iedc technology-led economic development
TRANSCRIPT
Things You Have Going for You
1. You have a real crisis. 2. You have leaders that get it. 3. You have a plan and are execuGng on it. 4. You are innovaGng. 5. Your people have a strong work ethic. 6. They have extended families with roots. 7. You have bandwidth coming. 8. You have nimble higher educaGon insGtuGons 9. Growing job opportuniGes from network dynamics. 10. You have a strong congressional delegaGon and the
sympathy of the federal government.
Labor Starvation Scenario
Dependents
Qualified Workforce
Dependents
Qualified Workforce
Unqualified Workforce
Re$rement
old
young
Failing Schools
Unqualified Workforce
REPLACEMENT How many economic base jobs are you losing?
Higher Attrition Rates
LIFE CYCLE Companies don’t last as long; globalization and new business models.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Computers that talk, think and create.
AUTOMATION Machines doing the work of humans.
We need a more comprehensive and rigorous system
for planning, accounGng and reporGng of our economic development program efforts.
The Planning Continuum
Discourse Assessment
Strategy Plan
Organization Ramp
Report Results
Execute
Think Plan Do
A New Planning and Accounting System
1. Clarity 2. Consensus 3. UnderwriGng 4. InnovaGon 5. Decision making 6. Leadership development 7. Stakeholder confidence 8. Pubic image
New Framework New Process
Coherence: Agree on the theoretical construct,
nomenclature and process
Economic Predicament:
Agree on the number of new, economic-base
jobs that must be created
Economic Sector
Selection: Agree on a ranked list of the sectors with the highest
potential for generating the economic-base
jobs
Geographic Distribution &
Resource Gaps:
Agree on areas of the state in which
the new, economic-base jobs are most
likely to be created
Policy and Program
Implications: Agree on job
creation program and policy
initiatives needed to deliver the job
numbers
CELab Clinical Consensus Process
Write plans for Major Program
Theaters
Prescribe AcGonable SoluGons for each Factor of ProducGon
Gaps
AucGon local responsibility for each major
program component.
Revise plan for any shor^all.
Form organizaGons, raise funds and
seat governance board(s)
Staff Up, execute and
Report
Planning to Doing
Lautman Economic Architecture LLC
Clinical Consensus Method
A New Taxonomy - Program Theaters
Theater Activities Employer Recruiting, expansion and retention of employers
Federal Government BRAC efforts, Health, Education, transfer payments
Film and Digital Media Film, TV, games
Start Up Starting new enterprises that will have employees
Solos Enterprises with no employees, remote work
Visitor Driven Tourism, hospitality, transit services
Retirement Affluent retirement strategies
Agriculture New crop development
Extractives and Energy Mining, oil & gas, power plants, wind, solar, bio
Import Substitution Produce locally instead of importing
New Mexico Business As Usual
Short 10,826 Jobs for break even
Short 26,779 Jobs for full employment
Short 69,981 Jobs for 244,779 new population
A New Taxonomy
Theater Job Estimates Activities Employer 43,944 Major employer Recruiting, retention & expansion
Federal 38,035 Federal agencies, healthcare, higher education
Visitor Driven 38,035 Tourism, hospitality, transit services
Retirement 21,000 Affluent retirement strategies
Extractives & Energy 11,689 Mining, oil & gas, power plants, wind, solar, bio
Solos 11,920 Freelancers, 1099 contractors, independents
Film & Digital Media 11,281 Film, TV, games
Start Up 8,771 Innovation to Enterprise, start ups, tech transfer
Agriculture 4,739 New crop development, food processing, forestry
Import Substitution ??? Produce locally instead of importing
Total Jobs Estimated 151,461 Total Jobs Needed 139,690 Difference +11,771
Economic Base Job Creation Potential
Program Theaters Potential Biz as Usual Implied Action
