IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear Power – current status and future development

International Nuclear Conference

"BULGARIAN NUCLEAR ENERGY – NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND WORLD ENERGY SAFETY“

2-4 June 2011

Alexander V. Bychkov

Deputy Director General

IAEA 22

IAEA and Nuclear Power

“The Agency has a key role to play in ensuring that this expansion in nuclear

power takes place in an efficient, responsible and sustainable manner.

“…countries should be able to introduce nuclear power knowledgeably, profitably,

safely and securely. .”

Yukiya Amano

Director General

IAEA

“The Medium Term Strategy 2012-17”

A. “Facilitating access to nuclear power.”

B. “Strengthening promotion of nuclear science, technology, and applications.”

C. “Improving nuclear safety and security.”

D. “Providing effective technical cooperation.”

E. “Strengthening the effectiveness and improving the efficiency of the Agency’s safeguards and other verification activities.”

F. “Providing efficient, innovative management and strategic planning,”

IAEA

“Facilitating access to nuclear power”

• The Agency should respond to growing interest in nuclear power, both from newcomers and from countries with existing nuclear power programmes, with all stages of the fuel cycle.

• “Member States will discuss the development of multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle, including the possibility of creating voluntary mechanisms for assurance of nuclear fuel supply, as well as possible schemes dealing with the back-end of the fuel cycle.”

• The Agency should help Member States: • to build capacities in nuclear science, energy systems analysis,

engineering evaluations, project management and long term planning;

• to support innovations in all areas of nuclear power; and

• to assist throughout all stages of research reactor applications.

IAEA

Structure of global electricity supply

Global electricity generation in 2008: 20 180 TWh

Coal41.0%

Oil5.5%

Natural gas21.3%

Nuclear13.5%

Hydro15.9%

Biomass1.3%

Other Ren1.5%

IAEA

The Role of Nuclear Power in the Future Energy Mix

• Continued growth in global energy demand

• Energy security

• Price volatility

• Environment protection and climate change

Nuclear power:

• Improved operations, good economics and safety record starting in the early 1990s

In spite of economic crisis:Prospects better than ever since the mid 1990s

IAEA

Impact of a doubling of resource prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nuclear Coal Natural gas

US

$ p

er M

Wh

Base costs

Double resource costs

IAEA 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GW

e

8

2010 – From rising expectations to renaissance?

• 442 reactors in operation, up from 437 at the end of 2009• 374 GWe total installed capacity, up from 371 GWe at the

end of 2009• 5 new reactors connected to the grid, up from 2 in 2009

and 0 in 2008• 2 reactor shutdowns in 2010, and 2 in 2009• 12 new construction starts; compared to 12 in 2009 and 10

in 2008• 24 of 29 operating countries are considering expansion• 2 “newcomers” ordered their first NPPs

IAEA

Distribution of NPPs

9

IAEA 1010

What will the renaissance look like?

• Take place mostly in countries that already have nuclear power• Low projection: ~ 10 new countries by 2030

• High projection: ~25 new countries by 2030

• Just keeps pace with overall electricity growth

• Most of the growth expected in Asia

IAEA

Fukushima…

IAEA

IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety

• The IAEA and Director General Mr.Amano have proposed that an IAEA Ministerial IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear SafetyConference on Nuclear Safety should take place from June 20 to 24 in Vienna.

• The Conference goals:• to make a preliminary assessment of the

Fukushima Daiichi accident,

• to discuss ways of strengthening emergency preparedness and response

• to review nuclear safety generally.

IAEA

IAEA DG Y.Amano about safety:

• Harmonisation of the many valuable safety instruments which we already have

• Regulatory bodies must be further strengthened

• The IAEA system of expert peer review missions could be strengthened and expanded

• Technological developments, such as the introduction of next-generation reactors with stronger reliance on inherent safety features, will be an important driver of enhanced safety in the coming years.

• The IAEA can play a key role in coordinating national efforts to promote ever safer nuclear energy technology.

