ice age - scholars

8/14/2019 Ice Age - Scholars

1/100

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 1Scholars Ice Age

Ice Age Disad

Ice Age Disad .................................................................................................................................................................1Shell................................................................................................................................................................................3**********Uniqueness/Link**********.....................................................................................................................4Uniqueness - IA Approaching.........................................................................................................................................5

Ext: GW No Ice Age .................................................................................................................................................6Increased Warming Key................................................................................................................................................11**********IA Impacts**********.............................................................................................................................12IA Impacts - General.....................................................................................................................................................13IA Impacts Species Extinction...................................................................................................................................15IA Impacts Disease.....................................................................................................................................................17IA Impacts War...........................................................................................................................................................18IA Impacts Famine.....................................................................................................................................................19IA Impacts Economy..................................................................................................................................................20IA Impacts Refugees .................................................................................................................................................21IA Impacts Storms .....................................................................................................................................................22***********Probability***********.........................................................................................................................23Present Temp Drop .......................................................................................................................................................24

Empirical Evidence ......................................................................................................................................................25Studies/Models Prove ..................................................................................................................................................26 Natural Phenomena ......................................................................................................................................................27Solar Theory ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ........... ..... .28***********Timeframe***********.........................................................................................................................30Interglacial Period Now................................................................................................................................................31Solar Patterns (2022).....................................................................................................................................................32***********Answers to Answers***********..........................................................................................................33AT: Warming Outweighs...............................................................................................................................................34AT: GW IA (Milankovitch Proves)..........................................................................................................................36AT: GW IA (Volcanoes)...........................................................................................................................................37AT: GW IA (Little Ice Age)......................................................................................................................................38AT: GW IA (Solar Patterns).....................................................................................................................................39

AT: NAC Shutdown (General)......................................................................................................................................40AT: NAC (Keenlyside Model)......................................................................................................................................41AT: NAC (Cooling Inev.) .............................................................................................................................................42AT: NAC (Wind-cycles)................................................................................................................................................43AT: NAC (Solar Inactivity) ..........................................................................................................................................44AT: NAC (Studies) .......................................................................................................................................................45AT: NAC IA............................................................................................................................................................46AT: Polar Precipitation .................................................................................................................................................47AT: Milankovitch Wrong..............................................................................................................................................48***********AFF ANSWERS***********...............................................................................................................49GW Ice Age (Stagnant NAC)..................................................................................................................................50GW Ice Age (NAC)..................................................................................................................................................54 NAC Brink....................................................................................................................................................................55

NAC - Most Detailed Studies Prove.............................................................................................................................56 NAC Impacts- General..................................................................................................................................................57NAC Impacts Species Extinction (Plankton).............................................................................................................58 NAC Impacts Species Extinction (Arctic).................................................................................................................59NAC Impacts Salinity Valves ....................................................................................................................................60 NAC Impacts Methane Calthrates ............................................................................................................................61 NAC Impacts Larsen B. Iceshelf...............................................................................................................................62 NAC Impacts El Nino................................................................................................................................................63 NAC Impacts Famine ................................................................................................................................................64 NAC Controls Climate..................................................................................................................................................65 NAC Controls Ocean Conveyors..................................................................................................................................66


2/100


NAC Controls Hydrologic Cycle..................................................................................................................................67**********2AC (w/ specific extensions)**********................................................................................................692AC- General Block .....................................................................................................................................................702AC - Volcanoes Turn...................................................................................................................................................74Ext. SO2 cools ..............................................................................................................................................................772AC - Polar Precipitation Turn ....................................................................................................................................80

Ext. GW

PP..............................................................................................................................................................81Ext. Ice Age = Inevitable...............................................................................................................................................82Polar Precipitation = Inevitable.....................................................................................................................................832AC Glacial Melting Turn.........................................................................................................................................84Ext. Ice Melt IA ......................................................................................................................................................86**********1AR General Extensions**********.......................................................................................................881AR- Ext. GW fails.......................................................................................................................................................891AR- Ext. Need to Stop GW.........................................................................................................................................901AR- Ext. GW makes conditions worse.......................................................................................................................911AR- Ext. NAC changes=man made ...........................................................................................................................921AR- Ext. Credible Ev. ................................................................................................................................................931AR- Multiple tipping points........................................................................................................................................941AR- TF Defense .........................................................................................................................................................951AR- Milankovitch is wrong........................................................................................................................................961AR- Emilani is wrong ........................ .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ..... ...... ...... ...981AR- Ext. Warming caused past IA..............................................................................................................................991AR- Ext: High Risk of NAC failure..........................................................................................................................100


3/100


Shell

( ) Greenhouse gas emissions are currently preventing an ice age

Marsh 8(Gerald, retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department ofDefense on strategic nuclear technology and policy, The Coming of a New Ice Age; canadafreepress.com)

There were very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago when Earths climate entered an unusualperiod of instability. Starting about a million years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years,separated by relatively short interglacial perioods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Beforethe onset of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earths history, it was far warmer than it is today. Indeed, theSun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large land plants have flourished. Bothof these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest level inEarths long history. Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 timescurrent levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels dropped to a little less thantwice what they are today. It is possible that moderatelyincreased carbon dioxide concentrations couldextend the current interglacial period. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we knowthe optimum level to reach. So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhapsthe best thing the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and theclimatology community in

general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed toextend the current interglacial period indefinitely. NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earthsclimate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age? We ought to carefully consider thispossibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars tocombat a perceivedglobal warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.

( ) An ice age would cause extinction

Pearson 8(Christopher; Writer for the Weekend Australian; All-round Country Edition; A Cool Idea to Warm To; Lexis)

A little ice age would be ``much more harmful than anything warming may do'', but still benign bycomparison with the severe glaciation that for the past several million years has almost always blightedtheplanet. The Holocene, the warm interglacial period we've been enjoying through the past 11,000 years,has lasted longer than normal and is due to come to an end. When it does, glaciation can occur quitequickly. Formost of Europe and North America to be buried under a layer of ice, eventually growing toa thickness of about 1.5km, the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and itcan happen in aslittle as 20 years. Chapman says: ``The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen foranother 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than intypical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027. By then,most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the

world would be faced witha catastrophe beyond imagining. Australia may escape total annihilation butwould surely be overrun by millions of refugees.'' Chapman canvases strategies that may just conceivablyprevent or at least delay the transition to severe glaciation. One involves a vast bulldozing program to dirtyand darken the snowfields in Canada and Siberia, ``in the hope of reducing reflectance so as to absorb morewarmth from the sun. We may also be able to release enormous floods of methane (a potent greenhouse gas)from the hydrates under the Arctic permafrost and on the continental shelves, perhaps using nuclear weapons

to destabilise the deposits''. He concludes: ``All those urging action to curb global warming need to takeoff the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead. It willbe difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for socialchange depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.''


4/100


**********Uniqueness/Link**********


5/100


Uniqueness - IA Approaching

( ) An ice age is coming- glacial studies prove.

