Enabling plural pathways: uncertainty and responses to climate change

Ian Scoones

Climate Change and Uncertainty from Above and Below27-28 January 2016

IIC, New Delhi

Understanding non-equilibrium systems…..

Climate models and uncertainty.…• Increasing complexity - more variables, more computing power• More models (IPCC 5 had 50 plus models, from 20 plus groups) – CMIPs

(coupled model inter-comparison projects) based on linked Atmospheric-Ocean GCMs

• Huge variation compared across model ensembles. But uncertainties exist within as well as between models (shared assumptions, modelling cultures/institutional contexts) – incomplete knowledge throughout

• Downscaling from global change to impacts at geographic/field level (e.g. linking to crop production), major inconsistencies…. And even more uncertainty.

Knowledge and politics• Science (and modelling) has limitations in context of complexity,

uncertainty, indeterminacy….• Knowledge not produced independently of framings, assumptions,

values and politics – shaped by social experiences/cultures (in labs, in field, in assessment panels, in policy settings)

• Multiple knowledges generate different claims of objectivity, legitimacy, authority = debate

• Deliberation among different claims, involving diverse groups, essential – and this is political (always).

unproblematic

knowledge about likelihoods

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

Non-linear, non-equilibrium systems

Human, social factors changing contexts

problematic

Four dimensions of incertitude – opening up debate

risk assessment, prediction

cost benefit analysis optimising decision models

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about possibilities

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

INCERTITUDE

what is benefit or harm? how fair? which alternatives?whose values and societies?

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about possibilities

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

surprise

black swans

novel agents, vectors, dynamics

INCERTITUDE

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about possibilities

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITYpolitical closureabsence of participation,lack of democracy

reductive modelsaggregative analysis

` science-based policy

institutional cultures

insurance protection indicators / metrics

IGNORANCE

Power Closes Down to Risk illuminate specific microdynamics of closure

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about possibilities

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

Opening Up Political Space for Debate

definitive prevention

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

RISK

knowledge about possibilities

Methods: explore and experiment with ‘plural condition’ practices

UNCERTAINTY

precautionary appraisal

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

IGNORANCE

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

knowledge about possibilities

scenarios backcasting

interactive modells

MC mapping Q-method

AMBIGUITYparticipatory deliberation

knowledge about likelihoods

problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

transdisciplinarity, social learning

civic research, participatory monitoring,

learning adaptation

unproblematic

unproblematic problematic

AMBIGUITYRISK

knowledge about possibilities

knowledge about likelihoods

problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

unproblematic

unproblematic problematic

AMBIGUITYRISK

knowledge about possibilities

Theme

Conventional views Emerging views

Knowledge/power Science as arbiter, single source of authoritative knowledge; conflict, dissent and debate underplayed

Multiple sources; plural and partial perspectives; conflict, dispute and dissent inevitable; negotiated understandings

Risk and uncertainty

Measurable risks and predictable outcomes; assumptions of ‘normal’, ‘standard’ patterns

Uncertainty and ignorance; temporal variability and spatial diversity

Development planning and policy

Blueprint approach; linear policy model Adaptive planning, flexible, responsive, learning; non-linear policy: negotiation, adaptation, discretion key

Livelihoods and resource management

Single use, sectoral view of resources; resources as commodities; production focus

Multiple users, complex and diverse livelihoods

Institutions Static, rule-based, formal, clear boundaries, fixed, exclusivity

Dynamic, overlapping, heterogeneous, socially-defined, emergent from social relations and practice, flexible

Legal frameworks Formal legislation: fixed rules and procedures Evolving law in practice, multiple systems, legal pluralism

Governance Separation of levels: local vs global; rules and formal institutions of governance

Networks of actors, multi-level governance, messy interactions, negotiation of outcomes

From above and below….across• Combining sources of knowledge and understanding -

‘dismantling the divide’ between ‘expert’ and other knowledges

• Rethinking modelling practices and cultures – combined approaches for negotiating uncertainty

• Transdisciplinarity, participation, deliberation, co-production, social learning for sustainability

• New institutions, new professionals – dealing with mess, brokers, tracking, mediators

• Keep it complex, embracing uncertainty - plural and conditional advice for multiple pathways