ic requirements for next generation systems...slide 1 ic requirements for next generation systems...

IC Requirements For Next Generation Systems

Club Vivado Users Group – Malcolm Penn – Oct 2015 Chairman & CEO, Future Horizons

Your Passport To Future Horizons

The Global Semiconductor Industry Analyst“Making Sense Of The Industry Tea Leaves”

(Google “Future Horizons” or “Malcolm Penn Semiconductors” For More Details)

Analysing The Facts Economy Unit Demand Fab Capacity ASPs

The FUD, The Hype & Delusion Perception Emotion Fashion Sentiment

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Chronology & Background 1989 – Company Founded (Apr 1) Worldwide Semiconductor Industry Focus European & Russia/CIS Semiconductor Industry Specialisation Full Spectrum – Advanced Research To Market Development Market Research, Industry Analysis & Training Custom Consulting & Marketing Studies Due Diligence & IP/Product Positioning Business Development Opportunities & 1-2-1 Contacts Start-Ups Through Large Corporations & NXD Support Off-The-Shelf Research Reports & Industry Intelligence/Analysis Bespoke Research Assignments - From Proof Of Concept To Full Market Development Due Diligence Analysis - From Seed Funding Through IPO Competitive Benchmarking & Positioning - From the Basic IC Design & Technology Up Unique Combination Of Chip Design Know-How With Market & Business Insight

~5 Decades Of Semiconductor Industry ExperienceLonger Than ANY Other Industry Analyst & Most Industry Execs

(Google “Malcolm Penn Drums” For My Near Alternative & Formulative Early Career!)

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Ten Industry Mega-Challenges* New Start-Up Famine: Due to the high costs and loss of VC appetite driving

Shift to IP Fabless Market Saturation: With all IDMs now fabless the fabless sector can

no longer ‘outperform’ the market … it is the market Foundry Supply: With TSMC dominant, they can now only grow ‘with the market’ Fab-Tight Supply: Net new capacity now built to order not expectation Virtual OEM: The emergence of firms such as Amazon, Apple and maybe Google Market Opportunities: Need for more substantial research vs superficial

opinions, blogs and over-hyped head-line grabbing articles (e.g. the IoT Fiasco) Technology Challenges: Every new node (and transistor design) here on out

will be revolutionary not evolutionary Industry Consolidation: Reducing the overall market pie for the down-stream

providers and supplier choice for the up-stream customers ‘More Than Moore’: Assuming deeper importance as systems become smarter,

more intelligent, interconnected and communicative New Design Techniques: Addressing the increasing occurrence of errors in

the logic execution

* FH Research Report (Feb 2015) Subscribe To Our Regular Update Reports & Industry Briefings

Three Patterns Of Semiconductor Innovation

Disruptive Innovation Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947) Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959) Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971)

Exponential Innovation Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965)

Cyclical Innovation Makimoto’s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto*: 1991)

* Previously GM of Hitachi SC (1959-2001); Spearhead of 6147 High-Speed CMOS Intel 2147 SRAM Replacement


Disruptive Innovation Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947) Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959) Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971)

What Next? Post-CMOS Scaling (Materials & Structures)

Biological ICs/Systems (Grown Inside The Final Package) Quantum Computing (When We Finally Figure Out How)


Exponential Innovation Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965)

What Next? Moore’s Law Is Dead (It’s Over At 28nm, That Much We’ve Been Told!!)

Shame No-One Told Samsung & TSMC LogicMemory

With 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2,25nm, 1.8nm & 1.3nm Well Understood (Whether anybody can afford them is another matter altogether!)

20062009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

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3D NAND … Tough But Getting There

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Supply’s Not An Issue Either (If Pre-Ordered*)

Foundry Market By Feature Size

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“We Do Not Build Speculative Capacity” – Dr Morris Chang, Jan 2015*(FH Advisory … Net New Capacity Is A One-Year Lead Time Item)


Cyclical Innovation Makimoto’s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto: 1991)

What Next? Now This Question IS Interesting! (Not Just For Xilinx Either )

What Is Makimoto’s Wave?*

StandardDiscretes

Custom LSIsfor TVs,

Calculators

MemoriesMicro-

processors

ASICs

FieldProgram-mability

Standardization

Customization

'67 '77 '87 '97'57

'07

Standardized inManufacturing

butCustomized in

Application

＊ Named by D. Manners (Electronics Weekly , Jan. 30,1991)

Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto

Semiconductor Pendulum (Custom vs Standard Enigma)

StandardizationCustomization


Makimoto’s Wave Extension

'17SoC/SiP ‘２7

HighlyFlexibleSuper

IntegrationHFSI

● Why HFSI? Same Reason As Before …Increasing design cost, Fragmented market

● HFSI Technological Breakthroughs1) Integration of multi-functions incl. FPGA2) Emergence of high-performance NVRAM

StandardDiscrete

CustomLSI

MPU &Memory

ASIC

FieldProgram-mability

Standardization

Customization

'67 '77 '87 '97'57

'07


Process Evolution Remains Key

*14nm A9 (Samsung) 96mm2 / 16nm A9X (TSMC) 105mm2

A9A9X*

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Except For … The Interconnect!