Boyd in 5(Elijah, Reporter for Science and Technology, ICE AGE - INTERVIEW WITH A GEOLOGIST, co2science.org)Global cooling

Q: What evidence do you have of the Earth entering a new ice age?A: I have indeed been working on more information, and I have more hard temperature data coming from manyplaces in the world [and] the activity of glaciers that are growing in many different places, such as Greenland,Norway, and Sweden. The Bering Glacier, the largest maritime glacier in Alaska, has advanced even more than Idocumented previously. It has gone down the valley 9 kilometers in the last 17 months, putting icebergs down theriver that goes into Prince William Sound. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has had to keep their eye on thatbecause of all the oil tankers that come down there. The last data I have are for 1995. This is a rapidly growingglacier that covers 1,000 square miles and accumulates a lot, and now it is funnelling this accumulation downtowards the ocean.There are now USGS professional papers, which are satellite atlases of the principal glacial areas of the world.Q- Are they on the web somewhere?A: The world glacier monitoring service is on the web. I have some copies of graphs from this coming to me, of

many different glaciers which are surging, in many places in the world. But a lot of data about different glaciers arenot on the web. Dr. Anker Wedek of the Geological Service of Denmark and Greenland, working with the USGS,has put together an atlas on Greenland, of which I just received a copy. It was done in 1995, and it reports on thelarge number of glaciers which are surging and increasing in volume in Greenland. The same thing is happening inAntarctica, with an even bigger glacier...Q: Is that the one that is adding 200 gigatons of ice per year?A: Yes, that was the estimate, done separately by different people. Professor Bentley, who did that work inAntarctica, was the principal author. His summary appeared in a 1993 issue of [the American Geophysical Union'smagazine] Eos, along with some other rather complete papers.They said that that glacier in Antarctica is indeed increasing at 200 gigatons a year. It is also increasing in elevationat about 4 feet a year.This was measured by looking at some big ITT transmission towers, which are now way down in a hole (!). And, asthe glacier adds about 4 feet of ice per year it doesn't stand still-it starts moving out. Therefore, although it's adding

4 feet a year of ice, it's only increasing in elevation at about, actually, two-tenths of a meter a year, because of themass outflowage.


6/100


Ext: GW No Ice Age( ) An increase in CO2 emissions prevents the next ice age.

Tyrell in 6(Writer for Science Daily; Next Ice Age Delayed By Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels;http://www.sciencedaily.com)

Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels.It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them.The result would bethe same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual

ice-age-prevention result.' Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years as the pattern of Earth's orbit alters

over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps, plunging the Earth into anice age. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descent into an ice age; levels ofatmospheric CO2 are also important. Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of fossil fuels. This worksuggests that even if only 1000 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (out of total reserves of about 4000Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped. Burning all recoverable fossil fuels could lead toavoidance of the next five ice ages.

( ) Anthropogenic induced warming is the only factor that could offset the upcoming ice

age.IDSO in 5(Craig, Keith, Sherwood, CO2 Science Magazine, January 19, www.co2science.org)The authors contend that "ice-core evidence from previous interglaciations indicates that forcing by orbital-

scale changes in solar radiation and greenhouse-gas concentrations should have driven earth's climate

significantly toward glacial conditions during the last several thousand years," and that "the hypothesized

reason most of this cooling did not occur is that humans intervened in the natural operation of the climate

system by adding significant amounts of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, thereby offsetting most of the

natural cooling that otherwise would have occurred and fortuitously producing the climatic stability of the lastseveral thousand years." If true, how did humans do it? Ruddiman et al. attribute the anomalous increase inatmospheric CO2 to massive early deforestation of Eurasia, while they link the anomalous CH4 increase to theintroduction of irrigation for rice farming in southeast Asia, as well as to increases in biomass burning and thedevelopment of animal husbandry. What was done Based on the periodicities and phases of the natural cycles of

CO2 and CH4 that are revealed in the 400,000-year Vostok ice core, Ruddiman et al. first determined that the air'sCO2 concentration should have fallen to 240-245 ppm, whereas it gradually rose to a level of 280-285 ppm, justbefore the start of the Industrial Revolution, while the air's CH4 concentration rose to approximately 700 ppb whenit should have fallen to about 450 ppb. Then, based on the IPCC sensitivity estimate of a 2.5 C temperatureincrease for a doubling of the air's CO2 content, they calculated that the supposedly anthropogenic-induced CO2 andCH4 anomalies should have produced an equilibrium warming of approximately 0.8 C on a global basis and 2

C in earth's polar regions. What was learned On the basis of these calculations, the authors conclude that"without any anthropogenic warming, earth's climate would no longer be in a full-interglacial state but well

on its way toward the colder temperatures typical of glaciations," and that "an ice sheet would now be

present in northeast Canada, had humans not interfered with the climate system."What it means If correct,the overdue-glaciation hypothesis indicates that in the absence of anthropogenic contributions of CO2 and

CH4, the climate today would be, in the words of Ruddiman et al., "roughly one third of the way toward full-glacial temperatures," which also suggests that the extra CO2 we are currently releasing to the atmosphere

via the burning of fossil fuels may well be what's keeping us from going the rest of the way. Hence, even if the

IPCC is correct in their analysis of climate sensitivity and we are wrong in suggesting the sensitivity they

calculate is way too large, the bottom line for the preservation of civilization and much of the biosphere is that

governments ought not interfere with the normal progression of fossil fuel usage, for without more CO2 in the

atmosphere, we could shortly resume the downward spiral to full-fledged ice-age conditions. Ought we not bedoubly careful, therefore, as the United States indeed is, in not rushing forward to implement the Kyoto Protocol oranything like it? We certainly think so.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/http://www.sciencedaily.com/http://www.sciencedaily.com/


7/100


Ext: GW No Ice Age( ) Decreasing greenhouse gas emissions will trigger an ice age

Ruddiman 5(William, et. Al, Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, Quaternary Science)

The relative temperature stability of the last 10,000 years has long been viewed as the result of naturalclimatic causes. Orbital variations are seen as having permitted a brief interglacial breakbetween theprevious glaciation and the next one, each encompassing 90% of the duration of a 100,000-year cycle. Anaccompanying view has persisted that humans played no significant role in altering atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations or affecting global climate until the 1800s, when byproducts of the industrial revolutionbegin to add measurably to the natural greenhouse-gas levels already in the atmosphere and to contribute tothe warming trend of the last century (IPCC, 2001). Both of these concepts have been challenged (Ruddiman,2003). Ice-core evidence from previous interglaciations indicates that forcing by orbital-scale changes insolar radiation and greenhouse-gas concentrations should have driven Earths climate significantlytoward glacial conditions during the last several thousand years. The hypothesized reason that most ofthis cooling did not occur is that humans intervened in the natural operation of the climate systembyadding significant amounts of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, thereby offsetting most ofthe naturalcooling and fortuitously producing the climatic stability of the last several thousand years. One predictionof this hypothesis is that early anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions stopped a glaciation thatotherwise would have begun several millennia ago.

( ) AND, the reduction of CO2 via the aff plan will cause another ice age.

McMillan 2(Bruce McMillan, Director of Illinois State Museum, http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages)A general reduction in the amount ofcarbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere may contribute to thedevelopment of ice ages. Carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas. Decreases in the amount of CO2

in the atmosphere may lead to global cooling. Many processes can cause a long-term decrease in the amountof CO2 in the atmosphere. These processes include many complex interactions among organisms, oceancurrents, erosion, and volcanism. Important relationships exist between ice ages and the composition of theatmosphere; however, many scientists are unsure whether the changes in atmosphere cause cool periods orwhether cool periods cause atmospheric changes. Also, many scientists are not sure the magnitude of past CO2changes was large enough to initiate ice ages.

( ) CO2 emissions will actually allow us to skip the next ice age.

Flam 2(Faye, Inquirer Staff Writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer,; Global Warming Might Stall the Next Ice Age; Lexis)Though there are some dissenters, many climate experts estimate the global temperature will rise between 4

and 9 degrees by the end of the 21st century. "The warming will certainly launch us into a new interval in termsof climate, far outside what we've seen before," said Crowley.In the long run, he said, carbon dioxide emissionscould cause the cycle of ice ages to "skip a beat." Loutre and Berger estimated that human activity woulddouble the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the next two centuries. Still, "it could getmuch worse," said Crowley. There's a huge reservoir of coal and if people keep burning it, they could more thanquadruple the present carbon dioxide concentrations, he said.
http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ageshttp://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages


8/100


Ext: GW No Ice Age( ) Global warming is the only way to delay the ice age. We control timeframe on this

question.