Employer 52,789 32,260 Overhaul & Elevate Federal Government 29,327 21,995 Strategy and Plan Solowork 21,000* 7,140 Pilot - Fund Extractives and Energy 21,862 21,862 Strategy Retirement 21,000* 10,500 Plan Development Visitor 16,671 0 Overhaul & Elevate Start up 9,515 2,855 Strategy & Plan Agriculture 4,720 2,360 Strategy & Plan Film and Digital Media 3,500 0 Expansion Plan
*Estimates refined based on Jobs Council initiatives
Factor of Production Gaps
Marketing & Sales Real Estate Workforce Business
Climate
Research Building Inventory Qualified Workforce Leadership
Lead Generation Land Inventory Workforce Housing Planning
Sales Utilities Education & Training Organization
Deal Structuring Bandwidth Community Quality Tax & Regulation
Completion Transportation
Capital
Factors of Production – NM 2014
166,661
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Jobs
At R
isk
Capi
tal
Publ
ic Sa
fety
Band
wid
th
Tran
smiss
ion
Road
s &
Drain
age
Pow
er &
Gas
Wat
er &
Sew
er
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Qua
lified
Wor
kfor
ce
Tax
& Re
gulat
ory
Land
Inve
ntor
y
Hous
ing
Mkt
g. &
Lea
d G
ener
atio
n
Sales
& D
eal S
truct
uring
Lead
ersh
ip
Build
ing In
vent
ory
A Real Plan
1. Comprehensive 2. Prescriptive 3. Time-Scale Descriptive 4. Organization - Governance 5. Funding – Staffing - Management 6. Causal Accounting - Reporting 7. Iterative
New Mexico Job Creation Plan
Program Theater
Definition 10 yr E-Base Job potential
Status Priority/Rank The Plan Major Factor of production Gaps Proposed Solutions
Employer Focused on procuring economic base jobs by attracting new companies and helping existing companies survive and grow. Jobs in this theater take place in commercial office and industrial facilities, and the employees are hired as W2 employees. • Sectors Included: Back Office, Exported Services, Integrated IT/Cyber,
Manufacturing • Key Players: EDOs, NM Partnership, NMEDD, DWS, HED, Chambers
Total 52,789 Program reliant 44,871
Underfunded and Understaffed
Potential Impact: High-1 Rural Impact: High - 4 Influence: High - 4
Marketing and Sales 1.1 Overhaul and 2x the employer program apparatus (restructure partnership and NMEDD) -Establish a comprehensive planning and accountability system - Raise the state marketing spend from 300K-3M - Triple state and local sales caseload - Dramatically increase number of seasoned pros. - Scale state‘s incentives and closing resources to —but for“ demand Hard Assets -3,700 acres of land, 2.65M sqft of industrial space Workforce -Establish an integrated workforce placement education and training system focused on gaps -Focus state higher education scholarships on gap career fields -Elevate technical cognitive skills programs in grade school curricula.
- Staff Shortage - Qualified lead shortage - Insufficient Workforce - Building shortage - Housing Shortage - Broadband shortage - Lack of planning/accountability
- Accountability Act - Limit incentives with —but for“ test - Formula for LEDA replenishment - EDO Staff Augmentation - Econ Dev Training Program - EDO Marketing Funds - Property tax abatement - Deregulate local LEDA for Broadband - Restructure Partnership - Reorganize NMEDD for other theaters - Workforce gap analysis - HED scholarship rule change
Federal Gov't
Increasing the number of jobs paid for by the federal government. This includes general schedule (GS jobs), private sector federal contractor jobs, jobs generated by federal grants and loans, and jobs in healthcare and higher education created as a result of expansion of federal funds and programs. • Sectors Included: Federal Government, Health and Social Services, Higher
Education • Key Players: Congressional Delegations, EDOs, STC, Nat‘l Labs
Total 31,867 Program Reliant 23,900
Limited Activity, Unorganized
Potential Impact: High-2 Rural Impact: Moderate/high-6 Influence: High-5
- Establish a senior manager within NMEDD to plan, organize and execute statewide program to recruit, expand, and initiate new missions/jobs across all federal agencies and their primary contractors.
