© OECD/IEA 2017

IEA Technology Roadmap: Delivery sustainable bioenergy Adam Brown and Pharoah Le Feuvre

Webinar, 21st February 2018

IEA

Produced in association with

© IEA 2017

Sustainable bioenergy

Bioenergy now needs a new impetus based on up to date evidence and experience

•  Bioenergy can be a major part of a low carbon energy system, providing low-carbon transport fuels, electricity, and heat as part of a growing bioeconomy.

•  To play these roles bioenergy must be deployed sustainably.

•  But bioenergy is complex and sometimes controversial. General statements and oversimplification are unhelpful.

•  There is growing consensus on what constitutes sustainable best practice.

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Modern bioenergy accounted for around half of renewables in final energy consumption in 2015, a contribution five times greater than wind and solar PV combined. However, growth rates vary by

sector.

Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption 2015 (left) and growth by sector 2008-15 (right)

Bioenergy is already a significant global energy source

0

100

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Secto

r gro

wth (

index

ed 20

08 =

100)

Biofuels for transport Modern bioenergy for heatBioenergy for electricity

Modern bioenergy for heat Biofuels for transportBioenergy for electricity

Total: 17 EJ

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There is a disconnect between current market growth in all three sectors and the rate of deployment needed to deliver the roadmap vision.

Contribution of bioenergy per sector in 2015 and 2DS requirements in 2025

Accelerated bioenergy deployment needed to keep apace with the 2DS

2DS = 2 degrees scenario

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18

2015 2025 2DS 2015 2025 2DS 2015 2025 2DSBioenergy for electricity Biofuels for transport Biomass heat

EJ

Conventional biofuels Advanced biofuels Heat industry Heat buildings

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To deliver the roadmap vision bioenergy deployment will need to expand geographically, be utilised in a wider array of industries and move beyond use in road to aviation and marine transport.

Global biofuels production 2006-16 (left) and bioenergy within industrial final energy consumption 2015 (right)

Expansion of bioenergy into new countries and sectors also needed

Paper, pulp and print Food and tobaccoWood and wood products Non-metallic mineralsOther industries

020406080

100120140160180

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Billio

n L

United States Brazil Europe RoW

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It should not be forgotten however that currently over half of biomass and waste resources are still used in a traditional manner for cooking and heating, resulting in health, societal and environmental impacts.

Consumption of biomass and waste by end use (2015)

The focus of the technology roadmap is modern bioenergy solutions

Traditional use Industry - heatModern building - heat Electricity and co-generationTransport Commercial heatOther

Total:51EJ

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Accelerating bioenergy deployment up to 2025 will depend on greater utilisation of technically mature solutions which can roll out quickly under supportive policies and market conditions.

A range of mature bioenergy solutions can scale up immediately

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With OECD countries 1.5% of biogas produced was for transport, most notably in Germany, Norway and Sweden, while in the United States consumption grew five-fold between 2014-16.

European biomethane plants 2011-15 (left) and production by feedstock source for selected countries (right)

Waste and residue biomethane consumption in the transport sector

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Numb

er of

biom

ethan

e plan

ts

All Europe GermanySweden United Kindgdom

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

France Germany Switzerland UnitedKingdom

Feed

stock

shar

e of p

rodu

ction

Municipal wastes Mixed wastesEnergy crops Industrial wastesSewage sludge Agricultural resdiues

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The conversion of fossil fuel assets to biomass offers reduced investment costs and quicker delivery than new build projects, as well as direct substitution of fossil fuels and potential to conserve jobs in stranded

assets.

Global examples of fossil fuel to bioenergy conversion projects

Conversion of existing fossil fuel infrastructure to bioenergy

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Key policies to enable a scale-up in short term opportunities

•  For transport solutions life-cycle carbon intensity based policy frameworks.

•  Where high levels of investment is required (e.g. greenfield refinery, sugar mill efficiency improvement or district heating) financial de-risking measures.

•  Active municipal government support e.g. planning, waste management, public procurement, heat mapping.

•  Robust sustainability governance arrangements to provide confidence to policy makers and the general public.

In addition, other enabling factors such as the availability of infrastructure, technical specification development and enhancing workforce skills play a key role.

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The Vision

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The full portfolio of technologies is needed for decarbonisation

Delivering deep carbon emission reductions will require an unprecedented effort in technology innovation and diversification worldwide

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

0 100 200 300 400GtCO2cumulativereductionsin2060

0

10

20

30

40

50

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Efficiency40%

Renewables35%

Fuelswitching5%

Nuclear6%

CCS15%

Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6%

CCS 15%

Efficiency34%

Renewables15%

Fuelswitching18%

Nuclear1%

CCS33%

2DS

RTS

B2DS

GlobalCO2reductionsbytechnologyarea

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Bioenergy an essential component of IEA Low Carbon Scenarios

Bioenergy to provide some 17% of cumulative carbon savings to 2060 in the 2DS and around 22% of additional cumulative reductions in the B2DS, including an important contribution from BECCS

Role of Bioenergy – RTS to B2DS Role of Bioenergy

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Global Emissions GT CO2

2DS - Other technologies

2DS - Bioenergy

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Global Emissions GT CO22DS - Other technologies

2DS - Bioenergy

B2DS - Other technologies

B2DS - Bioenergy

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Bioenergy serves many energy uses in IEA 2DS scenario

