iaqm agm 2015 - nick molden - insights from real world emissions testing in context of defra...
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Insights from real-world emissions testing
in context of DEFRA consultationNick Molden
12 November 2015
2
• Founded in 2011• Headquartered in Winchester, with operations in London and Los Angeles• 10 employees, currently expanding in EU• Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis• 1000 vehicles tested• Expert in high-efficiency real-world data collection• RDE-compatible testing conducted since 2011• Works with OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies,
consumer media
Emissions Analytics’ credentials
3
Benefits of PEMS
• Real on-road testing using PEMS is a powerful research method
• Authentic and cost effective• Works on all vehicle types• No permanent vehicle modification required• Flexible location• High rate of data acquisition – 1 Hertz• Precision approaching laboratory levels
4
Equipment
• SEMTECH-DS and Ecostar-FEM• Portable Emissions Measurement System
connects to tailpipe• Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2,
total hydrocarbons• At 1 Hertz
• Air temperature, pressure, humidity• GPS for speed and altitude• Engine data via CANBUS• Fuel economy derived via carbon balance• Weight addition 100-250 pounds
INSIGHTS ON REAL-WORLD NOx
5
6
ICCT report
7
• Euro 5 and 6 diesels• Rolling 12-month
average of exceedance factor
• Step-change improvement from Q2 2014
• But recent trend less clear
• 5 have met standard• Spikes due to 4x4s
NOx latest trends (1)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
02-1
1-11
02-0
1-12
02-0
3-12
02-0
5-12
02-0
7-12
02-0
9-12
02-1
1-12
02-0
1-13
02-0
3-13
02-0
5-13
02-0
7-13
02-0
9-13
02-1
1-13
02-0
1-14
02-0
3-14
02-0
5-14
02-0
7-14
02-0
9-14
02-1
1-14
02-0
1-15
02-0
3-15
02-0
5-15
Exce
edan
ce F
acto
r
8
• Real-world reductions more impressive
• Many now meeting Euro 5 standard
• Tightening regulations reducing divergence in results
• Although still occasional outliers
NOx latest trends (2)
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Real
-wor
ld N
Ox
(g/k
m)
9
• Gasoline considered not to have NOx problem
• 21% of vehicles exceed limit
• Slightly upwards trend• Large engines and
larger vehicles account for most vehicles exceeding limit
NOx latest trends (3)
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
02-1
1-11
02-1
2-11
02-0
1-12
02-0
2-12
02-0
3-12
02-0
4-12
02-0
5-12
02-0
6-12
02-0
7-12
02-0
8-12
02-0
9-12
02-1
0-12
02-1
1-12
02-1
2-12
02-0
1-13
02-0
2-13
02-0
3-13
02-0
4-13
02-0
5-13
02-0
6-13
02-0
7-13
02-0
8-13
02-0
9-13
02-1
0-13
Real
-wor
ld N
Ox
(g/k
m)
10
• Not regulated• But important for road-
side pollution• Latest results suggest
NO2 levels meet total NOx regulated level on average
• Very low fNO2 is possible with certain after-treatment systems
NO2 latest trends
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
02-1
1-11
02-0
1-12
02-0
3-12
02-0
5-12
02-0
7-12
02-0
9-12
02-1
1-12
02-0
1-13
02-0
3-13
02-0
5-13
02-0
7-13
02-0
9-13
02-1
1-13
02-0
1-14
02-0
3-14
02-0
5-14
02-0
7-14
02-0
9-14
02-1
1-14
02-0
1-15
02-0
3-15
02-0
5-15
Real
-wor
ld N
Ox
(g/k
m)
11
• From Emissions Analytics’ database, at OEM level• Based on 410 tests• Diesel Euro 6 emissions falling – down from 5.1 conformity factor in Q1
NOx key statistics
Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6
Real-world NOx (g/km) 0.773 0.299 0.049
Average Conformity Factor 4.3 3.7 0.8
fNO2 – minimum % 27 17 0
fNO2 – mean % 44 48 24
fNO2 – maximum % 66 80 72
fNO2 % – standard deviation 14.5 19.4 27.7
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Cold start and DPF regeneration
• Define cold start event• Continuous event from coolant temperature low point up to full operation temperature• Compare to similar cycle wholly at full operating temperature (1.0 = no uplift)
• 18% larger uplift for Euro 6 diesels than Euro 5s• Gasoline has much higher uplift but on a low base
• Compare DPF regeneration to repeat immediately afterwards• 37% average increase in NOx emissions during event• NO2 significantly lower during event – 70% down on average
Diesel Euro 5 Diesel Euro 6 Gasoline Euro 5/6
Cold start uplift ratio 1.4 1.6 3.0
DPF regeneration uplift ratio 1.4 n/a n/a
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Prospects for Real Driving Emissions• How effective will the new NOx regulations be? An improvement, but not that strict• 80 mg/km NOx limit for diesels, compared to 31 mg/km in the US• Add 2.1 conformity factor (1.5 from 2020/1)• Add effect of boundary conditions, transfer function• Add delay for all new models until 2019• Add speed of propagation of new models through car parc• Effect is a limit in real-world driving of 168+ mg/km
• But manufacturers will have to target a lower level due to measurement variability• Estimated at ~30% by Joint Research Centre• So effective target of 129+ mg/km• x1.6 the diesel limit; x2.9 real-world gasoline
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• Proposed real-world limits marked with dotted lines
• 29% of Euro 6 diesels tested already meet 2017/19 limit
• Some after-treatment systems proven to be effective in real-world
• Net effect of regulation not as strict as required?
Regulated levels
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Sep-
2011
Apr-
2012
Oct
-201
2
May
-201
3
Nov
-201
3
Jun-
2014
Dec-
2014
Jul-2
015
NO
x (g
/km
)
Test date
Euro 5
Euro 6
Euro 5
2020/21Euro 6
2017/19
FUEL ECONOMY CONTEXT
15
16
• Gap between official and real-world fuel economy due to limitations of official cycle
• Was growing by ~2% points per year
• Latest data suggests slowing of gap growth
• But also falls on absolute fuel economy
• Due to effect of Euro 6?• Creating a CO2 problem?
A growing gap?
-24.0%
-22.0%
-20.0%
-18.0%
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Varia
nce
of T
rue
MPG
to o
ffici
al c
ombi
ned
Com
bine
d fu
el e
cono
my
Model Year