- No Program/planning - No mapping - Transportation - Housing Shortage - Gross receipts tax
- Map Job Levels - Stand Alone Fund - Healthcare Construction - Student Debt Forgiveness - Office of Federal Entrepreneurship - Fed Gov focused EDO Consortia
Solo A solo economic base worker performs work full time from a home office, workshop, studio or mobile platform. While they may work for a corporation, they do not work in a centralized workplace. They must also be a resident of the state and a taxpayer. The qualifier for economic base is that a job brings in 51% or more revenue from out of state. The level of income generated by a solo economic base worker should exceed 200% of the federal poverty rate. • Sectors Included: All industry and service sectors, commuters to out of state jobs • Key Players: SBDCs, Incubators, Accelerators, Coworking spaces
Total 21,000* Program Reliant 7,140
No Program Potential Impact: High - 3 Rural Impact: High - 1 Influence: High-3
- Establish a statewide SoloWork Center program scaled to create 20,000 jobs over ten yrs funded at $3,500-5,000 per job post-performance by EDD and DWS programs. (JTIP, Rapid Response, WIOA)
- Build out local bandwidth capacity.
- No Program/plan - No state brand - Broadband shortage - Business Services - GRT
- Solo Pilot Program - Broadband P3 - JTIP Rule Change - Adapt SBDC to solowork strategy - Change LEDA rules to cover broadband
infrastructure
Energy & Extractives
Creating jobs in two primary areas of the export economy; the extraction and processing of raw materials from the land for export and the production and transmission of energy for export out of the state. • Sectors Included: Energy and Extractives • Key Players: EDOs, NMOGA
Total 21,862 Program Reliant 18,583
Active but unorganized
Potential Impact: High-4 Rural Impact: Moderate-5 Influence: Low-8
- Attain regulatory parity with neighboring states. - Build new transmission infrastructure to out of state
markets. - Recruit value added production and refinement facilities. - Convert transportation fleets to natural gas.
- Assistance from NMEDD - Rail access - Affordable housing - Qualified Labor - Conflicting political environment - Regulatory environment
- Rail Subsidy - Local Funding for Housing - Lift Export Restrictions - Worker Relocation - Interdepartmental Cooperation
Retirement Recruiting economic-base retirees who have a combination of net worth and retirement income in excess of 200% of the federal poverty guidelines. Because their investment and retirement income are from outside the state, they will have the same impact on the local and state economy as the creation of a new economic base job. • Key Players: Real Estate Brokers, Home Builders, Tourism Dept
Total 21,000 Prog Reliant 10,500
Unorganized but programmable
Potential Impact: Moderate-5 Rural Impact: High-3 Influence: Moderate-7
- Build an affluent retiree recruiting program onto the state‘s tourism efforts.
- Provide state match to local public/private recruiting and fulfillment efforts. (Avg $3M/yr for yrs 1-5, $5M/yr for yrs 6-10)
- No Program/planning - Broadband - Lack of suitable housing - Lack of rural Healthcare - No community rating
- Retiree Income Tax Break - Healthcare Worker Rural Incentive - Retirement Community Rating - Web/App based marketing
Visitor Jobs with salaries paid from the local sale of goods and services to visitors from out-of-state. Although most job creation activities in this theater fall can be defined as tourism -- any journey for business or pleasure more than 50 miles outside your community in which you spend more than one night away from home -- the IJC process would exclude journeys for business or pleasure by New Mexico residents. • Sectors Included: Hotel, Hospitality, Food and Beverage, Transportation, Events • Key Players: Tourism Dept, Tourism Assoc. CVB, Hotel Assoc., State Parks,
Chambers, Lodgers Tax Boards, Realtors Assoc.
Total 16,674 Program Reliant 8,337
Well Organized Potential Impact: Moderate-6 Rural Impact: High-2 Influence: High=2
- Increase tourism promotion budget by $2M per year ($23M/yr in yr 10).
- Expand tourism program to include matching call to action-fulfillment functions. ($2M)
- Expand tourism department focus to include long term leisure, long-term and short-term business travel and transit.
