable energy primarily from hydro and secondarily from solar sources. Its unique ecology, part of a larger mountain landscape known as the Water Towers of the World, serves as a vital source of water to the River Indus, on which the majority of Pakistan’s irrigation and hydroelectricity depends. Enriched with permafrost, perennial flow of water meets with significant slope gradient, giving the area unmatched advantage to generate low-cost hydroelectricity in tens of thousands of MW. The hydropower potential of GB is well established for large projects from previous assessments undertaken by Gilgit-Baltistan Water and Power Development Department (GB-W&PDD), WAPDA, and GIZ (then known as GIZ). Though vital, many of these sites are complex and long-term projects, requiring large sums of investment money and time to develop. Moreover, given the fragility of the mountain ecology, the answer may be smart, rather than mega development.

In recent years, GB-W&PDD, Private Power and Infrastrycture Board (PPIB) and Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) have identified hundreds of other sites, where technically sound, economically viable and ecologically smart projects can be built. These smaller to medium sized projects are attractive from a host of strategic perspectives. For one thing, they fall under the provincial authority, which makes them immune to national and international politics, and more feasible from a commercial point of view. They can also contribute to accelerated job and industry creation, fiscal autonomy and better local governance.

As provided in the TORs (Annex 1), the primary objective of this study was to undertake a rapid assessment of the potential for run-of-the-river hydropower projects in GB, and provide updated data. As per the scope of the assignment, the study addresses all the key components, including assessment of hydrological resources and hydropower potential in GB, identification and prioritization of sites suitable for public and private sector investments, and preparation of key way-forward recommendations.

Specifically, the study provides updated information on all high-potential sites for likely investors that have not been previously available in a consolidated form. It is an attempt to pull together relevant data on the hydropower status of GB, together with key contextual information, such as evolving provincial policy, hydrology, existing and forthcoming public sector investment plans, population trends, demand forecast, and optimization pathways.

The study also provides actual data on two completed projects, showing cost of land acquisition, technology, related infrastructure, such as access roads, and other key aspects, likely to be useful for potential investors. This information has been obtained from original sources, such as GB-W&PDD, and WAPDA.

The primary audience for this report is the Government of GB, especially W&PDD. However, the ultimate users of this report can be all the stakeholders, especially potential investors, planners and policy-makers, both in GB and at the federal level. As part of GIZ Pakistan’s REEE mandate, the study is also intended to serve as a useful resource for formulating a hydropower development policy for GB Government, with a view to attracting investment capital and promote public private partnerships (PPPs). Although the

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study does not cover policy and investment aspects in greater detail, it provides some initial ideas on likey frame principles and innovative financing mechanisms.

2 METHODOLOGY

2.1 Review of existing studies

A desk review was undertaken of existing studies and technical reports prepared or commissioned by GB-W&PDD, and national and national and international agencies working on hydropower development. In addition, policy documents prepared by GB Government, NEPRA, and AEDB were consulted. For understanding the legal, political and institutional frameworks, available and relevant information has been collected from the Government of GB, AEDB, Ministry of Water and Power and other public sources.

2.2 Resource assessment and baselines

Data and information sources available with GB-W&PDD were reviewed and collated to create the assessment baseline. Two visits were undertaken to Gilgit to collect data and hold consultations with relevant stakeholders. Expert opinion was obtained from former and serving W&PDD technical staff on key aspects of hydropower development. Latest data on key variables, such as installed capacity, capacity under implementation, current shortfalls in supply, future demand trends and future development plans were collected.

Informal discussions were also held with Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly (GBLA) members and other key stakeholders and senior officials of GB-W&PDD and Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP), to develop an inventory of key constraints, opportunities and possible short, medium and long-term term actions for hydropower development, including identification of opportunities for on and off-grid development of the energy sector.

The following aspects have been covered:

Updated information on identified sites and future development plans of GB Government

Analysis of demand trend and accessibility and other factors that facilitate and incentivize investment

Guidelines for integration of planning for private /community participation in resource development and management for sustainable development

Energy-sector transformation strategies, such as optimization pathways, grid connecetivity, and linkages with other sectors

Principles for developing an energy policy for GB, based on opportunities and challenges in realizing the hydropower potential of the area in a productive, equitable and syustanable way.

2.3 Data collection

Data for the study is collected from both primary and secondary sources. Climate and hydrological data was obtained from Pakistan meteorological department, WAPDA and other authentic sources. Data on identified sites published by Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) was updated and supplemented with additional data available with GB-W&PDD1.

1 PPIB, “Hydropower Resources of Pakistan”, 2011, available at http://www.ppib.gov.pk/HYDRO.pdf5

In addition, PC1 documents on hydropower sector developed by GB-W&PDD were studied and methodologies developed by WAPDA for demand forecast were used to assess demand for all districts in GB.

3 NATIONAL CONTEXT

Pakistan’s primary energy supplies heavily depend upon the imported crude oil and petroleum products due to which the country’s oil import bill is about $ 13 billion, which is a huge burden on the economy2. The performance of power sector of Pakistan is not so adequate in comparison to other institutions of South Asia in developing power through public and private sectors. Pakistan has consistently lacked a realistic energy outlook, and slid into an unfavorable energy mix status. The current energy mix at the national level is 48.9% natural gas, 32.2 % oil, 10.6 % hydro, 7.6 % coal, and 0.7% nuclear3, which indicate that the country’s major energy resources are gas and oil, which are the costliest options.

This high cost of generation together with uniform national tariff policy has resulted in high levels of government subsidies. The Government of Pakistan has paid an estimated amount of Rs.1 trillion in subsidies to power sector in the last four years.4 A circular debt stock has built up mainly due to high average cost of power generation in addition to many other reasons. This has further caused electricity shortages as the IPPs are facing liquidity crises and unable to procure daily fuel requirements and their power stations are operating below the rated capacity.

Pakistan’s energy policy is highly politicized, and has resulted in abandoning of key shovel-ready projects, such as Kala-Bagh Dam, as well as many other mega projects upstream of Terbela Dam. Political economy of Pakistan has opted for rental projects, lost opportunity to tap into vast hydropower resources in the north, wasted its natural gas reserves for short-term gains, and eventually led to 22 hour energy blackouts in rural areas, and decimation of industry in the cities.

The diversification of the country’s energy mix, adopting environmentally friendly and cheaper alternatives such as hydropower, and avoiding expensive and environmentally degrading generation options based on furnace oil and diesel is the need of the hour. In order to curtail the oil import bill to a sustainable level and to cater the energy needs of all sectors, the Government is pursuing policies of attracting private investment in the energy sector and to replace the imported furnace and diesel oil with alternate fuels at competitive prices with a greater reliance on indigenous resources.

Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is the principle national regulator for promoting small-scale renewable energy technologies (RETs). In its new national alternative energy strategy, AEDB has recommended special concessions for community owned plants under 5 MW. However, it has failed to include RETs in the IPP framework, and has managed to deliver just one wind-power project in the last ten years.

After the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, provinces have the authority to develop their own energy policy, and can develop up to 100 MW of hydropower projects through provincial guarantees. However, this delegation of power has happened without much preparation, and it has created more grey areas in the development, distribution and pricing of hydroelectricity.

2 http://www.pc.gov.pk/annual%20plans/2012-13/chapter-10_energy_security_and_affordability.pdf3 http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/engymix.htm4 http://dawn.com/2011/12/03/pakistan-pays-rs-1-trillion-in-energy-subsidies-hafeez/

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The provinces are struggling to develop their new policies, and small provinces such as GB, lack technical and institutional capacity for good policy-making5.

In GB, the power to legislate over key resources, such as hydropower, minerals and tourism are vested in Gilgit-Baltistan Council (GBC), the equivalent of an Upper House, headed by the Prime Minster of Pakistan, rather than the GBLA, the Lower House, which has created rifts within the provincial government. Still, the GB government is keen to incentivize the private sector to develop its hydropower resources.

4 WATER RESOURCES OF GB

4.1 Overview

The Indus Basin in GB is spread over an area of 72,496 Sq. km, of which 27% of the area is under permafrost. Some of the largest glaciers outside the Polar Regions are located in GB including Siachan, Baltoro, Hispar, Biafo, and Batura. Seven peaks above 8,000 meters are also located in GB. K2 (8,611 m), the second highest in the world, Nanga Parbat, Gashabrum I & II, Broad Peak, Mashabroom and Rakaposhi are among the highest peaks, which collect and store moisture from the Monsoon in the form of snow, and release water to the streams and rivers in the valley bottoms.

The main tributaries of River Indus in GB include Shyoke, Shigar, Gilgit, and Astore rivers. Gilgit River is joined by Hunza River near Gilgit town and they merge into the Indus about 12 kilometers downstream. According to GB-W&PDD reports, more than 236 perennial nullahs and streams and sub-tributaries drain into River Indus and its main tributaries at various locations in GB. Among these, 12 are in district Gilgit, 70 in Skardu, 25 in Diamar, 44 in Ghizer, 35 in Ghanche, 23 in Astore and 27 in Hunza-Nagar. Out of these, 45 sub-tributaries, streams and nullahs, have a minimum flow of more than 2.0 m3/s; in 27 streams, minimum flow is between 1 m3/s to 2 m3/s; in 37 streams, it is between 0.5 m3/s to 1.0 m3/s; and in the remaining 127 streams and nullahs, minimum flow is less that 0.5 m3/s.

The estimated drop down of River Indus at Diamar/Basha Dam site is 1.37 km and average annual run off is 50 MAF.6

Annual average flow of River Indus and its main tributaries in GB have been summarized in Table 4.1, and further details are attached at Annex 2.

Table 4.1: Annual average flow of Indus and its main tributaries in GB

S# Name of River Measuring Station Annual Average Flow (MAF)

1 Shyoke Yogu 8.88

2 Shigar Shigar town 5.3

3 Hunza Danyor 8.58

4 Gilgit Gilgit 7.24

5 Astore Doyan 3.51

6 Indus Basha 50.00

5 The GB Government has recently signed an MOU with GIZ for technical assistance to develop a long-term hydropower policy.6 http://www.wapda.gov.pk/pdf/financialinvestment.pdf

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Source: WAPDA and GB-W&PD Reports

4.2 Existing Power Stations

As of December 2012, operational hydropower projects of GB-W&PDD were 106, with 95.829 MW installed capacity. These projects have been constructed with public sector funding. However, many of these projects date back several decades and have completed their useful life and require major replacements.

A majority of existing projects can be upgraded and capacity enhanced, using new and more efficient technology, and using new design parameters.

District wise projects with installed capacity have been summarized in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2: Existing Power Stations

District Operational Hydropower Projects

(Nos.) Installed Capacity (MW)

Gilgit 21 34.610

Skardu 28 27.905

Diamer 18 7.700

Ghizer 10 7.554

Ghanche 08 6.760

Astore 08 4.820

Hunza-Nagar 13 6.480

TOTAL 106 95.829

Source: GB-Water and Power Department Reports and data updated as of Jan 2013.

4.3 Under Construction Power Stations

According to the plans of GB-WPDD a total capacity of around 169.6 MW would be added to the current supply by the end of around 2017, which will take the overall power generation to around 265 MW in GB. Even with this addition, the electricity produced will meet only the very basic needs and still there would be significant shortages.

The GB-W&PDD has allocated ADP resources for construction of 84 hydropower projects with 109.35 MW installed capacity, in its Annual Development Plan (ADP) 2012-13. In addition, through Federal Public Sector Development Program (PSDP), 4 projects with 60 MW installed capacity have been considered for construction in the next five years. It has been planned to complete construction of all these projects by 2017.

However, this plan is subject to availability of required funding in the coming years. However, with growing fiscal constraints and political instability in the country, implementation of these plans remains major question mark.

Presently, per capita power consumption in GBC is only 0.05 kW, which is the lowest in Pakistan. With the existing plans of expansion of the capacity of power supply through the

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public sector, it will not be possible to meet the projected additional demand and the energy crisis will exacerbate even further.

Details of under construction projects have been summarized in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3: Summary of under construction projects

S# Description No. of Projects

Capacity Approved/ Estimated Cost

Allocation

(MW) (PKR Million) 2012-13

1 ADP-District Gilgit 8 18.20 5,104.87 216.77

2 ADP-District Skardu 17 19.40 3,920.74 731.51

3 ADP-District Diamer 16 19.24 3,268.96 226.37

4 ADP District Ghizer 10 11.10 2,619.82 348.86

5 ADP-District Ghanche 9 11.70 2,280.80 135.05

6 ADP-District Astore 13 16.81 2,742.96 171.37

7 ADP-District Hunza-Nagar 11 12.90 2,306.48 179.17

Total 84 109.35 23,232.37 2,189.40

8 PSDP – Federal 4 60.00 12,065.47 191.93

Total 4 60.00 12,065.47 191.93

G. Total 88 169.35 35,297.84 2,381.33

Source: GB-Water and Power Department Reports and updated data as of Jan 2013

5 HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF GB

5.1 Resource Potential

According to AEDB, GB has maximum hydropower resources as compared to anywhere in the country. The total hydropower potential in the region has not been fully investigated, and estimates vary between 31,000 MW to 105,000 MW. This includes all sizes of hydropower plants, including storage-based and high-head schemes.

