i. i.scientific method a. a.process 1. 1.observation careful; include as many parameters as possible...
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I. Scientific Method A. Process
1. Observation• Careful; Include as many parameters as possible• Observations Induction Question Hypothesis
2. Question3. Hypothesis
• Possible cause• Reflect past experience (educated guess)• Multiple (consider alternative explanations)• Testable• Falsifiable
4. Prediction• Hypothesis/Principle Deduction Prediction
5. Experiment• Experimental group, Control group, Replication
6. Results/Interpretation7. Scientific Theory
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I. Scientific Method B. Bias
1. Sampling Bias• Our view of the world is conditioned very strongly by the
observational methods we use• Ex: Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses
• Methods vary considerably, depending on the temporal and spatial scales of interest
• Ex: How is global temperature measured? Sea level?2. Assumptions
• Important to recognize inherent assumptions• Ex: 14C dating of wooden artifacts
3. Paradigms• Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or set of
belief(s) about a particular topic• Ex: Dinosaurs went extinct because of global climate
change precipitated by an asteroid• Paradigms may not be permanent
• Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation (paradigm shift)
• Ex: Heliocentric solar system, continental drift• Paradigms may become so entrenched that people ignore
contradictory evidence or modify evidence to match paradigm
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IPCC 2007
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IPCC 2007
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I. Scientific Method B. Bias
1. Sampling Bias• Our view of the world is conditioned very strongly by the
observational methods we use• Ex: Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses
• Methods vary considerably, depending on the temporal and spatial scales of interest
• Ex: How is global temperature measured? Sea level?2. Assumptions
• Important to recognize inherent assumptions• Ex: 14C dating of wooden artifacts
3. Paradigms• Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or set of
belief(s) about a particular topic• Ex: Dinosaurs went extinct because of global climate
change precipitated by an asteroid• Paradigms may not be permanent
• Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation (paradigm shift)
• Ex: Heliocentric solar system, continental drift• Paradigms may become so entrenched that people ignore
contradictory evidence or modify evidence to match paradigm
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II. Technology – Developments
A. Observation• Satellite-based sensors• Automated monitoring equipment
• Ex: TAO/TRITON array• Novel technology
• Ex: acoustic instruments• Powerful computers• Real-time communication (fiber, internet, satellite)
B. Communication• Global communication technology • Extensive scrutiny (scientific, non-scientific)• Intense media coverage
C. Mitigation/Alternatives• Emissions control (air, water)• Water purification (desalination, reclamation)
D. Energy• Nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, fuel cells,
ocean (tides, waves, currents)• Transition in energy use: Biomass Coal Oil/Natural
gas & Uranium
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World Fuel Production & Energy Use
FUEL 1800 1900 1990
Biomass (6-18 MJ kg-1) 1,000 1,400 1,800
Coal (14-32) 10 1,000 5,000
Oil (42) 0 20 3,000
Uranium (90 million) 0 0 ??
ENERGY 1800 1900 2000
Total 250 800 10,000
Indexed (1900 = 100) 31 100 1,250
McNeill, 2000
Fuel values in millions of metric tons; Energy values in mmt oil equivalent- More energy used in 20th century than all of human history before 1900
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II. Technology – Developments
E. Packaging/Processing• Canning• Bottling• Freezing• Freeze drying
F. Global Commerce1. Developments
• Refrigerated long-haul trucks/containers/train cars• Interstate highway & railroad systems• Advances in food processing/storage• Selective breeding/genetic modification
2. Consequences• Increase in tonnage of food shipped internationally
• 898 vs. 200 million tonnes in 2001 vs. 1961• 2000: Wholesale market in Chicago – Average kilogram of
produce traveled >2400 km from farm to plate (25% increase vs. 1980)
• Typical supermarket• 30,000+ items• 50% produced by 10 multinational companies
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II. Technology – Developments
F. Global commerce3. Environmental Effects
a. Air pollution – Transportation• Ex: Bottled water• Nearly 25% of all bottled water transported
internationallyb. Release of GHGs
• Production (e.g. fertilizer, flatulence), transportationc. Waste production
• Ex: Bottled water• 89 billion liters/yr 1.5 million tons plastic waste (WWF,
2001)• 154 billion liters in 2004 (Earth Policy Institute)• >1 billion water bottles in CA trash/yr (CA Dept of
Conservation, 2003)d. Resource use
• Ex: Bottled water• 2004 – Plastic bottle production used ~9 million barrels
of oil, enough to fuel 600,000 cars for a year (EPI)
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Earth Policy Institute
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II. Technology – Developments
F. Global commerce4. Environmental Effects
e. Agricultural diversity• Conversion to monocultures Loss of diversity
f. Environmental degradation• Ex: Canals/Locks on Mississippi Biodiversity
loss (e.g. aquatic plants, inverts, fishes, birds)• Ex: Dredging/Development of Pantanal (largest
wetland in South America – 140,000 km2 ~IL) Damage to biodiversity hotspot
5. Health Concerns• Ex: 2003 – Green onions from Mexico 600 people in
PA with hepatitis, 3 deaths• Ex: 2006 – Spinach from CA 200+ people in 26
states sick from E. coli, 4+ deaths