- Limited Data - Low repeat visits - Low promotion of attractions - Poor local representation - Nonstop flights - Highway access - Broadband/Cell service - Hospitality training - Insufficient product improvement - No local planning
- Tourism Incubator - Tourism call to action marketing - P3 for Tourism Marketing - Trucker Advertising - Cell Service Improvement - Hospitality Training - Tourism and DoL Collaboration - Liquor License Stock Split - B&B Taxation
Startup The focus of this theater is entrepreneurs. The mission is helping community members turn their business ideas into enterprises with economic-base employees. Program activities: increasing rate and quality of ideas, innovation and IP that can be converted, conversion of ideas into viable enterprises, helping them grow. • Sectors Included: All industry and economic sectors • Key Players: Incubators, Accelerators, SBDCs, Venture Capitalist, SIC, STC, Nat‘l
Labs
Total 9,515 Program Reliant 6,661
Active, Growing but unorganized
Potential Impact: Moderate-7 Rural Impact: Low-8 Influence: Moderate-6
- Establish a coherent planning, accountability and reporting system.
- Establish a position in NMEDD to plan, organize and execute startup job creation efforts statewide.
- Improve tax and regulatory parity with surrounding states
- Lack of Venture Capital - Broadband - Qualified Labor - Too much focus on tech transfer - Low awareness of existing services - Lack of leadership/planning
- Planning and accountability system - Incubator Demand Gauge - Out of state investment Tax Credit - Opportunity fund - SIC Aid - Capital Gains Reduction - Tax and Revenue Data Sharing - Return to Sender Tax Credit - Tax Break on Rollover Investment
Agriculture Procuring economic base jobs by attracting, expanding and creating enterprises that grow, process and distribute food and fiber. • Sectors Included: Agriculture • Key Players: Dept of Ag, Major Producers, Ag Extension service, NMEDD, Local
Gov
Total 4,720 Program Reliant 2,360
Active but unorganized
Potential Impact: Low - 8 Rural Impact: Moderate-7 Influence: Moderate-9
- Task secretary of agriculture with establishing a statewide job creation strategy by region and industry sector.
- Reaching international markets - Natural Resources - Low value crops - Encroaching urbanization - Lack of planning
- Right to Farm - Water Rights - Incentivize High Value Crop
Film/ Digital Media
Recruiting and developing the production of feature films, independent films, television, regional and national commercials, documentaries, animation, video games, webisodes, mobile applications and post production work intended for commercial exploitation and exhibitions out of state. • Sectors Included: TV Series, Video Games, Feature Film Production • Key Players: NM Film Office, NMEDD, Local Studios
Total 3,500 Program Reliant 3,500
Well organized Potential Impact: Low - 9 Rural Impact: Low-9 Influence: High-1
- Establish a private sector investment fund to supplement the state incentives cap. (combined total of $100M investment in yr 10)
- Marketing Capacity - Incentive Capacity - Broadband - Qualified Labor - Lack of Planning
- NMFO Staff Increase - Game Incubator/Accelerator - Stand-Alone Finance Program - Raise Incentive Cap - Site Selection Guidelines
Totals 180,284
Organizational Chart
- Business Retention, Expansion
- Recruiting - Federal Gov’t - Agriculture - Energy
- Short Term leisure visits
- Snowbirds - Drive by visits - Retirement
- Solowork - Solopreneurs - Startups
Consortium Cognoscenti Group
Metrics/ Accountability
EDOs Tourism Entrepreneurs
Factors of production gaps Team
Marketing/Sales Real Estate, Infr. Capital
Workforce, Housing, Community
Leadership, Org, Bus Climate
Land-Based
- Agriculture - Oil and Gas - Mining - Forestry
Solowork Center
A community supported program platform to create, advance and retain
new economic base jobs.
Solo W2 Workers Recruit, Screen
Train, Place Support
Solopreneurs who own their business have no centralized workplace or onsite employees.
Solopreneurs Recruit, Plan
Incubate or Convert Support
W2 Solo workers employed by an economic base employer and allowed to work from home or the Solowork Center.
Solowork 3.0 Economic Base Job Creation
New Solo Workers Recruit, Screen
Train, Place Support
New entrants to the solowork workforce, i.e. students, hard to employ, & chronically poor candidates.