The true resource potential of GB could be even higher as these estimates do not include most of the upper Indus area and the main tributaries are almost unexplored. GIZ has carried out the most exhaustive studies of hydropower power potential, based on the flow condition of various rivers, tributaries and streams of GB. The theoretical power potential of GB assessed on the basis of topography and available flow/discharge (Q80) is 105,337.04 MW.7 See Table 5.1

In addition to these small, medium and large sized sites, there are potentially thousands of sites where micro and mini hydropower projects can be built. AKRSP, PPAF, GIZ and AEDB

7 Comprehensive planning of hydropower resources on tributaries of Indus River in NAs 13 Regions Reports by Pak –German Technical corporation, HEPO WAPDA -GTZ Lahore, March 1995.

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have provided technical and financial support to local communities in realizing some of this potential. A CDM project has also been registered with UNFCCC in the small hydropower category (Project 1713).8

Table 5.1: Hydropower Resource Potential of GB

S# Valley Total Resource Potential (MW)

1 Gilgit 2,490.91

2 Skardu 6,302.40

3 Rondu/Haramosh 9,561.26

4 Chilas 22,257.20

5 Ghanche (Shyok) 3,567.49

6 Kharmang 1,393.36

7 Ghizer 937.29

8 Gultari/Minimarg 894.06

9 Astore 45,399.20

10 Hunza-Nagar 5,917.41

11 Ishkoman 1,970.44

12 Yasin 1,851.02

13 Khunjrab 2,795.00

Grand Total 105,337.04

Source: HEPO WAPDA -GTZ Lahore, March 1995.

5.2 Identified Hydropower Projects

Detail surveys have not yet been carried out to assess all or most exploitable hydropower potential in GB. The most recent report available on identified “raw sites” is “The Hydropower Resources of Pakistan,” by Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB), published in February 2011.9

The PPIB Report lists 145 raw identified sites, with a combined capacity of 8,542 MW (see Table 5.4 in PPIB Report). However, according to GB-W&PDD, there are many gaps and inaccuracies in this report, including sites shown in other than their actual locations, incorrect names and inaccurate assessed capacity for some individual sites. For instance, the Naz Bar, Roshan and Damodar-II (actual name is Darmandar-II) are shown at Shyok River, which is a tributary of the Indus River in Kharmang, Baltistan, about 400 km in east, while the actual sites are located in Ghizer District, in the west. More glaringly, the capacity of Henzel site near Gilgit Town is shown as 40 MW, while the actual assessed capacity of this site is 20 MW. The Report also shows this site under implementation by the private sector, which is also incorrect.

8 http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/DNV-CUK1204739473.81/view9 http://www.ppib.gov.pk/HYDRO.pdf

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In 2012, the GB-W&PDD undertook a major excise to update data available in WAPDA, GIZ and PPIB reports on identified sites. According to this updated information, the identified hydropower potential on Indus River and its main tributaries is about 25,000 MW and potential on sub-tributaries is more than 1,750 MW.

The identified potential projects include 23 large projects on River Indus and its main tributaries in GB, possessing 24,980 MW of estimated capacity, which will be on-grid scenario with 90% Plant Load Factor. Among these, 14 projects possess 565 MW potential in off-grid scenario with 45% Plant Factor. More than 70 potential hydropower projects have been identified on sub-tributaries of River Indus in GB. In the on-grid scenario with 45% Plant Load Factor, these 70 projects have an estimated capacity of 1,751.5 MW. In the off-grid scenario, with 45% Plant Load Factor, the potential generation capacity of these projects will be 247 MW.

Details of potential hydropower projects in GB have been summarized in Table 5.2. Detailed list of identified potential hydropower projects in GB is attached in Annex 3.

Table 5.2: Identified Potential Hydropower Projects in GB10

S# Description Number of Site Capacity (MW)On-grid Scenario with 90% PLF

Off-grid Scenario with 45% PLF

I Mega projects on River Indus and its main tributaries

GB level 23 24,980 565

II On sub-Tributaries

1 Gilgit 6 610 29

2 Skardu 19 604 74

3 Diamer 5 102 31

4 Ghizer 19 202.5 64

5 Ghanche 6 80 14

6 Astore 8 65 18

7 Hunza-Nagar 7 88 17

Sub-total 70 1751.5 247

G. Total (I+II) 93 26,731 812

Source: GB-W&PD updated records

WAPDA is currently undertaking detail feasibility of 3 projects having potential capacity of 141 MW.

Details of these projects have been summarized in Table 5.3

10 Updated potential hydropower projects in GB, consolidated from the list of WAPDA and GB W&PD reports.11

Table 5.3: WAPDA Under Feasibility/Planning

S# Name of Project Capacity (MW)

1 Phandar 80

2 Basho 28

3 Harpo Rondu 33

Total 141

Source: GB-W&PD and WAPDA Reports

6 POWER DEMAND FORECAST

The GB W&PDD has conducted a demand forecast/power market study in GB to determine future power and energy requirements. The demand forecast has been carried out using WAPDA's trend analysis methodology that takes into account the annual electricity consumption of domestic, commercial, and other consumers.

The annual energy consumption for domestic, commercial, and other users has been assessed and the historical growth rate for each is calculated on the basis of available data collected during the survey or the information received from census authorities. The historical growth rate of each category is further adjusted for forecast, keeping in view the prevailing conditions, load factor, increase in standard of living etc. The adjusted growth rates are then adopted for each category and accordingly load demand forecast has been worked out.

WAPDA considers power energy requirement for a period of ten, fifteen and twenty years in demand forecast. However, in the electricity demand forecast study of GB-W&PDD, the period covers from 1998 to 2037. The demand estimates are made for domestic, commercial, crafts, agriculture, industries, public services and lights separately for various load centers identified in seven districts of GB.

Due to extreme weather conditions in winter and summer, GB requires considerable energy for heating and cooling purposes. In the demand forecast parameters, heating and cooling requirements have not been considered. Therefore, the amount of required demand for heating in winter and cooling in summer will increase the current demand forecast scenario.

The study parameters (urban-rural) for load demand estimation are summarized in Tables 6.1 & 6.2.

6.1 Summary of Demand

The demand forecast analysis shows energy demand of the area to be approximately 800 MW, whereas current supply is only 95 MW or 11%). Even assuming all the planed projects in the pipeline under GB’s ADP and PSDP funded projects to come on line by 2017, which is unlikely given the current fiscal problems in the country, an estimated 169.35 MW can be added to the current installed capacity, still leaving a large gap in demand.

Without a revenue base of its own, the meager financial resources available to GB from the federal government are too thinly stretched, and it is practically impossible to think of harnessing the hydropower potential without involvement of private sector investors. For

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that reason, the GB government is in the process of developing a competitive policy for attracting private sector involvement in developing this resource.

Table 6.1: Rural Demand Parameters

Sr # Consumer Type 3 - 5 Marla

7 - 10 Marla

1 - Kanal

2 - Kanal and Above

(kW)

1 Domestic 3.00 8.00 12.00 20.00

2 Commercial 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

3 Community 10.00 15.00 25.00 30.00

4 Small Industry 10.00 15.00 30.00 60.00

5 Pump Water Supply 40.00

6 Pump Irrigation

(a) In plain areas 15.00

(b) In hilly areas 25.00

7 Street Lighting 0.15 to 0.25

Source: GB-W&PD Demand Forecast Report

Table 6.2: Urban Demand Parameters

S# Consumer Type Load Per Consumer

(kW)

1 Domestic 01.30

2 Commercial 02.00

3 Community 02.00

4 Small Industry 10.00

5 Pump Water Supply 15.00

6 Pump Irrigation 07.50

7 Street Lighting 00.10

Source: GB-W&PD Demand Forecast Report

6.2 Population and Growth Rate

Population:

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In estimating load demand forecast, population census of 1998 has been used. According to 1998 census population of GB was 883,799. It has been assessed that there are 602 villages in 15 subdivisions with 104 load centers in seven districts of GB. This information has been summarized in Table 6.3.

Table 6.3: Population, Load Centers and Villages

S# District Sub Division Population # of Load Centers No of Villages

Region # I – Gilgit

1 Ghizer Gupis / Yasin 64,782 9 44

Punial/Ishkoman 56,496 6 37

Total 121,278 15 81

2 Gilgit Gilgit 148,040 10 61

Total 148,040 10 61

3 Hunza-Nagar Hunza 46,784 8 46

Nagar 51,936 7 39

Total 98,720 15 85Total 3 5 368,038 40 227Region # II – Baltistan

1 Ghanche Khaplu 65,363 9 26

Mashabbrum 24,082 6 28

Total 89,445 15 54

2 Skardu Skardu 130,664 13 78

Shiger 45,947 10 57

Kharmang 42,598 8 42

Total 219,209 31 177

Total 2 5 308,654 46 231

Region # III – Diamer

1 Astore Astore 27,413 3 15

Shunter 44,632 4 29

Total 72,045 7 44

2 Diamer Chilas 74,582 6 28

Darel / Tangir 60,480 5 72

Total 135,062 11 100Total 2 4 207,107 18 144G-Total 7 14 883,799 104 602

Source: Ibid

Growth Rate:

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The average annual growth rate varies in different districts, which has been taken from the census report. This average annual growth rate has been used for the calculation of load demand. Based on average population growth rate adopted from Census Report, the population for load centers has been worked out.

Average growth rates of different districts have been summarized in Table 6.4.

Table 6.4: Average Annual Growth Rate in 7 districts

S#

Districts Average Household Size Annual Average Population Growth Rate (%)

1. Gilgit 8.1 2.74

2. Skardu 7.8 2.24

3. Ghizer 9.0 3.08

4. Diamer 8.4 3.13

5. Astore 8.4 3.13

6. Ghanche 6.8 1.18

7. Hunza-Nagar 7.7 2.74

Source: 1998 Census Report

6.3 Load Centers

According to the W&PD study, a load center may be defined as “as a city, a town, and a cluster of villages or a concentration of population, which is economically integrated in the area”. In order to determine the load demand forecast, the GB is therefore distributed into 104 load centers. Furthermore, the load centers have been classified into three categories on the basis of their population size. The load center having a population of more than 10,000 was considered as a large cluster of population and was placed in category A. The load center having a population between 5,000 and 10,000 was likely to be called as medium and falls in category B. The load centers having a population less than 5,000 is called as small and falls in category C. The W&PDD has identified 104 load centers in three categories, out of which 28 load centers fall in category A; 52 load in category B, and 24 load centers fall in category C. The detail of the category wise load centers along with their respective population given in the census 1998 has been summarized in Table 6.5.

Table 6.5: Category wise Load Centers

S# Demand Load Centers Category Covered Population(No.)

1998

1 28 A 414,537

2 52 B 375,572

3 24 C 93,690

Total 104 883,799Source: Ibid

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6.4 Load Demand Forecast

Based on the load demand forecast study, the existing power demand of load centers in different sectors has been calculated for a time horizon of 30 years. The load demand is on the basis of projected population, but as noted earlier, does not include demand for heating, cooling and industry needs. The total load demand of seven districts in GB and expected projected demand up to year 2020 has been summarized in Tables 6.6-7

Table 6.6: Cumulative Demand Forecast and Generation

S# Description Year

2012 2016 2020 2037

1 Estimated Load Demand (kW) 225,000 350,000 500,000 757,080

2 Generation (kW) 95,000 265,000 450,000 NA

3 Gap 130,000 85,000 50,000 NA

Source: Ibid

Table 6.7: Region wise load demand forecast

S# Demand Forecast Year

2012 2016 2020 2037

1 Region-I (Gilgit) 335,917

2 Region II (Baltistan) 200,955

Region III (Diamer) 220,208

Total 757,080

Source: Ibid

7 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNTIES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR

7.1 Macro level situation

Successive governments in Pakistan have formulated investment friendly strategies but their implementation has always been problematic. Pakistan has well thought out, integrated energy development plans, with many shovel-ready projects for private sector investment, but the entire energy sector is highly politicized, and institutional and private capital investment is not coming to Pakistan.

The current IPP model was hastily designed in the middle of a looming energy crisis by a political government and carries many flaws and undue risks for investors and guarantors alike. Critically, legal battles over contractual obligations and rising costs of generation, distribution losses and defaults, have served as a disincentive for private sector investment in the energy sector, despite its huge potential in the country.

