ifpri- changing consumption pattern of pulses

Changing Consumption Pattern of Pulses

in India: Past Trends and Projections Supported by CRP 4: A4NH

P.Kumar and P K Joshi

International Food Policy Research Institute

South Asia Regional Office, New Delhi 110 012 India

E-mail: [email protected]

Web: www.ifpri.org


Backdrop

A gradual shift is taking place from traditional diets, dominated by cereals and pulses, to a dietary mix rich in high-value commodities (livestock, horticultural and processed food).

Pulse scenario is changing


Outline

Changing dietary pattern

Changing consumption of pulses

Sources of protein and contribution of pulses

Demand and supply projections and

gap


Data and approach

Data source

NSSO from 1988 to 2009

Period of study: 1988-2009

Classification of NSS data

Three income groups

Low income (Below poverty

line)

Middle income (PL to 150%

PL)

High income (above 150% PL)

Demography

Rural and Urban

State level

Classification by Farm

Size

<0.5 ha Sub-marginal

0.5-1.0 ha Marginal

1.0-2.0 ha Small farms

2.0-4.0 ha Medium

Farm

> 4.0 ha Large farms


CHANGING DIETARY PATTERN

I

Dietary diversification (kg/capita/annum)

Food item 1988 2009 % change

Rice 88.3 79.6 -9.9

Wheat 56.7 46.8 -17.5

Other cereals 22.1 6.8 -69.1

Total cereals 167.1 133.2 -20.3

Pulses 11.8 8.4 -28.8

Sugar 11.4 9.2 -19.9

Edible oils 5.2 8.4 62.5

Vegetables 52.4 87.2 66.4

Fruits 12.1 16.5 35.9

Milk 53.3 63.8 19.5

Meat, Fish & eggs 5.9 10.0 69.3

Dietary diversification (kg/capita/annum)

Food Commodity

Poor households Rich households

1988 2009 change,% 1988 2009 change,%

Rice 73.7 71.1 -3.5 99.6 82.5 -17.1

Wheat 46.8 42.8 -8.6 67.3 49.1 -27.0

Other cereals 25.3 7.7 -69.5 18.8 5.8 -69.2

Total cereals 145.8 121.6 -16.6 185.6 137.4 -26.0

Pulses 7.8 5.6 -28.1 16.4 10.3 -37.2

Edible oils 3.1 5.5 78.1 7.6 10.2 34.4

Vegetables 38.3 62.7 63.6 68.5 102.6 49.7

Fruits 5.3 5.0 -6.0 21.1 24.8 17.7

Milk 18.5 22.1 19.1 95.9 91.7 -4.4

Sugar 6.6 5.7 -13.1 17.2 11.3 -34.2

Meat, Fish & eggs 3.2 4.1 25.4 9.3 13.9 49.7

CHANGING PULSE CONSUMPTION

II

Annual per capita consumption of pulses (kg/annum)

• Pulse consumption of poor

(5.5 or 5.8 kg) is almost half

of rich (9.9 or 10.8 kg)

consumers

• Pulse consumption is

declining in all income

groups in rural and urban

– Decline is faster in urban than

rural

– Higher consumption in urban

than rural households

Income 1988 2009 %

Change

Rural

• Low 7.4 5.5 -25.5

• Medium 10.6 7.0 -34.7

• High 15.6 9.9 -36.1

• All 11.2 8.1 -27.8

Urban

• Low 8.7 5.8 -33.2

• Medium 11.8 7.4 -37.5

• High 16.5 10.8 -34.6

• All 12.5 8.9 -28.7


Dietary diversification of farmers (kg/capita/year)

0

5

10

15

20

< .5 ha 1-2 ha > 2 ha

9.3 11.5

16.6

7.9 8.5 10

1988 2009

Pulse consumption Pulse consumption declined in all

classes, more among large farmers

7.9 kg by marginal farmers than 10 kg

by large farmers

Milk consumption is more among

large farmers but increasing faster

in marginal farmers (63%) then

the large farmers (20%)

