iisia monthly report · 2016. 5. 4. · most aircrafts of israeli air force are f-16, whose flying...

IISIA Monthly Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis Inc.

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents 2 Chapter 1 Geopolitical Risks and the Financial Market

Takeo Harada, CEO 3

～A new tide change in U.S-Iran cooperative relationship by utilizing the “Afghanistan Issue”～

Chapter 2 The Latest Move in the Intelligence Community

and the Military Technology 12

Takeo Harada, CEO ～Analysis of a repetition of the Kosovo conflict

between the as a predictor of the coming tide change～


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Chapter 1 Geopolitical Risks and the Financial Market

-A New Tide Change in U.S-Iran Cooperative Relationship by Utilizing the

"Afghanistan Issue"-

By Takeo Harada, CEO

（1）Ｉｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎ

Gaza district in Palestine is in the spotlight since Israel started air raids on December 27, 2008

and then ground attacks, while the move of the US towards the inauguration of the new Obama

administration drew attentions. In this context there have been discussed a view that Israel will

escalate their containing attack to their nemesis Iran and a new grate war in the Middle East will

happen. In this circumstance, the crude oil futures rose sharply, even though in the short term,

after a long term of downturn.

＜Figure1-1：Transition of Crude Oil Futures Price at NY Market＞

（Source：Fuji Futures1）

While IISIA has kept the prediction scenario Lumiere, released on October 17, 2008, through our

analyses we have mentioned that the possibility of limited air-campaigns against Iran before the

inauguration of the Obama administration has been decreased, if not completely excluded. In

addition, since Israel started their air campaign against Gaza district, we analyzed the deployment

1 http://www.fuji-ft.co.jp/chart/0n-genyu/index.htm


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of the US Navy mobile units disclosed in open intelligent sources only to find that there was no

move that the US was quickly deploying many of their units to the Middle East to send military

supports to Israel. Therefore, we have kept our analysis that Israel’s limited air campaign to Iran

will not likely.2

In this regard, recently a key figure of the US made a very important remark. The remark suggests

that to calm down the continuously turbulent situation around Afghanistan, it is necessary to

involve Iran, the very country the Bush administration accused as “axis of evil”, into a

collaborative relationship in the region. This means that at the expense of the Afghanistan issue the

US is trying to approach Iran. At the same time, this remark was a real tide change suggesting that

the then-highlighted geopolitical risk ‒ the possibility of Israel’s air campaign against Iran, which

has been told in many occasions ‒ was almost completely denied, showing the change of the US

policy.

Now, in this report, we examine what is going on between the US and Iran, a nemesis for the US

for the last several years, and what kind of impact that will give to the global market and the moves

in the international community as well as in the domestic situation.

（2）Controversial Statement ――― Abrupt Transition by the U.S

On January 8, at a panel discussion on the Afghanistan issue held at the United States Institute of

Peace in Washington DC, General David Howell Petraeus made a remake as follows.3

“There are even common interests between Afghanistan, the (NATO) coalition and Iran ‒

though there are also major conflicting interests, needless to say”.

General Petraeus previously served as Commanding General, Multi-National Force - Iraq

(MNF-I) from January 26, 2007 to September 16, 2008.[1] As Commander of MNF-I, Petraeus

oversaw all coalition forces in Iraq. Commanding General Petraeus’ predecessor was Commanding

General William J. Fallon, who had reportedly been transferred by vice president Cheney because

of conflict of views. And now, General Petraeus, the very central figure of the US army, suddenly made a remark

suggesting the necessity of building a cooperative relationship with Iran, which had been the

2 Why is the deployment of the US military important? Most aircrafts of Israeli air force are F-16, whose flying

distance is short. So, to attack Iran even limitedly, supports by top-notch aerial tankers and mobile units (aircraft

carriers) of the US military are essential. In addition, the shortest flight course from Israel to Iran includes the

aerial domain of Iraq, where the US has significant influence. To use this flight course, it is necessary to have

prior consent of the US. In other words, by watching the deployment of the US navy, it is possible to foresee the

Israel’s possible military action against Iran. However, it should be noted that, to avoid these restrictions Israel

is said to strengthen the relationship with Turkey. (Reference:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17108.htm） 3 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3893682&c=AME&s=TOP （temporary translated by the writer）


