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123ggu2 ol 23u113v eor1i e2u bni 21313m13113q 1 rIi lo 23u113v 3111 2322u321b 1 11011332

e

Page 8: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

I1$i3o2 .2.U bbnu1riu gnil2ix3 c1i niiiBvi1q moul nis rli1o ebu1ing&n 1di2us!q moe

noi11iiBvi1q lo m1doiq rIi e2u32ib I3d1 noi13 nibu13no3 l3hd 13 i 31311T .mslgoiq 'Qi1u32

thi3o2 ni gn13d3 gnivolqmi oi3m lo rIiBq i Tb i1idi2aoq c1J oi einioq bns '3B13omth B ill

.noiiBiBvi1q J1qmo3 ol 2bE1 il3dl 1i1u3

101g v1i1u3 1Bi3o bbnu1riU ni niwboi1nI 10 oJ rn1bW dT .

I

boiiq iol vi1 2lBubivibni f131r1w lii 1bom 2noiiBng gniqqB11vo 3lqmi2 B bi2noD

dr q i IsiqB31o l3ubolq 1snimm dh1I .

gnivi bm3 boiiq rifl 3r11 ni 1w nirni

inmiibi ni (q+I) munoo 2!Bubivibni

xi1 11oiq 'd b33nBnfl 0=1 mi1 113 mioiq liiu IBi3oa bbnu1riu ni 3uboi1ni woM

th boiiq ixn h nI .ii1i 1nrIu3 r!l ol biBq is xBi 1i1o 2b3o1q dT .0 1B1 113

+ I lo 1013131 'd 1B1 BW flOffIfflO3 1i bilE fl + 1 lo 1013131 13

d beB13ni 213ff noilsluqoq

rf1 21 ow idw (y±I)0w0 = (+I)(n+I)0wO io1irb is boiiq 1xn lEfli ni bi311o3 exEi r1T

1o noiiB1n lEilini di1o e1dm3rn dT .b33ubolini i mino1q ii11J32 113i302 rf1 ndw gw 'rfi lEfli X61 lo isliob '(Iov o1 inmii1i ni 2ffIrId lo 2lsIlob ' + I vii 2IJffi 2o1qm3

.gnbFiow 1irfw biEq

1i3r11 33ub1 01 2lBubivibrn 233ubni xBi 1!o1'Eq \1i1u32 1131302 13 01 inm1iup1 fh II

1o u1sv in21q ffT .0w 0 (y —

q) i inmiiii rh fflO3fli lo 2201 r1i 8inuofnz 1sup fIB 'd niv

ill b22u32ib mu1i ,rIl lo 1niBfl3nu r11 bilE ffI03fli lEliqEc) 110 2XBi lo 1oi 311Tv

E noi13E

b13qx d bluow ii fflO3flk mii31i1 lo u1sv in21q 3111 233ub31 rniigoq r1i 32u533118

1o 1n3m33131q21b 3no-1o1-3no ni3ffl 2231 s 31o1313r11 bilE noiiqmu2noo boil3q 121i1 ill 11131 13 3211133 01 moil 2201 3111 lo ,bu1insm 3f11 23311b31 133113 2lfIT .xEi 1i1u32 15f302 3(11 'd fl1VB2 3lBvflq

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Page 9: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

q) (q + I) ai b3ubo11ni i rninoiq 'iiiu3a 1Ei3o rii isth mui rli is Isubivibni r11 01 o1 irli

gsw r11 nf1W I noi tn iifliñ 01 o1 3d1 M '11zilini i o1qm 10 idmun th 11

= 1(n+1) 0M'(+I) 0w 0 ( — q) '(q + I) i (n+I) 14 ai io1 iodsl dl bn&(g+I) 0w i 3151

3lsg5Iggs Iilini 3r11 ei 0T 313dw '(ç+1 )0T( y— q) (q + 1) =i(ç+j) 0M ow 0 (ç —

q) '(q + I)

3lsilqolqqs 3d1 II .31iI31 lo noils13n 1ifl r1l ol 131ns1I Isilini r1l io131di bns xsl !Loi'q

ol oI 3dflo 3ulsv 1niq 3di i noiis13n 5lultñIo noilqrnu&io3 nu1nuo3ib iol 3151

:i noiis1on3g us 10 Insqiiimq 'o1qm3

[(6 +I)\'(\ç+I)] - q) (q + I) = jvq (I)

0T [('ç—) \(y—q)] [(q + + I)] =

= q h3111 .3.i) \(1i213ffi1 Isiiqs3lo I'13L 31u1 n3bIo 3r{t Is ai mono 3dJIi 113r11 iaiiI 3ioM

s i -ii1i Isiiini 3d1 ol iknsiI 3dT .35o1qm3 lo noi1s13n3 'ns 01 o1 on i i3r1I ('f

.In3fn3volqrfli O151Eq

3ioM °o1 s 1Lr3nI oIqfn3 lo noiiirzng r1353 bus q iuo lo ii1si nI

33ub31 irlgim Isubivibni Isril 'ii1idiaoq uLi oi wol3d mubi I .rn1no1q b3bnLJInu urn ni3ubo11ni .inu32 1Ei3o gnisilsvilq 01 noqi ni gnivs -ioisbnnm-non li3fli

ui b32uib i anoi1s13n ao13s noilqrrw2no3 ndrwo3ib iol 3151 3isilqolqqs 3r1T .E flOi133

j3dA bus (QI) ni31bI3I oIs .E noil2 ui b3u3ib i ' burn q lo noilsl3l 3r1T°'

.(8QI) i usrbIz burn I3rnrnu2 wiAnsM

V 1Q.Iwb

Page 10: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

J ) iii 1iiiini fli 01 i1nifl 3d1 n1d 1u ii1i iutu1 ol eo1 r11 q = Ii lsrLl ivworI

1113 01 o1 r111o u1zv 1niq d1 ir11 n .' bn13 q nw1d ni1uib d11o 231bu i ( 0T =

ivwor11I .ti1i Isilini rh ol i1ansii th1o u1sv di ol 1sup 113sx i anoi1sing 5ruflJt

di jsliqs3 lo i3ubolq Isnigism r11 nsrli 1 i iin iriuoib noilqmiJano3 1snoiisini1ni r11