0

50

100

150

< .5 ha 1-2 ha > 2 ha

30.6 48.1

96.5

49.9

68

115.7

1988 2009

Milk consumption

Consumer segmentation of pulses, 2009 ( kg/capita/annum)

Low income

High income

Rural 5.5 9.9

Urban 5.8 10.8

Farmers 7.9 10.0

• Farmers in low

income category are

consuming more

pulses than the rural

& urban consumer

• All categories in

higher income are

consuming almost

same quantity

Product wise consumption of pulses (kg/capita/annum)

Year 1988 2009 % change

Chickpea 2.42 2.10 -13.22

Pigeon pea 3.11 2.15 -30.87

Green gram 1.58 1.02 -35.44

Lentil 1.70 1.16 -31.76

Black gram 1.24 0.93 -25.00

Yellow Peas 0.26 0.45 73.08

Soybean 0.04 0.08 100.00

Khesari (Lytherous) 0.31 0.49 58.06

All pulses & product 11.62 8.46 -27.19

Pigeon pea followed by chickpea are the most important pulses but their

consumption is declining

Consumption of cheap pulses (yellow pea, soybean and khesari) is increasing

Structural change in consumption of pulses in India (% share of pulses in total pulses)

PulsesY 1988 2009

Change

2009 over

1988

Pigeon pea 26.8 25.4 -0.8

Chickpea 20.8 24.8 4.0

Lentil 14.6 13.7 -0.9

Green gram 13.6 12.1 -1.5

Black gram 10.7 11.0 0.3

Yellow peas 2.2 5.3 3.1

Major pulse consuming states

Pigeon pea

• Andhra Pradesh

• Gujarat

• Karnataka

• Madhya Pradesh

• Maharashtra

• Tamil Nadu

• Uttar Pradesh

Chickpea

• Haryana

• Himachal Pradesh

• Jammu & Kashmir

• Punjab

• Uttarakhand

• Rajasthan

• Jharkhand

Lentil

• Assam

• Bihar

• West Bengal

• North-east states

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://veganomical.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/lentils.jpg&imgrefurl=http://veganomical.com/2013/09/18/lentil-loaf/&docid=tpxPH-Sy0YPNsM&tbnid=cCcWqRlfxAC60M:&w=400&h=300&ei=5nXSUsyAOc3wrQfe74CgCQ&ved=0CAIQxiAwAA&iact=c

PROTEIN INTAKE AND PULSE

CONTRIBUTION

III

Photo sources: Gescommodity.com; 123rf.com; indiamart.com; chefinyou.com; indiamart.com; panchpakwan.com; foodspice.com; aagriculttimeformation.com;

Protein intake by income-

group (g/capita/annum)

Income 1988 2009 % change

Poor 49.8 47.8 -4.3

Middle 62.1 58.9 -5.4

Rich 80.1 84.7 5.4

• Protein intake among

2/3 of population is

very low & declining

• Among 1/3 rich

consumers protein

intake is slowly rising

Among farmers protein intake is rising except of

large farmers (g/capita/annum)

Farm-size 1988 2009 change,%

Sub-marginal (<0.5 ha) 60.1 66.7 11.1

Marginal (0.5-1.0 ha) 63.8 66.7 4.6

Small (1.0-2.0 ha) 67.5 69.5 3.0

Medium (2.0-4.0 ha) 72.5 73.5 1.3

Large (> 4 ha) 83.3 78.3 -6.0

All farms 68.7 69.0 0.5

Sources of protein in Indian diet across rural and

urban households (% share in total)

Household

type Year Cereals Pulses Vegetables Fruits Milk

Meat, fish

& eggs

Processed

food

Rural 1988 69.8 10.8 4.2 0.5 8.1 4.3 2.3

2009 52.4 7.3 5.2 0.6 9.0 6.9 18.5

Urban 1988 60.4 12.9 4.8 0.8 11.5 6.1 3.4

2009 42.1 7.4 4.8 0.7 9.1 7.1 28.7

• Cereals are the main source of protein (52.4%) but are declining overtime

in both rural and urban areas

• Share of pulses in protein is declining but that of milk, meat and

processed commodities is increasing.