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biggest nemesis of the US. At the discussion, the press showered questions. When looking back the previous remarks of US and NATO, it is natural that the press showed

great interests. NATO had harshly accused of Iran that they had been supporting Taliban, the

Islamist organization developing activities in Afghanistan in a various way.4 One of the concrete

accusations was that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard sent ships to support Taliban, violating

“international laws”.5 At this accusation, although the Afghanistan government said to quickly

discuss with Iran, they didn’t hide their fear that this would bring about negative consequences.6

In addition, Petraeus even said that while whether the regional cooperative relationship will be

achieved or not depends on the US policy makers, "(Iranians) don't want... to see Afghanistan in

the grip of ultrafundamentalist extremist Sunni forces".7 Iranian society includes a variety of

Muslim schools and Shiites seized the power in the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Because of this fact,

Petraeus analyzed that Iran would not want to let Taliban, the Sunni fundamentalist group rule the

country. However, as mentioned earlier, the US and NATO had repeatedly accused Iran of

supporting Taliban, making this an international issue. The very clear change of their attitude is

nothing but intriguing.

As mentioned above, Petraeus’ remark was made at a panel discussion held by the United States Institute of Peace, the famous think tank. Generally speaking, think tanks in the US are private

organizations. However, this institute is a public organization founded under the Reagan

administration in 1984 according to the United States Institute of Pease Act. The current head is J.

Robinson West, who will hold his term until October, 2012. West is one of the key figures of

Washington DC, who served in the Ford Administration as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of

Defense for International Economic Affairs (1976-77) and on the White House Staff (1974-76) as

well as in the Reagan Administration as Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Policy, Budget and

Administration (1981-83), with responsibility for US offshore oil policy.8 In addition to West,

Robert Gates, the current US state secretary of defense, serves in the managing committee of the

institute as a part-time contributor. Thus, when taking a look at the members, we can see that this

institute plays an important roll in the US politics virtually as an arm of the government.

＜Figure1-2：Map of Afghanistan＞

4 For example, please take a look at the remark made by the US Secretary of State Barns in the CNN interview

broadcast on June 14, 2007. （http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,139062,00.html） 5 See Barns’ remark mentioned above. 6 http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/aug/12mir.htm 7 http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5080A720090109 8 http://www.usip.org/aboutus/board_bios.html#chair.


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（Source：EurasiaNet9）

The panel discussion was held to disclose a report entitled “The Future of Afghanistan”.10 This

90-page report was written by 11 writers. In this report, most notable is the following statement

suggesting that the US should make efforts to strengthen the relationship between Afghanistan and

the surrounding countries.11

“An active and integrated diplomacy, led by a new U.S. administration, should seek creative

ways of fostering regional cooperation ... It will also require an administration that is prepared to

seek a new relationship with Iran.”

This part is written by William Malay, foundation director of the Asia-Pacific College of Diplomacy

at the Australian National University. Interestingly, He is the internationally renowned authority of

Afghanistan issues, serving as a visiting researcher of refugee issues at Oxford University. His

multi-layered major seems to suggest the complexity of the issue, whose entire picture is difficult to

see because of complicated interests of related countries.

In this context, it would be reasonable to say that Petraeus made the remark not unintentionally

but very consciously with complete calculations. Although the remark itself was widely reported in

Western media, the significant implication has seemingly never followed so far. And it is rather

bizarre that Japanese media have been silent on this remark, as president Obama has been

mentioning the Afghanistan issue as well as early withdrawal from Iraq even during the presidential

campaign. Now we can see that there comes a groundbreaking change of the diplomatic and military

framework ‒ the hidden intention was to make Afghanistan as a negotiation channel with Iran.

In the next section, let us take a look at the close relationship between Iran and Afghanistan which

9 http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp031807.shtml# 10 This report can be downloaded at the following website for free：

http://www.usip.org/peaceops/afghanistan/book.html 11 Ibid, page 90. Temporary translated by the writer.


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is now highlighted by the US, and we will examine why the US has taken such a sudden policy

change.

（3）The Actual Iran-Afghanistan Relations, Speculation of Individual Countries.