IAEA

Safety First

• Safety First, • when countries review their existing nuclear power plants,

• when they build new plants,

• when engineer innovative new reactors.

• when countries contemplate introducing nuclear technology for the first time and when established users consider expanding their programmes.

• Safety First must also be our guiding principle as we examine ways of strengthening nuclear safety globally.

• The main driver of the enhanced safety is The main driver of the enhanced safety is naturally the technologynaturally the technology

IAEA 15

Nuclear power landscape, May 2011

Operating Considering Expressing interest Negative Delaying

IAEA

IAEA – LOW Projection

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

history

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

GW

(e)

IAEA

IAEA – HIGH Projection

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

GW

(e) history

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

IAEA

World Reactors Distribution

1804/21/23

IAEA

World Reactor Types

19

IAEA

Proposed Nuclear Power Plants

20

The number of planned NPPs for construction is based on the low demand estimate consistent with the strategy of sustaining the nuclear energy utilization at the level of 2007

04/21/23

IAEA

Classification of Nuclear Reactors

21

Many definitions1. EPRI – Guidelines for developing Third

Generation reactors2. WNA - Definition of a Gen III reactor 04/21/23

Gen I Gen II Gen III Gen IV

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Generation I

Early phase: Shippingport, Dresden, Fermi I, Magnox

Generation II

Most operating reactors:LWR (PWR, BWR), CANDU, VVER, RBMK, AGR

Generation III

Improved designs:ABWR, AP600, System 80+, EPR, EC6

Generation III+

Evolutionary design with improved economics:AP1000, EPR1000, ACR1000

Generation IV

Highly economic, enhanced safety, minimize waste, proliferation resistant

Gen III+

IAEA

Summary of Gen 3(+) Attributes

22

EPRI:1. Simplification

2. Design Margin

3. Human Factor

4. Safety

5. Design Basis Versus Safety Margin

6. Regulatory Stabilization

7. Standardization

8. Proven Technology

9. Maintainability

10.Constructability

11.Quality Assurance

12.Economics

13.Sabotage Protection and Good Neighbour

WNA :1. Standardized design

2. Simpler and more rugged design

3. Higher availability and longer operating life

4. Reduced possibility of core melt accidents

5. Resistance to serious damage

6. Higher burn-up, Burnable absorbers(“poisons”)

7. Incorporation of passive or inherent safety features

8. Designed for load-following

9. Harmonized licensing as designs are more standardized

04/21/23

IAEA

Advanced Reactors

23

Country and developer

Reactor

Size MWe gross

Design Progress

Main Features (improved safety in all)

US-Japan (GE-Hitachi, Toshiba)

ABWR 1380 Commercial operation in Japan since 1996-7. In US: NRC certified 1997, FOAKE

- Evolutionary design - More efficient, less waste - Simplified construction (48

months) and operation

USA (Westinghouse)

AP600 AP1000 (PWR)

600 1200

AP600: NRC certified 1999, FOAKE AP1000 NRC certification 2005, under construction

in China, many more planned there Amended US NRC certification expected Sept 2011

- Simplified construction and operation

- 3 years to build - 60-year plant life

Europe (Areva NP)

EPR US-EPR (PWR)

1750

Future French standard French design approval Being built in Finland, France & China Undergoing certification in USA

- Evolutionary design - High fuel efficiency - Flexible operation

USA (GE- Hitachi)

ESBWR 1600 Developed from ABWR, undergoing certification in USA, likely construction there

- Evolutionary design - Short construction time

Japan (utilities, Mitsubishi)

APWR US-APWR EU-APWR

1530 1700 1700

Basic design in progress, planned for Tsuruga US design certification application 2008

- Hybrid safety features - Simplified Construction and

operation

04/21/23

IAEA

Advanced Reactors contd.

24

Country and developer

Reactor

Size MWe gross

Design Progress

Main Features (improved safety in all)

South Korea (KHNP, derived from

Westinghouse)

APR-1400 (PWR)

1450

Design certification 2003, First units expected to be operating c 2013. Sold to UAE.

