i. i.population dynamics - history b. b.demographic transition in recent years death rates in many...
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I. Population Dynamics - History
B. Demographic Transition• In recent years death rates in many developing
nations have decreased• Status of the social and economic changes that will
supposedly lead to stable populations is unclear• Some neo-Malthusians pessimistic that transition to
lower birth rates and stable populations will occur• Garrett Hardin - “Lifeboat Ethics”
• Barry Commoner - Anti-Malthusian• Main cause of environmental degradation is
inappropriate use of technology, not simple population growth
• Ecologically sound development more important than population control
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II. Population Dynamics - Theory
A. Background• Understanding human population dynamics
requires understanding population theory• Earth is a closed system (no immigration/emigration)
• Population size is dynamic equilibrium between• Biotic potential
• Per-capita growth rate (r)• r = b - d (per-capita birth rate - death rate)• r > 0 population growing• r < 0 population shrinking• r = 0 ZPG
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II. Population Dynamics - Theory
A. Background• Instantaneous growth rate of a population may
be represented by dN/dt = rN• dN/dt - Change in population size over time• r - Per-capita growth rate• N - Population size
• Two basic growth models• Density-independent growth• Density-dependent growth
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II. Population Dynamics - Theory
B. Density-Independent Growth• Population growth with unlimited resources• In nature, usually occurs rarely and briefly• Limited by maximum per-capita growth rate for
a species (rmax)• rmax inversely related to generation time
• Ex - Higher for mouse than human
• Population growth rate described by• dN/dt = rmaxN
• Exponential growth
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II. Population Dynamics - Theory
B. Density-Independent Growth• Not sustainable indefinitely in the real world
• Assumes/Requires unlimited resources
• Increasing population density limits ability of individuals to acquire resources
• Density affects/limits population growth rate
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II. Population Dynamics - Theory
C. Density-Dependent Growth• Based on idea that a given environment only
can support a limited number of individuals• Carrying capacity (K)
• Population growth described by logistic growth model
• dN/dt = rmaxN (1-N/K)
• Environmental resistance (N/K) increases as N increases
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III. Population Dynamics - Trends
A. Demographics• Global population reached 6 billion in Oct 1999
and 7 billion in Oct 2011• Most population growth currently taking place in
developing nations• Developing nations contain 80% of global population• Percentage of global population growth in developing
nations• 1950 – 85%• Today – 99%
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Roberts 2011
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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UN Population Division
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III. Population Dynamics - Trends
B. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)• TFR = Fecundity• 2.0 = Replacement level fertility• Global TFR
• 1950 – 5.0• 2010 – 2.45 (51% decrease)
• Africa – 4.37 (Niger – 7.19, Somalia – 6.40)• Asia – 2.18 (India – 2.73, China – 1.64)• N America – 2.04 (Canada – 1.65, Mexico – 2.41,
USA – 2.07)• Europe – 1.59 (Bosnia – 1.18, Germany – 1.36)• PRB Map
Source: UN Population Division
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UN Population DivisionRoberts 2011
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III. Population Dynamics - Trends
C. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)• Global IMR
• 1950 – 156 deaths per 1000 births (15.6%)• 2010 – 43 deaths per 1000 births (4.30%)
• 72.4% decrease• Europe – 0.7%• Africa – 7.50%
Source: UN Population Division
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III. Population Dynamics - Trends
D. Birth and Death Rates• 1950
• Birth rate – 37 per 1000 people per year• Death rate – 20 per 1000 people per year
• Growth = 17 per 1000 people per year = 1.7%
• 2010• Birth rate – 19.4 per 1000 people per year• Death rate – 8.3 per 1000 people per year
• Growth = 11.1 per 1000 people per year = 1.11%
• Developed nations – 0.23% (0.07 B-D + 0.16 I)• Developing nations – 1.28% (1.33 B-D – 0.05 E)
Source: UN Population Division
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III. Population Dynamics - Trends
E. Age and Life Expectancy• Median Age
• World – 29.4 years (2011)• Developed nations – 39.7 years
• Europe – 40.2 years• N. America – 36.9 years
• Developing nations – 26.8 years• Africa – 19.7 years
• Life Expectancy• 1950 – 46 years• 2010 – 68.9 years
• Africa – 56.0 years (Swaziland – 48.7 years)• Europe – 76.1 years (Andorra – 83.5 years)Source: UN Population Division
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Roberts 2011
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III. Population Dynamics - Trends
F. Population Projections - UN1. Low Variant (TFR: 2.45 1.55 by 2100)
• 2050 – 8.1 billion, 2100 – 6.2 billion
2. Medium Variant (TFR: 2.45 2.03)• 2050 – 9.3 billion, 2100 – 10.1 billion
3. High Variant (TFR: 2.45 2.51)• 2050 – 10.6 billion, 2100 – 15.8 billion
4. Constant Variant (TFR = 2.45 4.44)• 2050 – 10.9 billion, 2100 – 26.8 billion
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Roberts 2011