Afghanistan was once a part of the ancient Persian Empire. Since then, the two countries have

fostered close relationship in all aspects of politics, economy, and culture. Especially when the

former Soviet Union invaded into Afghanistan in 1979, the resistance group fighting against the

puppet regime created by the invader developed activities with supports by Iran. After then,

Islamist group Taliban, who established de facto control over most of the country, oppressed

Shiites, the minority in the country, and this led to increasingly worsened relations with Iran. After

the Karzai administration was founded in 2001 in Afghanistan, the relations between two countries

have become better again. Still, the Karzai administration is not completely positive about Iran, as

there is information that Iran is training anti-government groups.

As a background of the complex relations between the two countries, we should note the two

following specific issues, rather than the simple fact that the geographically neighboring countries

have a long history of trade relations.

Firstly, there is an issue over the water that goes over two countries, namely the conflict over

the Helmand river (See the right picture12). The river, whose water includes less salt than other

ones in this region, is very important for farmers living around it in Afghanistan as well as for people

living in the downstream area in the South-East Iran called Sistan and Baluchestan.

（Source：Wikipedia13）

12 http://www.afgha.com/?q=node/2016 13http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Helmand_River_Basin_Topo.png

＜Figure1-3：Helmand River Basin Topography＞


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Although the great river looks everlasting, the volume of water has been drastically decreasing.

One of the many factors is that farming in Afghanistan use a massive volume of water. For Iranians,

it is an urgent issue to keep an influence to Afghanistan over the water interest.

＜Figure1-4：Water Quantity of Helmand River （Year 1991-2001）＞

Year One million square meter

1991-92 2221.7

1992-93 1783.8

1993-94 529.5

1994-95 829.7

1995-96 1023.8

1996-97 908.7

1997-98 2193

1998-99 258.8

1999-2000 114.1

2000-01 48

（Source：Iranica14）

The other specific issue between the two countries is the opium trade. According to recent

researches, the 90 % of the opium production is made of Afghanistan, and the 60 % of Afghanistan’s

production is said to flow into neighboring Iran.15 The volume of the opium confiscated by the

Iranian authority increased by 29 % compared to the same month last year. In such a situation, the

number of Iran’s opiate addicts is, to the shame of the country, one of the biggest in the world.16

More than that, opium addiction leads to the increase of other infectious diseases in Iran. For

example, a statistical data shows that the 25 % of the HIV/AIDS patients in Iran is opiate addict.17

The Iranian government is making desperate efforts to crackdown the opium trade, only to play a

cat-and-mouse game with illegal traders. This situation is one of the factors for Iran to seek a

bigger influence to Afghanistan.

The fact that Iran keeps making consideration on relations with Afghanistan leads to a tide

change in which bigger international frameworks try to strengthen the latter. A typical example is

the international conference entitled “Afghanistan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian

14http://www.iranica.com/newsite/index.isc?Article=http://www.iranica.com/newsite/articles/v12f2/v12f2026a_t

ab01.html 15 http://www.cfr.org/publication/11457/ 16 Ibid. 17 Ibid.


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Security and Geopolitics”, which took place in the village of Choktal on the shores of Lake

Issyk-Kul in Kirghiz on June 11-12.18

Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an international organization established by China, Russia,

and four countries in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kirghiz, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) in 2001. This

organization was developed from the Shanghai Five (organized by the countries above except

Uzbekistan), which had been started as a “strategic partnership” between China and Russia in 1996.

At the conference held last June participated Iran, Germany, UK and Italy as well as the member

countries. (The picture above shows the conference held in June).19 At the conference, it was

confirmed to promote the negotiation to reconcile the situation in Afghanistan, where complicated

conflicts are still going on. In addition, there were two other points to be noted. Firstly, in regard of

Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Iran was involved as an observer. Obviously, the member

countries recognize that Iran is a country that cannot be ignored when thinking of relations with

Afghanistan and try to come ahead in Afghanistan. At the same time, as having been rejected by the

member countries to attend the conference as well as required to show the concrete date of the

military withdrawal from the Central Asia, the US was critical to the organization and has kept a

cautious attitude toward it. Iran’s sudden approach to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was

the biggest concern for the US. And now, when Iran’s approach is not only a courtesy behavior but

is developing a substantial cooperation, it is very likely that the US, who wants to knock in the

wedge between Iran and the organization, takes an action to approach Iran.