7.2 Why invest in GB?

As noted in the previous sections, GB is a treasure trove of hydrological resources, and an ideal place for generating low cost hydropower. Its remoteness, particularly the lack of National Grid connectivity, and a continuing policy vacuum have served as the main

16

barriers for private sector investment. However, GB has now a devolved political system, which allows the local government to formulate a forward-looking investment framework. There is a sense in GB, both at the policy-making and technical/ professional levels, that developing hydropower through private sector in the lead is the best option for creating a local revenue base and long-term fiscal autonomy. The model that is being discussed is that of Bhutan. As the power generated cannot be evacuated in the short to medium term in the absence of the National Grid connectivity, the GB government’s preferred option is captive generation, linked to energy intensive industries, such as marble and granite quarrying and processing. Pakistan already exports 60% of its semi-processed marble to China and GB has large-scale deposits of soft stone and other industrial minerals, close to huge demand in China, this approach holds significant promise for potential investors. Under the 18th Amendment rules, GB government can issue licenses for up to 100 MW capacity projects and for early investors the terms can be highly favorable.

Projected demand and supply shows that there is huge gap in supply to meet the energy requirements of the local population. The public sector funding is not enough to narrow the demand and supply gap, which gives opportunity to the private sector to invest in the sector to fill this gap. Local demand for commercial uses of hydropower is also expected to increase manifold as the GB government develops and adopts various policies, such as for minerals, hydropower and tourism. So, this seems to be an opportune time for smart investors to be engaged in GB and benefit from the GB Government’s investment friendly attitude for early entrants.

Due to sever energy crisis in the mainland Pakistan, the Government needs to consider extending the National Grid to the energy-rich sources in GB, so that energy needs of the country could be met in the long-term. Once the National Grid is connected to the sites of Basha Dam and Bunji Hydropower Project, the structure of incentives may change due to increased competition.

7.3 Shovel-ready projects

There are a number of readily available sites for private sector to invest in GB. These projects have been selected on the basis of detailed assessments, and found to be technically and economically most feasible. The Central Development Working Party (CDWP) has approved 4 project PC-Is of GB. These shovel-ready projects are available for private sector investment.

These projects are summarized in Table 7.1 below.

Table 7.1: Available Sites for Private sector

S# Name of the Projects Total Capacity (MW)

Estimated Cost

(Rs million)

Remarks

1 Hanzel 20 5,198.403 PC-1 recommended by CDWP on 15-08-2012.

2 Tormik Ph-II 10 1,791.943 PC-1 recommended by CDWP on 15-08-2012.

3 Ghowadi 30 8,367.973 PC-1 recommended by CDWP on 15-08-2012.

4 Hassanabad 05 1,175.070 PC-1 recommended by CDWP on 15-08-2012.

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Total 65.00 32,681.12

Source: GB-Water and Power Department

7.4 Other potential sites

In addition to the above four shovel ready projects the GB-W&PDD has prepared an updated list of 50 prioritized sites with rakings. These projects have been screened adapting an evaluation criteria devised by GIZ and AEDB (Annex V). Of these, a short list of top ten sites has been has been provided in Table 7.2 below.

Table 7.2 Top ten most feasible projects proposed for private sector investment

# Name of project

Capacity (MW)

Acc

essi

bilit

y to

si

te

Prox

imit

y to

N

atio

nal G

rid

Prox

imit

y to

lo

cal g

rid

Uni

t cos

t (i

f av

aila

ble)

Alt

itud

e of

the

site

abo

ve s

ea

leve

l

Prox

imit

y to

m

inin

g ar

ea

Secu

rity

Envi

ronm

ent/

re

sett

lem

ent /

soci

al im

pact

s

Weightage of the evaluation factor

1. Henzel, Gilgit

20 15 9 9 3 15 6 9 12

2. Tormic Ph-II, Skardu

10 15 6 6 3 15 6 12 12

3. Gowari, Ghanche

30 15 3 6 3 9 6 12 12

4. Hassanabad, Hunza

5 15 6 9 6 12 9 15 12

5. Hamaran, Bilchar, BAgrote

3.5 3 9 9 12 12 6 12 12

6. DAnyore, Gilgit

1 6 9 12 3 12 6 12 12

7. Tolti Ph III, Skardu

1 6 3 9 3 9 6 15 12

8. NAzbar ph II, Ghizer

1 9 12 9 9 12 9 15 12

9. RAikot, Muthat, Diamer

1.5 9 12 6 6 15 6 9 12

10 Ganji, Rondu, Skardu

2 3 6 9 6 12 9 12 12

Source: data from GB-W&PDD; Evaluation methodology adapted from GIZ-AEDB Inception Report.

7.5 Real life cases

More than 90% of the identified hydropower sites in GB are run-of-the-river projects, where there is minimum resettlement cost and, land compensation cost is also very low. Two projects have been studied to assess the land, infrastructure and financial resource required to develop a traditional run-of-the-river project in GB. These two projects have been executed by GB-W&PD.

Table 7.3: Cost Breakdown of Naltar IV and Talu Projects

# Project Total cost (Rs. million)

Land Acquisition (Rs. million)

Access Infrastructure (Rs. million)

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1. NAltar IV (18 MW) 1,360 44.65 47.5

2. Talu (2 MW) 815 2.75 13.0

The 18 MW Naltar IV, is a public private partnership (PPP) project, which has been completed and is now operational, and the two MW Talu project, which is a public sector funded project.

Land acquired for Naltar IV project was 140 Kanals (17.5 acres), and for 2 MW Talu, 17.3 Kanals (2.16 acres). Cost of land compensation was not more than Rs. 250,000 per kanal. In case of irrigated land, it will be up to Rs. 400,000/kanal. In case of Naltar IV, the paid land compensation was Rs. 44,650,000, while in case of Talu, land compensation has been paid for 11 kanals only as 6 kanals of land was public property. In case of 18 MW Naltar IV, an additional cost of Rs. 47.50 million (US$ 0.833 m) was incurred on the construction of an RCC bridge for transportation of heavy machinery and equipment to the project site. Additional infrastructure development cost of Talu project was Rs. 13 million.

The majority of the identified potential sites in GB have similar conditions where basic infrastructure (access roads etc.) to the project site is available; therefore, the overall investment cost of developing a hydropower project in GB will be low. However, in a few cases, it may require heavy infrastructure development to approach the project location, which may increase the cost of the project.

Full details of the two case projects are appended in Annex IV.

8 OPTIMIZATION OPTIONS

There are various pathways to optimize the identified sites, and through detailed surveys new sites could also be explored, as currently identified potential is estimated on the basis fragmentaory data. Due to non-availability of National and regional grid, all operational projects are fed into isolated grids, serving local populations. Naturally, the energy supply is different in different load centers, subject to power availability in specific areas and/or project locations.

The following could be a few optimization pathways:

8.1 Extension of National Grid to GB

Two options are available for the extension of National Grid to GB.

Appropriate transmission line linkage as pre-development of big reservoir (Diamar-Basha Dam) and run of river (Bunji) projects to transport surplus energy from GB, and engage private investors for development of small hydropower projects in GB for the benefit of national grid. The Transmission Line can be routed through Kohistan or Chitral, reserving the Babuser-Kaghan route for the main transmission line planned based on the total potential of the area. This transmission line can also be used later on to feed some areas of KPK.

Simultaneous installation of high voltage transmission based on the total tapable hydro potential of GB, without waiting for the development of big projects with connectivity facilities to the proposed regional grid of GB. In this way hydropower development in GB will be boosted both in the public and private sectors.

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8.2 Optimizing capacity of existing plants and potential sites

The generation capacity of existing plants and potential sites can be optimized, taking into consideration “off grid” and “on grid” scenarios. Many of the existing plants have outlived their useful life, and can be ungraded with minimum cost, using new technology or better design. Better planning can increase the plant load factor in the planned projects in the pipeline, by exploiting the hydrology and flow duration characteristics of each site, and by avoiding wastage of the potential.

8.3 Grid development and rationalization

Presently all the hydropower projects in GB have basically been developed for isolated off grid areas and generation is distributed among consumers through 11 KV transmission lines. These mini grids can be interlinked to facilitate wider connectivity, such as linking main towns of Gilgit, Skadru, Gakuch, Chilas, Khaplu, to better utilize access capacity and rationalize distribution to some extent. The total length of 11 KV transmission lines in GB is currently more than 3,700 km, which is mainly due to scattered load centers.

The transmission and distribution losses in GB are more than 35%, which is mainly due to non-availability of a regional grid with high voltage transmission lines. A considerable portion of existing power lines and substation equipment in GB will require reconstruction. Outdated machinery creates problems in operating the power plants and mini grids. Much capital investment is required for system modernization.

The GB-W&PD has planned to establish a regional grid in the region keeping in view the ongoing hydropower projects and location of potential sites, which would be developed in near future. An optimized regional grid for efficient transportation of power keeping in view the potential areas, emerging load centers and connectivity with the National Grid in the long run is of utmost necessity.

8.4 Scaling of community based power utilities

The GB-W&PDD is overburdened by many responsibilities, from project development, distribution and tariff collection. Power theft at various levels is a common practice. The department’s current tariff collection records show that default and theft is more than 50%.

AKRSP has piloted and expanding the concept of community-based micro power utilities. This concept is relevant to scattered demand in off-grid areas. The GB-W&PDD needs to study this model, and experiment with a decentralized, community-based approach to generation and distribution. In many areas, isolated plants can even be leased out to organized communities, with technical and management training provided by the Department or AKRSP. Similarly, responsibility for power distribution at muhalla level and tariff collection can also be outsourced to local companies, where feasible.

The community based power utility concept of AKRSP can be promoted for developing new sites under 1 MW, making local investors or local communities as partners. One practical way to do this would be for the public sector to build and maintain ‘mini grids’ and allow local investors and community organizations to generate clean hydroelectricity to feed such grids. For collection of tariff, community organizations and private sector parties may be involved.

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8.5 Increasing plant load factor

For optimum utilization of developed energy and productive use of operational plants, the power plants may be linked with private sector initiatives, and nearest growth centers to increase economic activity, such as creating related infrastructure for promoting micro businesses and industry clusters. Availability of low-cost electricity can create ‘growth poles’ in remote rural areas, and provide expanded opportunities for productive activities. Sustainable supply of electricity will help promoting clusters of energy and green businesses to stimulate and support economic activity and job creation in the remote mountain valleys of GB.

8.6 Proposing innovative financing model

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) and AKRSP are working together to develop an off-grid model for hydropower development for targeted productive uses with private sector financing options. The focus of investment will be providing required energy for developing potential growth sectors such as marble and mineral processing, livestock products, agro-forestry processing and tourism. The financing model involves leveraging public funds to raise community and local equity for investing in hydropower and business development, as well as linking up with carbon finance and /or ‘social / green venture funds’ and allied investment services, such as those under consideration by Acumen Fund, Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF). This model will initially share the risk and give comfort for the private sector to invest in off-grid hydropower development.

9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

9.1 Resource availability and policy vacuum

The unique topography and hydrology of GB holds unmatched potential for generating low cost hydropower. The hydropower potential of GB is well established for large projects, such as the Diamer-Basha Dam and Bunji and other high potential projects in 100s and 1000s of MW in capacity. But these are complex and long-term projects, requiring large sums of investment money and time to develop. However, there are hundreds of other sites for building technically sound, economically viable and ecologically smart projects.

These mini and small sized projects are attractive from a host of strategic perspectives. For one thing, they fall under the provincial authority, which makes them immune to national and international politics, thus making them more feasible from a commercial point of view. They also contribute to fiscal independence and better local governance.

Developing even a fraction of this vast resource can be a boon, not only for the GB economy, but also for agricultural and industrial development in the whole of Pakistan. Energy security through hydropower development can reduce dependence on fossil fuels and contribute to national development and its stability.

9.2 Summary conclusions

Basically, a potentially large resource exists next to a huge energy deficit in Pakistan. Why this demand has not met with the potential supply remains a major question mark in Pakistan. The missing link appears to be not lack of good planning or investment capital, technology or expertise, but smart policies and political will.

The ideal scenario would be the development of shovel-ready projects, including Diamer-Basha Dam and the Bunji Hydropower projects, addressing the long-term energy needs of the country. However, this option may not be realizable in the near future, given the

21

current fiscal environment and objections from India, which has effectively blocked financing from multilateral lenders.

The second best option would be extending the National Grid to GB, and allow private sector to crowd-in the energy market. However, the GB government has no influence on national policy and resource allocation decisions to make this happen. The energy policy is highly politicized in the country, and the economic argument alone is not sufficient to sway national policy and action.

In the absence workable national level initiatives in the sort and medium terms, what is that the GB government can do to develop it energy, mineral and other strategic resources? The key opportunity available to the GB Government is to use its recently gained autonomy to craft a smart post-18th Amendment energy policy that puts private sector in the lead, and allow it to create revenue and jobs for the government, and market-based services for industry and other consumers.

