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Competetiveness of Deepwater TechnologyGOT/FINEP/IBP Workshop, Rio Oil and Gas, 27 October 2016

IEA Global Technology Collaboration – Context & FocusJostein Dahl Karlsen

Chair, IEA Gas and Oil Technologies Collaboration Program, GOT

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Switzerland Norway Netherlands Spain 2015

2016

Founding members

conventional conventional

conventional

Unconventional unconventional

Conv.

Unconv

Conv.

Unconv.Unconv.

New members

TCPs

- IEA's new strategic labelling

Fatih Birol:"No quick fix to long term energy

challenges"IEA Global Request

- Share resources and accellerate results!

GOT and IEA's Technology Network

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Challenges

Climate Low oil price High cost level

We need more energy and

less emissions

The low oil price is affecting the

whole industry

In order to get the oil up, costs

must go down

Oil and Gas & Energy Context

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Policies and frameworks

Competence

Technology

Key GOT Dimensions – 1)

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Key GOT Dimensions cont. Innovation chains

SME's

R & D

Community

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GOT Global Technology Outreach

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Deepwater in oil and gas E & P

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Offshore & deepwater cost 2000 - 2014

Cost reductions

2015 -'16

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Global energy supply cost towards 2040 by source

Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%20%

40%

60%

Solar PV Onshorewind

Efficient industrial heat production

Efficientlighting

Upstream oil and gas

Source: IEA WEO 2015

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Projected oil supply mix 2040

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Shale high case scenario based on industry expectations:

- Some four billion boe per year from the most expensive sourcesmight be outperformed by shale

Source: Rystad Energy UCube

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Onshore

Build-up

Plateau

Decline

Tail-end

Oil sands

Tight oilOffshore

Baseline production scenario: Global oil and gas production by source

Billion boe per year

1

2

History

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Next generation deepwater technology - a need for enhanced implementation woldwide

GOM

NCS

West

Africa

Brazil

Undiscovered volumes > 3000m:

44 bill. boe

0-150 meters

150-1500 meters

1500-3000 meters

11 % Need for new technology

Need for globalization

of existing technology

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Inte

gra

ted

Syste

ms A

pp

roach

Continuous

Project

Learnings

New Technology

Development &

Implementation- DW Drilling Technology- Tension Leg Platform - Semi, Spar, FPSO- Steel Risers- Subsea standardization- Flow Assurance

Co

st

Ind

ex

($10

00

/BE

QD

)

FID Year

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

Co

st

Ind

ex

($10

00

/BE

QD

)

FID Year

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

Co

st

Ind

ex

($10

00

/BE

QD

)

FID Year

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

Co

st

Ind

ex

($10

00

/BE

QD

)

FID Year

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

AugerSchiehallon

(BP)

Ram-

Powell

Mars

Ursa

Brutus

Bonga

NaKika

Holstein

(BP)

Source: Shell

….deliver world class project

performance and continuous

improvement.

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Petrobras deepwater legend

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Processing

Wellstream transfer > 200 km

Power Supply

Well Systems

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The combined value of advanced subsea technology

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Today's event

Topics

• Political perspectives

• Industry key notes

Topics

• Towards 30 USD

break-even cost

• The innovation

chain of the future

Panel Session:

- Transitional changes in the E & P Innovation Chain

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The vision - more than one part lifting ...

Thank you