I Robot, I Robot, You UnemployedYou Unemployed

Robin Hanson

George Mason University

“This Time Is Different”

• Luddites 1815

• Karl Marx 1847, ‘67

• Anarchists 1880s

• Metropolis 1927

• “Automation” 1960s

• Expert Systems 1980s

• DotCom Bubble 2000

• Deep Learning 2014

“Machines were … the weapon employed by the capitalist to quell the revolt of specialized labor.” “History discloses no tragedy more horrible than the gradual extinction of the English hand-loom weavers”

Economics of Robots

• Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now• If have more of X, do you want Y more

(complement) or less (substitute)?• Machine as Substitute to human labor

– Ricardo 1821, most science fiction– Wages fall to machine cost

• Automation as Complement to human labor– Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus

– Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen

• So are robots a substitute or complement?

Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements

Hum

an A

dvan

tage

Useful Mental Tasks

SubstituteFor Task

HumansDo These

MachinesDo These

Tasks AreComplements

A Rising Tide

Hum

an A

dvan

tage

Useful Mental Tasks

A Rising Tide

Hum

an A

dvan

tage

Useful Mental Tasks

Ways To Make Smart Robots

1. Keep writing better software– AI experts say: in 20yrs gone 5-10% to human– That says: will take 2-4 centuries to full AI– Hardware slowing, if half rate, 4-8 centuries

1. Discover a grand theory of intelligence– Or grand theory of how to learn (= “foom”)– But likely doesn’t exist, as w/ bacteria, cities

1. Port software from where it already exists

Needed To Emulate Brains

1

Computers

(many, parallel)

2

Scan – fix, slice,

2D scan

3

Model each brain cell type

RobotRobot Implications

ImmortalityImmortalityTravelTravel

CopiesCopiesNatureNature

Labor Supply & Demand

Quantity

Price

wage1

Supply of Human WorkersDemand for Labor

wage3

wage2

New Demand for Labor

Supply of RobotsSupply of Robots

Four Ways To Grow

1. More Machines

2. More Humans

3. Better Machines

4. More Robots

Book Draft Topics

Motivation, Method, Biases, Precedents, Factors, Dreamtime, Limits, Emulations, Opacity, Hardware, Security, Time, Space, Reversing, Climate, Cooling, Buildings, Virtuality, Overlays, Fakery, Copying, Darkness, Fragility, Retirement, Death, Wages, Selection, Enough, Competition, Eliteness, Spurs, Power, Institutions, Growth, Finance, Manufacturing,

Careers, Age, Prepare, Train, Cities, Speeds, Transport, Software, Inequality, War, Clans, Nepotism, Firms, Teams, Governance, Law, Innovation, Mating, Signaling, Identity, Ritual, Conversation, Synchronization, Coalitions, Profanity, Divisions, Culture, Stories, Humans, Unhumans, Intelligence, Psychology, Alternatives, Transition, Critics, Evaluation, Policy, Charity, Success

Guestimating Growth

1. AK growth models easily x10-1000+ faster– Now double ~15 yr., 100x => 1.8 mo.

1. Factories now double mass in 1-3 mo.1.3D printers in week?– Self-replicate plans double in 6-12 mo.?

1. History of forager, farmer, industry modes– Doubled 225Myr, 900yr, 15yr => 1-4 weeks

• Guess: ~1 month doubling time