＜Figure1-5：Afghanistan and Shanghai Cooperation Organization＞

（Source：National Diet Library of Japan20）

18 http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2399 19 Ibid. 20 http://www.ndl.go.jp/jp/data/publication/refer/200612_671/067104.pdf


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Secondly, we should not the fact that European countries attended at the very place where this

sudden approach of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to Afghanistan, which is a big concern

for the US, was going on. Although UK, Germany and Italy are members of NATO, they showed a

closed relationship with the countries the US detests. US should follow the consequence with a

great deal of interest.

Thus, when talking about the Afghanistan issues, it has been recognized that Iran, which is more

than just a neighboring country for Afghanistan as it has a especially complicated relations with it,

should be used “as a leverage” for the situation, and the players are now taking actions based on

this notion. That is why the US is appealing the sudden policy change of the attitude toward Iran,

bringing the Afghanistan issues to the fore. “When you are inferior, take offensive action to turn

the tables at a burst” ‒ in M&A activities in the market, this is called a tactics called “Pac-Man

maneuver”, in which the company to be acquired takes offensive action to buy the acquiring

company. The same dynamism is working in the current attitude of the US toward Iran and

Afghanistan.

（4）Conclusion ――― Impact on Markets and its Domestic-Foreign Surroundings

As examined above, Iran is an essential partner for the Obama administration to cope with the

South-West Asia issue, one of their priority themes, to their advantage.21 Certainly, Israel needs

to make Iran a “virtual enemy” for them in the context of their domestic politics, and they could

play the card of “limited air campaign against Iran”. Although the US shows superficial supports to

Israel, it is likely that they are actually working to prevent outbursts of Israel.

Thus, as the Obama administration keeps this soft-landing way to make a good impression in

diplomatic policies, an outburst of geopolitical risk, namely Israel’s air campaign against Iran or

limited air campaign supported by the US is unlikely. Once, the US took offensive attitude toward

Iran because of the nuclear issues. However, as the US is approaching Iran on the pretense of the

Afghanistan issues, it is unlikely that limited air campaign as an outburst of geopolitical risk

triggering a move in the market including gold and crude oil, although this was once widely

concerned.22

However, this will not exclude the possibility of a move in commodity markets because of an

outburst of other factors in the Middle East, Palestine issues in particular. At the same time, if the

South-West Asia issues, the priority theme of the new administration goes amiss for some reason,

21 http://mainichi.jp/select/world/news/20090106dde007030040000c.html 22 Iran has been increasingly engaged in nuclear development including enrichment of uranium with the support of

Russia. Considering that the Afghanistan issue has been one of the biggest geopolitical concerns for Russia, the

US will find the approach of Russia and Iran a grave concern. At the same time, it should be noted that the US has

now a card in the relation with Russia ‒ if Russia shows discomfort regarding the US approach to Iran, it will be

possible for the US to take a strong stance to stop Russia’s support for Iran’s nuclear activities.


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we cannot exclude the possibility that the US will withdraw the cooperative option toward Iran and

take offensive action to make an unsettled situation around Iran and bring turbulence around

markets.

Rather, as the risk asset of the US is now making gigantic losses, when public funding is no longer

possible, the Obama administration might make a declaration of default or take measures to

compress the debt by creating hyper-inflation, it is very likely that the US will drastically change

their positive attitudes toward various issues. In this case, the surprising change will necessarily

trigger a big tide change in markets and the surrounding domestic and international situations. We

should keep watching the situation the US will make around Iran and Afghanistan.

IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc.

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Chapter 2 The Latest Move in the Intelligence and the Military Technology

～Analysis of a Repetition of the Kosovo Conflict Between the U.S and

Germany as a Predictor of the Coming Tide Change～

By Takeo Harada, CEO

（1）Introduction

An apology is drawing attention of the intelligence community ‒ on December 7, the first

“official” apology and regret were shown by the Kosovo government toward the German

government. Three weeks before, on November 14, terrorists let off the bomb on the premises of

the International Civilian Office of European Union Special Representative in Pristine, the capital of

Kosovo. Later, several men arrested by the Kosovo authority turned out to be the agents of BND,

Germany’s intelligence institution (the right picture shows the BND agents released in Pristine).23

The German society was shocked and outraged at the news that the

agents of Germany, one of the main EU member countries, tried to

attack an EU organization, and this became a new headache for the

Merkel administration.