Flam in 2

(Faye, Inquirer Staff Writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer,; Global Warming Might Stall the Next Ice Age; Lexis)It may be hot now, but it's never too early to start thinking about the next ice age. Based on the Earth'shistorical cycle of warm and cold periods, we're due for a big freeze any millennium now. If the next cold spellis like the last one, which ended 10,000 years ago, glaciers would cover much of North America, creeping as farsouth as New York City. Ice ages and warmer "interglacials" alternate in cycles. In the last few cycles, therelatively warm "interglacials" lasted about 10,000 years. Since our current interglacial started about 10,000 yearsago, it's due to end any time now. The cold periods last much longer than the warm ones - 80,000 to 100,000years. Over the whole planet, ice ages reduce temperatures by only about 10 degrees, but the chill is morepronounced in temperate zones - such as most of the United States. "If you were living in Philadelphia, you couldhave taken a day trip to see the ice sheet," said Duke University climatologist Tom Crowley. A 50-foot-thick glaciercovered Long Island back then, he said. But there's the possibility that ongoing global warming could delay theonset of the next big freeze by thousands of years, according to Belgian researchers, writing in today's issue of

the journal Science. "We've shown that the input of greenhouse gas could have an impact on the climate

50,000 years in the future," said Marie-France Loutre of the Universite Catholique de Louvain in Belgium.Factoring in the higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, Loutre and colleague Andre Bergerfound that the next ice age may not come for a few more tens of thousands of years. The increase in carbondioxide, many scientists believe, has come primarily from the increased burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil andgas. Scientists don't normally connect global warming with ice ages since they happen on very different time scales -decades for global warming, compared with tens of thousands of years for ice ages, said Princeton climatologistJorge Sarmiento. Still, he said, "it's not an unreasonable idea... . It's something I've contemplated." His own work, hesaid, has backed Loutre's contention that today's increased carbon dioxide should linger for millennia - long enoughto influence the far-future forecast. Some of the extra carbon dioxide will be eventually dissolved in the oceans,he said, "but that takes a long time." This summer not withstanding, we're in a relatively cold period

compared with most of the planet's history. When dinosaurs roamed New Jersey, 100 million years ago, it was

about 15 degrees warmer than today, with little permanent ice anywhere. But it's considerably warmer now

than during the last ice age.

( ) CO2 emissions will allow us to skip the next ice age.Flam in 2(Faye, Inquirer Staff Writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer,; Global Warming Might Stall the Next Ice Age; Lexis)Though there are some dissenters, many climate experts estimate the global temperature will rise between 4

and 9 degrees by the end of the 21st century. "The warming will certainly launch us into a new interval in termsof climate, far outside what we've seen before," said Crowley.In the long run, he said, carbon dioxide emissionscould cause the cycle of ice ages to "skip a beat." Loutre and Berger estimated that human activity woulddouble the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the next two centuries. Still, "it could getmuch worse," said Crowley. There's a huge reservoir of coal and if people keep burning it, they could more thanquadruple the present carbon dioxide concentrations, he said.

( ) Reduction of CO2 will cause another ice age.

McMillan in 2(Bruce McMillan, Director of Illinois State Museum, http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages)A general reduction in the amount ofcarbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere may contribute to thedevelopment of ice ages. Carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas. Decreases in the amount of CO2 in

the atmosphere may lead to global cooling. Many processes can cause a long-term decrease in the amount of CO2in the atmosphere. These processes include many complex interactions among organisms, ocean currents, erosion,and volcanism. Important relationships exist between ice ages and the composition of the atmosphere; however,many scientists are unsure whether the changes in atmosphere cause cool periods or whether cool periods causeatmospheric changes. Also, many scientists are not sure the magnitude of past CO2 changes was large enough toinitiate ice ages.
http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ageshttp://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages


9/100


Ext: GW No Ice Age( ) Human-induced warming prevents the catastrophic impacts of another ice age. An

increase in emissions prevents home displacement, famine, and world chaos. We win. 1

Ray in 5

(John, (M.A.; Ph.D.), writing from Australia, Man-Made Global Warming Hoax http://antigreen.blogspot.com)Humans may have unwittingly saved themselves from a looming ice age by interfering with the Earth'sclimate, according to a new study. The findings from a team of American climate experts suggest that were it

not for greenhouse gases produced by humans, the world would be well on the way to a frozen Armageddon.

Scientists have traditionally viewed the relative stability of the Earth's climate since the end of the last ice age

10,000 years ago as being due to natural causes. But there is evidence that changes in solar radiation andgreenhouse gas concentrations should have driven the Earth towards glacial conditions over the last few

thousand years. What stopped it has been the activity of humans, both ancient and modern, argue the

scientists. Over the last 8,000 years carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have gradually risen, when

previous trends indicated that it should have dropped. Methane, another greenhouse gas, had also increasedinstead of fallen. The unexpected trends could be explained by massive early deforestation in Eurasia, rice farmingin Asia, the introduction of livestock, and the burning of wood and plant material, all of which led to an outpouringof greenhouse emissions. The United States researchers, led by William Ruddiman from the University of Virginiain Charlottesville, used a climate model to test what would happen if these greenhouse gases were reduced to their"natural" level. They wrote in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews: "In the absence of anthropogeniccontributions, global climate is almost 2C cooler than today and roughly one third of the way toward full

glacial temperatures." At the peak of the last ice age, which began 70,000 years ago, 97% of Canada was

covered by ice. The research showed that without the human contribution to global warming, Baffin Island

would today be in a condition of "incipient glaciation". "Portions of Labrador and Hudson Bay would also havemoved very close to such a state had greenhouse gas concentrations followed natural trends," said the scientists. Theexperiment had probably underestimated the amount of ice that would exist today in north-east Canada withouthuman interference, they said. The number of potential influences on the model was deliberately limited in order tohighlight the effect of greenhouse gases. It did not take into account the effect of increased ice cover, which wouldhave caused further cooling by reflecting back the sun's rays. Dynamic ocean processes were also not accounted for.Anthropologist Dr Benny Peiser, from Liverpool John Moores University, said: "If the research findings are correct,a radical change in the perception of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will be required. "Instead of drivingus to the brink of environmental disaster, human intervention and technology progress will be seen as vital

activities that have unintentionally delayed the onset of a catastrophic ice age."

( ) Warming has caused climactic stability and it has offset the next ice age.

Ruddiman in 5(William, et. Al, Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, Quaternary Science)

The relative temperature stability of the last 10,000 years has long been viewed as the result of natural

climatic causes.Orbital variations are seen as having permitted a brief interglacial break between theprevious glaciation and the next one, each encompassing 90% of the duration of a 100,000-year cycle. An

accompanying view has persisted that humans played no significant role in altering atmospheric greenhouse-

gas concentrations or affecting global climate until the 1800s, when byproducts of the industrial revolution beginto add measurably to the natural greenhouse-gas levels already in the atmosphere and to contribute to the warmingtrend of the last century (IPCC, 2001). Both of these concepts have been challenged (Ruddiman, 2003). Ice-coreevidence from previous interglaciations indicates that forcing by orbital-scale changes in solar radiation andgreenhouse-gas concentrations should have driven Earths climate significantly toward glacial conditions during thelast several thousand years. The hypothesized reason that most of this cooling did not occur is that humansintervened in the natural operation of the climate system by adding significant amounts of CO2 and CH4 to

the atmosphere, thereby offsetting most of the natural cooling and fortuitously producing the climatic

stability of the last several thousand years.One prediction of this hypothesis is that early anthropogenicgreenhouse-gas emissions stopped a glaciation that otherwise would have begun several millennia ago.
http://antigreen.blogspot.com/http://antigreen.blogspot.com/


10/100


Ext: GW No Ice Age( ) Our modern emissions habits are examples of technological manipulation of our

environment. Without interference our earth would be covered in ice, this outweighs any

warming impacts.