The GB government is currently 100% fiscally dependent on the Center. Hydropower can give it the necessary fiscal muscle in the long-term to enjoy its political autonomy. As it emerges from its long physical and political isolation, GB has an opportunity to integrate with the national energy and capital markets.

Realizing hydropower potential through private investment and through PPPs requires streamlining the coordination between the various agencies within GB, such as GBLA and GBC, and with national agencies, such as PPIB, NTDC, AEDB and WAPDA. The capacity of GB-W&PDD and P&DD, and other technical and regulatory institutions to process investment proposals needs to be enhanced. Once a policy and regulatory framework is in place, competitive bidding procedures should be adopted to ensure a level playing field to potential investors.

Energy efficiency is as important, if not more important, as energy development. Investing in and upgrading oldest plants located in prime sites should be a key consideration. Reducing system losses and improving conservation of heat through thermally efficient buildings must be part of the long-term energy development and efficiency agenda.

From an investment point of view, the following conclusions can be drawn.

The cost of hydropower development in GB is relatively low as compare to national and international standards; therefore it could be very attractive for private sector and financing agencies to invest in hydropower development in GB

From the two cases studies covered in this report, the installed cost is Rs. 83,571 (Naltar) or Rs 1.85/ kWh, and in Rs. 120,684 (Talu) per kW, or Rs 2.15 kWh.

There are many shovel-ready projects that the GB government has already proposed for private sector investment. In addition, a long list of raw sites is also available with preliminary ranking, using a criteria developed by GIZ and AEDB

The higher the capacity of the project, the lower the cost of development, therefore higher capacity projects could be a better option to invest

Major resettlement cost is not involved in construction of hydropower projects in GB, except temporary displacements during construction of the projects.

Basic infrastructure is available in most cases; therefore, no major cost is involved in basic infrastructure development for the projects.

Development of hydropower projects by clubbing it with viable mining, cottage or tourism industry for captive power generation and also facilitating local industries

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and consumers from the spillover or surplus energy may be the most preferred option.

Energy banking or wheeling concept can also be applicable

9.3 Key elements of an enabling energy policy

The future energy policy of GB must focus on short, medium and long-term objectives. Instead of giving across the board subsidies, investment incentives must be targeted at specific long-term goals, such as fiscal autonomy, industrialization and productive uses, and energy export. The policy can offer long-term tax incentives and public subsidies to investors who contribute to sector development, such as upgrading local grids and integrating them into a regional grid, or captive energy generation.

Specifically, key elements of GB’s energy policy could include the following principles:

Simplified regulation and institutional capacity, including a one window service and specified turnaround time for processing investment proposals

Creating synergies with wider economic development goals and sector development policies, such as mineral development, irrigation, industrialization, and achieving seamless integration in development strategies

Targetted incentives and concessions, linked to specific targets and outcomes

Provisions for multi-scaled investments, from micro, community-based utilities, to captive power generation and export

Fostering responsible investor behavior, incorporating corporate social responsibility (CSR) and encouraging local equity participation in joint ventures

Incorporating sustainable development principles in investment policy, maximizing positive and minimizing negative impacts of investment

Promoting a partnership approach among public, private and community sector stakeholders

Opening up multiple opportunities for investment for sector development, such as generation, distribution, technology development, skills and professional training

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REFERENCES

1. “Comprehensive planning of Hydropower Resources on Tributaries of Indus River in NAs: Report on 13 Regions” (Lahore: Pak-German Technical Corporation, HEPO, WAPDA-GTZ, 1995).

2. “Feasibility Report on Establishment of Regional Grid Gilgit-Baltistan” (Gilgit: Water & Power Department, GB, 2010)

3. “Hydropwer Respurces of Pakistan” (Islamabad: Private Power and Infrastructure Board [PPIB], 2011).

4. “Gilgit-Baltistan Economic Report: Broadening the Transformation” Report no. 55998-PK (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010).

5. Douglas G. Hall, “Hydropower Resource Assessment of Brazilian Streams” (Idaho: National Laboratory, USA, 2011).

6. http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/future-index.html 7. http://www.wapda.gov.pk/vision2025/default.asp 8. GB W&PD, Various Consultants Reports9. GB-W&PD, Data and Reports10. “Power Load Centers in Northern Areas” (Lahore, ACE Consultants (Pvt) Ltd., 2007).11. “Integrated Energy Plan” Report of the Energy Expert Group (Islamabad, Economic

Advisory Council, Ministry of Finanace, GOP, 2009).12. Hussian, S. “Barriers in Renewable Energy Development in Pakistan” Paper no. 268

available at: http://pecongress.org.pk/images/upload/books/268.pdf13. “Compilation of Updated InformationOn Grid Connected Micro, Mini & Small Hydel

Stations And Recommendations of 25 Sites for Private Investment: Inception Report” (GTZ-AEDB, REEE, 2010)

14. http://www.wapda.gov.pk/pdf/financialinvestment.pdf 15. http://www.pc.gov.pk/annual%20plans/2012-13/chapter 10_energy_security_and_affordability.pdf

16. http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/engymix.htm

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http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/engymix.htm

http://www.pc.gov.pk/annual%20plans/2012-13/chapter%2010_energy_security_and_affordability.pdf

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/pdf/financialinvestment.pdf

http://pecongress.org.pk/images/upload/books/268.pdf

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/vision2025/default.asp

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/future-index.html

ANNEX-I: TERMS OF REFERENCE

Terms of Reference for carrying out rapid assessment study of hydropower potential in Gilgit-Baltistan

Background:

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency (REEE) programme in Pakistan was initiated in 2005, with a focus to promote renewable energy (RE) technologies and industrial energy efficiency (EE). The programme supports its partners, both from the public as well as the private sectors, in promoting solar energy, hydropower and biomass technologies in Pakistan. For promotion of EE, the programme is supporting the introduction and implementation of the energy management systems (EnMS) in four industrial sectors of Pakistan along with capacity development of energy managers and energy services companies (ESCOs). The programme also provides advisory services to its partners for the development of national and provincial policies along with suitable market-based financial/economic instruments for large-scale and household level investment in RE and EE such as feed-in tariffs for RE technologies, EE financing mechanisms and microfinance for rural energy services. Furthermore, the programme is also supporting the institutional development of key partner organizations with the objective to improve their managerial and technical capacities and ensure that the partner organizations are able to continue promoting RE & EE in Pakistan well beyond the GIZ REEE programme intervention.

The Water and Power Department (W&PD) of the government of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is one of the aforementioned key institutions that the GIZ REEE programme is cooperating with. In addition to institutional development, GIZ REEE and the GB W&PD have agreed several other areas of cooperation, such as assessment of hydel potential in GB. For this purpose, GIZ REEE intends to procure the services of a suitable and qualified consultancy firm to carry out a rapid assessment of the potential for run-of-the-river hydropower that can be installed in the province by interested private sector entities.

Objective:

The objective of the assignment is to carry out a rapid resource assessment to quantify the potential for run-of-the-river hydropower that can be incentivized through a hydropower development policy for interested private investors.

Scope of work:

The consultant will have to carry out the rapid assessment activities in consultation with GB W&PD and GIZ REEE based on the following:

Assessment and updating of the available published data such as:o hydrology o already identified hydropower siteso listing of potential hydropower sites available for development in the private

sector (not including sites that are part of the government of GB’s hydropower development plan)

26

o assessment and review of the power demand forecast study of the GB region Optimization of the identified sites for connection with and power supply to the national

grid (on-grid power) Recommendations on land, infrastructure and financial resources requirements for

hydropower development in GB using data of two sample sites (will be provided by the GB W&PD) as reference

Level of Effort and Duration

The assignment has to be completed within 35 calendar days (including travel days, preparation work prior to meeting with GB W&PD and work in the home office) of signing of contract. The assignment will commence at the signing of contract and must be completed by mid-December, 2012.

Deliverables

1. Activity Plan to be submitted within two days of the signing of the contract. The plan should include but not limited to end date of the assignment, meetings with GB W&PD, GIZ REEE, visit(s) to potential sites, total days on field and total days in the home office.

2. Draft Report and an accompanying presentation comprising of the rapid assessment to GB W&PD by the 25th day of award of contract. GIZ REEE and GB W&PD will comment on the same and return it to the consultant within 5 calendar days.

3. The consultant will prepare a final report incorporating the comments of GB W&PD and GIZ REEE by the 35th day of award of contract.

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ANNEX-II: MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOW OF RIVER INDUS, NEAR CHILAS

Months Average Flow (m3/S)Jan 391.51Feb 359.54Mar 350.96Apr 471.19May 1,339.33Jun 4,053.68Jul 6,134.41

Aug 5,760.84Sep 2,535.01Oct 927.75Nov 573.61Dec 455.85

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Hydrograph of River Indus, Near Chilas

Flow Duratian Data of River Indus, Near ChilasDuration (% age of

year) Flow5 7,142.96

10 5,887.7620 3,949.5430 2,195.9140 1,068.9950 663.3260 506.7670 422.180 380.4590 344.5195 321.64

100 244.38

5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1000

10002000300040005000600070008000 Flow Duration Curve River Indus, Near Chilas

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Flow Duratian Data of River Indus, Near Chilas (Diamar/Basha Dam Site)

% Age of the Year FlowQ100 244.38Q95 321.64Q90 344.51Q80 380.45Q70 422.1Q60 506.76Q50 663.32Q40 1,068.99Q30 2,195.91Q20 3,949.54Q10 5,887.76Q5 7,142.96Q0 13,007.32

Monthly Average Flow of River Indus, Near ShingusMonths Average Flow (m3/S)

Jan 220.13Feb 209.46Mar 205.39Apr 270.24May 723.98Jun 2,457.25Jul 4,258.63

Aug 3,895.99Sep 1,576.98Oct 540.37Nov 322.69Dec 249.07


1000

2000

3000

4000

Hydrograph of Indus River, Near Shingus

Monthly Average Flow of River Indus, Near Shingus% Age of the Year Flow

5 5,250.5510 4,142.5720 2,435.5430 1,267.7840 611.2450 371.8760 292.3870 250.3780 223.990 19395 172.33

100 134.7829

5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Flow Duration Curve Indus River Near Shingus

Monthly Average Flow of River Gilgit, Near DanyourMonths Average Flow (m3/S)

Jan 59.12Feb 51.68Mar 46.93Apr 66.47May 224.02Jun 771.84Jul 810.47

Aug 645.05Sep 373.06Oct 141.37Nov 93.41Dec 77.98


100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Hydrograph of River Gilgit,Near Danyour

Monthly Average Flow of River Gilgit, Near Danyour% Age of the Year Flow

5 1113.0110 886.1820 564.6530 295.1640 155.350 98.5560 79.7970 62.2980 53.1490 46.5895 35.52

100 32.25

30

5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Flow Duration Curve of River Gilgit, Near Danyour

Monthly Average Flow of River Hunza, Near DanyourMonths Average Flow (m3/S)




200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Hydrograph of River Hunza, Near Danyour

% Age of the Year Flow5 1,400.96

10 1,145.2420 596.3930 301.4140 143.1250 83.2360 64.5670 51.7180 42.2790 35.995 33.62

100 27.38

31

5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1000

200400600800

1000120014001600

Flow Duration Curve in River Hunza, Near Danyour

Flow of River Shayoke, Near Hamayun BridgeMonths Average Flow (m3/S)




200400600800

10001200140016001800

Hydrograph of River Shayoke, Near Hamayun Bridge

Average Flow of River Shayoke% Age of the Year Flow

5 3,633.3810 2,848.8420 1,788.6830 953.1140 465.950 277.6260 214.8270 181.8280 162.1590 140.2395 125.88

100 105.22

32

5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 1000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Flow Duration Curve River Indus, Near Hamyun Bridge