Finally the agents were found innocent and acquitted, and as

mentioned above, in an interview of a German media, Vlora Citaku,

deputy foreign minister of Kosovo expressed an official apology. (Photo: the BND agents released in

Pristine)

Citak repeatedly expressed Kosovo’s hope to deepen the relations with Germany, suggesting

that behind the incident be an intention of a third party who wants to destabilize the relationship

between Kosovo and Germany.24

However, even later, there has been no information about who the third party is. This is quite

natural in the intelligence community, certainly. Still, Pristine is the very place where a nation ‒

Kosovo ‒ became suddenly independent on February 17, 2008. More than that, the city is where in

the last days of the Bill Clinton administration, the last Democrat administration before Obama, the

US carried out large-scale air campaigns (The Kosovo Air Campaign). Therefore, this incident is

essential to analyzing the coming tide change in the world. In this chapter, reviewing and examining

general knowledge regarding Kosovo, which is mentioned in Japan very often, let us see the

predictor of the coming tide change.

23 http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/international/BND-Kosovo;art123,2678957 24 Ibid.


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（2）Mystery of a Leaked BND Classified Report

＜Figure2-1：Kosovo and Neighboring Countries＞

（Source：The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan25）

In fact, on October 26, 2005, three years before this incident, there was a rather strange news

report in a Swiss media ‒ A classified report by BND on Kosovo was leaked.26 The 67-page report

mentions detailed analyses of key figures leading organized crimes committed in Kosovo.

The report includes some very interesting descriptions. For example, Ramush Haradinaj, who

dominates the underground community of Kosovo, broke into a house with some of his men and

fought a gun battle over stolen cocaine. It was a house of the central figure of the hostile mafia over

cocaine trading. According to the report, this had been mentioned in an internal report of CIU, the

UN intelligence agency resident in Kosovo, of the date of December 29, 2003. Although UN

policemen pursued Haradinaj, he got on a helicopter of Italian army with a help of “two apparently

CIA agents” and defected to the US. Then, UN gave up arresting Haradinaj.

After having been trained in the US, he was promised to be given supports by the US to build a

political career after coming back to homeland. Then, actually, Haradinaj was elected as the prime

minister of Kosovo province ending up to form a cabinet.

This classified report on “the key players of the Kosovo underground community” including other

four figures was uploaded on the leak information website “Wikileaks” and is now available for

25 http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/kosovo/index.html 26 http://www.weltwoche.ch/ausgaben/2005-43/artikel-2005-43-rechtsstaat-lieber-nicht.html The following

summary is also taken from the same material.


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anyone to download.27 While Wikileaks has often aroused controversy, the upload of this report

has produced a lot of reactions as a big incident in the intelligence community.

To cope with this situation, the high level of BND required Wikileaks to stop posting the report on

the website.28 The website repelled and the report is still being posted.

（Photo：Standing signboard of the new BND government office in Berlin29）

However, we cannot deny that there is some doubt over such a series of exchanges between

BND and Wikileaks. Firstly, the classified report had first been leaked in the Swiss media as

mentioned earlier. Even though the copy of the report had not been available for anyone then, the

content had already been leaked three years before. The question is why BND is so outraged at

Wikileaks.

Secondly, when reading the report in German, the original language, it is hard to imagine that the

content will cause some damage to BND. Rather, intriguing in the report is that, as mentioned

above, the US intelligence agency’s activities in the underground community in Kosovo ‒ What

intention have CIA had while they have flaunted their influence greater than UN on the ground?

Thus, we see that it is necessary to consider the following points ‒ (1) Why does the US stick to

Kosovo? (2) What kind of relations does Germany have with those intentions and activities of the

US?

（3）Composition of drug concession over Kosovo 27 http://wikileaks.de/wiki/BND_Kosovo_intelligence_report,_22_Feb_2005 28 http://wikileaks.org/wiki/SK 29 Ibid.