Telegraph in 5SUNDAY TELEGRAPH 1-30-05For some reason, environmentalists seem convinced that anything mankind does must be worse than leaving

Mother Nature to her own devices. In reality, Mother Nature has been trying to plunge us back into an ice age

for thousands of years. For the whole of recorded history, we have been living in an unusual "interglacial"

period - and we should be mighty glad that it shows no signs of closing. Indeed, the real question is why it hasremained open so long. The ebb and flow of ice ages are controlled by astronomical cycles in the orbit andorientation of the Earth in space, and calculations suggest that the interglacial window should have begun closingsince Biblical times. In a paper just published in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews, a team of climatescientists led by Prof William Ruddiman ofthe University of Virginia puts forward one explanation - but you

just know that eco-warriors are going to hate it. The team suggests that the ice age has been fended off

because mankind has been "interfering" with Mother Nature for far longer than we think. The current flapover global warming focuses on the past 150 years or so, when fossil fuel burning and population growth really

started to take off. Yet the resulting global warming should have been just a blip on a downward trend in temperaturepresaging the return of the ice age. Prof Ruddiman and his colleagues have taken a much longer view, and looked atways that mankind could have affected the Earth climate since the dawn of history.In their paper,they argue that acombination of ancient agriculture, deforestation and biomass burning can boost the key "greenhouse gases"

carbon dioxide and methane to levels cancelling out the cooling that should have occurred over the past few

thousand years.To get some idea of what might otherwise have happened, the team studied geological recordsfrom around 400,000 years ago, when the ice age was at the same part of its cycle as it is today. The results are

sobering. With no means of influencing the climate, prehistoric humans would have found themselves

besieged by giant ice-sheets and bitterly cold conditions. Modelling by the team showed annual averagetemperatures dropping by 5.5F over North America and Northwest Europe and winter temperatures plungingby 8F.

( ) Human CO2 emissions are staving off the next ice age.


The 2 1C mean-annual cooling simulated by removing anthropogenic greeenhouse gases (Fig. 3a) is equivalent toroughly one third of the global-mean difference between full-interglacial and full-glacial climates (CLIMAP, 1981;Mix et al., 2001). It also represents 80% of the warming simulated by the GENESIS 2 model in response to adoubling of modern CO2 (Thompson and Pollard, 1997). Without any anthropogenic warming, Earths

climate would no longer be in a full-interglacial state but well on its way toward the colder temperatures

typical of glaciations.

( ) Were headed for cooling now- warming solves.

Bischof 02(Jens Bischof is author of Ice Drift, Ocean Circulation And Climate Change and is a research assistant professor in

Old Dominions Department of Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Ice In The Greenhouse:Earth May BeCooling, Not Warming fromQuest January 2002 Volume 5 Issue 1http://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/greenhouse.htmlaccessed June 29, 2008)

In the meantime, we should prepare ourselves for the possibility that our cherished ideas about globalwarming may be, if not dead wrong, only partially correct. Intriguing recent evidence gathered from ice-rafted debris looks remarkably similar to a much older pattern that preceded an ice age. We may have toentertain the possibility that Earths natural climate development may be on a return to another suchperiod, or at least to colder conditions than we now experience. If so, andironically, the very greenhousewarming we fear may either mitigate the cooling or cancel it altogether.
http://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/Volume5Issue1.htmlhttp://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/Volume5Issue1.htmlhttp://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/greenhouse.htmlhttp://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/greenhouse.htmlhttp://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/Volume5Issue1.htmlhttp://www.odu.edu/ao/instadv/quest/greenhouse.html


11/100


Increased Warming Key

( ) Scientists and think tanks alike both believe that warming needs to accelerate to offset

the upcoming ice age.

Joyce and Keigwin in 8

(Terrence, Senior Scientist, Physical Oceanography and Lloyd, Senior Scientist, Geology & Geophysics; Are We onthe Brink of a 'New Little Ice Age?; May 7)

Indeed, some groups advocate the benefits of global warming, including the Greening Earth Society and the

Subtropical Russia Movement. Some in the latter group even advocate active intervention to accelerate the

process, seeing this as an opportunity to turn much of cold, austere northern Russia into a subtropical

paradise. Evidence has mounted that global warming began in the last century and that humans may be in partresponsible. Both theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the USNational Academy ofSciences concur. Computer models are being used to predict climate change under different scenarios of greenhouseforcing and the Kyoto Protocol advocates active measures to reduce CO emissions which contribute to warming.Thinking is centered around slow changes to our climate and how they will affect humans and the habitability of ourplanet. Yet this thinking is flawed: It ignores the well-established fact that Earths climate has changed rapidly in thepast and could change rapidly in the future. The issue centers around the paradox that global warming couldinstigate a new Little Ice Age in the northern hemisphere. Evidence for abrupt climate change is readily apparent inice cores taken from Greenland and Antarctica.One sees clear indications of long-term changes discussed above,with CO and proxy temperature changes associated with the last ice age and its transition into our present

interglacial period of warmth.But, in addition, there is a strong chaotic variation of properties with a quasi-period of around 1500 years. We say chaotic because these millennial shifts look like anything but regularoscillations. Rather, they look like rapid, decade-long transitions between cold and warm climates followed by longinterludes in one of the two states.

( ) Cooling has an exponential effect on our earth. An increase in snow and ice reflects 80%

of incoming radiant energy. This significant loss of potential heat calls for an acceleration

of warming,

Tkachuck in 5(Richard; Geoscience Research Institute; November; The Little Ice Age; http://www.grisda.org)

After the cooling event has begun, it can, to some extent, become self-perpetuating. With increased snowcover the amount of energy absorbed by the earth is reduced. Up to 80% of the incoming radiant energy

normally captured can be lost due to the reflectivity of the snow and ice (Lamb 1977, p. 285). This is asignificant loss of potential heat, further exacerbating the cooling effect. The polar latitudes are a constant areaof heat loss for the global system. In summer the amount of heat absorbed is not equal to the amount lost during thewinter. Were it not for an equal overbalance in the equatorial regions where heat gain is 2.5 times greater than heatloss, the Earth would become increasingly colder. The mixing of the excess equatorial heat with the overall heatdeficit in the northern latitudes promotes a stable environment that can be maintained even in latitudes

where there is net heat loss, e.g., the temperate zones.The presence of large bodies of water such as oceans tendsto balance the cooling trend on the land masses. As the air and water temperatures cool, less moisture is evaporatedinto the atmosphere resulting in less rain or snow. If precipitation is less, a relative increased melting of previouslyfallen snow can take place.
http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www4.nationalacademies.org/nas/nashome.nsfhttp://www4.nationalacademies.org/nas/nashome.nsfhttp://www4.nationalacademies.org/nas/nashome.nsfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www4.nationalacademies.org/nas/nashome.nsfhttp://www4.nationalacademies.org/nas/nashome.nsf


12/100


**********IA Impacts**********


13/100


IA Impacts - General

( ) A new ice age is due now and its impacts are catastrophic. Famine, world chaos, and

world war win timeframe and magnitude against global warming.

