i2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes
TRANSCRIPT
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i2b/2. Practice. Future
Anticipate changesJosep Mª Monguet
The Lion King, 1994
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Trying to understand the futureLevels, difficulties and values of forecasting Key sources of gradual changes.
Mapping the futureIceberg model.Green blue & orange models.From ego to eco.
Influencing the futureThe future is in the past and in the present
Summary
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Summary
Understanding the future
What is changing?
Mapping the future
Modelling change
Influencing the future
Action for change
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Anticipate the changes
Trying to understand the future
Understanding the future
What is changing?
Mapping the future
Modelling change
Influencing the future
Action for change
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Trying to understand the future Many levels of future
TacticalShort term domestic &
business interest
Medium & long term perspective.Society evolution
Strategic
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Trying to understand the future Forecasting limitations
Assumptions Specialisation Short term
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Trying to understand the future Forecasting limitations
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Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value
Scenarios
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Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value
Changing people’s minds
Social change
Thinking about future
Scenarios
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Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value
Decision making
Guide action
Strategy
Thinking about future
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Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. Technology
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Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. People
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Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. Politics & economy
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Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions
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Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions
Overcoming Specialisation
... Etc. Short termAssumptions
Guide action / Strategy
Decision making
Changing people’s minds
Social change
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions
Guide action / Strategy
Decision making
Changing people’s minds
Social change
Overcoming Specialisation
... Etc. Short termAssumptions
![Page 18: I2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032617/55acf2101a28ab5a798b4708/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Anticipate the changes
Mapping the future
Understanding the future
What is changing?
Mapping the future
Modelling change
Influencing the future
Action for change
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the future Iceberg model
Events and crises
Patterns
Underlying structures
Mental models / Assumptions
System
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the future Iceberg model
Events and crises
Patterns
Underlying structures
Mental models / Assumptions
System
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the futureConsidering complementary scenarios
Orange model
Blue model
Greenmodel
Collective Individual
Integrated
Fragmented
Adapted from
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the futureConsidering complementary scenarios
Orange model
Blue model
Greenmodel
Collective Individual
Integrated
Fragmented
Big companiesConsumer preferencesCorporate career Profit & market leadership.
Adapted from
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the futureConsidering complementary scenarios
Orange model
Blue model
Greenmodel
Collective Individual
Integrated
Fragmented
Networked economy.High-tech business model. Flexibility & no fixed costs.
Adapted from
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the futureConsidering complementary scenarios
Orange model
Blue model
Greenmodel
Collective Individual
Integrated
Fragmented
Social & green responsibility. Ethics & environment care.Society & business aligned.
Adapted from
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Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Blue world Blue
model
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Blue world
Big company capitalism is king
Consumer preferences dominateCorporate career separates the haves from the have-nots.
How to compete? - Scale is a crucial differentiator. - Mega-corporations global competition for talent & resources .- Constant innovation keeping in pace with customer demands.
Blue model
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Green world Green
model
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Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Green world
Companies are open, trusting & collaborative learning organisations
Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials as a top priority.
How to compete? - A social and environmental conscience is demanded through the organisation and its supply chain. - Ethical values & work – life balance.
Blue modelOrange modelGreenmodel
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We
Me
Rational
Emotional
Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Orange world
http://global-influences.com
Orange model
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Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Orange world
Global businesses fragment where small is beatiful
Technology empowers a low impact high-tech business model.
How to compete? - Diverse mix of people on an affordable, ad hoc basis.- Flexibility, autonomy and varied challenges in return for working on a short-term contractual basis.
Blue modelOrange model
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https://www.presencing.com
Mapping the futureGreen /Orange/Blue Scenario Blue
modelOrange model
Greenmodel
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Anticipate the changes
Influencing the future
Understanding the future
What is changing?
Mapping the future
Modelling change
Influencing the future
Action for change
![Page 34: I2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032617/55acf2101a28ab5a798b4708/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Influencing the futureIndependence of the future
In 2011 UN designated Danila, born in Manila, as the 7 billionth
resident of planet Earth
Club of Rome 1970’s
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present
Scenario development Generation of scenarios and
compelling ways to present them.
Framing Knowledge boundaries,
timeframe, People involved, etc.
SearchScanning to identify
signs of changeAnalysis Evaluation of evidence
Categorizing signs of change
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[email protected] | http://huntingmammoths.com
Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present
Scenario development
Framing
Search
Analysis
Prioritizing opportunities
Leadership Visionaries campaignPlanning Strategic issues
Change ManagementSelection of effective domain.