1n1q r11 3ub1 rnrnoiq hu 1sioe bbniñnu ns b noi1uboi1ni 11 bns T b3x o1

0T 1ii5I Isilini dli 01 1nsi1 r111o i1si 3c11 nsdl iom d rnoni iu1u1 b u1iw

lii noi1qmuno3 nw1d noi1u1i1du lo 1si lsnigrnm r11 IsdI i1qmi q = noilibno3 dT

.noilsfrnol2nsli lo 1si 1snimm rI1 01 1sup i 1xn ff I fil noilqmu2no3 bns noi1sn no

r11 niimixsm lo rli ru lsrnilqo i Isflqs3 lo 1v1 ni1ix r1i 1In1sviup3

1snoi1sini1ni rli lo Inisi1&io r1i 01 1no I31dua noii3nul is11w Isi3o2 1snoiIsingi1ni

Jifl irli Is ni1s1qo ai rnono r1i Ii isril i1qrni I rioilsup3 .noiinu1 noi1uboiq

iuJiñ moil noitqmuno31o flifl2 1Ism s rnoil oI on i id1 1in1ni IsIiqs3lo Iv1 rnurnilqo

-I3rbo io Iui xsl rI3irlw in Ini$vI5I 1Om rh nI .noii51fl3g irinu fli ol anoiising

3ub1 noi1qmuno3 iri3Tw3 ol Inrn1vni inoil -usllob s nifiif1 6 < q aus aloi3sI gflitlol2ib

1n5nU3 01 1n3m1vni moil fiirl2 s 'u2 .msiI noi1qrrw2no Islol flt lo u1sv 1n21q r11

bris eob rnsioiq iiw 113i3o2 bbnii1nu ns lo noil3ubo-ulni 3r11 isriw 113sx i noiiqmuno

.11th 01 noilqmueno3lo uIsv 1n1q rI1 U53 Ii < q Ii dw

rI1 3ub51 13131 lii 2ob rnsioiq Qi1u3 Isi3o bbnif1nii ns lo noii3ubollni 3d1 13fI1r1W

aisi Isill iflnd bivoiq Ii (13111w 01 1n1x fIt no oIs 2bnq3b noi1qmuno3 lo u1sv tn1q

i-iwo ibi-li iol 1fli1 oo bvs2 vsr{ iw-13r11o bluow oiIw 31i11 lo noilqmu2no3 1nfn31i11 i-11

lo 1si rliwoi rI1 i ' ni2. . < q brus I —

<"cu 0T <jyq 2iIqmi I noilsup3'1 .0 <y fflO3fl! iodsl 1si 1sis

8 IQIwb22

Page 11: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

,> 1 e i&1i noiiqmuas di d bbu1iq d bluow ioiv&bd iqom rbu '.1nrniith

bluow !Eubivibni 3rIi i&li inuomB r1i ri&Ii 1 ai xJ !1oiq inu3 hi3o 2IEubivibni rbs3 srli

Li xsi ILoisq rIi rmdi L bv v&1 bluow 1Eubivibni mo1i ma iW1f11O

ni ii1iiu rIi 1fi ol I noiiiupIo noiiE1u31i uIv 1rI1q r11 bno'd og raum noiiEuliv

iqom rIuon m 13fL1 nr1V/ .noii r1 r13133 ni iiii iqorn ol iiI3nd nibivoiq mofi

n rrunoiq 'iiiu Izi3o bbruitnu n riv cJ rrii1i niqII rnofl ni rI1 4,ubivibni

E!lVE IEnoiiJ3l ol rnui9I iwoI s nivi fbiw biEios eoI rIi fLiwXuo

ai ivi lEnoilEl ol o! 3d1 1niEgJ$ qom ol nii idi lo ninsIEd di rIuoihIA

di niiia ni bni3 mioiq inmiiii 1oiEbnzm £ xuboi1ni ol id1dw gnibib flu inl3i-ioqrni

ni miioiq bbnü1nu fiB bnt3 bbnu1 E nwid gnibib ioI inEv11 ion i ii ii1nd1o 3li .mBigo1q bbnu1nu ni ibnu rnsioiq bbnu1 ibnu rbum iiI ii b1ioiq m qom

v1nu3, LBi3o njsumvuiq mo niBO 1E1IW dT

ol bns iiii nui2ix ol noiisiIdo Li niingo35I iiupi '1nu3 IEi3O niximEvr!q

noiiingo31 iiiil A og-uo'-a-q r1i ibnu xBi 11o1Bq bisq b1tIE vsil oriw 21d1o

dm ni1bom 'd nivs Iubivibni 1EupbEni1o ui di bs1EnB (8QI) nibbF' noiiniñ '1i1iiu rnii1iI Ini B 8niv&I Ibom OJO boil3q-owi i ni LBlJbiVibni 3Vi1Bif151q5t

Eiqom 1sihBq iol I > A illiw (3)u A + (13)u ximixBm ol fluo' 1irLw nii lud (3)u + (13)u

.Eiqom 1qrno3 iol 0 A bnB

bbniiInu as ni aii1nd '1iiu IEi3o2o bv,I IEmimqo 3d1 viib (8Q1) niiab1I' 3vsrl iwidio bluow oriw 2orIi 01 o1 1i 1niii qo'm 01 2niEg odi ni3nBIEd 'd ffIie

.!!Bmiiqo bvE

as rli th xEi 1i as as i rniioiq bthnilI dm ni 1vI nivs ioisbnsm rIiWF .msigo1q bbnu1 r1i ni -rdid nv is aiiInd inmiiii minoiq o uo

IQ.Iwb

Page 12: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

io1H .u1Bv 1sup lo db !Enoii&i IBnoilibbE lo noi1i3 iki1qx vIovni no!1EgiIdo di lo

owJ binoo o 1u1u i i noh iivhq bnEni1 1cJb rku lo eiTI ii1bw r1i nixt1nE

iibo bnE iibi innu3 o irnoiq 1ii1qx di niJigoids (1) :noiE13 idb o vi&n1

'q oi o1qm iuiu1 bnE inrun niiiupi () bni ;x1 1Ioi'i3q biBq 'I2uoiv1q v&L ofiw

no miEk nE niuii luodhiw noi1Ei1do iflnd nui2ix3 f1i nini1 ot ox13i ILo113q

.xE1 r!i iol gn&bx ni nd di bn 1ii5I nnu no noisiviiq1o nbiud r1i 3E1q iil rli bbom OJO d1 nI

noii&isvhq b3nEnfl db rIi ieE1no3 nI .2'o1qm in5nu no nbiud r1t 2oEIq bno3

.io1 lodEl di ru on m oriw orli no nbiud 3rlflo fbum 3BLq

noi b 2frni rli ni nm imo1q noinq nii2ix niso1d13 d nisi1Bvnq ni 1uflJ1 1I 10 noiiqmuno3 di niisi Iidw 0T d 21ib1 gniiix3 lo noiiqmuno r1i gnioubi I