Kenny in 2

(Andrew Kenny, Sunday Mail for Queensland, Australia; FEATURES; Pg. 54; July 14, 2002, Sunday; Lexis Nexis)A new ice age is due now, says ANDREW KENNY, but you won't hear it from green groups, who like to playon Western guilt about consumerism to make us believe in global warming THE Earth's climate is changing in a dramaticway, with immense danger for mankind and the natural systems that sustain it. This was the frightening message broadcast to us byenvironmentalists in the recent past. Here are some of their prophecies. The facts have emerged, in recent years and months, from research into

past ice ages.They imply that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely sourceof wholesale death and misery for mankind. The cooling has already killed thousands of people in poor

nations . . . If it continues, and no strong measures are taken to deal with it, the cooling will cause world

famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come about by the year 2000. As recently as January 1994, thesupreme authority on matters environmental, Time magazine, wrote: The ice age cometh? Last week's big chill was a reminder that the Earth'sclimate can change at any time . . .The last (ice age) ended 10,000 years ago; the next one -- for there will be a nextone -- could start tens of thousands of years from now. Or tens of years. Or it may have already started. The

scare about global cooling was always the same: unprecedented low temperatures; the coldest weather

recorded; unusual floods and storms; a rapid shift in the world's climate towards an icy apocalypse. But now,

the scare is about global warming. To convert from the first scare to the second, all you have to do is substitute"the coldest weather recorded" with "the warmest weather recorded". Replace the icicles hanging from oranges inCalifornia with melting glaciers on Mt Everest, and the shivering armadillos with sweltering polar bears. We weregoing to freeze but now we are going to fry. Even the White House is making cautionary sounds about warming.What facts have emerged to make this dramatic reversal? Well, none really. The most reliable measurements showno change whatsoever in global temperatures in the past 20 years. What has changed is the perception that globalwarming makes a better scare than the coming ice age. A good environmental scare needs two ingredients.

The first is impending catastrophe. The second is a suitable culprit to blame. In the second case, the ice age

fails and global warming is gloriously successful.


14/100


IA Impacts - General

( ) We control empirics on this question; evidence shows that a past cooling caused wide-

spread drought and famine that reduced human pop. to 15000. A sizeable ice age spells

extinction.

Whitehouse in 98(Dr David, BBC News Online science editor; Humans came 'close to extinction';http://news.bbc.co.uk)

A new hypothesis about recent human evolution suggests that we came very close to extinctionbecause of a"volcanic winter" that occurred 71,000 years ago. Some scientists estimate that there may have been as few as15,000 humans alive at one time. The volcanic winter lasted about six years. It was followed by1,000 years ofthe coldest Ice Age on record. It brought widespread famine and death to human populations around theworld. It also affected subsequent human evolution. This was because of a so-called bottleneck effect. The rapiddecrease, in our ancestors' populations, in turn, brought about the rapid differentiation - or genetic divergence - ofthe surviving populations. The idea is being advocated by Professor Stanley Ambrose of the University of Illinois.He believes that the eruption of Mount Toba in Sumatra caused the bottleneck. "Modern human races may havediverged abruptly, only 70,000 years ago," he writes in the Journal of Human Evolution. Geneticists have thoughtfor some time that humans passed through a recent evolutionary bottleneck but they had little idea what may havecaused it. Scientists believe that an eruption of Toba caused a volcanic winter that lasted six years and significantlyaltered global climate for the next 1,000 years. Duringthose six years, there was substantial lowering of globaltemperatures, drought and famine. No more than 15,000 people survived. When better conditions returned, thehuman population was able to grow once more and develop the genetic diversity we see today. "When our Africanrecent ancestors passed through the prism of Toba's volcanic winter, a rainbow of differences appeared," ProfessorAmbrose said.

( ) An ice age could lead to crop failure, drought, famine, plague, and war.

Gunter in 8(Lorne,Canadian Centre for Libertarian Studies; Welcome to the new ice age; nationalpost.com)He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescopefocused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does notpick up soon. The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five

centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war werewidespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/http://news.bbc.co.uk/http://news.bbc.co.uk/


15/100


IA Impacts Species Extinction

( ) An ice age would destroy entire species. 2/3 of all the species on the planet were

destroyed by the last ice age.

CNN in 4

(CNN, Science & Space, Supernova, sun combo blamed for mass extinction;http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH)"The prevailing theory for that extinction has been an ice age," said Adrian L. Melott, a University of Kansasastronomer. "We think there is very good circumstantial evidence for a gamma ray burst." Melott is the leaderof a team, which includes some astronomers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, that presentedthe theory Wednesday at the national meeting of the American Astronomical Society. Fossil records for theOrdovician extinction show an abrupt disappearance of two-thirds of all species on the planet. Those records

also show that an ice age that lasted more than a half million years started during the same period. Melottsaid a gamma ray burst would explain both phenomena. He said a gamma ray beam striking the Earth wouldbreak up molecules in the stratosphere, causing the formation of nitrous oxide and other chemicals that

would destroy the ozone layer and shroud the planet in a brown smog. "The sky would get brown, but there

would be intense ultraviolet radiation from the sun striking the surface." he said. The radiation would be at

least 50 times above normal, powerful enough to killed exposed life. In a second effect, the brown smog

would cause the Earth to cool, triggering an ice age, Melott said. The extinction "could have been a one-twopunch," said Bruce S. Lieberman, a paleontologist at the University of Kansas and a co-author of the theory. "Ourtheory builds on earlier theories" that included an ice age. Before the extinction, the Earth was unusually

warm. Melott said climate experts have been unable to find a model that would explain the sudden onset of massiveglaciers. "They need something to jump start the ice age," he said. "The gamma ray burst could have doneit."
http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECHhttp://www.cnn.com/2004/TECHhttp://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH


16/100


IA Impacts- Species Extinction

( ) Extensive research and experimentation proves that an ice age would destroy our

ecosystem and extinguish many species of mammals.

Boyd in 5

(Elijah, Reporter for Science and Technology, ICE AGE - INTERVIEW WITH A GEOLOGIST, co2science.org)Global coolingQ: Well, what are the consequences if the temperature is falling?A: There are many plants and animals that will no longer be able to survive in the northern most areas. There was apaper published in Nature in 1993, which analyzed the pollen in southern Ontario, south of Lake Nipigon, in the last650 years. The forest there used to be a temperate forest, beech and maples. The maples died out and gave way tooaks, then the oaks died out, and gave way to white pines. Now the white pines are disappearing and being displacedsouthward, and all that's coming back is boreal forest, not a temperate forest. The boreal forest is of birches andaspen. Those are characteristic of what grows way up north in Scandinavia.So, in the last 650 years, southern Ontario has gone into the boreal plant zone. For them, the Holocene [the mostrecent geological epoch] is over! They can probably expect some global warming in about 100,000 years, after theice melts that's going to cover Canada. This is the meaning of this good pollinology study.Now, such a change happened before, in southeastern France, in the last interglacial period, the Eemian, 115,000years ago. This was also published in Nature, by Voillard. They had a temperate forest of hardwoods. Then, in thespace of about 20 years-that's a pretty short time-frame-a rapid cooling took place that killed off the temperateforests. All the hardwoods died, and all that was left was boreal forest, the pine, birch, and spruce.The boreal plant zone, which is today about at the level of Helsinki, Finland, was displaced southward to the VosgesMountains, in France, From 60 degrees north latitude, to 47 degrees north latitude, This happened in 20 years! Now,that would be like taking the current boreal plant zone on the north side of Lake Superior, and displacing it south toGeorgia, in 20 years.That's going to happen. It'll be just like the area moved to Scandinavia.


17/100


IA Impacts Disease

( ) Previous ice ages prove that diseases would run rampant. With convulsions,

hallucinations, and gangerous rotting, living through these could be worse than death.

