108319 _Macros

Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company

Identify

Innovate

Implement

Impact

Predicting Needs and Behaviors to drive Growth and Innovation

Presentation at IIeX ConferenceNov 14, 2016

Eugene Roytburg, Ph.D.Managing Partner, 4i, Inc.

Bring Science into Business of Future™

ANALYTICS

About me...Eugene Roytburg, Ph.D. Managing Partner at 4i, Inc.

• Overall Background• Thought leader in bringing Science, Advanced Analytics, and Consulting to business problem solving and decision making

• Over 25 years of experience of developing predictive and foresight analytics based solutions, processes and technologies to address variety of problems, from engineering to social to business

• Managing Partner of 4i, growth strategy and analytics firm helping clients identify, develop and accelerate profitable growth

•Ph.Ds. in Systems Engineering from Minnesota and Mathematics from Moldova University. Studied MBA at Kellogg Graduate School of Management, emphasis on strategy, operation and innovation

• Work Experience • 25 years of corporate (CNH, SPSS, Nielsen), academic (Russia, Moldova) and consulting experience (Booz, A.T. Kearney, 4i)

• Worked with more than 60 companies on key issues ranging from market growth strategy, marketing, innovation, demand planning, analytics and data strategies, transformation and process development

•Frequent presenter and keynote speaker on same topics at more than 15 conferences annually

Could we have predicted these products?

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So what do we need for prediction?

Where we want to be?

Where we are now and how did we get here?

How we should get there?

(A)

(B)

(C)

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We need to understand needs and behaviors

Behavior

What motivates us to act

Needs

How we act to satisfy our need

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We know all needs are not equal. We began with basic needs and then…we wanted more!

Biological and Physiological needsbasic life needs - air, food, drink, shelter, warmth, sex, sleep, etc.

Safety needsprotection, security, order, law, limits, stability, etc

Esteem needsachievement, status, responsibility, reputation

Belongingness and Love needsfamily, affection, relationships, work group, etc

Self-actualizationpersonal growth and fulfillment

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So what we need to accomplish?

Time, Year

Closenesshair length after cut, um

200

600

400

1815

Straight steel razor

100

1900

Gillette’s safety razor with double edge disposable and replaceable blade

1960

Long lasting stainless steel blade

1970

Twin-blade razorMulti blade

20202010

No feel of hair – Perfect Closeness

Maximizing closeness

Shaving Example

?

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How we can achieve that goal?

Shaving Example

Y

X

Closeness of Shave

# of Blades

Closeness of Shave = f (# of Blades)

Goal

1 5 10

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But…what about Skin Moisture, Hair Moisture, Initial hair Length?

Hair RemovingCloseness of Shave

Initial length of hair Hair angle

Skin moisture

Hair moistureHair density# of Blades

Skin and Hair Moisture are most significant

Factor SignificanceSkin moisture

Skin surfaceHair density

Initial hair length

Number of Blades

Hair moisture

Shaving ExampleAnalytical Formulation

Closeness of Shave = f (# of Blades, Skin Moisture, Surface, Initial length, …)

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And…Voila! Yes, we predicted this!

Blade

Skin Moisturizer and Conditioner

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Ok but…are those only needs?

Skin Environment

Society

Human

Protects body and preventsentry of micro-organisms

Extension of skin with no sensory organs, assists in appearance

Helps in shaping individuals,their appearance and habits

A determining factor of future. Affected by the human behavior

Has an overriding interest of all theother components of the shaving system.May not completely understand the objectives of other components and their purpose

Hair

Shaving Need System

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Each Shaving Need System’s components has its own objectives and needs

Shaving Need System

Shaving System Components Component Objectives Desirable Conditions (Needs)

Hair • To grow • To protect human body from heat and cold

• No obstruction to active growth• To be left uncut

Skin • To protect the human body• To provide sense if touch, feel, pressure,

heat etc.• To prevent micro-organisms from entering

the body• To stay healthy

• To be kept clean from dust and dead cells• To be kept moist at all times• To be allowed to breathe freely

Society • To determine the norms for public behavior • Humans need to follow an acceptable etiquette

Environment • To provide life support for all organisms• To enable different forms of life to live in

harmony• To provide an ideal situation for growth and

reproduction of different living organisms

• No littering of unwanted material• No pollution that may prevent life forms from

growing

Human • To reproduce and grow• Self-actualization

• Basic, aesthetic, psychological, social and Economic needs

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Predicting most “attractive” need combinations that will most probably occur in future…

Need Combination Prioritization

Needs CombinationsMet Vs Unmet

Scale 1 to 51- Met; 5 - Unmet

Conflict LevelScale 1 to 5

1- high; 5- low

ImportanceScale 1 to 5

1 - low; 5- highTotal

N1. No Obstruction to active hair growth

N2. Skin needs to be free of dead cells and dirt

N3. Shaving system needs to be environmentally safe

N4. Closeness

N5. Lack of nicks and cuts

N1N2 5 5 2 12N1N3 4 5 2 11N1N4 3 4 3 10N1N5 4 5 2 11N2N3 5 5 4 14N2N4 5 5 5 15N2N5 5 3 4 12N3N4 3 5 5 13N3N5 3 5 5 13N4N5 3 3 5 11N1N2N3 5 3 3 11N1N2N4 4 3 3 10N1N2N5 4 4 4 12N1N3N4 5 3 4 12N1N3N5 4 4 3 11N1N4N5 5 3 3 11N2N4N5 5 3 5 13N2N3N4 5 5 4 14N2N3N5 4 3 5 12N3N4N5 4 3 5 12N1N2N3N4 5 3 3 11N1N2N3N5 5 3 3 11N2N3N4N5 5 3 5 13N1N2N4N5 5 2 3 10N1N2N3N4N5 5 1 3 9