11 noi1qmuno 10 uIEv 1rI31q iu bluow ir1i 113d1 rnb ai i ,

I) 0T (ç—q) d uii lo noiiqmuno3 fli 3uf33d is1Iw l3woI b1uo \EW irIi ni gniiivi1q ,ivwoH < q

i iii r11 o 1E1Iob 10 tiIi1u thni1Em di iith ni'1qmi Lqi&I LIEI bluow 21ii5I

n3T1U3 nixsi d noiiiLdo ffind nruu3 niDnBniI 10 viism11i rIT .iiig 'IIsiindu

niix u3d x'1n oi flu3iIIib iom 21 gn&kx ni 2ffind 'n nivi uodflw o1qrn irIio n!3ub31 d niv -IotEbnBm bnt3 xi r1i1o noiflnidmo3 r1i o bnoqi ifl8im 2'oIqm

iduin n inmmvo rIi ivworI e1flm 13i131nq E 2A .ob liflT!U3 rli iEcli f1iVB2

oi 2oIqm nrw no xsi £1ix mu 2oqmi 10 iiii niix 01 22ifno1q ati lo us 1so1dE

21 is niinuo32ib 232si3ni noiiqmu2no3 Isunns 2rIi1o 3u15v 1n3231q dT .('ç—) \ 0T(ç—q)

01 IQ.twb

Page 13: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

àInoi1n 3luiiñ 111310 i1bw ot1 ii 1i3i1qx lEnodibb13 lo noiuiidu th io1ir11 i noiiiisviiq b rmol irmv6i dT

nbiud id io1ir1i noiin -iuhib cbi3 .eimo1q 'riiu 1th3o di iol db lEnothln

1rimiii if1ifl th riii bn13I13d d um i1 id3b 1&ioii&i 1EnoiibbE r111o ud db oni .rnsigolq og-uo--'sq 3d1 iol gniv Iii gniflfliidu mofi flui 1i mo3r1i

r1i iii nii!x3 lo 2ffind 3rIi ubi Ion ob 'Ii1u3 1Ei3o b noiIiitEvhq b3n&1ib

rIi bilE enig moni inmiii iuiü1 di lo buiinm viIbi HI rio ebnqb t11 mll3w

.nmiiupi ivi idb iuIth

th ni3ubi ol In1Eviup ei oiq rioiisiIviiq r1r ,

I noib b bbom OJO dt nI

rli1I T lo db 1&loiiEn niui briE flT 'd oIqm31o noiXiin Iflirini r1I no xiI 11o1Eq

irh ,noiI3ub1 xs r1i lo Inuoml3 rIi 'd nivsa aE5I3ni oIqm lo noiUrin lEilini

ivi idb rIT ' .icJb IEnoii&1 11$noilibbs r1i d1odE ol f1guon 1uL ei nivE IEInm5I3ni

810T q i iuJu1 dr ni boiiq rbi niiub

ol 1dieoq d tdim ti (o3ixM 2noitsgildo tibnd 11Em riliw i1tnuo3 mo nI lo i2'(1.snE r1T .noiiitvhq lo oiq r1t Iii 2noiIEildo nitix r1i riEnfl ol x13i in5rIu u

b3nI$nfl idb vn3r1w 1dE1ib i noilsxitEvilq b3onEnil xsl ff3u i1t i1qmi noit3 ir1I .noitibnoo IE1n 1om l3brlu 1dE1ib d o1E bluo3 bns i noiiEitEVflq

nivi t13v q '(lotthnBm 3rD ni 0T vi 03 b3liup3l 3Th o1qm lEitini 3rD dguor1t1A 3rD lo iTI 3ffl0311i dt ot enoqi iii nivii l3rbo (E313ni io) ubi m r1i bnui1

aelEubivibni rI3E3lo noiXudiitib 3rnui3lil rh tiotib e3xEl 3rno3ni lEiiqE3lI .noitEsirEvnq

no i3113 l3blo taifi £ 3vEcl 11kw ta3113 moni 3r1t d b33ubni f1iVE flu 3W1Efl3 13 noitqmuno noiiibno3 3r13 133113 ion bluow '1ii3i1qx3 3n1Jo3313 otni 2id3 gniAET .5113113w 3rnui3lil Iiiubivibni

1o 3u113v in331q 3rD aiii moiq tiiu 113i3o2 b3bnulriu fiJi niiiEvflq rl3iflw l3bnu r1t lo ,buiinsrn 3(13133113 bluow lud noitqmuno3

I13ni1Ern 3(13 nErD 1 i tsrli 33131 iiini in 13 \E 'sm tn3mrnvo ,di rlguorliIA8'

nIl 233sIqib 'dsi3di bns) flIVE2 3iEvnq 3(13 thodE id3b lEnoliEn tErli 33131 3(13 1Euiqs3 10 t3ubolq I .lJiuiqE3 lo i3ubolq lEniguim 3(11 rnuii 12o1 3(11 313(11 3i1qrni (In3mte3vni 1o IfIfiofflIl lEup3

I I IQlwb

Page 14: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

r1I ibnu nivs bns moni o nupa thTto boiiq iuoI iiit r1i work I IdsT

mia bbnu1nu dli rliiW .nslq bbnii1 bsiisvnq viisnii1s di bns nslq bthniflnu gnuiix

1o diwoig b isi rli is E1f11 bns bonq d3s Lii -rrIio cbs ol !sup is 2ffind bns xsi rIi as msa ,rIi noitqmIees 'd ai nivsa ,miaa bbwuI bsiisviiq rh rhiW .('ç) esw iB8is

insii vii or 3unuino3 iii5I .axsi IIoi'sq iii bisq vsrI aiw-irIio bluow oIqm

.nivsa isvi1q iidi mofi 1qi3nhq bris fflO3fl1 th vii nrIi bns 'Ino O=i is aiflnd bbnth