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Kosovo is a nation surrounded by mountains. The small nation has an area of 10,887 m2 with

almost no natural resource but Zinc, whose production is one of the biggest in Europe. It is true

that Kosovo has been counted as one of the poorest regions in Europe.30 Even though it is often

said that the US is driven by visible economic interests such as oil and mineral resources, when

taking a look at the reality of Kosovo, it is really difficult to find a proof that the US intends to

explore the nation by the same business model the US has been doing in the world.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the US was the main architect of the independence of Kosovo

forcibly achieved in February in 2008. Very interestingly, Slovenia leaked the classified reports that

show a part of the US activities in their own land ‒ the US used Slovenia in the preparation process

of Kosovo’s independence.31

According to the Swiss media’s news report (entitled “The US Scenario for separating Kosovo”),

at a meeting between a political director of Slovenia’s foreign ministry and American officials (of

State Department and the likes) the US offered positive assessments about the “benefit” of giving

supports for the anti-government activists in hostile nations such as Cuba and Venezuela. In

addition, after explaining that Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov had already expressed the fear over

the scenario toward Kosovo’s independence beforehand, the US officials asked Slovenia to give

approval for Kosovo’s independence at the very first when declared. The US thought that at least

six EU member states would not agree with Kosovo’s independence, and although they wouldn’t

show their agreement beforehand, they would immediately express their support for the

independence once declared.

It is very weird that such a high-level diplomatic negotiation was leaked. However, more striking

is that really bizarre aggressiveness. As mentioned in this paper, actually, the US has been swiftly

working and supporting Kosovo since just after the declaration of independence.

Certainly, it would be possible to say that there are military demand interests behind the move of

the US. In fact, in the statement made just after Kosovo’s declaration of independence, the US

mentioned that exporting weapons to Kosovo was immediately permitted, as Austria pointed out.32

However, there remains doubt that in terms of security for the US how significant Kosovo is

compared to other NATO countries in Eastern Europe such as Bulgaria and Romania.33

According to the report disclosed by the International Ombudsman for Kosovo Marek Novitski in

2005, when he had visited Kosovo in 2000 and 2001, he had witnessed facilities like Guantanamo

Bay detention camp, which had been harshly accused of human rights violations. It is said that the

international human rights organization Amnesty International has pointed out this concern.

30 http://www.kosovo-forum.de/archives/04/2-Kosovo-und-seine-geographische-Lage.html 31 http://schweizmagazin.ch/news/336/ARTICLE/3156/2008-02-21.html 32 http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/371307/index.do?_vl_backlink=/home/politik/index.do 33 Ibid.


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Actually, the US is now closing the detention camps related to the war against terrorism, as if

trying to destroying evidence of human rights violations. Therefore, it would not be illogical to

assume that the US has promoted Kosovo’s independence in order not to let anti-US activists have

the evidence of the fact that the US did that sort of activities.

However, Kosovo has played the most important “role” in drug trading. In fact, officials of

Afghanistan, one of the biggest producers of drugs, have already pointed out this point. For

example, according to Ustad Mohamed Atta Noor, the governor of Balkh province in northern

Afghanistan, the biggest European buyer of opium made in Afghanistan is Kosovo.34 In addition,

when he asked NATO to list up the Kosovo natives having interests in drug trade for promoting

eradication of opium production and trading, the member countries once agreed at it, but the list up

project has never done. The US, the leader of the NATO troops, should have been sick of hearing

the accusation from the drug producing country.

（Photo：Afghanistan farmer working at the opium field35）

However, the politics in Kosovo has been firmly constructed in a way that it is very difficult for

them to quit drug trading. According to the BND classified report mentioned earlier, the current

Interim Prime Minister Hashim Thaci (pictured in the right) 36 was deeply involved in drug trading

in Kosovo at latest until 2003.37 As the interim prime minister, he will never do something that will

cause damage for himself. Thus, the reality is that the drug interest network build up in the

province has been preserved as the nation’s political body, playing a role of the legitimate

independent nation for the public.