33

ANNEX-III: LIST OF IDENTIFIED HYDROPOWER PROJECTS IN GB

S# Site

Capacity (MW)Storage

Live (MAF)River

On-grid Scenario with 90% Plant Factor

Off-grid Scenario with 45% Plant Factor

I Mega Project Sites On River Indus and Its Main Tributaries

1 Basha Diamer 4,500 - 6.4 Indus

2 Raikhot 670 - Indus

3 Bunji 7,100 - Indus

4 Yulbo 3,000 - Indus

5 Tungus 2,100 - Indus

6 Skardu 2,500 - 15.5 Indus

7 Thorgu Pari 2,500 - Indus

8 Yugo 520 - Shayoke

9 Sher Qila 250 88 Gilgit

10 Kanch 420 122 Gilgit

11 Hamuchal 250 50 Gilgit

12 Glodas 200 20 Ishkoman

13 Sakarkoi 120 50 Gilgit

14 Gilgit near KIU 200 50 Hunza

15 Nasirabad 120 50 Hunza

16 Hassanabad/Altit 100 30 Hunza

17 Ganish 85 25 Hunza

18 Passu 45 10 Hunza

19 Hisper 30 10 Hisper

20 Doghro / Damel Shiger 35 10 Basha

21 Ghursey 50 20 Saltoro

22 Siksa 35 10 Shayoke

34

23 Olding 150 20 Suro/Karkit

Sub Total 24,980 565

II Sites On Sub-Tributaries

A Gilgit District River/Nullah

1 Kargah 120 10 Kargah Nullah

2 Sai Juglote 75 5 Sai Nullah

3 Nomal/Nalter 200 4 Nalter Nullah

4 Farfoo Bagrote 150 2 Bagrote Nullah

5 Haramosh 25 3 Khaltaro Nullah

6 Haramosh 40 5 Dasu Nullah

Sub Total 610 29

B Skardu District

1 Stak Phase-II 250 20 Stak Nullah

2 Talu Phase-II 45 5 Talu Nullah

3 Tormik Phase-III 35 5 Tormik Nullah

4 Kachura 50 Developed Kachura Nullah

5 Gole 3 1 Gole Nullah

6 Doro 10 3 Doro Nullah

7 Sermik Phase-IV 15 4 Sermik Nullah

8 Buro 15 2 Mehdiabad

9 Katisho 6 1 Mehdiabad

10 Tolti Phase-IV 10 2 Tolti Nullah

11 Kindrik Kharmang (II & III) 15 3 Kindrik Nullah

12 Girakhdo (MDS) 8 2 Girakh Nullah

13 Torgun 20 4 Torgun Nullah

14 Olding Phase-II 10 2 Olding Nullah

15 Shigar 12 3MW developed Shigar nullah

16 Hoo Phase-II 8 1 Hoo Nullah

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17 Naislo Phase-II 7 2 Naislo Nullah

18 Besil 5 1 Besil Nullah

18 Arindo 5 1 Arindo Nullah

19 Gultari area 75 15 Gultari Nullah

Sub Total 604 74

C Diamer District

1 Thack Phase-III 25 2 Thack Nullah

2 Batogah Phase-VI 15 2 Batogah Nullah

3 Thore 12 2 Thore Nullah

4 Daril Phase-V 25 10 Daril Nullah

5 Tangir Phase-III 25 15 Tangir Nullah

Sub Total 102 31

D Ghizer District

1 Singul 15 Developed Singul Nullah

2 Barogah Ishkoman 35 10 Ishkoman

3 Hasis 3 1 Hasis Nullah

4 Haton on Gupis River 50 20 Gupis River

5 Grunger 3 1 Grunger Nullah

6 Buber Nullah 2.5 1 Bubur Nullah

7 Drapuk 3 1 Drapuk Nullah

8 Dalnati 3 1 Dalnati Nullah

9 Chatorkhand Nullah 2 1 Chatorkhan

10 Chantir Gah Ishkoman 25 10 Chantir Gah

11 Sosat 2 1 Sosat Nullah

12 Nolti 7 3 Nolti Nullah

13 Dahimal 8 3 Dahimal Nullah

14 Darmadar Phase-II 15 4 Darmadar

15 Handrub 10 2 Ghizer River

36

16 Thoi Khimat 5 1 Thoi Nullah

17 Madoli 3 1 Modoli Nullah

18 Serbal 3 1 Serbal Nullah

19 Chumarkhan (2 sites) 8 2 Chumarkhan

Sub Total 202.5 64

E Ghanche District

1 Thalley Phase-III 25 3 Thalley Nullah

2 Hushey 30 2 Hushey Nullah

3 Lachat 10 5 Kundus River

4 Thagus 2 1 Thagus Nullah

5 Farawa (Gulshan-e-Kabir) 3 1 Farawa Nullah

6 Saltoro 10 2 Saltoro River

Sub Total 80 14

F Astore District

1 Parishing-1 (Stage-II) 15 2 Parishing Nullah

2 Bubin Phase-II 20 5 Bubin Nullah

3 Ratu 5 2 Ratu Nullah

4 Gangodas 3 1 Gangodas Nullah

5 Aspey Phase-II 2 1 Aspey Nullah

6 Gahkoch 2 1 Gahkuch Nullah

7 Haton Phase-II 3 1 Haton Nullah

8 Daskharim 15 5 Mini Chilim

Sub Total 65 18

G Hunza-Nagar District

1 Hassanabad 25 Developed

2 Lupghar 3 1 Lupger Nullah

3 Shishkhut 3 1 Shishkhut Nullah

4 Dahiter Stage-II 10 2 Dahiter Nullah

37

5 Budalas Phase-II 25 4 Budalas Nullah

6 Chaprote 12 5 Chaprote Nullah

7 Bar 10 4 Bar Nullah

Sub Total 88 17

GRAND TOTAL 26,731.5 812

38

ANNEX-III: LOAD CENTERS WITH POPULATION

S# Load Center Category Population

1998

1 Gurikote A 15,785

2 Rehman Pur A 13,249

3 Botogah / Khiner A 10,185

4 Chilas A 17,212

5 Gohar Abad A 10,338

6 Guner Farm A 10,603

7 Thore / Hudor A 17,046

8 Gaber Tangir A 11,832

9 Juglote A 12,630

10 Manical A 13,707

11 Samical A 14,076

12 Khaplu A 13,119

13 Tause A 11,704

14 Chatrokhand A 10,240

15 Gahkuch / Bubar A 11,587

16 Ishkoman A 14,259

17 Damote / Sai Pain A 13,998

18 Danyour A 17,420

19 Gilgit A 40,363

20 Haramosh A 13,393

21 Nomal A 21,587

22 Oshkhandas / Jalal Abad A 14,735

23 Shukyote A 11,209

24 Shain Bar A 11,070

25 Gultari A 12,228

39

26 Shigari Khurd A 13,259

27 Skardu / Olding A 26,912

28 Stak A 10,791

Total 414,537

1 Bunji B 9,802

2 Chongrah B 9,981

3 Prishing B 7,630

4 Minimarg B 5,942

5 Zilabala B 9,656

6 Thak Nayat B 9,198

7 Khanbery / Dodushal B 8,235

8 Balghar B 6,112

9 Bara B 7,337

10 Karis B 7,162

11 Kharku B 6,193

12 Kuro B 8,766

13 Siksa B 7,868

14 Machlu B 5,676

15 Thagas B 5,610

16 Gupis B 5,881

17 Hundur / Sil Gan B 8,946

18 Phandar B 6822

19 Sumal B 5,934

20 Taru B 6,421

21 Thoi B 6,752

22 Yasin B 7,336

23 Saingal B 6,334

24 Sherqillah B 9,177

25 Bagrote B 5,962

40

26 Ali Abad B 8,735

27 Baltit B 5,168

28 Gujal No 2 B 7,348

29 Shinaki B 9,906

30 Fakar B 6,026

31 Gulmit B 5,139

32 Hoper B 6,707

33 Nagar B 7,516

34 Sikander Abad B 6,591

35 Sumayar B 8,887

36 Chunda B 6,405

37 Ganji B 6,717

38 Gole B 6,821

39 Kachura B 7,982

40 Kowardu B 8,059

41 Mendi B 9,623

42 Shigari Kalan B 9,921

43 Tormik B 7,969

44 Alchori B 6,362

45 Gulab Pur B 7,621

46 Markunja B 5,454

47 Tisar B 5,580

48 Baghicha B 5,417

49 Hamzigond B 5,010

50 Mehdi Abad B 6,788

51 Tarkati B 6,696

52 Tolti B 6,391

Total 375,572

1 Frano C 4,185

41

2 Thaley C 4,621

3 Ghursay C 4,413

4 Kundus C 2,800

5 Pharawa C 2,786

6 Saltoro C 2,797

7 Pingal C 4,986

8 Hatoon C 4,899

9 Chakarkote / Sai Bala C 4,820

10 Sakwar C 4,553

11 Altit C 4,710

12 Ganish C 2,959

13 Gujal No 1 C 4,100

14 Hyder Abad C 3,858

15 Hussain Abad C 3,977

16 Basha C 4,539

17 Braldo C 2,700

18 Chhurka C 4,184

19 Daso C 3,348

20 Marapi C 4,167

21 Nar C 1,992

22 Katisho C 3,906

23 Kharmang C 4,910

24 Memosh C 3,480

Total 93,690

Grand Total 883,799

42

Load Centers with their Connected Areas

Sr # Load Center Connected Areas

A Region # 1 – Gilgit

1 District Ghizer

1.1 Gupis / Yasin Sub Division

1.1.1 Gupis Gupis, Hamardass, Jandarote, Khalti

1.1.2 Hundur / Sil Gan Barkulti, Darkut Proper, Hundur, Omalsit

1.1.3 Phandar Dalomal, Ghashi, Phandar, Shamaran

1.1.4 Pingal Bathi, Dahimal, Noulti, Pingal, Thangai

1.1.5 Sumal Darmadar, Gamsing, Hakis, Roshan, Sumal

1.1.6 Taru Gulaghmooli, Hundrab, Taru

1.1.7 Tause Gojalti, Howalti, Nazbar, Qarkulti, Sandi Bala, Tause

1.1.8 Thoi Cheryat, Dalkoi, Daraskin, Darich, Haraf, Nolti, Shoote

1.1.9 Yasin Bejiyot, Damalgand, Gandai, Murkah, Nuh, Yasin

1.2 Punial / Ishkoman Sub Division

1.2.1 ChatrokhandAnwar Abad, Asumbar, Chatrokhand Chinar, Dain, Kuchdeh, Pakora, Barjungle, Shones

1.2.2 Ghakuch / BubarAnwar Bagh / Silpi Bala, Golodas, Bubar Bala & Pain, Juranjer, Ghakuch, Kanchi

1.2.3 Hatoon Famani, Birgal, Hasis, Hatoon

1.2.4 Ishkoman Barjhugle, Batswat, Balhanz, Borth, Gishgish, Immit, Kolorang,

1.2.5 Saingul Gich, Gulmuti, Japuke, Singal, Thingdas

1.2.6 Sherqillah Dalnti, Gullapure, Sherqillah

2 District Gilgit

2.1 Gilgit Sub Division

43

2.1.1 Bagrote Bilchar, Bulchi, Datocha, Furfooh, Sinakar, Taisote

2.1.2Chakarkote / Sai Bala

Chakarkote, Ghasho, Maidan Chakarkote, Pahote, Sabil, Shamrote

2.1.3 Damote / Sai Pain Damote (Bala & Pain), Darote, Juglote Sai, Paidandas, Pari

2.1.4 Danyour Danyour, Hopa, Masnat, Didinddass

2.1.5 GilgitJutial, Khomer/Nagral, Majini Mohallah/Kashrote, Amphare, Burmas, Nopora/Baseen, Konodass

2.1.6 HaramoshChamo Ghar, Daso(Jutial), Khaltaro, Hanuchal, Dache, Kutwai, Shuta, Shahtot, Sasi

2.1.7 NomalJuglote / Nomal, Jutal, Darchin, Barche, Naltar Bala & Paeen, Nomal, Darukush, Rahimabad, Sultanabad

2.1.8Oshkhandas / Jalal Abad

Jalal Abad, Batkor, Sianken, Oshkandas

2.1.9 Sakwar Minawar, Sakwar

2.1.10 ShukyoteBargo Bala, Bargo Pain, Hanzel, Shilmish, Jagir Basin, Karagh, Sharote, Shukyote

3 District Hunza – Nagar (Proposed)

3.1 Hunza Sub Division

3.1.1 Ali Abad Ali Abad, Hassanabad, Murtzabad

3.1.2 Altit Ahmad Abad, Altit, Attabad, Faizabad, Gamasaret, Sarrat

3.1.3 Baltit Karim Abad (Baltit)

3.1.4 Ganish Ganish (Kalan), Garelt, Garm Ganish, Mominabad

3.1.5 Gujal No 1Ainabad, Buriat, Gulkin, Gulmit/Chaman Gul, Hussani, Passu, Shimshal, Shishket Bala

3.1.6 Gujal No 2Aspanji, Galapan, Gircha, Khudabad, Khyber, Kill, Kirmin, Markhoon, Misgar, Ramingi, Reshet, Shehr Subz, Shitmarg, Sost, Nazimabad, Yarzirich, Zudkhun