Mandia in 7

(Scott A.; Professor of Physical Sciences @ SCCC.; The Little Ice Age in Europe; www2.sunysuffolk.edu)The cooler climate during the LIA had a huge impact on the health of Europeans. As mentioned earlier,dearth and famine killed millions and poor nutrition decreased the stature of the Vikings in Greenland and

Iceland. Cool, wet summers led to outbreaks of an illness called St. Anthony's Fire. Whole villages would

suffer convulsions, hallucinations, gangrenous rotting of the extremities, and even death.Grain, if stored incool, damp conditions, may develop a fungus known as ergot blight and also may ferment just enough to

produce a drug similar to LSD. (In fact, some historians claim that the Salem, Massachusetts witch hysteria wasthe result of ergot blight.) Malnutrition led to a weakened immunity to a variety of illnesses. In England,malnutrition aggravated an influenza epidemic of 1557-8 in which whole families died. In fact, during most of

the 1550's deaths outnumbered births (Lamb, 1995.) The Black Death (Bubonic Plague) was hastened bymalnutrition all over Europe.


18/100


IA Impacts War

( ) An ice age would incite mass migrations thatd culminate in violence. As a deterrence

some countries would declare wars; and others would run scarce of resources because of

overpopulation.

Bingel in 7(Dr. Ferit, Middle East Technical University of Marine Sciences, May 25 Ice Age Possible for Scandinavia?;behav.org)

Within recent months, the Pentagon has released a study about the climate changing and the effect it would

have on the world. An abrupt temperature change would come eventually and it would be inevitable. Thestudy was based on information from 8200 years ago when the earth went through the same change. A suddencooling of the earth appeared after a long, extended heat wave. At this time, the Gulf Stream collapsed. Because ofthis past data, the study suggests the fate of Europe. Although there is no way to make sure that the information canbe used to foresee what will happen to the present day, the study does suggest some startling possibilities. Thecollapse of the Stream would be more visible in northern Europe for the first five years. The annual rainfall woulddecrease by 30%, causing a severe drought. An increase in wind would cause the temperature to drop about sixdegrees. Snow would remain on the ground, making Scandinavia in a constant winter phase.The cold wouldstretch onto the latter months making the summer cooler then before. Humans could neither develop

agriculture or permanant settlements and in turn would move southward onto other parts of Europe, being

pushed by the colder, unstable temperature from home. As the population moves, fights and even battles

would break out within the mass migration. Resources within other countries would decline because of the

sudden increase in population within their own country. In defense, some countries would declare war.Notonly would a climatic change move the population, but the fish, wildlife, water and energy consumption all wouldbe effected. By the end of the decade, Europe's weather would be more of a mirror image of Siberia's or northernCanada's then what it looked like in the past. Unfortunately, the duration of this process could take decades and evencenturies.


19/100


IA Impacts Famine

( ) A micro-ice age that Europe endured caused the agricultural yield to be reduced by up

to 20% causing mass famines and millions of deaths.

Mandia in 7

(Scott A.; Professor of Physical Sciences @ SCCC.; The Little Ice Age in Europe; www2.sunysuffolk.edu)Lamb (1966) points out that in the warmest times of the last 1000 years, southern England had the climate thatnorthern France has now. For example, the difference between the northen-most vineyard in England in the past andpresent-day vineyard locations in France is about 350 miles.In other terms that means the growing seasonchanged by 15 to 20 percent between the warmest and coldest times of the millenium. That is enough to affect

almost any type of food production, especially crops highly adapted to use the full-season warm climatic

periods. During the coldest times of the LIA, England's growing season was shortened by one to two monthscompared to present day values. The availability of varieties of seed today that can withstand extreme cold orwarmth, wetness or dryness, was not available in the past. Therefore, climate changes had a much greater impact onagricultural output in the past. Each of the peaks in prices corresponds to a particularly poor harvest, mostly due tounfavorable climates with the most notable peak in the year 1816 - "the year without a summer."One of the worstfamines in the seventeenth century occurred in France due to the failed harvest of 1693. Millions of people in

France and surrounding countries were killed. The effect of the LIA on Swiss farms was also severe.Due to thecooler climate, snow covered the ground deep into spring. A parasite, known as Fusarium nivale, which

thrives under snow cover, devastated crops.Additionally, due to the increased number of days of snow cover,the stocks of hay for the animals ran out so livestock were fed on straw and pine branches. Many cows had tobe slaughtered. In Norway, many farms located at higher latitudes were abandoned for better land in the valleys.By 1387, production and tax yields were between 12 percent and 70 percent of what they had been around 1300. Inthe 1460's it was being recognized that this change was permanent. As late as the year 1665, the total Norwegiangrain harvest is reported to have been only 67 - 70 percent of what it had been about the year 1300 (Lamb, 1995.)


20/100


IA Impacts Economy

( ) Even the risk of a slight cooling period is enough to throw our economy into a recession.

When conditions get cooler, past examples prove the economy has slowed down.

Engdahl in 8

(F. William; Writer for Centre of Research on Globalization; Global Warming gets the Cold Freeze; April 9)There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real

estate market has been hurt as home buyers have stayed home. In just the first two weeks of February,

Toronto received 70 cm of snow, breaking the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in 1950. One of

the most dramatic results of the record cold over much of the planet is the reversal of the much-reported melt

of the icebergs in the Arctic Ocean. Last autumn the world was alarmed to hear from certain climatologists

that the ice in the Arctic had melted to its "lowest levels on record. What was carefully omitted from those

scare stories was the fact that those records only date back as far as 1972, and that there is anthropological

and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.Now, as a result of the recent record cold weather, theice is back. According to Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, the Arcticwinter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than

at this time last year.What few people know and what the Global Warming lobby seems at pains to keep known isthe fact that there is considerable seasonal variation in how much pack ice of the Arctic ice pack covers the ArcticOcean. Much of the ocean is also covered in snow for about 10 months of the year. The maximum snow coveris in March or April about 20 to 50 centimeters over the frozen ocean. The thickness is not one of theuniversal constants, never was.

( ) An ice age would destroy the economy. The market of crops would quickly become

inflated and many economies would lose tax revenues creating a domino-collapse effect.

Mandia in 7(Scott A.; Professor of Physical Sciences @ SCCC.; The Little Ice Age in Europe; www2.sunysuffolk.edu)In addition to increasing grain prices and lower wine production, there were many examples of economic

impact by the dramatic cooling of the climate. Due to famine, storms, and growth of glaciers ,manyfarmsteads were destroyed, which resulted in less tax revenues collected due to decreased value of the

properties (Lamb, 1995.) Cod fishing greatly decreased, especially for the Scottish fisherman, as the cod moved

farther south. The cod fishery at the Faeroe Islands began to fail around 1615 and failed altogether for thirty yearsbetween 1675 and 1704 (Lamb, 1995.) In the Hohe Tauern mountains of the Austrian Alps, advancing glaciersclosed the gold mines of the Archbishop of Salzburg who was one of the wealthiest dukes in the empire. Thesuccession of two or three bad summers where the miners could not rely on work in the mines caused them to

find employment elsewhere, which resulted in an abrupt end to the mining operations (Bryson, 1977.)


21/100


IA Impacts Refugees

( ) An ice would cause mass migrations and result in ultimate violence.

Bingel in 7(Dr. Ferit, Middle East Technical University of Marine Sciences, May 25 Ice Age Possible for Scandinavia?;behav.org)

Within recent months, the Pentagon has released a study about the climate changing and the effect it would

have on the world. An abrupt temperature change would come eventually and it would be inevitable. Thestudy was based on information from 8200 years ago when the earth went through the same change. A suddencooling of the earth appeared after a long, extended heat wave. At this time, the Gulf Stream collapsed. Because ofthis past data, the study suggests the fate of Europe. Although there is no way to make sure that the information canbe used to foresee what will happen to the present day, the study does suggest some startling possibilities. Thecollapse of the Stream would be more visible in northern Europe for the first five years. The annual rainfall woulddecrease by 30%, causing a severe drought. An increase in wind would cause the temperature to drop about sixdegrees. Snow would remain on the ground, making Scandinavia in a constant winter phase.The cold wouldstretch onto the latter months making the summer cooler then before. Humans could neither develop

agriculture or permanant settlements and in turn would move southward onto other parts of Europe, being

pushed by the colder, unstable temperature from home. As the population moves, fights and even battles would

break out within the mass migration. Resources within other countries would decline because of the sudden increasein population within their own country. In defense, some countries would declare war. Not only would a climaticchange move the population, but the fish, wildlife, water and energy consumption all would be effected. By the endof the decade, Europe's weather would be more of a mirror image of Siberia's or northern Canada's then what itlooked like in the past. Unfortunately, the duration of this process could take decades and even centuries.


