idaho barley commission report · 2018 idaho barley report kelly olson, [email protected]...
TRANSCRIPT
Key Points
SMALLER U.S. and World Barley Crops
MY 2017/18 Barley Market Fundamentals
Beer Demand Outlook
Food Barley Outlook
2018 Crop Outlook
2017 Idaho Barley Crop
Harvested area 510,000 acres -12%
Production 48.45 million bu -22%
Ave. Yields 95 bpa -11%
2017-18 Idaho barley farm-gate value - $265 million -1%(UI 2017 Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture)
Idaho barley represents 34% of total U.S. barley production
Source: USDA Small Grains Report, Sept. 30, 2017
Grain Price Outlook2017/18 Global Grain S&D
Source: USDA WASDE, Jan. 12, 2018
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 MY 2017/18
Production Use
578
Ending Stocks
627653
643
million metric tons
2017/18 Barley MarketWASDE, Jan. 12, 2017
MY 2017/18 MY 2016/17 MY 2015/16
Area harvested (mil. acres)
2.0 2.6 3.2
Yield (bu/Ac) 72.6 77.9 69.1
Beginning Stocks (mbu) 106 102 79
Production 142 200 218
Imports 15 10 19
Total Supply 263 312 315
Feed 35 39 44
Food/malting 162 162 158
Exports 5 4 11
Total Use 202 205 213
Ending 61 106 102
Ave. price $4.15-4.85 $4.96 $5.52
-9%
-29%
-42%
20U.S. Beer Demand
2016 Craft Beer Sales
+6.2%12.3% share
Percent Change
in Volume
Calendar
Year
2017 (Dec1)
Calendar
Year
2016
Calendar
Year
2015
Calendar
Year
2014
Calendar
Year
2013
Total Supply -1.7% +0.0% -0.1% +0.4% -1.2%
Domestics -0.8% -1.2% -0.7% -1.3%
Imports +6.8% +6.2% +6.9% -0.6%
Steady growth in food barley demand
Barley’s Health & Wellness
▪ Reduces cholesterol and associated
risk of heart disease
▪ Regulates blood-glucose levels,
reduces glucose intolerance and
insulin resistance
▪ Helps with weight control
▪ Improves digestive health.
Barley’s Health & Wellness
Top 100 Foods for Alzeimer Prevention
University of Idaho Healthy Diabetes Plate
20Food Barley
Products
2018 New Crop Outlook
• North Idaho malting & food barley contracts steady to higher.
• U.S. winter wheat acres pegged at 32.61 million, lowest since 1909.
• U.S. corn acres projected to be 1% lower.
• Drought expanding across key HRW growing areas.
NWS BOISE
La Nina Winter Outlook
Wintertime La Nina Pattern
• Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean
• La Niña conditions are present
• La Niña is favored to persist (~85-95% chance) through winter 2018, with transition to ENSO neutral by spring.La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*
• Idaho Grain Market Report published weekly by IBC at www.barley.Idaho.gov
• Links to recorded WEBINARS…▪ Five Common Mistakes in Grain Marketing featuring Ed Usset,
University of Minnesota Center for Farm Financial Management. ▪Winter 2018 Weather & Water Outlook featuring Troy
Lindquist, NWS Senior Hydrologist. ▪How to Write a Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Plan, featuring Ed
Usset, Univ. of Minnesota.
• GeoGrain Market App – working with app developer to add Idaho elevator cash prices. Offers terrific grain market optimizer tools.
IBC GROWER EDUCATION
Thank YouKelly Olson, 208.334.2090,
208.409.9165 cell
www.barley.idaho.gov