0Tq 'd boiiq fIs ni mo3ni Isi e3ubi idb infnrnvog di lo 3niaxx 3di noiiibbs nI

bns eiiii 1o aiqi1 bns a's1iuo di nwid 33n1TIib on ai irIi O=i is irIi io4

.nslq b,bruñ b33nsnil-idb viisrrii1s c1i ibnu bris nslq b3bniñnu niiaix3 rLi ibnu oIqm

di ol noaiisqmo ni 0T (' —

q) b inmvoiqmi ns (q+ I) 0T vii a5Iii51 di ,

I = r IA

1o iao3 r1i isd oals iaiim a 'oIqm bns a5Iii31 1o noilsnidmo3 moa itcH .nia'a bbnu1ruj

0Ty —

io1irIi ai 1=1 is noiiqmuano3 no noiisiisvi-iq lo iTI i3n rIT 0Tq ivia idb

rIi, 0Tq— is insiano3 anism5l ivia idb lo iI1 viisg3n di Iidw isrli aworla I fdsT

bo 1vI rIIWOi rIi 01 noiiioqolq ni a sini nslq bbrnJI s ol niftida moiI nis a1ii5I

ol 3vi1son rnoiI affitla 'IIsu1nv3 noilssiisviiqbo 1&il dT ( y+I) ('ç—q) asw 1sis uIsv binuo3aib di Ii noiiqmuano3 lo 3ulsv inaiq fft aaisi miaa fL1 gnjxjisvj-cq .viiiaoq

uIsv ina1q rLt ab33x [i + I) (y+ I )0T(—q) ] noiiqmuano3 inniiii basini di lo

:ai nixiisviiq moib nis 3uIsv inaiq dT [ (6+ I) 0T q 3ivi3a idb rIi lo

lo in dI bns Isiiqso lo i3ubolq Isni8ism cIi nwid noiis1i rIi ol floiXa ixon rEi ni mui-i .idb inmrnvog bns aiii1u3a isviiq no abbi' xsi

I IQ.Iwba2

Page 15: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

I 1dT

flOit9fI3 fliqq1h'FO to rI9m1I brn tqbM

rrt61oi vihu3 LEi3o mgi3ii1q bnE

bbnil1nU + ('ç+I)0T + (+I) 0T + + (i1nd) 5tii5i

('ç+ I )T —

('ç+ I )0T —

('ç+ I )0T — —

(x) oIqm3

0 0 0 0

(q+I)(+I)0T + (q÷I)(ç+!)0T + (q+I) 0T + 0T + 25Xii5I ('+ I )0T

— ('+ I )0T

— (ç+ I) 0T

— 0T

— * *o1qmJ

0Tq —

0Tq —

0Tq —

0 i'ri2 idU

0T[q—(ç—q)'+ I)] 0T[q—(ç—q)('ç+!)] 0Tç — 0

IJ$qi3nnq rLi vii nth bim 0 = I Is aIi1nd Vi31 iiIx ns1q b3bnill siIsviiq rIi 1bnU* .0 <1 us ioI 2gnivs iidI no nims bns

.Inuorns adI vs oIqm nsIq bbniJI siIsviiq Hi ibriU * *

El 1Qlwb

Page 16: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

(+I)T q — '(+1) '('+I)0T('—q) = ovq ()

lin3li3viup3 io

6\q —

('—)\(y—q) ov ()

irL1i 1no noiIqmuno1o 9u113v 1n9a-iq 9rli iii rioiiiivhq bnl3 0 <vq ur1T

bthnuTlnu 9cIi lii rrIui5l i3i1qmi 9th b933x9 thiiq3 no mui 9th) 'ç < q :i9rn 31E anoiiibno3

baB (bv3! niximixsm 91s113w 3rti wol9d i 'monoo 3rD lo 'Jinni hiqE3 3rD) < q (mE1go1q

noi1qmuno3 lo 3u!Ev 1n31q fli aii noi1iiEvi1q ob rIW .(niwoig i mono 3rD) 0 <'c

ot niui ioil3mni n13 sr! mia b3bnlñnu HE 4iiI ¶b3i1ii1a ii noi1ibno3 ,isD 1113 n3dw '1no

briE in3i3flI3ni 'c11B3imsnb i 'ffl0rIO33 3r11 y � q II .'f < q Ii 1no noii1313n3 rbi ni 33'(o1qm3

3rD q Ii n3v1 .±)o12 1s13qs3 li3iiini 3rD ni3ub31 'd 1in3n&rrI3q baiE1 3d nh33 noiiqmuno3

'1no 331ii31 01 l3IenJnt IEiiini 3rD b3x3 i1i 3u11w iniq i v&1 [(y-i- I) 0T('ç—q)] anis Iiunns

3rD 2b333x3 rtoiiqmuano3 5uflU1 bw3 iriiq n33w13d noitsnnolerisii 10 31131 IEni1Jim 3(1111

di lo rliofl .( < q) afloiis13n 1n31311ib ni noiiqmLno3 n33w13d noiiu1iidu lo 31131 li$nigIEm

.3113113w 33ub31 01 ffl131O1 b3bnhilnu riz lo noibuboilrii 3rD iol 2noilibno3 333fl 3(11 o1J$ 9Th

3iqom on m 3I3c1i1i n3v3) 3m113w iE1 mioiq b3bnlñrlu HE bi1iie ion 3113 3r1i1I

.ni2s3133b 3m113w 31o1313rD i rnioiq iiviiq b3brIlJ1 riliw ii 3n13131q31 briE (1EubivibrIi

b3a1ini moii ni rD 3113m ol b3liup5I won i (0 <'c)noilibno3 IsnoilibbE 3rIT

i r1Jwoi 1o 31131 3vi1ioq A .id3b lEnoiiEn I13noilibbs 3f11 lo 1o 9th b333x3 3mo3ni 1fl3ffl31i131

11 IQIwb

Page 17: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

mono 3f11 lo si r11 fIifW wOi iiii ol nina IELJnflE fLi 3uJ33d ix1no idi ru iruthoqmi

rIi !wolg ton bib 'rnono r1ill .inEino3 idb IJ$noiil3rl b13ni th1o io3 fi1 1irLw

r1i '1i3Ex 0Tq i 0 = diiw jbidw 0T('—q) 113 in11rio3 niiimi b!uow 51i151 rli ol nig lEunnE