22/100


IA Impacts Storms

( ) Ice Ages cause a high frequency of storms. The number of sea floods, hailstorms, and

sandstorms could cause a multitude of damage. We control empirics on this question.

Mandia in 7

(Scott A.; Professor of Physical Sciences @ SCCC.; The Little Ice Age in Europe; www2.sunysuffolk.edu)During the LIA, there was a high frequency of storms. As the cooler air began to move southward, the polarjet stream strengthened and followed, which directed a higher number of storms into the region. At least foursea floods of the Dutch and German coasts in the thirteenth centurywere reported to have caused the loss ofaround 100,000 lives. Sea level was likely increased by the long-term ice melt during the MWP whichcompounded the flooding. Storms that caused greater than 100,000 deaths were also reported in 1421, 1446,and 1570. Additionally, large hailstorms that wiped out farmland and killed great numbers of livestockoccurred over much of Europe due to the very cold air aloft during the warmer months. Due to severe erosion

of coastline and high winds, great sand storms developed which destroyed farmlands and reshaped coastal

land regions. Impact of Glaciers During the post-MWP cooling of the climate,glaciers in many parts of Europebegan to advance. Glaciers negatively influenced almost every aspect of life for those unfortunate enough to

be living in their path. Glacial advances throughout Europe destroyed farmland and caused massive flooding.

On many occasions bishops and priests were called to bless the fields and to pray that the ice stopped grindingforward (Bryson, 1977.) Various tax records show glaciers over the years destroying whole towns caught in theirpath. A few major advances, as noted by Ladurie (1971), appear below:


23/100


***********Probability***********


24/100


Present Temp Drop

( ) Empirical and present evidence proves that an ice age is upcoming. We control

probability on this question.

Pearson in 8

(Christopher; Writer for the Weekend Australian; All-round Country Edition; A Cool Idea to Warm To; Lexis)The 10-year plateau in global temperatures since 1998 has already sunk the hypothesis that anthropogenicgreenhouse gas will lead to catastrophic global warming. To minds open to the evidence, it has been a

collapsing paradigm for quite some time. But Chapman's argument about last year's 0.7C fall being ``the

fastest temperature change in the instrumental record'' ups the stakes considerably. It replaces an irrational

panic in the public imagination with a countervailing and more plausible cause for concern. It also raises,

more pointedly than before, a fascinating question: since there are painful truths with profound implications

for public policy to be confronted, how will the political class manage the necessary climb-down? In Australia,Rudd Labor's political legitimacy is inextricably linked to its stance on climate change. If the Prime Minister wants asecond term, he'll probably have to start ``nuancing his position'', as the spin doctors say, and soon. A variation onJ.M. Keynes's line -- ``when the facts change, I change my mind'' -- admitting that the science is far from settled andawaiting further advice, would buy him time without necessarily damaging his credibility. Taking an early stand inenlightening public opinion would be a more impressive act of leadership. While obviously not without risk anddownside, it would make a virtue out of impending necessity and establish him, in Charles de Gaulle's phrase, as aserious man. I don't think he's got it in him. But we can at least expect that some of the more ruinously expensivepolicies related to global warming will be notionally deferred and quietly shelved. Innovation, Industry, Science andResearch Minister Kim Carr will be allowed to invest in high-profile nonsense such as funding ``the green car''. Butthe coal industry is unlikely to be closed down or put into a holding pattern. Nor are new local coal-fired powerstations going to be prohibited until the technology is developed to capture and sequester carbon. Since the greaterpart of the funds for the research underpinning that technology is expected to come from the private sector -- andthere's a limit to what government can exact by administrative fiat -- as the debate becomes calmer and moreevidence-based, business will be increasingly reluctant to outlay money on a phantom problem.Budgetaryconstraints and rampant inflation provide governments with plenty of excuses for doing as little as possible

until a new and better informed consensus emerges on climate. Ross Garnaut could doubtless be asked to extendhis carbon trading inquiry for the life of the parliament and to make an interim report in 12 months on the state thescience. In doing so, he could fulfil the educative functions of a royal commission and at the same time give himselfand the Government a dignified way out of an impasse.Whatever happens in the realm of domestic spin

doctoring, economic realities in the developing world were always going to defeat the global warming zealots.Before the election, Kevin Rudd had to concede that we would not adopt climate policies that were contrary toAustralian interests unless India and China, emitters on a vastly larger scale, followed suit. However, it has

long been obvious that neither country was prepared to consign vast parts of their population to protracted

poverty and to embrace low-growth policies on the basis of tendentious science and alarmist computer

projections. Even if their governments were convinced that global warming was a problem -- and they clearly aren't-- it's doubtful they could sell the self-denying ordinances we're asking from them to their own people. A likelierscenario would be full-page ads in our broadsheets and catchy local television campaigns paid for by the Indian andChinese coal, steel and energy industries that buy our raw materials. Their theme would surely be that if many of theWest's leading scientific authorities no longer subscribed to catastrophic global warming, why on earth shouldanyone else.


25/100


Empirical Evidence

( ) An ice age is engrained in the history of the world. This is more probable.

Brennan in 1(Phil Brennan, Veteran Journalist at Newsmax, www.newsmax.com, Jan 16, 2001)Since by some calculations the current warm period is about 13,000 years old, the next ice age is overdue."

"Jeffreys notes the fact that back in the 1970s: 'Many scientists warned of a coming ice age, and with good

reason. Although there has been a slight increase in average temperatures during the twentieth century, many

regions of the globe have experienced sustained cooling trends.' The record speaks for itself. In the historyof the Earth, ice ages are the norm. They occur regularly as clockwork and as such, must be regarded as

immutable laws of nature. It would be sheer folly to believe that this law has somehow been repealed. Weare now between 10,800 and 13,000 years removed from the end of the last ice age.Is it not prudent to expect theonset of another ice age? The historical record shows that this allegedly gentle and loving Mother Earth of

ours has demonstrated a tendency to eat her young, and that her appetite for her children grows egregiously

voracious as ice ages approach.

( ) Dinosaurs prove that our ecosystem is fine with another 10 degree increase; warming is

falsely perpertuated as threatening. An ice age beats warming on timeframe, probability

and magnitude.Walker in 2(Bill; Research Associate at the Shay-Wright Lab at UT, The Laissez-Faire Electronic Times;http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com)

The new human powers also defended Earth against the Cold Death that killed Mars. In the time of thedinosaurs, perhaps the peak of biodiversity and ecological exuberance, there was a lot of carbon. The atmospherewas around 1% carbon dioxide. But as the radioactive energy that powers volcanoes runs down, carbon keepsgetting trapped in dead organisms and covered by sediments, leaving the biosphere.During the last Ice Age theCO2 level fell below .02%. This is a serious problem for an ecosystem based on photosynthetic plants.

