Market Outlook Market Outlook Market Outlook Market Outlook

August 23, 2013August 23, 2013August 23, 2013August 23, 2013

How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?How did Global Indices fare in July 2013?

• Most of the global indices ended in green barring a fewMost of the global indices ended in green barring a fewMost of the global indices ended in green barring a fewMost of the global indices ended in green barring a few

5.98 5.934.97

3.66 3.52.86 2.58 2.13

0.9

-0.07 -0.14-1.18 -1.33

2

INDICES OF COUNTRIES: India – S&P BSE Sensex; Russia - RTS Index; France - CAC 40 Index; UK -FTSE, Japan - Nikkei; Hongkong - HangSeng, US - Dow Jones, Singapore - Strait Times, Germany -DAX Index, Malaysia - KLSE, Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index, Indonesia - Jakarta Composite, Taiwan - Taiwan Weighted, China - SSE Composite. Source: Bloomberg

-1.18 -1.33

-3.5

CAC 40 Index

HangSeng

FTSE

DAX Index

Dow Jones

RTS Index

Strait Tim

es

Ibovespa Sao Paulo

Index

Taiw

an W

eighted

SSE Composite Index

KLSE

S&P BSE Sensex

Nikkei

Jakarta Composite

Index

How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?How did Sector Indices fare in July 2013?

• Technology fared better than other sectorsTechnology fared better than other sectorsTechnology fared better than other sectorsTechnology fared better than other sectors

21.1817.26

3 1.34 0.86

-3.17 -5.1

-10.31

3

Bankex - Banks; CG - Capital Goods; CD - Consumer Durables; IT - Information Technology; HC - Health Care, Teck -Technology, Auto – Automobiles. Source: www.bseindia.com - All indices are S&P BSE and returns are for the month of July.

-10.31 -12.14 -12.95 -14.51-17.2

S&P BSE IT

S&P BSE Teck

S&P BSE FMCG

S&P BSE H

C

S&P BSE CD

S&P BSE AUTO

S&P BSE O

il & G

as

S&P BSE Power Index

S&P BSE CG

S&P BSE M

ETAL

S&P BSE Bankex

S&P BSE Realty

Market Cap Market Cap Market Cap Market Cap –––– Performance July 2013Performance July 2013Performance July 2013Performance July 2013

• During the month BSE mid & small cap underperformed During the month BSE mid & small cap underperformed During the month BSE mid & small cap underperformed During the month BSE mid & small cap underperformed BSE 100 & BSE 500BSE 100 & BSE 500BSE 100 & BSE 500BSE 100 & BSE 500

-2.98-3.87

4

Source: www.bseindia.com

-8.72-7.69

S&P BSE 100 S&P BSE 500 S&P BSE MID CAP S&P BSE SMALL CAP

Month Return – July 2013

Key Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity InvestmentsKey Facets of Equity Investments

• Inflation is within control

•Current Account Deficit (CAD) is improving

•Fiscal Deficit is deteriorating

•Growth is at decade’s low

EconomicsEconomicsEconomicsEconomics

•Domestic investor sentiments are very low

•FIIs have been selling

•Hence, we are positive on this indicatorSentimentsSentimentsSentimentsSentiments

5

•Barring a few stocks, we believe valuations are attractiveValuationsValuationsValuationsValuations

•US Fed Tapering

•Crude Prices

•Monetary easing by RBI post rupee stabilizing

•Political developments

TriggersTriggersTriggersTriggers

WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013WPI Inflation has decelerated since Oct ‘12, barring July 2013

• Inflation data accelerated on account of Inflation data accelerated on account of Inflation data accelerated on account of Inflation data accelerated on account of

• Higher food prices Higher food prices Higher food prices Higher food prices

• Impact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuel Impact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuel Impact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuel Impact of pass through of rupee deprecation as reflected in fuel prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)prices adjustments and core WPI (Wholesale Price Inflation)

6

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research

A Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD PositionA Declining Trade Deficit will improve CAD Position

• Trade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gain Trade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gain Trade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gain Trade deficit declined by 30%YoY in July versus a gain of 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bnof 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bnof 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bnof 8.9% in June; came in at USD12.3bn

• Imports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and gold Imports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and gold Imports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and gold Imports declined in July, led by a decline in oil and gold imports imports imports imports

• We tend to focus more on negatives than positivesWe tend to focus more on negatives than positivesWe tend to focus more on negatives than positivesWe tend to focus more on negatives than positives

7

Source: RBI, Morgan Stanley

Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?Fiscal Consolidation at Risk?