14/16nm >20 Million Transistors On A Pin Head SRAM Cell ~ 0.070µ2 – TSMC / 0.059µ2 - Intel

Chip Size Dominated By Interconnect Not Gates Probably Why Some Firms Skipping 10nm For 7nm

Needs New Interconnect Techniques On-Chip Wireless vs Track? (1cm Range / Tens of GHz, Not ISM Bands) On-Chip Optical? (Alternative to Wireless) Network On Chip? (e.g. Dundee Spacewire Technology)

12-Layer Metal, Top Layer 0.1mm Wide (L1 Too Wide Also) For Many Chips Shrinks Below14/16nm Are ‘Irrelevant’ (No Gain)

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Spacewire Network On A Chip

Source: Dundee University/Future Horizons

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Smartphone Automotive – Engine Management Automotive – Chassis & Safety Printers Home Automation Industrial Projection Displays

(MEMS) Sensors Key Too

Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report)

Slide 18

Plus Low-Volume (High-Value ) Aerospace & Defence

(enabling spin-off products such as commercial ‘drones’) ‘Wearables’’, Medical Products & Other ‘IoT’ Applications Gaming, Robotics & Toys (‘Other Sales’)

MEMS Product ExamplesMicrophone

Source: Knowles/ChipWorks

InkJet Print Head RF Switching

Source: IOPSource: STM Source: InvenSense

Camera Focusing

Source: Freescale

10-Axis Gyroscope Pressure Sensor

Source: OmronD


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Other Key ChallengesConnectivity:Currently – Low Number Of High Bandwidth, Single ConnectionsIoT – ‘Trillion’ Low Bandwidth, Unique IP Addresses (Router vs IPv6 Issue)

Security:Currently – FirewallIoT – Built Into Device (From Thermostats To Dolls; From TVs To Cars)

Processor:Currently – S’Ware Hackable MPU (Intel, PowerPC, ARM, XMOS …)IoT – Reverse-Engineer ‘Impenetrable’ FPGA Code

Software:Currently – 1-10 Threads, Serial Code – Point-To-Point Network CentricIoT – Millions Of Threads, Parallel Code – Neural Network Centric

SoC Design:Currently – Independent Design Teams, Chip Partitioning-BasedIoT – Agile Development, Collaborative, Cross-Functional, 2-Week Sprints

Chip Market Drivers

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Smartphone – Ubiquitous & TransformativeFrom Jan 2007 Launch

From Homosapiens

To ‘Planet Of The Phones’

To Phonosapiens … 21st Century Oods?

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From Automation To Design Services

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To The Much Over-Hyped ‘IoT’ Industry & Governments Talk About IoT As If It Were One Space, One Solution – It Is Of Course Not … It Represents A Wide Range Of Markets, Applications, Technologies & (Eventually Real) Opportunities

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Micro-Fluidics (Lab-On-A-Chip)

Similar Techniques To Inkjet-printer, Already Surprisingly Large Market (~$2b) Highly Specialised BUT Chemistry Dominates This Field NOT The MEMS Device

Source: ElveFlowSource: Berkeley

Think Vitamins & ‘Voodoo’ Healthcare Sales … This Market Is Huge(But Not For The Chip Suppliers… Think Apple & Amazon!!)


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Data Explosion

Source: Intel

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2015 = 2x (only)

Semiconductor Innovation

So ‘No Pressure’ There Folks … !!

Slide 27

Makimoto’s Wave – Observation

Standardization

Customization

'17SoC

& SiP‘27

HFSIStandardDiscrete

CustomLSI

MPU &Memory

ASIC

FieldProgram-mability'67 '77 '87 '97

'57'07

SASC?

Amplitude Of Sine Wave Decreasing At Successive PeriodsEach Less Flexible / Less Programmable Than Before …

Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto / Future Horizons

‘47‘37 SASC

??

Makimoto’s Wave – Ultimate End Game

Self Aware Self Configuring ICs (Systems) Think For Themselves & Configure Accordingly Intelligent ICs … The Ultimate Hardware Solution

Be Careful What You Wish For!

Contact Details – www.futurehorizons.com Future Horizons Ltd44 Bethel RoadSevenoaks, KentTN13 3UE, EnglandT: +44 (0)1732 740440F: +44 (0)1732 464270E: [email protected]

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ic requirements for next generation systems...slide 1 ic requirements for next generation systems...

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