Someone (perhaps his third grade teacher) should have told Al Gore; when the CO2 concentration is too loweverything photosynthetic dies. In the 1800s, CO2 levels were measured at .028%.Human use of fossil fuelshas raised that to .037%; still far below optimum for plant growth, but better. The slight increase in

greenhouse effect also gives the Earth a little more protection against ending up like Mars, with our CO2lying frozen on the ground. (It is, however, a VERY slight increase in greenhouse effect. Most of Earth'sgreenhouse effect comes from atmospheric water.) The dinosaur eras were 10 degrees warmer than today, andthe ecosystem liked that just fine. It's been less than 15,000 years since the last Ice Age. Anyone concerned

about the ecology as a whole must worry far more about Ice Age than about greenhouse effect.


26/100


Studies/Models Prove

( ) Our model is more accurate. Our means of experimenting is actually more partial

towards warming and proves that our earth is still cooling making an ice age more

probable.


We ran two experiments on the GENESIS 2 climate model (Thompson and Pollard, 1997) as a preliminaryassessment of the overdue glaciation hypothesis. The atmospheric component of the GENESIS 2 model has 18vertical levels and a T31 spectral resolution, which corresponds to a grid resolution of 3.751 for calculations ofdynamics and precipitation. It has a 21 grid over ocean and land surfaces for calculations of surfaceatmosphereinteractions. GENESIS 2 has a 50m static mixed-layer ocean model with parameterized diffusive heat transport,adjusted heat flux in the Norwegian Sea, and interactive sea ice with sea-ice advection forced by interactive surfacewinds and prescribed ocean currents. We chose this model for several reasons: First, the control-case simulation inGENESIS 2 has a climate sensitivity of 2.5 1C for a CO2 doubling, matching closely the central value of the IPCCestimate, which is based upon results from several models (IPCC, 2001).In general, the model control agreesreasonably well with the NCEP climatological means (Kalnay et al., 1996), especially in Arctic regions wherewe want to test for possible increases in snow cover. Sea-ice limits also match the climatology closely (Vavrus,1999). The model has some warm bias over northeastern Canada (upto a few degrees), especially duringwinter, but its simulated snow cover over Northern Hemisphere continents is quite realistic (Thompson andPollard, 1997). Second, by resolving topography at 21 (compared to the 2.751 resolution of T42 models), GENESIS2 sees the higher plateau topography on the northeast Canadian margin that is favorable for snowaccumulation and glacial inception (Andrews and Mahaffy, 1976). Some elevations in the model exceed 550mand reach within 100m of actual values. Third, the model includes an option that permits an internal lapse-

rate adjustment based upon the difference between the model-resolved elevations and the actual topography.

This adjustment brings surface temperature and other surface climate variables even closer to those at actual

elevations.

( ) Our experiments actually underrate the ice growth and exclude feedbacks. This micro-

example still poses threats.


Finally, our snapshot experiment only indicates regions where overall mass-balance conditions would permit

ice growth, but it does not address how growing ice sheets might have evolved through time. Growing ice

sheets have positive feedback effects on local climate, including the elevation/temperature feedback from

vertical ice growth, and the albedo feedback from gradually expanding snowfields and lateral ice flow

(Andrews and Mahaffy, 1976). Future simulations that incorporate ice, vegetation, and ocean feedbacks, nowunderway and planned, are likely to enhance the climatic responses to removal of anthropogenic greenhouse

gases and enable ice sheets to expand beyond their regions of inception.


27/100


Natural Phenomena

( ) Ice age is coming, natural phenomena prove.

Brennan in 97(Phil Brennan, Veteran Journalist, Global Warming or Globaloney? July 1997; http://www.pvbr.com)

The increased weight of the ice pack also depresses the earth's surface at the poles, forcing what John Hamakercalled the underlying "gunk" supporting the surface southward at the North Pole and northward at the SouthPole. This in turn creates increased volcanic activity (and earthquakes) as the gunk is forced to the earth's surface.(Dr. Kaplan wrote that when the "gunk" is forced up through cracks in the ocean bottom west of the U.S. Pacificlitoral, it warms the ocean waters, creating what we call "El Nino.") The resulting volcanic activity heaves greatamounts of volcanic dust into the upper atmosphere, blocking even more sunlight from reaching the polar ice

caps, thus helping the ice and snow cover to become ever larger and heavier. It is a phemomenon that feeds

on itself, and the longer it goes on, the worse it gets. The end results are colder and ever lenthening winters,

more and more tectonic activity wreaking havoc all over the globe, more and more destructive storms, and

natural disasters of an undreamed of magnitude.


28/100


Solar Theory

( ) Muller and MacDonald have disproved all previous theories. An ice age is in fact

cyclical and another one is on the way. This is the most comparative evidence in the round.

Kahn in 97(Jeffrey Kahn, Berkeley Lab, July 11, 1997; http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/ice-age-sediments.html)

In the paper in Science, the researchers compared the geological record to the climactic cycles that would resultfrom their theory and to that of the competing theory, first published in 1912 by Serbian scientist MilutinMilankovitch. Using a geological fingerprinting technique, Muller and MacDonald found that the climacticchangesrecorded in the rocks matched their theory but not that of Milankovitch. Milankovitch said the ice ages arecaused by variations in sunlight hitting the continents. In his theory, the ice ages are linked to "eccentricity," a verygradual, cyclic change in the shape of the Earth's egg-shaped orbit around the sun that completes a cycle roughlyevery 100,000 years. Eccentricity changes the Earth's average annual distance from the sun and slightly alters theamount of sunlight hitting the Earth. To visualize the different astronomical cycle that Muller and MacDonaldhave found to match that of the climatic record, imagine a flat plane with the sun in the center and nine

planets circling close to the plane. In fact, all the planets orbit the sun close to such a fixed orbital plane. The

Earth's orbit slowly tilts out of this plane and then returns. As Muller first calculated in 1993, the cycle of tilt

repeats every 100,000 years.

( ) More evidence.

Kahn in 97(Jeffrey Kahn, Berkeley Lab, July 11, 1997; http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/ice-age-sediments.html)

In their Science paper, Muller and MacDonald examine the geological record of the past million years to see whichof the two 100,000-year cycles (eccentricity or tilt) matched the data. They applied a technique called spectralanalysis to ocean sediments taken from eight locations around the world, examining the oxygen-18 composition.This isotope is generally accepted to reflect the percentage of the Earth's water frozen in ice. Muller andMacDonald's analysis yields "spectral fingerprints" which can be compared to the predictions of the two theories.Their analysis shows a clear pattern: The fingerprints of the ice ages show a single dominant feature, a peak with aperiod of 100,000 years. This precisely matches their theory. The fingerprints do not match the expected trio ofpeaks predicted by the Milankovitch theory. Said Muller, "The mechanism proposed by Milankovitch could beadjusted to explain the cycles of glaciation that occurred prior to one million years ago. However, for the pastmillion years the glacial record is an excellent match to the cycle of tilt."
http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/ice-age-sediments.htmlhttp://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/ice-age-sediments.html


29/100


Solar Theory

( ) Tilts in the Earths orbit and its elliptical patterns make an ice age the most probable

scenario for natural disaster.

Kahn in 97

(Jeffrey Kahn, Berkeley Lab, July 11 1997; http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/ice-age-sediments.html)Recent ice ages -- ten periods of glaciation in the past million years -- are caused by changes in the tilt of theEarth's orbit, according to research published in the July 11 issue of Science magazine. The new analysis also

presents strong evidence that another long prevailing theory does not account for these ice ages. ResearchersRichard A. Muller of the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and Gordon J.MacDonald of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, are co-authors of the Science article.Muller and MacDonald report that cyclical changes in the location of the Earth's orbit cause differing quantities ofextraterrestrial debris to come into the Earth's atmosphere. This, in turn, results in variations of climate on the planet.Said MacDonald, "As the Earth moves up and down in the plane of the solar system, it runs into

ice age - scholars

Documents