3.1.7 Hyder Abad Door Khan, Hyderabad

3.1.8 Shinaki Hussain Abad, Khanabad, Khizerabad, Mayoon, Nasirabad (Hindi)

44

3.2 Nagar Sub Division

3.2.1 Fakar Dadiamal, Fakar, Miachar

3.2.2 Gulmit Gulmit, Masote, Minapin, Murko, Pison, Yal

3.2.3 Hoper Broshal, Hakalshal, Hisper, Rath/Hoper/Ratal

3.2.4 Nagar Ghotas, Hamari, Haraigiram, Konjo Koshal, Helo Koshal, Thole

3.2.5 Shain BarBarkhas, Budulas, Chalt Bala & Pain, Chaporate, Dodaydas, Gowachi Bala, Mamushdiding, Rabbat Bala & Pain, Sonokoote, Tarbatedas

3.2.6 Sikander Abad Hopaye, Jaffarabad, Nilt, Skanderabad, Thole

3.2.7 Sumayar

B Region # 2 – Baltistan

4 District Skardu

4.1 Skardu Sub Division

4.1.1 Chunda Chunda, Hotto, Tandal, Tinjus

4.1.2 Ganji Ganji, Talu, Talu Broq, Yulbo

4.1.3 Gole Duro, Gole, Sermik, Shila

4.1.4 GultariBunyal, Frahsat, Gultari, Guniyal, Karabosh, Kooner, Phultak, Showaran, Thali, Thanote

4.1.5 Hussain Abad Gamostur, Hussainabad, Nansoq, Thurgo Bala & Pain

4.1.6 Kachura Basho, Kachura, Mardacho, Pandas, Parang Ghalcho, Shagar Thang

4.1.7 Kowardu Kowardu, Qumara, Stran Lungma

4.1.8 MendiAskoyo, Bilamik, Hango, Harbot, Hardas, Harpoh, Mendi, Nawashehar,Shoat, Thorche

4.1.9 Shigari Kalan Gamba Skardu, Hoto Ranga, Ranga, Shigari Bala & Kalan

4.1.10 Shigari KhurdAstana, Giayul, Katpana, Khalang Ranga, Kushmara, New Ranga, Satpara, Shigari Khurd, Sondus

4.1.11 Skardu / Olding Olding, Satellite Town, Khargrong, Kushmara, Chummik,

45

Sukmaidan, Gangupe

4.1.12 Stak Lashi Thang, Shingus, Stak, Thowar, Triko

4.1.13 Tormik Baghardu, Baghicha, Chhari, Dasu, Tormik, Tungus

4.2 Shigar Sub Division

4.2.1 Alchori Alchori, Bharinig Bama, Hashopi, Kashmal, Mango, Sildi, Yuno

4.2.2 Basha Arando, Bain, Bisil, Dogro, Doko, Saisko, Sibri

4.2.3 BraldoAskoli, Chongo, Hoto, Kurfa, Monjing, Pakora, Sino, Surongo, Thongul, Tistay

4.2.4 Chhurka Chhurka, Rissar

4.2.5 Daso Biano, Daso, Foljo, Gomru, Nid, Sidar, Tiston

4.2.6 Gulab Pur Bundo, Gulab Pur, Niali, WazirPur

4.2.7 MarapiBarq Chun, Ginapi Rupi, Kothang Bala & Pain, Marapi, Sarfa Ranga, Tutkhor Khurd

4.2.8 Markunja Markunja, Memd Chanmo, Thungmo, Tutkhor Kalan

4.2.9 Nar Goro, Nar, Narbuchung

4.2.10 Tisar Chutron, Demal, Hamisal, Niaslo, Thurgo, Tisar

4.3 Kharmang Sub Division

4.3.1 Baghicha Baghicha , Ingut, Mayordu, Pari

4.3.2 HamzigondChechetheng, Ganokh, Ghavis, Hamzigond, Marol/Dansor, Palpaldo, Sinkarmo

4.3.3 Katisho Chatpa, Dapa, Katisho, Koltor, Tolty Bruq

4.3.4 Kharmang Ghandus, Kharmang, Kindrik, Thang

4.3.5 Mehdi AbadBedong, Dogbar, Ghashing, Mantho, Manthoka, Mehdiabad, Panda, Serling

4.3.6 MemoshBrisil 2, Brolmo Bilargo, Brolmo9Bresil 1), Memosh/Memosh Thang

4.3.7 Tarkati Hargosil, Olding, Shiriting, Tarkati, Torghon

46

4.3.8 Tolti Kamango, Kusuro, Madopur, Saindo, Tolti

5 District Ghanche

5.1 Khaplu Sub Division

5.1.1 Balghar Balghar, Doghni

5.1.2 Bara Bara, Kharfak, Yogu

5.1.3 Frano Frano, Marchha, Partuk, Thagmos Kalan

5.1.4 Karis Gon, Makhro, Thakhor

5.1.5 Khaplu Khaplu

5.1.6 Kharku Kharku, Saling, Sogho

5.1.7 Kuro Ghuwari, Kunis, Kuro

5.1.8 Siksa Chuwarsiari, Dawoo, Hassan Abad, Kuwas, Piun, Siksa

5.1.9 Thaley Thaley

5.2 Mashabbrum Sub Division

5.2.1 Ghursay Abadan, Ghursay, Lungkha, Surmo, Yochung

5.2.2 Kundus Karmani, Khorkon, Lachhat, Talcho Chhogogrong, Thang

5.2.3 Machlu Hushey, Kandey, Machlu, Marzigond, Talis

5.2.4 Pharawa Domsum, Pharawa

5.2.5 Saltoro Chuligond, Gaglod, Goma, Mandik, Sehat

5.2.6 Thagas Baley Gond, Haldi, Khaney, Sini-Barq Khor, Thagas, Tholdi

C Region # 3 – Diamer

6 District Astore

6.1 Astore Sub Division

6.1.1 Bunji Bulachi, Bunji, Dashkin, Doyan, Khud Kisht, Turbling

6.1.2 Chongrah Bulan, Chongrah, Eid Gah, Harcho, Patipura

6.1.3 Prishing Fina, Gutumsar, Loas, Prishing

47

6.2 Shunter Sub Division

6.2.1 GurikoteAhmad Abad, Bubino, Dashkarm, Gudai, Gurikote, Nowgam, Pakorah

6.2.2 Minimarg Kolashi Bala, Kolashi Pain, Mapnu Abad, Minimarg, Piswari, Qamari

6.2.3 Rehman Pur Chorite, Chugam, Rattu, Rehman Pur, Terashing, Zia Pur

6.2.4 ZilabalaDirlah Bala, Dirlah Pain, Faqir Kot, Frucha, Gashat, Gomai, Ispa, Marmay, Mirmalik, Sakamal

2 District Diamir

7.1 Chilas Sub Division

7.1.1 Botogah / Khiner Botogah, Gichi, Khiner

7.1.2 Chilas Chilas, Barushki, Basha, Thalpan

7.1.3 Gohar Abad Bargin, Durrang, Gas Bala, Gas Pain, Gohar Abad, Jilli Pur, Thalichi

7.1.4 Guner FarmBunar Das, Bunar Khas, Dong, Ginna, Guner Farm, Lachre, Muthat, Tato

7.1.5 Thak Nayat Nayat, Thak / Babusar

7.1.6 Thore / Hudor Hudor, Minar, Thore, Thurli

7.2 Darel / Tangir Sub Division

7.2.1 Gaber Tangir

Bagyot, Bashkomal, Bayoon, Dabas, Darkali Bala, Darkali Pain, Doong, Gali Bala, Karonga Bala, Karonga Pain, Khami Kote & Baskomal, Koochi, Mushka, Pabay, Phaphat, Phuruli, Sabokote, Sairy, Shabnial

7.2.2 Juglote Diamir, Gali Pain, Juglote, Lurk, Rim, Shaikho, Shumari

7.2.3Khanbery / Dodushal

Baylo, Charkail, Cheeter, Cheeter Dasway, Daboote, Dunial, Gichier, Hodocal, Jut, Khurin, Koh, Kot, Manin, Naray, Nimi, Sair, Suwach, Thilkuch

7.2.4 ManicalByady,Chachly, Dalote, Geoute, Jadooree, Junishal, Kehtea, Latee, Manikal Bala, Manikal Pain, New Cote, Padial, Shahi Mehal, Sheout

7.2.5 SamigalBachi, Badan, Beshal, Gayal, Gumari, Hilati, Kabosh, Katokuch, Majinee, Phuguch, Samigal Bala, Samigal Pain, Shagray, Tabote

48

ANNEX-IV: COST BTEAKDOWN OF TWO ACTUAL SITES

1.NAME OF PROJECT: 18 MW, NALTER-IV

(GENERAL INFORMATION)

CAPACITY: 18MWAPPROVED COST: Rs. 1,360.214 MillMODE OF FINANCE: 72% Credit Loan From EXIM Bank of China an28% GOP Share.DATE OF START: 29th July 2003DATE OF COMPLETION: 31ST DECEMBER 2006JOINT OPERATION PERIOD: 01 Year after completion of the Project. NAME OF CONSULTANT: Associated Consulting Engineers (ACE) LahoreNAME OF CONTRACTOR: China Liaoning International Economic & Technical Cooperation

Corp. Group Ltd. (CLIC) P.R China

TYPE OF CONTRACT: Turn KeyAREAS TO BE BENEFITED: Gilgit Town & Surrounding Area.

BOTTLENECKS FACED Over all delay for 05 months due to law & order situation in Gilgit. Delay in passing of land compensation awards by Deputy Commissioner Gilgit despite depositing of

Rs. 20.400 million in June 2005. Delay in receipt of acquaintance rolls. Temporary displacement of 140 households of Nalter Paeen due to earth work/ blasting on power

channel. Resettlement and compensation of damages/crops. Delay in extension of Loan agreement by the Finance Division Islamabad. Delay in issuance of NOC by the Ministry of KA & NA to the Engineers of Water & Power Department

for inspection of machinery at the works of manufacturer in China and delay in shipment of the Turbo Generating sets.

Blockade of KKH at Shishkat due to avalanche upto last week of June, 2006 and frequent blockade of KKH due to slides delayed transportation of material/equipment from

49

TECHNICAL FEATURES

CAPACITY: 18MW(GENERATION DURING LEAN FLOW PERIOD: FEBRUARY, MARCH

Peak Hours: 18MW Off Peak Hours: 8.5MW

NUMBER OF UNITS: 03 (6MW Each)TYPE OF TURBINE: PeltonDESIGN DISCHARGE: 5.10m3/S (3x1.70)NET HEAD: 419 mLIVE STORAGE CAPACITY OF FRONTBAY: 36,000m3

ENERGY GENERATION PER ANNUM: 112.64GWhGENERATION VOLTAGE: 11 KVTRANSMISSION VOLTAGE: 66 KVNO. OF TOWERS: 106 NOS.HEIGHT OF TOWERS: 17.7-28 MetersSPAN OF TOWERS: 65-479 MetersPOWER LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION LINE: 5%PENSTOCK PIPE: 02 KmDIAMETER OF PENSTOCK: 1.2 MeterTHICKNESS OF PENSTOCK: 8-20 mmPOWER CHANNEL: 4Km RCC (1.8 Km Cover Slab)STEPUP SWITCHING STATION: 11/66 KVGRID STATION: 66/11 KVNo. OF 11KV OUTGOINGFEEDERS AT GRID STATION: 06CONSTRUCTION COST PER KW: Rs. 83,671/-PRODUCTION COST

50

PER UNIT (KWh): Rs.1.85DIVERSION WEIR: 17 MeterDE-SILTING BASIN: 800 m2

POWER CHANNEL: 4.12 KmPOWER HOUSE: 616 m2

TURBO GENERATOR: 03 Nos AUXILIARY STATION: 258 m2

STEPUP STATION (11/66KV): 1426 m2

STEPUP TRANSFORMER15MVA (11/66KVA): 02 NosINCOMING & OUTGOING CIRCUITBREAKERS IN THE STEPUP STATION: 05 NosTRANSMISSION LINE (66 KV): 28 KmGRID STATION AT GILGIT: 3350 m2 STEPDOWN TRANSFORMERS 15MVA (66/11KV): 02 NosINCOMING & OUTGOINGCIRCUIT BREAKERS IN THE GRID STATION: 12 NosAPPROACH ROAD: 14.5 KmRCC BRIDGE (100M SPAN) OVER HUNZA RIVER: 01 No

COMPONENT WISE COMPLETION COST

Approved Cost of the Project: Rs. 1,360.214 million

Foreign Aid from EXIM Bank of China US$ 16,310,011.00S# Description Amount ($US) Amount (Rs.)