.ivi idb1o iao3 rli a rni niwoi i \(ffl003 rIi1i 'Irio 5113113w 3ifflOfIO33 2321131 1duJ332 li3i302 ghq

tIE lo 2201 gniail r11 biov'E rntioiq b3bnul i ol fiirl2 3r11 ob morio griiwo1 ni '1no 32u1333d

iulii2du2 1u 0=i 113 noii13silEvilq 1T .3liflhit 3r11 lii migoiq b3bniñnu 3gm1 1ni2J3313ni

s ni 1ud nii 3u113v 1n3231q i3ri oct rlliw iii1idBi1 ii1u3 113i3o2 ni12ix3 3r11 iol ld3b IBnothsn

113i3o2 1n3131113ni im1 10 2noili2oqmi 3iillmoiIJll 3r11 1riviq noiii3i1Evhq mono niwo1g

.3luflhI 3r11 lii muslgolq ii1u332

s 31o1513f11 briE b3flailE2 3d 01 bAi1 3113 i1i1sup3rii ir1i 1113 mono 3112111351 ns 1o1

fLi 2322u321b noi13 lx3n 3rlT .5113113w 3imono aiin ol 13Ai1 i msioiq b3bnul 01 fIirl2

lo nii113vi1q bn13nfl id3b i moil nui 3uLsv 1n3siq b3ilqmi r1i bilE 6 briE q noilEulEv3

.21113n3d ln3m3libl 1i1u3 1131302 ..U nu12ix3 3(11

fliED 2*1 b31smu12 3(11 briE u1sV 1,rnisq .

231i2i1d13123 21f1T .

6 bno q y 21313rn13mq 1 331(11 3(1110 23U113V 3(11 2322u32ib floi1332 2ifIT

mofi nulg 1n 3fIllo tsrni123 nE ala3ggu2 bnE [0 <' <6 bris 6 <1] 23111113up3n1 'sA ,rli

33fl12 21B3 3(11 ril 231s1 b3linU 3(11 01 13151 23111EV 1f33i13fflUf1 311T .1i1u332 1131302 niXi1EVi1q

L3vi1E1i1Eup 3d 01 '13Ai1flu 21 23rlin1J03 lErlI2ubn! 3lulsm l3rIlo ru 33n3i13qx3 3(11 lud 0Q I

.1n31311ib

I Q.fwb

Page 18: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

in31q 1o ts31 Iunn13 1VE n ii wi rno3ni uI bni 1E51 E1ggA

niiI gnibul3ni noitn3qrno iod1 !f3loiIo 91Uffl bsoid A .4'Q1 bnB OQ1 nwid

no 1no biv3I i xi1 Itoiq ni fiB inuiq O.E 113 1biqzi iom i 1wrno wi 4ilnd

Ion bluow OO.O= y riiU .O.O = u wollol i&f I 2noiisIu3Ii 3r11 i1E1E bn13 agw 'nom

nis boi1q-3no r1I ubi bluow lo u1sv ir1id fT .(O < <q ) QiL13upni 'A i11 iiIs

rliwoig 10 1i th i'ini bluow iud (y — q 3ub1 bluow .i) rnI bbniñ ol gni11id mofi

'.noi1ssiIEvnq inoil rng rIIIo uI13v 1niq flI i13ni 31o11r!i bluow bnf$ ni13 rII1o

11noq-io3 Irn3nl3nflnon r1i ni 1131iq133 ol niuIi lii xE1iq rli OQ I ni ais d1 gniiuU

lo biirI1-no luodE liI xs1 IEooI bnis is IsibI riguorillA °iniiq EQ b gJ31'113 &1 1o1332

no xis1 l3woI s id1i 2lsubivibrii b ffi3r1d rh ol U133E ob IrIiq E.Q Ikil 3r11 jnu11 2irIi

13 flsrII aiIqrni 2irli Ibom DJO Iqmi2 r11 nI .nibnq2 Infrffn3vo 3i1i3q2 213 10 mo3ni 1f1Io

iuoiItiw 1+ 1 rni1 113 3ffl3j 01 ernI1ob EQO.I = q+I 2bbIs I niI 1i b1vni bns b3vs2 mllob

1+1 rnh1 113 eoIqm3 briE 21i1 nwid bbivib 21 33fl1 llilx3 1I1 won ni'Iqmi

no rriu1i x.B151q 131V13 n1I briE 'ç IErnii1 ol giw lo diwoi lo 31131 313V13 3n11 ni2U

moil boh3q 3d1 nuiuU .noiivi J : hni A2i1 id! In3rniwlbE on A13m q 3113mi1 ol lEnqEa

bisbnsie i niliw '11si1nE12du2 b3imv sw 3I13g31gE lo 3nEfI3 lo 31131 Lsunrm 3n11 4QQ I ol OM?!

f1I ol ff111131 3nIIlo '1fIi131133fIu 3i111o iunn Iniv3131 iom A £ 1nl3q V.1o noiisiv3b

— (ç—)\(ç—q) = DV 21 noiiEsilEvnqIo 3U113V 1n3231q 3f11 E fIOiIEUp3 nnoil 111 I1E335I

.0 <ç—)\(ç—q) = b\OVb &fJ gni1qmi \q 2132s briE 3fflO3fIi IsflqE3 no 23X131 1113 31o13d 2ffioiq 23nidmo3 noiisIu3IE3 2idT°

3r11 2uIq (xEi 'ti3qoiq 113301 briE 311312 briE 23X131 3ffIO3fIi 311310Cf103 311312 briE 1s13b&1 gnibul3ni) afirl (E8Q I) xuB3liM-aA3iU briE 13d1 ni31ab11 iii bdiioab noiIB1u3I133 3nIT .biEq 123131n1 13n

.(QQI) 3qqii ni IEb 01 qu 1n1uoid nd IQ.Iwb

Page 19: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

ei r1iwoi fflo3fl1 fliBt13flJJ d buboiini i ir1i rrrnioiq bbnt.i1nu rii ni nEqi3irmq IBubivibni

.m 1ni B fiBril mi lo boiiq ino! ivo gw BiB '10 r1iwoi fII hi noilBnBv fh

lo dwoi ii 'nwi B rkirlw io'1 ii taiI di) VQ I bnI3 O I nwi3d boiiq di gnnuU

'lo wol i cnoil bi1Bv 1ii ni iirii gniAool biBw'lo'I ili !(biB!u31B3 d bluo3

nv wor1 bhiow giw Ii iBgig1o -ioirI ignoI A .tniq O.L'1o rLid s o rn31q .I olni 1131ib b1BI2nB1i i diwoig iw 1i Ji1idEhBv ifIT .'iIidBiiBv iom

inBtano3 B rliiw eiaBd o-uo'-ai-q z no b3nBnu1 i rniioiq hhi ti1nd inmiiii niBflon1J

