igees irish government economic and evaluation...
TRANSCRIPT
IGEES – Irish Government Economic and
Evaluation Service
Jasmina Behan/Chris Boyle
Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service
Department of Public Expenditure and Reform
25 Sept 2018
Total Government Expenditure
72.5 bn
Policy space
3
‘Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made’ Otto von Bismarck
Gut feeling, ideology, generally accepted belief
Policies are experiments
Monitoring, evaluation, correction, termination
Understanding the problem (setting rationale) half the battle (unintended consequences)
Every euro spent on poor schemes is a euro less for Government to provide other needed services
4
Policies
Public policy
IGEES Medium Term Strategy 2016-2019
Strategic goal:
Contribute to better design and targeting of Government policy through high quality analysis and evaluation
Strategy 1:
Output
Papers
Research fund
Spending Review
Budget
SR Conference
Annual Conference
Strategic Policy Discussions
Other (conferences, website etc.)
Strategy 2:
Dissemination
Strategy 3: Recruitment
Recruitment: 135
Departments: 17
AP promotion: 21
Strategy 4:
Training
Mobility
L&D Framework
Induction
CBA, CIE, R etc.
5
Communication: IGEES HIVE, IGEES End Year Event, IGEES Newsletter
Governance: IAG, EAG, POG
IGEES
Evidence
based decisions
Knowledge
(Information with insight)
Information
(Data in context)
Data
Key principles and approaches
doing the right thing – spending for right objectives
doing it right – spending efficiently
Are we doing right things and are we doing them right?
Exchequer expenditure
on enterprise supports
amounts to over 1bn
euro – how effective are
these supports in
ensuring resilience of
Irish enterprises in the
face of Brexit?
In 2017, the Exchequer
is spending over 600m
euro on 4 housing
schemes (HAP, RAS,
SHCEP and RS) – how
efficient and effective
are these schemes in
alleviating the housing
crisis?
How effective is the
Irish higher education
system in meeting the
skill needs of the Irish
economy?
Ireland is ranked one
of the highest in terms
of pharmaceutical
spend (the price the
State pays
manufacturers for
medicines) per capita
– why is this the case
and how sustainable
is this expenditure?
Can behavioural
economics help us to
achieve better tax
compliance and
increase tax revenue?
Housing Assistance Payment (HAP), Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS), Social Housing Current Expenditure Programme (SHCEP) and Rent Supplement
IGEES and DPER Spending Review 2018
DPER Central
Expenditure
DPER
Vote
Vote
Vote
Vote
Vote
Department
Department
DepartmentDepartment
Department
Department
Department
9
Spending Review 2018
Efficiency and Digitalisation within the Office of the Revenue Commissioners
Management of Exchequer Pay Bill
HSE Staff Trend Analysis, 2014-2017
Policing Civilianisation in Ireland: Lessons from International Practice
Review of Overtime Expenditure in An Garda Síochána
Pay Expenditure Drivers at Primary and Second Level
Understanding the funding needs of the third level sector
An Analysis of Older People Services Spend and Activity, 2014-2017
Pension Bill Projections for the Public Service: Cashflow Analysis
Review of Criminal Legal Aid (DJE)
Supports for Persons on Low Income
Public Employment Services – Mapping Activation
An Analysis of Replacement Rates
Analysis of IDA Ireland Expenditure
Analysis of Enterprise Supports and the Labour Market
An Assessment of Direct Supports for Start-ups and Entrepreneurship (DBEI)
Sports Capital Programme (DTTaS)
Analysis of PSO Expenditure on Public Transport
Assessing the Split Between Current and Capital Expenditure on Social Housing Delivery
Analysis of OPW Spending on State Rents
Subsidised Ferry Services to the Offshore Islands (DCHG)
Review of Recent Evaluations by DTTaS (DTTaS)
Implementation of recommendations made as part of the VFM and Policy Review undertaken in regard to the Arts Council (DCHG)
Comparative Levels and Efficiency of Public Spending
Analysis of Hospital Inputs and Outputs, 2014-2017
Nursing and Midwifery Expenditure
Trends in Public Expenditure
Disability Allowance Spending Review
Chris Boyle
Social Protection Vote
Summary
Since 2012, there have been significant increases in expenditure on Disability Allowance.
Between 2012-2016, expenditure increased by €270m, an average of €68m per annum.
Concern within DPER regarding the increase in expenditure and the nature of that increase.
As part of the 2017 Spending Review, a paper was published that examined:
Historical and recent expenditure and recipient trends
Drivers of recent recipient drivers
International best practice regarding reforms of disability supports
The range of employment and employability supports for people with disabilities.
Recent Trends
Source: DEASP Admin Data
1,088
1,358
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Scheme Expenditure
Disaggregation of cost drivers
958
1,173
459
367
405
693
94 112
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
€m
Growth in Expenditure Rate Changes Recipient Numbers Supplementary Payments for Qualified Dependents
Source: DEASP Admin Data
Drivers of recipient numbers
The analysis found that the drivers of increased recipient numbers were:
Demographic Pressures
Increased population & ageing population
Movement from the Live Register
Domiciliary Care Allowance
Rule Changes to Illness Benefit
Analysis of inflows (age)
Source: DEASP Admin Data
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 66
Num
ber
of
recip
ients
Age Ranges
Age Profile of Inflows
2016-2017 2017-2018
Data
Data
Administrative data needs to be of the highest quality to ensure government’s ability to make informed policy decisions.
Databases such as the Jobseeker’s Longitudinal Database are excellent resources in this respect.
We found that data gaps hindered our ability to conclude this report as we couldn’t attribute exact rises in recipient number to certain drivers.
Ability to see trend but not quantum.
Improvements
In DEASP’s case, the digitalisation of their databases have been a great improvement in this respect.
All new recipients since May 2017 have been assigned as ICD-10 codes which standardises diagnoses.
On-going legacy issues in relation to long-term recipients and lack of data on them.
Conclusions & Recommendations
There are gaps in data on the stock of DA recipients
Recommendations in the Comprehensive Employment Strategy for People with Disabilities should be implemented
Implement further recommendations in the Making Work Pay report
A fundamental analysis of the objectives and underpinning legislation of DA is necessary in light of the change in the profile of inflows