A. Civil Work

1 Survey and Design charges 696,084.11 41,765,046.60

51

2 Spill Way Dam 43,4691.00 26,081,460.00

3 Water Intake Gates 30,725.00 1,843,500.00

4 Open Diversion Channel 1,030,733.00 61,843,980.00

5 Sand and Water Drainage Gates 32,528.00 1,951,680.00

6 Forebay 1,689,625.00 101,377,500.00

7 Power House Foundation 223,303.00 13,398,180.00

8 Power House 181,965.00 10,917,900.00

9 Tailrace 10,530.00 631,800.00

10 Support Pillars of Penstock 141,526.00 8,491,560.0011 Construction of Approach Road, improvement and re-alignment of existing roads

Nomal-Nalter439,215.68 26,352,940.80

12 Construction of RCC Bridge over Hunza River 833,333.32 49,999,999.2013 Additional Cost for Change of Structure from stone masonry to RCC 1160000.00 69600000.00

Sub- total: 6,904,259.11 414,255,546.6B. E&M Work

1 Penstock pipe 1,515,559.00 90,933,540.00

2 Support for Penstock Pipe 32,205.00 1,932,300.00

3 Turbo Generating Sets 3,587,635.00 215,258,100.00

4 Lifting Equipment 41,605.00 2,496,300.00

5 Auxiliary Equipment 12,276.00 736,560.00

6 Electric Equipment 2473920.00 148,435,200.00

7 Spare Parts 17,749.00 1,064,940.00

8 Transmission Line 1,023,456.00 61,407,360.00

9 Installation of above items 769,564.00 46,173,840.00

10 Step-up Transformers of Power House 225,355.00 13,521,300.00

11 Grid Station i/c all Civil and E&M work 1,374,000.00 82,440,000.00

12 Joint Operation Cost 5,964.00 357,840.00

13 Tax & Duties 1,184,249.00 71,054,940.00

14 Insurance of the Project 200,000.00 12,000,000.00

Sub- total: 12,463,537.00 747,812,220.0

52

C. General Items

1 Construction of Site Office 7445,000.00

2 Construction of Camp Accommodation 4,963,000.003 Vehicles, Motorcycles, Truck and Computers 13,060,000.00

4 3% contingencies 37,738,000.00

5 2% provision for PMU & W.C. staff 25,159,000.00

6 Consultancy services 26,325,000.00

Sub- total: 114,690,000.0D. Land Compensation

1 Land Compensation (Stage-I) 26,930,000.00

2 Land Compensation (Paid through PC-I) 17,720,000.00

Sub- total: 44,650,000.00Grand total (A+B+C+D): 193,677,96.11 1,321,407,766.6

E. Detail of Payment made to EXIM Bank of China1 Commitment Fee 138,681.50 8,185,554.00

2 Management Fee 40,775.75 2,347,868.00

3 Interest 2,557,408.06 174,142,322.00

Sub- total: 2,736,865.31 184,675,744.0

Total Project completion cost (A+B+C+ D + E) 22,104,661.00 1,506,083,510.6

LAND AND TREES ACQUIRED FOR CONSTRUCTION

TOTAL LAND ACQUIRED: 140 KanalsPRIVATE CULTIVATED: 40 KanalsPRIVATE UN- CULTIVATED: 35KanalsGOVT. BARREN LAND: 65 KanalsTREES OF DIFFERENT KINDS AND SIZES: 4,000 Nos.

MANPOWER ENGAGED ON THE PROJECT

53

CLIENT: 3 Engineers and 15 staff.CONSULTANT (ACE): 03 Engineers and 07 staff with back-up Design Experts in Head Office, Lahore.

CHINESE CONTRACTORChinese Engineers & Workers: 226Local Laborers: 80

MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT DEPLOYED ON THE PROJECT

CLIENT: 03 Pick ups and 04 Motorcycles CONSULTANT (ACE): 02 Vehicles

CONTRACTORVehicle: 05 Winch Machine: 02Excavator: 05AC Welding Machine: 06Bulldozer: 02DC Welding Machine: 02Loader: 02Electric Saw: 02Roller: 01Hook Bending Machine: 02 Dump Truck: 06Steel Bar Cutting machine: 02Tip Truck: 04Concrete Cube Press machine: 01 Mobile Crane: 02

54

Concrete Vibration Table: 01Air Compressor: 12Laboratory Equipment: Complete Set

Drill Machine: 14 Concrete Mixer Mobile: 06

Diesel Generator: 06Stone Crushing Machine: 03Concrete Batching Plant: 02 Sieving Machine: 02Concrete Vibrator Machine: 05 Water Pump: 12Pneumatic Pick: 05

SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS FOR CHINESE WORKERS

SUPERVISION AND PATROLLING BY ARMY DSP KEY POINTS IG OFFICE GILGIT WAS INCHARGE OF SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS. 01 PLATOON OF N.A SCOUTS AT HURMAY NALTER PAEEN 1x10 POLICE AT HURMAY NALTER PAEEN 1 PLATOON N.A SCOUTS AT NOMAL CHINESE CAMP AND MICRO POWER HOUSE 1x5 F.C AT GRID STATION SITE GILGIT 2 SECURITY OFFICERS OF WATER & POWER DEPARTMENT ALONG WITH 22 WATCH AND WARD PERSONS FOR THE SCATTERED EQUIPMENTS AND MATERIALS IN BETWEEN RAHIMABAD TO NALTER

RCC BRIDGE-SALIENT FEATURES

55

SPAN: 100m (330 ft)CLEARED WIDTH: 5.4m (17.71ft)LOADING CAPACITY: 40 TonsDRILLED PILES: 08DEPTH OF PILES: 22m (7ft)DIAMETER OF PILES: 1.5m (5.7ft)COMPLETION COST: Rs. 47.50 Mill. (US$ 0.833 Mill.)CONSTRUCTION COST PER METER: Rs. 0.475 MillionCOMPLETION TIME (06 Months): October, 2004 to March, 2005

COMPONENT WISE COMPLETION COST OF E & M WORK

COST OF MACHINERY i/c TURBINE, EXCITATION SYSTEM, GOVERNING SYSTEM, PROTECTION SYSTEM, AUTOMATION SYSTEM, MAIN VALVE, HIGH VOLTAGE PANELS ETC COMPLETE;

For 03 Units 3 x 63,000,000: Rs.189,000,000PENSTOCK PIPE: 1.9 Km Rs. 300,000,000TRANSMISSION LINE: 28 Km Rs.158,567,280SWITCH YARD AT POWER HOUSE: 01 No. Rs.82,440,000GRID STATION AT GILGIT: 01No. Rs.82,440,00011KV FEEDERS AT GRID STATION:08 Nos. Rs.3,021,600

56

Total: 815,468,880

57

2. NAME OF PROJECTS: 02 MW HYDROPOWER PROJECT TALUS# ITEM OF WORKS SIZE COST (Rs. Mill)1 Land compensation

· Private Cultivable land 10 Kanal 11 Marlas 909938.00 2.723

· Private Un Cultivable land 05 Marlas 18687. 50

· Govt land 06 Kanal 10 Marlas Nil

17 Kanals 06 MarlasStructural Damages and Trees of various sizes 732 Nos 1794375.00

Total 2723000.502 Head works 15’ 0.3483 Power Channel i/c by pass channel 655 ‘ 5.8564 Sand trap / de-settling basin 100’ x 26’ x 15’ 7.45 Fore bay 30’ x 26’ x 15’

6 RCC pipe pedestal i/c anchor block Pillars 174 Nos 5.7967 Tailrace 350’x 3’ x 4’ 7.7988 Power House 2100 Sft9 Waste way and spill channel 450’ 2.61710 Duty room 638 Sft

(Stone masonry work i/c RCC ) 1.031

11 Sub Station 1248 sft


12 Billing office (03 Nos) 3No 2967 Sft


13Re- const. of damaged public channel and structure ( Stone masonry )

850 Rft 0.901

14 Access Road 450 Rft 0.102

15 RCC bridge (40ft Span) 2 No 40ft Span 5.55316 RCC Culverts (3.5 ft Span) 8 No 0.86717 Widening /Imp. Of existing road 4.18 Km 2.43818 Strengthening of existing suspension bridge over Indus River 300 Rft 4.086

19HDP pipe from head work to fore bay for passing of water to irrigation purpose

1000 Rft 0.448

21 Support wall for settling tank/ fore bay 200’ 0.647

58

22 Barbed wire fencing 2100’ 1.5623 Anchor block of Y-joint 7 Nos. 2.301

Total 58.295

E&M WORKSS# Item of Work Size Completion Cost (Rs. mill)1 T/G set 1250 KVA capacity 02 Nos 103.63102) Penstock pipe 28″ dia of various thickness

100 rft = 20mm 40.955

a) 650 rft = 15mm

b) 525 rft = 12mm

c) 1125 rft = 09mm

d) 1300rft = 06mm3 (a)Transmission line 11 KV 14 Km 15.76

(b) Ttransformers 630 KVA x 44 Telecommunication Base 1.681

Total:- 163.532

4 Furniture 0.76

5 POL 2.884

6 Staff Supervision 6.38

Sub Total:- 173.556

Total (A+B):- 231.851

7 5% (3%Contingencies+2%work charge staff) (A+B) 9.517

Grand Total: 241.368

59

SALIENT FEATURES

Description Talu Roundu

Design discharge 0.85 m3/s

Gross head 338m

Installed capacity 2MW

Average annual energy 9.68 GWh

Load factor 40%

Plane factor 56%

Penstock length 1159 m

Type of turbine Pelton wheel

No of units (Turbine) 02 No

Rated flow per unit 0.425 m3/s

Generator Out put 2 x 1000 KW

Transformer capacity 4 x 630 KVA

Total Cost Rs 241.368 Million

Installed cost per KW Rs. 241.368/-

EIRR 23.45

FIRR 15.31

BC Ratio 1.37

Unit cost per KWh Rs 2.15

60

ANNEX-V: RANKING OF PRIORITIZED PROJECTSEVALUATION SHEET FOR RANKING OF SITES

EVALUATION / RANKING OF SITES FOR SELECTION OF MOST PROMISING SITES

SR. N

O. Evaluation

(Parameter (Factor)

RATIONALE FOR THE SELECTED PARAMETER

Wal

king

Tra

ck E

xits

new

Ro

ad R

equi

red

Appr

oach

Roa

d Ex

ists b

ut

requ

ires m

ajor

repa

irs

Appr

oach

Roa

d Ex

ists b

ut

mod

erat

e le

vel r

epai

rs

requ

ired

Appr

oach

Roa

d Ex

ists b

ut

requ

ires m

inor

repa

irs

Site

App

roac

habl

e w

ithou

t an

y di

fficu

lty/G

ood

Appr

oach

Roa

d Ex

ists

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Eva

luat

ed

fact

or (W

eigh

tage

mul

tiplie

r)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

eva

luat

ed

fact

or

1 2 3 4 5

1 Accessibility to Site

If the site is easily accessible / approachable, transportation is much faster. This parameter can significantly affect a project's schedule and cost. 3

S # Name of Project Capacity (MW)

01 20MW Hydro Power Project Hanzel Gilgit 20 ● 5 3 15

02 10 MW Hydro Power Project Tormik Ph-II Skardu 10 ● 5 3 15

03 30 MW Hydro Power Project Ghowari Ghanche 30 ● 5 3 15

04 05 MW Hydro Power Project Hassanabad Hunza 5 ● 5 3 15

62

05Construction of 3.5 MW Hydro Power Project Hamaran Bilchar Bagrote Gilgit (unapproved)

3.5 ● 1 3 3

06Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project Danyore Gilgit (unapproved)

1 ● 2 3 6

07Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project Manthokha Ph-II Skardu (unapproved)

1 ● 1 3 3

08 01 MW Hydro Power Project Tolti Ph-III Skardu (unapproved) 1 ● 2 3 6

0902 MW Hhydro Power Project Ganji Roundu Skardu (unapproved)

2 ● 1 3 3

10Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Riakote Muthat Diamer (unapproved)

1.5 ● 3 3 9

1101 MW Hydro Power Project Nazbar Ph-II Ghizer (unapproved)

1 ● 3 3 9

1201 MW Hydro Power Project Sherqilla Ph-III Ghizer (unapproved)

1 ● 3 3 9

13Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Saltoro (Seth) Ghanche (unapproved)

1.5 ● 3 3 9

14Construction of 02 MW Hydro Power Project Dichal Dashkin Astore (unapproved)

2 ● 1 3 3

15 Construction of 02 MW Hydro power Project Yeshleto Astore 2 ● 4 3 12

63

Stage-1 (unapproved)

1604 MW Turbo Generating Sets and allied Civil works for Stage-II Gudai Astore (unapproved)

4 ● 4 3 12

17Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project at Tarishing Astore (unapproved)