2irI lo iiIBi1om r1i ni briE in xzi 3r11 ni gnErb iuiu'1 luodE inisi-ionU .fl3i xi I1o1Eq

.mBlgolq bthnuulnu li ni iin3d '10 in!EtInu 3r11 o irthu1 bbB bluow horlo3 'otqm

1n3Isvwp iniBi'13 r1T .mi1 iwo IIBi1n due iiBV oaIB IBI!qB3 no mui IB1 3rIT

'IVB IBUbLVIbfIi dli nwid rni xBi fIJ f1uo1sh bi&1 i Aaii irI won no 2bnqb bbi'

i niuii 1s31 xBi1q b3qx n1i id! q 1iiw I ui irfi ibino oT .iIduq 1bEo1d 3r11 bnE

n lEfli rnuii in1BviLJp iniBi13 rli iol *q bnE Vi35I IVB lEnD nIiJJII XEJ 10 13th 3rD id!

XEI lo 1311 B 3V13331 I 3fflil lB I3VE 3rD lEnD i1qmi 2idT . bns I noil3 lo 2iIBfIB 311 ni b32u

3mui lB b313311o3 ai M1 — q gniniBm3l 3rD IBdI briE 233ii131 3113 3n!J n3nlw I + 3mii 113 M110 mifli

hi 3n1EfI3 ol b1331 331u0 2irIl mofi 3UfI3V'31 ln3ffIfn3vog rn anoilEflEYlI .la3rnmvo 3h d I + I

nibni3q2 lni3mrri3vo3 ni nsrb IIsm 10 't3nEV B 01 io oIqfn3 no 23XE1 3rnooni LEnoi3q

nm 3n11 lsnIi oe n{uon3 b3eliflib 3d Effl Aii OnIl 3J0rIw B E noiiEJuqBq 3± 1331?B lEnD amoigoiq

3ilduq Aii1o noilBuIBv3 3lErlqoiqqz 3r11'1o nioiu3ib B 101 (OVI) bnLI bnis woriA 1fl3n3d1o 3UIEV 3rD lsrli i qol3v3b '3nIl lEnD 3Iqi3nnq IEln3ffIbfIU1 3nIT .looiq 3iulibn3qx3

fIB 21 3uLBv b3133qx3 3(11 lsrD lud IBubivibni 3rD 'd mod i Aii 3mb Ii b33ub31 3d bluofl2 21B3d ln3mn13vo 3n11 l1l 21203 briE 21i13n3d 3rD lo ilsq 3rD 10? 1113113 V1up3 '1niEi133 3lEflqolqqE

b3iBl3llo3nu briE 11Em2 13vi1B131 51E 2i3(Eqxsl lIE ol bE3iq2 n3ffw !21113n3d briE 212o3 320(11 33n1i2

.iE3d 213'BqXsl 3(11 113(11 aA2ii 13(110 rhiw

VI 1QIwb

Page 20: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

in1viup inuf3i1 1dEJiua 13 21 i — q o flJocJE b1Bup 2inrnrnvo 1o1 bns J13J2 kib1 oi 2noiJ13loqlo3 d bif3q x13T

1rI3 iq b eoxEi 1BnowIq iobd mu1i n Iii i niv1 niuii xiq 1E1o r1flo in31q

1irnoeiq moib 1qrnx d bhiow niv 1o1Ebn13m di i&{i noi1qmuJ3 di nO .(QQ I qqi2)

rL1 1nuoA 1nmiiJ5I lEubivibnI bru$ riuom noinq vhq ni i i ) xi 3fflO3rii

irI31q Q. E rli bo fflU2 1ob31r1i i Iiiq& IBnoiiibbE no niuJi inIEv1up in1th3 bi1qmi

mubi n3iq 3r11bo r11Eviup nith di briE 1nrnmvog dJ 'd b3vio1 rnuii bb3qx3

2urli i nivi '(IoEbnEm rli no mnubi n1Bviup 'iriith 3r{T .21V t&rbivibrti oJ 2U133E

213V lEffi rriubi lEtol fh1o noirioq r1i o ir1IEviIJp 1nifth3 r11 21 5IfIw + QEO.O =

.3V1351

1nu32 11313o2 gnisilEvnq moil ni uLBv in21q rIi iol E noitiup b noisviib r1T

ti3rIr 2iIqmi

= ov (Is)

1i3o2 bbniñnu r1t ni mubi 3n113viup 'iniEi1 rli o iIi IoiEI3fr1un fli ru *y rIi isrli oM

rio rI1woi mono r1ibo t33fl oi 2111 ioiinirnonb di ni yb uIsv dT .mtuioiq 'thu 'iniEi13 £ 01 i31du2 rruubu io 31131 ion 2i 31o1313r11 briE fflE1O1 3rIiIo 3X12 iuflib 3ff1

.ln3rnXau IbE 33n3113viup3

3izloqlo3 11313b3E1 isril 3ion buiirusm 1nsv3131 di lo noiis3ibni rIuoi 'iv s isth bns 2iqiu in3rrIrn3vog 1513b&1 Isiol lo iniq a3i luods 1no is 23UfIOV51 xEi 3mo3ni

xEi Ls3oI bns 311312 Is13b31 bo 1n3313q n31 rLI3rli is xBi 3rno3ni Isiiqso Is3oI bns 3ii2 1s13b31

81 IQ.Iwb

Page 21: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

1o u13cJ b3ub1 d bluod2 uIzv nBm iniq r1i rbum won u3L3 on au!