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…will help map future innovations

Needs driven Future Innovation Directions

2015 2020 2030 2040

N1N2

N1N2N3

N1N2N3N4

N1N2N3N4N5

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Staying within the realm of current view of needs will bring only INCREMENTAL improvements; identifying future needs will bring BREAKTHROUGH opportunities

Needs Definition Matrix

Broad

•Human Needs - Technologies that will assist young people in learning best shaving techniques

•Shaving System – skin improvement through combining shaving with exfoliation

Examples

Tech

nolo

gy S

pect

rum

Broad (Shaving System

Needs)

Sourcing Initiative

Human Needs

Narrow (shaving-specific)

Narrow (Consumer

Needs)

Current View

Expanding Needs Spectrum

Expanding Technology Spectrum

I Frontier

II Frontier

III Frontier

Area of Break-Through

Opportunity

Let’s look at other examples4sight by 4i™

When you feel good, you look good!

Feel Good

Look Good

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Oral Care Stakeholder Needs

SocietyHelps in shaping individuals,their appearance and habits

EnvironmentA determining factor of future.

Affected by the human behavior

PlaqueCovers teeth and provides shelter to bacteria affecting oral health

SalivaProcesses food, makes chewing easier, helps swallowing food

LipsFirst check on food, protect teeth, smile

HumanMain interest in tooth maintenance an usage

May not completely understand the objectives of other components and their purpose

Oral Care Needs

SystemsTastes food and carries it for the tooth to chew, cleans the

tooth

Tongue

TeethChews food and contribute to the

overall look of the smile

GumsHold and surround the teeth, dampen

the shocks

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We could have predicted these products!

Superbrush designed to simultaneously clean the outer, inner and chewing surfaces of teeth

Quickie Mouth Cleaner. it allows to scrub away decaying food particles from the teeth and gums promoting better dental hygiene by reducing bacteria

Solar toothbrush. The solar toothbrush works by releasing electrons that then react with the saliva in the mouth and help to breakdown plaque

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Lips Improvement toothpaste

Food Need Systems…

Environment

Society

Human

Helps in shaping individuals,their appearance, eating habits

A determining factor of future. Affected by the human behavior

Has an overriding interest of all theother components of the eating system.May not completely understand the objectives of other components and their purpose

Human Body

Requires a certain combination of food elements to optimally grow, build new cells with minimum impact on health conditions

FamilyAs a group might have a combination of conflicting food consumption needs but is an ultimate food consumer unit

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…and how they are all satisfied, will point to various opportunities…

NEEDS

CATEGORY TYPE ORDER**HUMAN SYSTEM*

Food needs 1st

Health needs 2nd

Service needs 1st

Esthetics Needs 3rd

Economical needs 1st

Learning needs 3rd

Entertainment needs 2nd

FOOD SYSTEM

Human being needs 1st

Human body needs 2nd

Family needs 1st

Societal needs 3rd

Environment needs 3rd

Food Need Systems and Gaps Analysis

INN

OV

AT

ION

OPP

OR

TU

NIT

Y

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Educational Books…

…to drive incremental and potentially revolutionary innovations

Chocolate Chess…as Happy Meal

Current and… …potentially future ideas?

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You just saw the example of … Foresight AnalyticsTM

Looking into the future… …more predictably…

…sustainable growth

…creates…

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Foresight Analytics Principals

Company performance is governed by fundamental laws that can be recognized, learnt and utilized to drive predictable, optimized and sustainable results

Company Performance is PREDICTABLE

Consumer Needs and Behaviors are PREDICTABLE

GROWTH is PREDICTABLE

Consumer needs and behaviors are evolving in the certain pattern influenced by market societal, environmental and human forces

Company growth is function of understanding fundamentals behind company performance and changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics

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Companies need to move to forward looking ways of assessing their actions…

Foresight Analytics

Business Knowledge

Historic Data

Business Knowledge

Historic Data

Traditional Approach

Forward-looking Growth Strategy

Past-Based Growth Strategy

Foresight Approach

Future Growth DriversFuture Trends

Future Need StatesFuture Growth

Past Growth DriversCurrent Trends

Current Need StatesPast Growth

Strategic Foresight Strategic Insight

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…driven by foresight analytics

Traditional Analytics •Historic Growth Performance

•Marketing Analytics•Price/promo Analytics

Foresight – Future Growth

Foresight Analytics•Trend4sight•Need4sight•Consumer4sight•Predictive Market Growth•Predictive Innovation•Predictive Marketing Foresight

Data

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Insights

PastFuture

Last example…Pets Needs Systems

PetsEnvironment

Society

Pet Owner

Helps in shaping individuals,their appearance and habits

A determining factor of future. Affected by the human behavior

Family

Pet food Need Systems

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And here is our best idea so far…

Dog Beer!