1 ● 3 3 9

1802 MW Hydro Power Project at Hisper River Nagar-1, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

2 ● 4 3 12

191.700 MW Hydro Power Project Hassanabad Ph-V Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

1.7 ● 3 3 9

200.500 MW Hydro Power Project at Chalt Nagar-II, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

0.5 ● 4 3 12

210.500 MW Hydro Power Project Mayon Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

0.5 ● 2 3 6

22 Hamuchal Ghizer (Raw site) 50 ● 4 3 12

23 Golodas Ghizer (Raw site) 20 ● 4 3 12

24 Passu Gojal Hunza (Raw site) 10 ● 1 3 3

25 Hisper Nagar (Raw site) 10 ● 1 3 3

26 Nomal / Nalter Gilgit (Raw site) 4 ● 4 3 12

64

27 Haramosh Dasu Nullah Gilgit (Raw site) 3 ● 4 3 12

28 Haramosh Khaltro Nullah Gilgit (Raw site) 5 ● 3 3 9

29 Stak Phase-II Roundu Skardu (Raw site) 20 ● 4 3 12

30 Talu Phase-II Roundu Skardu (Raw site) 5 ● 3 3 9

31 Tormik Phase-III Roundu Skardu (Raw site) 5 ● 3 3 9

32 Doro Skardu (Raw site) 3 ● 3 3 9

33 Sermik Phase-IV Skardu (Raw site) 4 ● 4 3 12

34 Buro Katisho Nullah Skardu (Raw site) 2 ● 4 3 12

35 Hoo shigar Phase-II Skardu (Raw site) 1 ● 2 3 6

36 Naislo shigar Phase-II Skardu (Raw site) 2 ● 2 3 6

37 Besil shigar Skardu (Raw site) 1 ● 2 3 6

38 Arindo shigar Skardu (Raw site) 1 ● 2 3 6

39 darel Phase-V Diamer (Raw site) 10 ● 4 3 12

40 Tangir Phase-III Diamer (Raw site) 15 ● 4 3 12

65

41 Barogah Ishkoman Ghizer (Raw site) 10 ● 3 3 9

42 Hoton on Gupis River Ghizer (Raw site) 20 ● 4 3 12

43 Dalnati Ghizer (Raw site) 1 ● 4 3 12

44 Darmadar Phase-II Ghizer (Raw site) 4 ● 2 3 6

45 Handrub Ghizer (Raw site) 2 ● 3 3 9

46 Parishing-1 (Stage-II) Astore (Raw site) 2 ● 4 3 12

47 Bubin Phase-II Astore (Raw site) 5 ● 3 3 9

48 Dahiter Stagte-II Hunza-Nagar 2 ● 4 3 12

49 Budalas Phase-II Hunza-Nagar (Raw site) 4 ● 3 3 9

50 Chaprote Hunza-Nagar (Raw site) 5 ● 2 3 6

Total: 318.2

66

Nati

onal

Grid

is

avai

labl

e m

ore

than

400

Km

Nati

onal

Grid

is

avai

labl

e M

ore

than

300

Km

Nati

onal

Grid

is

avai

labl

e M

ore

than

200

Km

Nati

onal

Grid

is

avai

labl

e M

ore

than

100

Km

Nati

onal

Grid

is

avai

labl

e w

ithin

50 K

m

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Ev

alua

ted

fact

or

(Wei

ghta

ge

mul

tiplie

r)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

ev

alua

ted

fact

or

1 2 3 4 5

2 Proximity to the National Grid.

Proximity to national grid has major impact in terms of easier connectivity with the main load centers, certainty for maximum utilization of energy and attractive for the private investors.

3






05 Construction of 3.5 MW Hydro Power Project Hamaran Bilchar Bagrote Gilgit (unapproved) 3.5 ● 3 3 9

06 Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project Danyore Gilgit (unapproved) 1 ● 3 3 9

07 Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project Manthokha Ph-II Skardu (unapproved) 1 ● 1 3 3


67

09 02 MW Hhydro Power Project Ganji Roundu Skardu (unapproved) 2 ● 2 3 6

10 Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Riakote Muthat Diamer (unapproved) 1.5 ● 4 3 12

11 01 MW Hydro Power Project Nazbar Ph-II Ghizer (unapproved) 1 ● 4 3 12

12 01 MW Hydro Power Project Sherqilla Ph-III Ghizer (unapproved) 1 ● 3 3 9

13 Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Saltoro (Seth) Ghanche (unapproved) 1.5 ● 1 3 3

14 Construction of 02 MW Hydro Power Project Dichal Dashkin Astore (unapproved) 2 ● 3 3 9

15 Construction of 02 MW Hydro power Project Yeshleto Astore Stage-1 (unapproved) 2 ● 3 3 9

16 04 MW Turbo Generating Sets and allied Civil works for Stage-II Gudai Astore (unapproved) 4 ● 2 3 6

17 Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project at Tarishing Astore (unapproved) 1 ● 2 3 6

18 02 MW Hydro Power Project at Hisper River Nagar-1, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 2 ● 2 3 6

19 1.700 MW Hydro Power Project Hassanabad Ph-V Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 1.7 ● 2 3 6

20 0.500 MW Hydro Power Project at Chalt Nagar-II, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 0.5 ● 2 3 6

21 0.500 MW Hydro Power Project Mayon Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 0.5 ● 2 3 6


68





27 Haramosh Gilgit (Raw site) 3 ● 3 3 9










69


38 Arindo Shigar Skardu (Raw site) 1 ● 1 3 3

39 Darel Phase-V Diamer (Raw site) 10 ● 4 3 12



42 Hotoon on Gupis River Ghizer (Raw site) 20 ● 4 3 12






48 Dahiter Stagte-II Hunza-Nagar (Raw site) 2 ● 3 3 9



70

Loca

l Grid

is

avai

labl

e m

ore

than

50

Loca

l Grid

is

avai

labl

e w

ithin

- 50

Km

Loca

l Grid

is

avai

labl

e w

ithin

20

Km

Loca

l Grid

is

avai

labl

e w

ithin

10

Km

Loca

l Grid

is

avai

labl

e w

ithin

5 K

m

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Ev

alua

ted

fact

or

(Wei

ghta

ge

mul

tiplie

r)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

ev

alua

ted

fact

or

1 2 3 4 5

3 Proximity to the Local Grid

Availability of local grid in close proximity of site has major impact in terms of time/cost saving and proper distribution of power generation.

3











71















72















73














74

per K

w c

ost i

n th

e ra

nge

of U

S$ 2

500

and

abov

e

per K

w c

ost i

n th

e ra

nge

of U

S$ 2

000

to 2

499

per K

w c

ost i

n th

e ra

nge

of U

S$ 1

500

to 1

999

per K

w c

ost i

n th

e ra

nge

of U

S$ 1

001

to 1

499

per K

w c

ost i

s up

to u

p US

$ 10

00

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Ev

alua

ted

fact

or

(Wei

ghta

ge m

ultip

lier)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

ev

alua

ted

fact

or

1 2 3 4 5

4 Cost/kW installed (Where available)

Availability of sustained discharge, high head, less expenses on the related works (including Civil works, eletro mechanjical systems, penstocks etc.) have direct impact on the Cost of per kW of the installed capacity. 2








75















76















77





39 darel Phase-V Diamer (Raw site) 10 ● 1 3 3










78



79

Altit

ude

abov

e 90

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

abov

e 80

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

abov

e 70

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

abov

e 60

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

belo

w

5000

feet

AM

SL

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Ev

alua

ted

fact

or

(Wei

ghta

ge

mul

tiplie

r)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

ev

alua

ted

fact

or

1 2 3 4 5

5 Altitude of the Site above mean sea level

A site located at lower altitude will have longer working season, which has significant impact on the cost of the project. 2










80















81















82















83

Altit

ude

abov

e 90

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

abov

e 80

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

abov

e 70

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

abov

e 60

00 fe

et A

MSL

Altit

ude

belo

w

5000

feet

AM

SL

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Ev

alua

ted

fact

or

(Wei

ghta

ge

mul

tiplie

r)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

ev

alua

ted

fact

or

1 2 3 4 5

5 Altitude of the Site above mean sea level

A site located at lower altitude will have longer working season, which has significant impact on the cost of the project. 2










84















85















86















87

No

min

ing

activ

ity is

ex

pect

ed in

nea

r fut

ure

Diffe

rent

min

es p

rese

nt b

ut n

o ex

plor

ation

car

ried

out

Area

leas

ed fo

r min

ing

expl

orati

on b

ut n

o ac

tivity

st

arte

d

Min

ing

activ

ities

star

ted

by

leas

es

Wor

k on

min

ing

quer

ies a

re in

pr

ogre

ss a

nd c

utting

/fini

shin

g w

orks

hops

est

ablis

hed

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtan

ce o

f the

Eva

luat

ed fa

ctor

(W

eigh

tage

mul

tiplie

r)

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

eva

luat

ed fa

ctor

1 2 3 4 5

6 Proximity to mining area

Location of the site near to the mining area would attract investors for construction of the project on the basis of captive power generation. 2








88















89















90

35 Hoo Shigar Phase-II Skardu (Raw site) 1 ● 4 3 12

36 Naislo Shigar Phase-II Skardu (Raw site) 2 ● 4 3 12

37 Besil Shigar Skardu (Raw site) 1 ● 4 3 12












91



92

High

Risk

Ar

ea

Med

ium

Hi

gh R

isk

Area

Med

ium

Ri

sk A

rea

Low

Risk

Ar

ea

No

Risk

Ar

ea

1 2 3 4 5

7 Security Due to current war against terror situation, some of the sites may fall within security risk areas. This is an important factor for investors’ viewpoint. 1






05Construction of 3.5 MW Hydro Power Project Hamaran Bilchar Bagrote Gilgit (unapproved)

3.5 ● 4 3 12


07Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project Manthokha Ph-II Skardu (unapproved)

1 ● 5 3 15


93


10Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Riakote Muthat Diamer (unapproved)

1.5 ● 3 3 9



13Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Saltoro (Seth) Ghanche (unapproved)

1.5 ● 5 3 15

14Construction of 02 MW Hydro Power Project Dichal Dashkin Astore (unapproved)

2 ● 3 3 9

15Construction of 02 MW Hydro power Project Yeshleto Astore Stage-1 (unapproved)

2 ● 4 3 12

1604 MW Turbo Generating Sets and allied Civil works for Stage-II Gudai Astore (unapproved)

4 ● 4 3 12

17Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project at Tarishing Astore (unapproved)

1 ● 4 3 12

1802 MW Hydro Power Project at Hisper River Nagar-1, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

2 ● 4 3 12

191.700 MW Hydro Power Project Hassanabad Ph-V Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

1.7 ● 5 3 15

20 0.500 MW Hydro Power Project at 0.5 ● 4 3 12

94

Chalt Nagar-II, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

210.500 MW Hydro Power Project Mayon Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved)

0.5 ● 4 3 12













95



36 Naislo Shigaqr Phase-II Skardu (Raw site) 2 ● 5 3 15












96




97

Issu

es o

f ser

ious

nat

ure

Serio

usne

ss o

f iss

ues i

s fro

m

Med

ium

leve

l thr

eat t

o

Low

leve

l thr

eat t

o ys

yste

ms

No

thre

at to

syst

ems (

Positi

ve

Poin

ts S

core

d

Impo

rtaa

nce

of th

e Ev

alua

ted

Wei

ghta

ge o

f the

eva

luat

ed

1 2 3 4 58 Envirionment/Resettlement/

Social ImpactsDevelopment of hydropower site may threat some exiting eco-systems / natural resources, wildlife or some natural habhitat. Or some storage type schemes may involve resettlement issues. There may be some social concferns from local communities.

1

S # Name of Project Capacit

y (MW)01 20MW Hydro Power Project Hanzel Gilgit 20 ● 4 3 12




98

05

Construction of 3.5 MW Hydro Power Project Hamaran Bilchar Bagrote Gilgit (unapproved) 3.5 ● 4 3 12


07

Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project Manthokha Ph-II Skardu (unapproved) 1 ● 4 3 12



10

Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Riakote Muthat Diamer (unapproved) 1.5 ● 4 3 12



13

Construction of 1.5 MW Hydro Power Project at Saltoro (Seth) Ghanche (unapproved) 1.5 ● 4 3 12

14

Construction of 02 MW Hydro Power Project Dichal Dashkin Astore (unapproved) 2 ● 4 3 12

15

Construction of 02 MW Hydro power Project Yeshleto Astore Stage-1 (unapproved) 2 ● 4 3 12

16

04 MW Turbo Generating Sets and allied Civil works for Stage-II Gudai Astore (unapproved) 4 ● 4 3 12

17

Construction of 01 MW Hydro Power Project at Tarishing Astore (unapproved) 1 ● 4 3 12

18

02 MW Hydro Power Project at Hisper River Nagar-1, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 2 ● 4 3 12

99

19

1.700 MW Hydro Power Project Hassanabad Ph-V Hunza, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 1.7 ● 4 3 12

20

0.500 MW Hydro Power Project at Chalt Nagar-II, Hunza-Nagar (unapproved) 0.5 ● 4 3 12













100




36 Naislo Shigar Phase-II Skardu (Raw site) 2 ● 4 3 12











101





102

hydropower assessment finaldraft 20feb-4

Documents