• Government expenditure growth accelerates above Government expenditure growth accelerates above Government expenditure growth accelerates above Government expenditure growth accelerates above budget targetbudget targetbudget targetbudget target

• Tax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimatesTax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimatesTax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimatesTax revenue growth continues to lag budget estimates

• Risk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline back Risk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline back Risk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline back Risk of rating downgrade will bring fiscal discipline back on trackon trackon trackon track

8

Source: CGA, Morgan Stanley Research

India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (India Real GDP Growth (YoYYoYYoYYoY%)%)%)%)

• Growth is very low and far below potentialGrowth is very low and far below potentialGrowth is very low and far below potentialGrowth is very low and far below potential

• Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?Is it fair to lose hope on India’s Growth Revival?

9

Source: Bloomberg , Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research GDP: Gross Domestic Product

Net FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity MarketNet FII & DII Flows in the Indian Equity Market

• The month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIsThe month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIsThe month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIsThe month saw selling pressure both from FIIs and DIIs

10

Source: Bloomberg, Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research, FII – Foreign Institutional Investor, DII – Domestic Institutional Investor, US$ m (Million)

SENSEX SENSEX SENSEX SENSEX ---- 1111----Year Forward P/EYear Forward P/EYear Forward P/EYear Forward P/E

• While Valuations are at a discount to averages, both While Valuations are at a discount to averages, both While Valuations are at a discount to averages, both While Valuations are at a discount to averages, both SENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘BiSENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘BiSENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘BiSENSEX & Nifty suffer from ‘Bi----polar disorders’polar disorders’polar disorders’polar disorders’

11

Source: CLSA, P/E – Price to Earnings

Triggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian EconomyTriggers for the Indian Economy

• Potential US Fed TaperingPotential US Fed TaperingPotential US Fed TaperingPotential US Fed Tapering

• Lower Crude Prices Lower Crude Prices Lower Crude Prices Lower Crude Prices

• Improvement in Current Account and Trade deficitImprovement in Current Account and Trade deficitImprovement in Current Account and Trade deficitImprovement in Current Account and Trade deficit

• INR stabilizing; measures from RBIINR stabilizing; measures from RBIINR stabilizing; measures from RBIINR stabilizing; measures from RBI

12

Monsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been ExcellentMonsoon has been Excellent

• Spatial distribution is also much better than last yearSpatial distribution is also much better than last yearSpatial distribution is also much better than last yearSpatial distribution is also much better than last year

• Another key positive being ignored completelyAnother key positive being ignored completelyAnother key positive being ignored completelyAnother key positive being ignored completely

13

Source: IMD

Which Asset Classes will outperform Global Equities Which Asset Classes will outperform Global Equities Which Asset Classes will outperform Global Equities Which Asset Classes will outperform Global Equities –––– 2013?2013?2013?2013?

• The survey below was carried out in July 2013The survey below was carried out in July 2013The survey below was carried out in July 2013The survey below was carried out in July 2013

14

Disclaimer: The contents of this slide are based on an independent research published by a third party. The AMC / Mutual Fund / Trustees do not assure the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the same.

Source: Citi Global Research

Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?Global Equities: The Magnet for New Money?

• Results of Client surveys in US Results of Client surveys in US Results of Client surveys in US Results of Client surveys in US

• Suggests people have been underSuggests people have been underSuggests people have been underSuggests people have been under----invested in the stock invested in the stock invested in the stock invested in the stock marketmarketmarketmarket

• Sitting on too much cash Sitting on too much cash Sitting on too much cash Sitting on too much cash

• See the US as the most preferred market to investSee the US as the most preferred market to investSee the US as the most preferred market to investSee the US as the most preferred market to invest

• ‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus ‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus ‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus ‘Go Long America’ is gradually becoming a consensus mindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindsetmindset

• Europe has truly turned the corner versus bottoming outEurope has truly turned the corner versus bottoming outEurope has truly turned the corner versus bottoming outEurope has truly turned the corner versus bottoming out

15

Disclaimer: The contents of this slide are based on an independent research published by a third party. The AMC / Mutual Fund / Trustees do not assure the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the same.