- Evolutionary design - Increased reliability - Simplified construction and

operation

Europe (Areva NP)

Kerena (BWR)

1250 Under development, pre-certification in USA

- Innovative design - High fuel efficiency

Russia (Gidropress) VVER-1200

(PWR) 1290

Under construction at Leningrad and Novovoronezh plants

- Evolutionary design - High fuel efficiency 50-year plant life

Canada (AECL) Enhanced CANDU-6

750

Improved model Licensing approval 1997

- Evolutionary design - Flexible fuel requirements

Canada (AECL) ACR 700

1080 Undergoing regulatory pre-project review in Canada

- Evolutionary design - Light water cooling - Low-enriched fuel

China (INET, Chinergy) HTR-PM 2x105

(module)

Demonstration plant due to start building at Shidaowan

- Modular plant, low cost - High temperature - High fuel efficiency

04/21/23

IAEA

IAEA Medium Term Strategy on 2012-2017

“Technological breakthroughs and other unanticipated events will require adjustments between 2012 and 2017. The Agency will position itself to take prompt actions to seize the advantages of positive opportunities and minimize the adverse consequences of unexpected negative developments.”

IAEA

Fukushima Potential ImpactNPP design impact

Assessment of NPP safety robustness (design margins) Improvements of safety systemsExpanding the DBA list of events and designing against some classes of BDBAs or

combinations of DBAsVarious NPP design changes for operating NPP, particularly for new builds

Operational impactAssessment and improvements of the operating proceduresAssessment and improvements of the SAMGs, and implementation of more rigorous

training

Nuclear energy economy and strategyReview of NPPs design, construction, operation, and energy cost Increase of energy cost in general (from all energy sources – global effect) More stringent requirements for siting of NPPsLonger schedule for obtaining construction licence and EA approvalsWeakening of commercial interest for some reactor types that do not prove to have

enough safety robustness, or which are not adequately protected against severe accidents (or not enough passive features)

2604/21/23

IAEA

WANO & WENRA - Regulatory Changes

WANO sent a request to all operating NPPs to perform assessment of the station safety robustness against severe accidents

WENRA issued a request to perform a “stress test” for all operating and new build NPPs Emphasize on rare severe accidents with high consequences

Potential regulatory changes More stringent regulatory requirements for new NPP designs More stringent requirements for operating NPPs and those that are planned for life

extension More stringent requirements for NPP operation and maintenance Less tolerance for noncompliance issues in NPP operation Additional activities by the international regulatory agencies (particularly IAEA, WANO

and WENRA) leading to more stringent monitoring and assessment of NPP design and operation (periodic safety assessments)

New regulatory requirements and documentation with higher expectations Reconsidering the event frequency range for DBAs and BDBAs

2704/21/23

IAEA

WENRA Stress Tests• Prescribed by the WENRA organization to evaluate NPP design

robustness and safety margins against severe accidents

• Licensees requested to conduct stress tests until Sep 2011; European Commission will prepare final report by Dec 2011

• Scope• Initiating events conceivable at the plant state

• Severe earthquake

• Severe flooding

• Other extreme natural events, or combination of the above

• Consequential loss of safety function• Loss of electrical power, including station blackout (SBO)

• Loss of ultimate heat sink (UHS)

• Combination of the above

• Severe accident management issues• Means to protect from and manage loss of core cooling function

• Means to protect from and manage loss of cooling function in the spent fuel pool

• Means to protect from and manage loss of containment integrity2804/21/23

IAEA

Conclusions

• Nuclear energy is extensively used in the world today as reliable base-load energy

• Nuclear energy planning at the low level demand involves building of significant number of new NPPs around the world

• Highest rate of new builds is expected in Eastern Asia

• New advanced reactor designs known as Gen 3 and 3+ have emerged in recent years

• As a result of the Fukushima event in Japan, the advanced reactors will be subjected to additional level of scrutiny and design improvements and changes

• As a result of the Fukushima event, the regulatory requirements will become more stringent and demanding

2904/21/23

IAEA

Thank You for attention