• Processed food contributing protein 18% in rural and 29% in urban

Trends in protein intake from pulses (g/capita/day)

Income group 1988 2009 Change, %

(1988-2009)

Rural

Low income group (BPL) 9.3 6.8 -26.2

Medium Income group 10.5 7.2 -31.6

High income group 12.0 7.6 -37.0

All 10.8 7.3 -32.2

Urban

Low income group 11.2 7.6 -32.3



All 12.9 7.4 -43.2

India

Low income group 9.9 7.2 -27.7



All 11.5 7.4 -35.9

DEMAND-SUPPLY

PROJECTIONS 2030

IV

Demand for pulses

• Direct demand 11.3 m t (69%)

• Value added products 3.7 m t (20%)

• Seed 1.2 m t (7%)

• Miscellaneous 1.8 m t (4%)


Demand elasticities of pulses by income group

Income group Income

elasticity

Price

elasticity

Sum of

income and

price elasticity

Low income 0.500 -0.699 -0.199

Middle income 0.274 -0.530 -0.256

High income 0.098 -0.349 -0.251

All households 0.206 -0.456 -0.250


Yield response elasticities for pulses in India

Pulse

grains

Output

price (P)

Input price

w/P b/P m/P r/P i/P

All Pulses 0.1695 -0.0007 -0.0012 0.0020 -0.0013 0.0012

Chick pea 0.2348 -0.0011 -0.0125 0.0123 0.0015 -0.0001

Green

gram 0.2992 0.0024 0.0051 -0.0028 -0.0009 -0.0038

Pigeon

pea 0.1869 0.0004 0.0014 0.0023 -0.0021 -0.0020

Black

gram 0.1890 0.0058 -0.0116 0.0031 -0.0042 0.0069


Commodity

Baseline S2: Baseline growth + 50% acceleration

in TFP growth by 2030

scenario (S1) 2010 2020 2030

All Pulses 2.48 2.48 2.52 2.54

Chick pea 4.48 4.49 4.52 4.56

Green gram 3.12 3.13 3.24 3.38

Pigeon pea 2.23 2.25 2.44 2.57

Black gram 1.78 1.80 1.92 2.02

S3:Baseline growth + 50% deceleration in TFP

growth by 2030

All Pulses 2.48 2.47 2.43 2.40

Chick pea 4.48 4.48 4.44 4.40

Green gram 3.12 3.10 2.96 2.85

Pigeon pea 2.23 2.21 2.10 2.00

Black gram 1.78 1.77 1.69 1.62

Projected growth in production of pulse grains

in India:2010-2030


Year

(Million tonnes)

Production Demand Demand-

Pulse grains Pulses Pulses Production gap

S1:Baseline scenario

2010 16.17 14.55 18.02 -3.47

2020 20.65 18.59 21.87 -3.28

2030 26.38 23.74 26.58 -2.84

S2: Baseline scenario +50% TFP growth acceleration by the year 2030

2010 16.17 14.55 18.02 -3.47

2020 20.7 18.63 21.87 -3.24

2030 26.57 23.91 26.58 -2.67

S3: Baseline +50% TFP growth deceleration by the year 2030

2010 16.16 14.55 18.02 -3.47

2020 20.59 18.53 21.87 -3.34

2030 26.14 23.53 26.58 -3.05

Domestic production and demand under different scenarios and trade potential of pulses in India:2010-2030


Demand-supply projections for pulses, million tons

Year Demand Production Deficit

2010 18.02 14.55 -3.47

2020 21.87 18.59 -3.28

2030 26.58 23.74 -2.84


Summary of key findings • Similarity in patterns of decline in consumption of pulses

across demographic, income and farm size groups

• Decline in rate of pulses more in case of higher income

groups than lower income groups

• Decline rate of pulses more in case of larger farm sizes

than smaller farm sizes

• Increase in consumption of cheaper pulses like peas, soya

and Khesari (lathyrus)

• Demand of value added (processed) pulses is increasing

significantly

• Diversification towards protein sources (livestock and

processed food) Decline of pulses share in total intake of proteins

Deficit of pulses projected around 3 million tonnes in future too.

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