Source: Citi Global Research

Outlook for IndiaOutlook for IndiaOutlook for IndiaOutlook for India

• Good monsoon should support agricultural output and Good monsoon should support agricultural output and Good monsoon should support agricultural output and Good monsoon should support agricultural output and we may see food inflation on a declining trendwe may see food inflation on a declining trendwe may see food inflation on a declining trendwe may see food inflation on a declining trend

• CAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold importsCAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold importsCAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold importsCAD is likely to narrow down on declining gold imports

• Better agricultural growth and increased government Better agricultural growth and increased government Better agricultural growth and increased government Better agricultural growth and increased government spending along with major economic reforms may help spending along with major economic reforms may help spending along with major economic reforms may help spending along with major economic reforms may help a gradual economic recoverya gradual economic recoverya gradual economic recoverya gradual economic recovery

• Markets are likely to remain volatile on account of Markets are likely to remain volatile on account of Markets are likely to remain volatile on account of Markets are likely to remain volatile on account of prepreprepre----election period and global cueselection period and global cueselection period and global cueselection period and global cues

16

Product RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct Recommendations

• Lump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out of Lump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out of Lump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out of Lump sum investments in products that seek to benefit out of Volatility Volatility Volatility Volatility ----

• ICICI Prudential Equity ICICI Prudential Equity ICICI Prudential Equity ICICI Prudential Equity –––– Volatility Advantage FundVolatility Advantage FundVolatility Advantage FundVolatility Advantage Fund

• ICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan

• ICICI Prudential Balanced FundICICI Prudential Balanced FundICICI Prudential Balanced FundICICI Prudential Balanced Fund

• Investments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our core Investments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our core Investments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our core Investments through STP / SIP over next 12 months in our core equity products equity products equity products equity products ----equity products equity products equity products equity products ----

• ICICI Prudential Discovery FundICICI Prudential Discovery FundICICI Prudential Discovery FundICICI Prudential Discovery Fund

• ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity FundICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity FundICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity FundICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund

• ICICI Prudential Top 100 FundICICI Prudential Top 100 FundICICI Prudential Top 100 FundICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund

• SIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICI SIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICI SIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICI SIP / STP in ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund & ICICI Prudential Infrastructure FundPrudential Infrastructure FundPrudential Infrastructure FundPrudential Infrastructure Fund

17

None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and Investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.

18

Product Labels for Equity Product Recommendations on Slide 17

19

Product Labels for Equity Product Recommendations on Slide 17

DEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEWDEBT MARKET OVERVIEW

20

Measures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatilityMeasures to contain volatility

• The RBI & the government have taken many steps to try The RBI & the government have taken many steps to try The RBI & the government have taken many steps to try The RBI & the government have taken many steps to try and contain INR volatilityand contain INR volatilityand contain INR volatilityand contain INR volatility

• These measures have not yet yielded desired These measures have not yet yielded desired These measures have not yet yielded desired These measures have not yet yielded desired resultsresultsresultsresults

21

Source: RBI, MOSL

INR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two monthsINR Volatility has increase in the last two months

22

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL

Impact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s MeasuresImpact of RBI’s Measures

• Unprecedented liquidity tightnessUnprecedented liquidity tightnessUnprecedented liquidity tightnessUnprecedented liquidity tightness

• Short term rates have shot upShort term rates have shot upShort term rates have shot upShort term rates have shot up

• Even rates at long end of yield curve had spikedEven rates at long end of yield curve had spikedEven rates at long end of yield curve had spikedEven rates at long end of yield curve had spiked

• Banks have already started raising their base ratesBanks have already started raising their base ratesBanks have already started raising their base ratesBanks have already started raising their base rates

InstrumentInstrumentInstrumentInstrument 11 July 201311 July 201311 July 201311 July 2013 21 August 201321 August 201321 August 201321 August 2013

23

Source: Crisil

InstrumentInstrumentInstrumentInstrument 11 July 201311 July 201311 July 201311 July 2013 21 August 201321 August 201321 August 201321 August 2013

3 Month T-Bill 7.46% 10.98%

1 Year T-Bill 7.44% 9.94%

10 Year GOI 7.47% 8.41%

Factors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effectiveFactors that made RBI measures less effective

• Since JunSince JunSince JunSince Jun----13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the 13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the 13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the 13, FIIs have started withdrawing from the Indian debt marketsIndian debt marketsIndian debt marketsIndian debt markets

• This trend has continued, though it has moderatedThis trend has continued, though it has moderatedThis trend has continued, though it has moderatedThis trend has continued, though it has moderated

• As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside, As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside, As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside, As a result of the US macro surprising on the upside, USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the USD has strengthened across the board weakening the INRINRINRINR