Total final energy consumption of sustainable bioenergy increases four times by 2060 in the 2DS. Use of sustainable biofuels for transport increases tenfold, with a large majority of advanced biofuels

2.5x

6x

Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption 2015

18 EJ

41%

33%

15%

9% 2%

Transport Industry Electricity Modernbiomassheating Other

73 EJ

2060

10x

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Biofuels: an important option in a portfolio of transport solutions

While demand of transport services more than doubles , biofuels complement end-use efficiency and strong growth in electricity, providing almost 30% of transport final energy demand in 2060

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

EJ

Hydrogen

Electricity

Biofuels

Other fossil

Fossil Jet Fuel

Fossil Diesel

Fossil Gasoline

Transport Fuels – 2DS

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Electricity generation in 2DS

Bio-electricity grows 7X and goes from 2 to 7% of electricity generation

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

TWh Biomass with CCS

Biomass

Other Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

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Strong acceleration needed between now and 2030

Bioenergy in final energy consumption needs to double by 2030, and biofuels in transport treble. Advanced biofuels will need a massive scale up

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2060

EJ Other

Electricity

Transport

Industry

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2030 2060

EJ Other

Electricity

Transport

Industry

Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption in 2DS

2X

3X

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Four key actions

Need for appropriate policy frameworks

1.  Promote short term deployment of mature options

2.  Stimulate the development and deployment of new technologies

3.  Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably, backed by a supportive

sustainability governance system

4.  Develop capacity and catalyse investment via a coordinated international

collaboration effort

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•  New technologies needed with good carbon performance and adapted to market roles in 2DS.

•  Continued R,D and D to reduce costs and improve GHG performance of existing biofuels technologies

•  Demonstrate reliable performance from existing “novel biofuels” plants

•  Develop and demonstrate routes to diesel and biojet with improved costs, better C balances and GHG performance (link to RE H2 production)

•  Identify potential and development paths for cost reduction

2. Stimulate development and deployment of new technologies

Some routes to new biofuels

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3. Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably

•  Deployment will need wastes, residues, forestry and energy crops •  Produced in line with sustainable resource management, forestry and agricultural

practice •  Produced with minimized impacts on land use change emissions by co-

production with food, use of under-productive land, improved production •  Supported by general effort to improve agricultural productivity and efficiency

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 EJ

Residues Agriculture Total - Minimum

Total - Maximum MSW Forestry

operations

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Goals Principles

•  GHG performance based rather than feedstock or technology specific

•  Builds on and integrated with wider efforts to manage sustainability of the bioeconomy

•  Recognises regional and sectoral differences

-  opportunities -  risks -  governance

•  Increasingly based on real life data and feedback into best practice and regulation

……, backed by a supportive sustainability governance system

Ensure C savings Avoid other significant negative

sustainability impacts

Promote best practice and provide stable regulatory regime

Encourage best practice and stimulate innovation

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Investment needs to rise sharply

Need to catalyse finance: from $30 Billion now to $58 Billion and eventually over $200 Billion/year

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020-2030 2031-2050 2051-2060

USD billion

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4. Develop capacity via a coordinated international collaboration effort

Development Agencies Funding Institutions

•  Identify regional and local opportunities •  Build technical and regulatory capacity •  Build up finance pipeline

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The ideal policy landscape…..

Level the playing field Provide low risk investment climate

Catalyse and support innovation

Fair, stringent and stable sustainability regime

•  Balance subsidies •  Price in carbon

externalities •  Remove other barriers to

low carbon technologies

•  Market access •  Long term goal

and clear and specific targets

•  Long term offtake arrangements

•  Clear regulatory framework

•  Obligations for new products

•  Risk mitigation (e.g. loan guarantees)

•  R,D and D Support

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What next?

•  Influencing -  Strategy for IEA Bioenergy -  Biofuture Platform -  MI Sustainable Bioenergy Challenge

•  Follow up of key deployment indicators via IEA Clean Energy Progress Report…….

•  Continued cooperation/coordination of international organisations -  Potential for cost reduction for advanced biofuels -  Potential for bioenergy in industry (along with other renewables) -  Role of international aid agencies and lenders in bioenergy -  Expanded work on synergies between bioenergy and wider bioeconomy -  Identification of policy best practice for stimulation of sustainable bioenergy including novel

biofuels -  Effective application of sustainability criteria for bioenergy, including for forestry based

biomass.

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Conclusions

•  Sustainable bioenergy is an essential element in the portfolio of measures needed for a low carbon scenario.

•  Biofuels can play a particularly important role in the transport sector, complementing energy efficiency measures and electrification, and with a special role in aviation, shipping and other long haul transport, but also grows in industry, electricity and buildings.

•  Progress is much slower than necessary so we need to -  Expand deployment of existing technologies -  Commercialise the new technologies -  Develop sustainable supply chains and appropriate sustainability governance systems -  Build technical and regulatory capacity in a much wider range of countries and regions

•  Putting in place suitable policy frameworks is a vital step in accelerating deployment

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For further insights and analysis…

•  Technology Roadmap - delivering sustainable bioenergy -  Available from the following link:

www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-on-bioenergy.html.

•  Energy Technology Perspectives 2017

•  Renewables 2017 Market Report

•  How2Guide for Bioenergy

•  Energy Access Outlook 2017

For more information see: www.iea.org/publications/

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