bubi d bluor{a (Io 3uhiv nim 1niq ô. rIo d3um won io bIi 1siiq niEi3nu 3fb

hp J bubi iw nliod 1! .m1noiq bbniiInu th ni niui iiiIqmi ninth33nu nLi lo au&d

d bluow aiva n1i o niig nli aud I13fli 11Eu13i bluow nig iJIfiv naiq dli anuom

th ni *q 1o u1iw iwo1 n{i) iwot d bluow idth 1Enoiiibbf di o iao3 nIi Iin1w bns±nu

naiq rli gnittuIEv ni bbiano3 d Iliw aa rnix owT .(! noiisup lo rrn bno3a

moil nin 1351ib n11 nuiE1u3h3 flu IniEJ13nu Io Ioi dr aioni iaifl n1T .nisg uIsv

ivwoH II .q> *q bni 'c — q = — *q Ii niig nLi lo tnms1aibnu ni3 oi gnibrI noisxisviiq

ainli (* — *q —

q) niui bbnu1nu 3n11 1o Aaii li ab3x nmiavni 1sininfl di 1o Aaii nli

iaoqqo nh flu an1 1ot313fIi noiIu31s bnoa n!T .floiiEiJ3vi1q moil nig nIi h3ia13vo 11kw

ni iud (*ç = y) msoiq b3brnñfiu rli no mubi 3db flu th3mrau[b13 Ath on nb1im 'd noib3lib

3d n ( 4'i ) inI3miavni Iii no bI3i 1sviiq 3niio n3liviup3 '1nu13r133 3db &li gnimuaaB

oth 4aQQ1 bnl3 OÔQ! nwH .abnod 1n3rnn1wo dm31 muib3mn no b13i 1ii rb 'd b31snnixo1qqi

nisnn 3f11 33ni 1f3mixoiqqs b3gi3vE (si) abnod in3mnm3vo us 01 no b13i 1ii

= — v ) - QO.0 = *q1o 3uIEv b3ilqmi 3f11 0.0 aisw i to 3u1iv

1n3313q 0. E 1i 3ail 233i1q 113r11 amuaai bni3 QQ I Lilnu 231s1 noiisflni 113u13s 3r11 232U ain1T bni QI nw1d

1o in abnod 1n3mfrI3vo no b1,i' 3db i1i muaa bluow noiit31u31s 3v11&n311s nA to Jn IJsiiqs3 3iEioqIo3 3iBvflq no b13i' 3d1 1o ln3IEviup3 iniEii 3mb ew a3xzl 3fflO3 lEnoai3q

'(lEniblo ol mu1i 3rD no (0.0 = r) 1in x1 1fniu3m rfl3q 0 nimueaA .a3xsi LEnoal3q Isnimon no a3x511o fliv31 3(11 bnis anisg Isliq& no xi11o 11rn313b 3db 1fl3i ol) anivEa

13n s ol 3as31)3b bluow a3xoi 3tsloqio3 l3fth rnui3l 1n3313q 3(11 (anisg Isnimnon bns ta3i3lni ol 0Q1 molt abnod 1n3mrn3vo no mul3i 1si gnibnoqano3 3nlT .140.0 = M1 ( T—1) lo rriui3i

gnieU .0 10.0 = i asw a1n3m'sq 1a3131n11 Isnimon 3db no xsl Isnoai3q 1n33i3q O sb 13n lQQ1 Q0.0 = [ i — i ('—I)}

— E(O.0 = **q 23mo33d mui3l 3isvilq b3laulbs Aaii 3mb a3iuII 3a3fb

.aiasd xsi3lq 3(11 no b31E1u1s i.i1sv 3rD 01 m1imi (I3V

I Q.Iwb

Page 22: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

b iii nqoiqq dJ ninflb oJ r13Bo1qqE iniThb '11Eutqno owi m

bAniL 3W 2noiiB13ng 3db i&Ii wiv db rhiw nid iaiiI 3rlT .() nuinuo32ib lEnoiJEl3n3gl3Jni

3db 3ffl1$2 3db 1 2noiJi13n nwid ffiuo32ib lo tii 3rthlqoiqql3 3db i1r oe m2iuiJIE firnI d in Lsi li i 31z1 inuoib lnEv3!31 3db i&Li iIqmi 2idT .noii13n3g nirbiw lnuo32iblo 31131

i (— I) = eiIqmi 2irli b31oni 1th 1o noi13bino3 II 2lsubivibni 113th bf3i'

3lohd lud 23XfJ l131oq1o3 13i113 rnuti 3d1 2i i bru$ Thi x131 I13ubivibni Il3nigl13rn f{J i ' 31311w

aidb O.O = i dliw bn13 .0 = 1o 3l&ni1 3vi11r1ano3 '13vil!31 i dbiW .xEi I13ubivibrli

3lom i 213 bbi i thnod 1n3mrri3vo no rnuJi in fii 3db 11 .4$0.0 = i1qmi rL3solqql3

= WII2U . <q J&ft m13 2111 32J 1HJi3 cr1 .010.0 = = b312ujb13 1211 lthiqoiqqs

10 31131 r11 n&11 31 i 1ri inuoaib 3113iiqolqq13 3db 11i 31o13i3r11 briE '> i3rL1 3i1qmi i ob E briE

, I 2noiiiwp3 ni 23111Ev 1n3231q 3111 32E3 2irIl nI .rnE1o1q Qi1U332 !13i302 3rblo iliwoig

woig (-- I) 0T(* —

*q) migoiq iiu33 liri3oa b3bruñrw ru 10 3m03f11 lo 2201 3db ;121x3 Jon

3111113111 urk i Ii b3nfl3b Jon 2i 3111Ev 1n32iq 3r11 rlguoilllz In .io13r1 lnuo32ib 3111 nsth iIeI

3(11 lo 3111Ev 3db 2b333x3 migoiq Qiiu 1131302 b3bnuInu fIB gni3ubolini lo 2201 b3Inuoib

ld3b i mofi nirg b3Jrwo32ib 3rD Im1imi lo l3dmJin 3iinuI B nuriliw 1312ns11 lEilini

zis lo l3dmun iirifl £ nidbiw 12o3 3111 2b333x3 rnirigoiq b3bnul 13 01 nOIJi2nElI b33r113n11

IsnoiIEl3n3gt3lni iol 31131 I3Amm s lo 3211 3(11 2133131 gnmnfl3b ol d3EolqqE bno332 3flT

brrs 23v110m 123up3d 3vilEl3qo d b3AniI ion m 2noih1ng 3db 113111 abnuoi 3(11 no grHrnIJo32tb

Iuq 3d 01 23111Ev 3vi113131 3111 3nirrn3l3b Jon bLuofI2 noiJEl3n3g ln5nu3 3db lo 233n313131q 3db 113(11

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lnEl2no3 31d13mq32 3Vil!bb13 111310 noi1qmUaB 110111(1103 3(1 .noil3ruJb 'Ji1i1u 3(11 bo 31111311112

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Page 23: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