• Sell off across Emerging Market CurrenciesSell off across Emerging Market CurrenciesSell off across Emerging Market CurrenciesSell off across Emerging Market Currencies

• Hence, this problem is not restricted to the INRHence, this problem is not restricted to the INRHence, this problem is not restricted to the INRHence, this problem is not restricted to the INR

24

RBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond MarketsRBIs focus has shifted to Stabilise Bond Markets

• Open Market Purchases of long dated GOpen Market Purchases of long dated GOpen Market Purchases of long dated GOpen Market Purchases of long dated G----secssecssecssecs worth worth worth worth `̀̀̀ 8000 Cr on 8000 Cr on 8000 Cr on 8000 Cr on Aug 23Aug 23Aug 23Aug 23

• SLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time Liabilities SLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time Liabilities SLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time Liabilities SLR holding at 24.5% of Bank’s Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of (NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of (NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of (NDTL) in held to maturity (HTM) category (vs. earlier requirement of 23% over time)23% over time)23% over time)23% over time)

Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for • Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for Transfer of SLR securities to the HTM category from available for sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5% sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5% sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5% sale (AFS)/held for trading (HFT) categories up to the limit of 24.5% as a oneas a oneas a oneas a one----time measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the first time measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the first time measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the first time measure at prices as of July 15, the date of the first RBI actionRBI actionRBI actionRBI action

• Can spread net depreciation, if any, on account of markCan spread net depreciation, if any, on account of markCan spread net depreciation, if any, on account of markCan spread net depreciation, if any, on account of mark----totototo----market market market market (MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories (MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories (MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories (MTM) valuation of securities held under the AFS/HFT categories over the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalmentsover the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalmentsover the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalmentsover the remaining period of the current FY in equal instalments

25

What could probably help?What could probably help?What could probably help?What could probably help?

• Go beyond short term measuresGo beyond short term measuresGo beyond short term measuresGo beyond short term measures

• Attract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate the Attract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate the Attract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate the Attract large capital flows in the country to ameliorate the current INR weaknesscurrent INR weaknesscurrent INR weaknesscurrent INR weakness

• More direct measures to stem capital flow and reduce More direct measures to stem capital flow and reduce More direct measures to stem capital flow and reduce More direct measures to stem capital flow and reduce current account deficitcurrent account deficitcurrent account deficitcurrent account deficit

Money flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economy• Money flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economyMoney flows always chases a high growth economy

• Further slowdown in the economy must be arrestedFurther slowdown in the economy must be arrestedFurther slowdown in the economy must be arrestedFurther slowdown in the economy must be arrested

• Focus on growth by reducing interest rates once INR Focus on growth by reducing interest rates once INR Focus on growth by reducing interest rates once INR Focus on growth by reducing interest rates once INR stabilizesstabilizesstabilizesstabilizes

26

Market Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issueMarket Psychology seems to be an issue

• Current situation unlike previous onesCurrent situation unlike previous onesCurrent situation unlike previous onesCurrent situation unlike previous ones

• Past 2Past 2Past 2Past 2----Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12 Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12 Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12 Month trade deficit have fallen to US$12 bnbnbnbn per per per per month vs. FY13 average of US$16 month vs. FY13 average of US$16 month vs. FY13 average of US$16 month vs. FY13 average of US$16 bnbnbnbn per month and peak per month and peak per month and peak per month and peak level of US$21 level of US$21 level of US$21 level of US$21 bnbnbnbn

• India’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) mean India’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) mean India’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) mean India’s high ‘invisibles’ (services exports, mainly) mean CAD decline is even sharperCAD decline is even sharperCAD decline is even sharperCAD decline is even sharper

• CAD of US$35 CAD of US$35 CAD of US$35 CAD of US$35 bnbnbnbn is possible if IT services exports rise 7% is possible if IT services exports rise 7% is possible if IT services exports rise 7% is possible if IT services exports rise 7% • CAD of US$35 CAD of US$35 CAD of US$35 CAD of US$35 bnbnbnbn is possible if IT services exports rise 7% is possible if IT services exports rise 7% is possible if IT services exports rise 7% is possible if IT services exports rise 7% YoYYoYYoYYoY keeping all other things unchangedkeeping all other things unchangedkeeping all other things unchangedkeeping all other things unchanged

• AT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with just AT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with just AT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with just AT <2% of GDP, this is acceptable and fundable with just FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)FDI and NRI deposits (Please see table on next slide)

• Fiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss of Fiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss of Fiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss of Fiscal & Monetary Policy must counter loss of confidence in the INR proactivelyconfidence in the INR proactivelyconfidence in the INR proactivelyconfidence in the INR proactively

27

Data Source: CMIE, Min. of Commerce, Credit Suisse

Our ViewOur ViewOur ViewOur View

Key FacetsKey FacetsKey FacetsKey Facets IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator Last ReportedLast ReportedLast ReportedLast ReportedScore 1Score 1Score 1Score 1----5555

(Bad (Bad (Bad (Bad ---- Good)Good)Good)Good)

EconomicsEconomicsEconomicsEconomics

CAD / Trade Deficit 12.27 US$ bn. 4

Fiscal 48% of budgeted estimates 3

Inflation Exp sub 5% in medium term 4

Growth Exp sub 5.5% in medium term 4

Liquidity 38718 Cr 1

3m Bill 11.08% 5

1yr Bill 10.09% 5

2yr GOI 9.23% 5

28

Disclaimer: Scores provided above are based on fund managers views and analysis. Although, these scores are arrived at after necessary analysis, there is no guarantee/ assurance that the analysis is correct or accurate and the indicators would be beneficial for any security/sector or economy. These are purely for reference. Source: RBI

ValuationValuationValuationValuation

2yr GOI 9.23% 5

6-8yr GOI 8.65% 5

10yr GOI 8.25% 5

12-13yr GOI 8.65% 5

15-19 yr GOI 8.70% 5

SentimentsSentimentsSentimentsSentiments

PSU participation Very Low against average 5

Market Volumes Very Low against average 5

Market Flows Very Low against average 5

TriggersTriggersTriggersTriggersINR stops depreciating, Crude Oil Prices, US Fed tapering of QE3, GOI Economic

reforms, RBI’s announcement on bank HTM,

OutlookOutlookOutlookOutlook

• Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013Average inflation for FY 2013----14 expected to be around 14 expected to be around 14 expected to be around 14 expected to be around 5%5%5%5%

• Lack of investment pick up and moderating demand Lack of investment pick up and moderating demand Lack of investment pick up and moderating demand Lack of investment pick up and moderating demand side pressures could result in an average GDP growth side pressures could result in an average GDP growth side pressures could result in an average GDP growth side pressures could result in an average GDP growth range of 5range of 5range of 5range of 5----5.5% for FY5.5% for FY5.5% for FY5.5% for FY----2014201420142014

• Potential Risk of Rating downgrade may make Potential Risk of Rating downgrade may make Potential Risk of Rating downgrade may make Potential Risk of Rating downgrade may make government focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal disciplinegovernment focus on fiscal discipline

• Growth remains below potential and RBI may adopt Growth remains below potential and RBI may adopt Growth remains below potential and RBI may adopt Growth remains below potential and RBI may adopt growth supportive monetary policygrowth supportive monetary policygrowth supportive monetary policygrowth supportive monetary policy

• Prolonged period of rate cuts (2Prolonged period of rate cuts (2Prolonged period of rate cuts (2Prolonged period of rate cuts (2----3 years) once Rupee 3 years) once Rupee 3 years) once Rupee 3 years) once Rupee stabilizesstabilizesstabilizesstabilizes

29

Product RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct RecommendationsProduct Recommendations

• Invest in duration with 24 months and above horizonInvest in duration with 24 months and above horizonInvest in duration with 24 months and above horizonInvest in duration with 24 months and above horizon

• ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt FundICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt FundICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt FundICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund

• ICICI Prudential Income PlanICICI Prudential Income PlanICICI Prudential Income PlanICICI Prudential Income Plan

• Actively managed opportunistic Fund with Total Return Actively managed opportunistic Fund with Total Return Actively managed opportunistic Fund with Total Return Actively managed opportunistic Fund with Total Return biasbiasbiasbiasbiasbiasbiasbias

• ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund

• Accrual strategy Accrual strategy Accrual strategy Accrual strategy

• ICICI Prudential Regular Savings FundICICI Prudential Regular Savings FundICICI Prudential Regular Savings FundICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund

30

None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the Investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.

31

Product Labels for Debt Product Recommendations on Slide 30

DisclaimersDisclaimersDisclaimersDisclaimers

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

All figures and other data given in this document are as on 31st July 2013 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited.

Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

Data source: Bloomberg, except as mentioned specifically.

Disclaimer:Disclaimer:Disclaimer:Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc.

ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner.

Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.

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