6iq iq Io 113fI1 10 S1 rIi i fI — 3 (n —

'ç) = i&li ai1qmi noiriui 'iLiJu \ii3iEb

.'ii1i1u Iinimm1o 'iiiaEb ru1odE sf11 i 3 bns mo3ni

= ri - rii1qrni jIO.O =n w ii diwo rioiiIuqoq th QQI bw3 OML nwiH

d ol nAsi 'IIirin m noiinu1 iIirn !IfIigiirrr 3rUlo i3iEb d1o u1iw 1diauE1q .io.o

bnuo3ib iirii1 kid wi1ioq i iIqrni EdI noiiibrlo3 3f11 q > 3> > 0 n3rIl ni'qmi S = 3

£ o msigoiq iiu Iboa bbrniIriu n moil ñif1 b3n&Ifl db £ mouI nig 3rlflo u1sv

13 oi gniflir{2 mofi nig 3rIi &!i 1o13irli bnl3 > '!qmi V.1 > 310 3u113V .mElgolq bbntfl

£ mouI nil3g u113v iniq th fl131 2irli nI .1in inuo3ib r1i n&li I131 wo1g mioiq bbnhIT1

.bbn31x3 i nosiiorl mi li lirnil inodliw aiini migoiq bbnu1 £ o fiir{ b33n&Ifl idb

i mo oI n i io1i!1 bnE àO.O = *q <6 Iqmi bluow < 3 diH '1dieuEIqmi ns '1nO

.mIa' bbnu1 o fiir1 b33n13nil db r1i bn13 (6 bns *y *q) 21irni6q ! id r1i nwid 1101113151 3th atjibni 1 noilsup3

10 1101 11q11ni li3)r1iqm3 dT .

0T b iisllob iq noii13sitl3vhq b3nEnfl ld3b lo nuJ3 u1sv 1fl2s1q

d bluow 21A1ow bru3 sii1sr 1nsriu rkiirlw ol ffind d1 lo u1Ev IEiiBui3s 1nsiq 3rh i 0T

iu1u1 nibnoqsrIo3 di 1o u1sv 1n2siq 1i 2Uniffl bunu1no3 mioiq bbnu1nu h Ii bI1i1n

1n li3ilqmi nnrnvo r1i lo uL13v di i idT .sq bluow 'uli I&II xfi '1iiu IEi3oa

ic1T .noii13si1vi1q b3nnu1-1db ni iaiLqx bEm d bluow 113th tdb \1iiu 1E!3o

i (4VQ I nit2bLI) rLiLBw 1iiu 1Eio 1n bbd131 (L2uoivsIq 3v13r1 I rI3iffw 3bu1ing13m

ii floiiqmu2no3 £11q133 iq rim i srHw (3)u d noii3fltJl SI13lbw 1131302 r1i 1J .3 (n- y) + I ( 11— sç+1) = (i.? ) 5IM = 6 + I nr1T

. 1 = ()u briE I miI

Page 24: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

.noi!Iid LI uodii I1nrIu3

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1th3o in 1o milob q mI1ob . I lo nui u1iiv 1n2iq 13 3ubo1q bluow diLiw 'ii1u IEi3o lo

1thinidu I3v ii i nis b3ilqrni ir1i rioif lid I I = W2214 rhiW .(W224) rhIEw ii1u3

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Page 25: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

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.nmi2JJ{bE A2i brnu2s dX no nibnqb r1i1iw Xiu3a 1Ei3o2

vXi1u32 lEi3p2 nixiIviiq 10 vmorio3 1s3iii1o r1T :aXnmmo nibu13noD

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noiXE1u3!E3 dX niig lthi2no3 iuo n 2ifft won 2 oT .1di.aoqnni '11s3iXi1oq noiXEsiXEvilq

Vi35I dt ;b3X3Tthnu rn (0 = I XE) ftinl2 n1X1o miX dI XE 2uii1 n1T .1 JdET flu nwork

X21Xn1 I21fl n1X 3fli2 31V12 idb wn n1i oX IudiIIno3 oX viu1 ion ob Xilnd1o uiI ni 2bnod

0T XudiiXnoo won 0 = X rniX XE e'o1qnn uomun iom 1T .

I i Iiinu ub ion is 2inrnEq

—q) nno3fli Jnrn1iX5u infin1 n1i moil iibnd oX Xqx no n{T .21nuo3313 flivE2 bbnu1 oX

3nsnfl oX xri ,rLIlo mn12 iinIX1I .

T q iv-u idth lEnioiiibbE iii ni mf1 sm lud 1=X XE 0T(ç

I QIwb

Page 26: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

54

b = ooQ = 003Q o•Q

I�12!C q1tI2wu JOL Cb!W1 oIJJA

b = 5•5

b—J=b—J=00

EdrnJI B!t vqThuu

b= b = = k140 1921C yqThuiu

20044 2=0030

D2COflU I�fC

1p bLG2U pjrtc Q1LJ LGL D0jJL 0j4G 20C191 2CnWA JG&JJJ

C! LL0W DGP rn1JJcGq OC!1 GCfILEI) bL!l1X1!OU

IP1 S

Page 27: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

3d rnig iov bluow brrnflo iow 3b&n 3d Iliw rli —q b3x3 33PI32 id3b ifh

bborn 31qmi ir11 ni bnno1 3d r1im noiiviiq o iovi1 ni 1hojam 1ii1i1oq A .noiBi1svhq

io 1=1 iB id1 lodE! 3d1 lXn3 Iliw otlw oIqm3 3d1 ol n3biud xEl 3cIflo iom niflid d Io i ii .3ub nd i r&h iini li nsniI oi I=t n niEs Jd3b 3di niiini 1imloqm3?

diwoi ld3b niiIui U133 ir1 w i ni ivie d3b 3d gninoqoq qI o 3!dioq 31UO3

.no!1Ei1Evnq moil nis 3111 3isnirniI3 o

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AM 3gbi1dmED I idmtq2

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Page 28: I00 VACUUC - National Bureau of Economic Researchifl321oD bnB 13dd3H-ibimr13 (QQ1) wod2 ls11I gniflirl2 01 5 b3bnul m3i22 bluow 11si1nsi2du2 32iE1 3111113W 'd gfli3ub3l 3111 2flOillOI2ib

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.O-1 qq I .o14 .IoV Q8Q1 'lunEI.

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.ôQ I nimo3ftho1 iI iiivinU

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