Here dear readers will have a question ‒ “I see that Kosovo has been a province closely related to

the drug industry with mafia networks before its independence as a nation. And now, I see that the

US has shown a move to promote the situation, while Germany has shown a move to expose it. Still,

one question remains ‒ Why do the US and Germany secretly fight against each other over

34 http://schweizmagazin.ch/news/336/ARTICLE/5686/2008-09-21.html 35 http://schweizmagazin.ch/news/336/ARTICLE/5686/2008-09-21.html 36 http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%8F%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A0%E3%83%BB%E3%82%B5%E3%83%81 37 Ibid, from page 14.


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Kosovo?”

In this regard, Enrich Schmidt Enbohm’s paper entitled “Kosovo War and Interests ‒ A Note on

Geopolitics (Kosovo-Krieg und Interesse ‒einseitige Anmerkungen zur Geopolitik)” offers a helpful

analysis.38 Let us name a few of his important suggestions as follows.

・ Germany’s BND began to enhance its influence in Albania in the late 1980s, when Turkey

gradually penetrated in Albania. Germany and UCK (Kosovo Liberation Army), which was

mostly organized by Albanians, deepened the relationship for the same reason in the same time.

・ Before then, in 1981 Albanians’ uprising was oppressed, and a number of refugee fled to

European countries, Switzerland and Germany in particular. By setting up a cell organization in

each region and making networks among them, they have constructed a system to circulate

money earned through illegal trading such as drugs.

・ As USK increased its significance, in 1999, CIA put a pressure to BND to withdraw from the

cooperative relationship with UCK. This situation is the same as the phenomenon happened in

Serbia in 1993. Thus, CIA obtained the networks of agents BND had fostered for almost ten

years.

UCK “officially” dissolved itself on September 20, 1999.Whether the dissolution was true or not,

now it is possible to see that the US and Germany have been involved in UCK and the vast

networks of Albanian behind it.

And now, in this context, it is possible to understand the true meaning of the bizarre incident in

November in 2008 and apology in December.

（4）Impact of Kosovo Conflict as a New Flashpoint in the Intelligence Community

to the Market

In this section, we will examine the impact of the possible Kosovo conflict as a new flashpoint

suggested in the sudden moves in the intelligence community from Kosovo’s declaration of

independence in February in 2008 through December.

Firstly, whether it is true or not that CIA, which is said to have deprived BND of the close

relationship with Albanian military group, has been behind the scene of the recent incidents, we

should note that one thins has become clear. By the terrorist incident prepared by someone, it

became clear that it is possible to unsettle the German politics, which is already shaken by the

38 http://www.geheimdienste.info/texte/Kosovo.pdf This is the official site of Institute of Peace and Politics

(Forschungsinstitut für Friedenspolitik), public interest cooperation in Germany.


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financial meltdown, through this channel.

Not for the market, but for parties competing with Germany in significant sectors, this channel

is a newly found and very convenient vulnerability of Germany. For the country that has accepted a

number of refugees from Kosovo from the 1980s, the Kosovo issue is nothing but the Achilles heel.

And now, when such problems escalate, the politics is confused, and Germany can be fall behind in

coping with the financial meltdown, which must have been separated from the problems under

normal circumstances. As the breakdown of the European economy and the fall of Euro are very

likely at the moment, the situation in Germany should be watched.

Secondly, as mentioned in Chapter 3, if the Afghanistan issues is settled as the US unexpectedly

build up a cooperative relationship with Iran, drug interests in Afghanistan will be cleaned up by the

leadership of the US, regardless of what is going on officially. In this case, the US will have the

power of life and death of Kosovo more than ever, while the US will have more power over European

Union, as this can be a strong card against EU over Kosovo issues. It should be noted that,

although European countries has undeniably taken the leadership in creating a new financial system

and world order since the financial summit in November in 2008 in Washington, the US can wield a

big influence against them by using the Kosovo issues.

Thirdly, just like Germany there is a country going against the move of the US ‒ it is Russia.

Deepening influence of the US into Kosovo is never acceptable for Russia, as the independence of

Kosovo is actually a decrease of the territory of the pro-Russian country Serbia. Although at the

meeting on April 6, 2009 the US and Russia filed the US Russia Strategic Framework Declaration,

this issue has never been solved.39 In the coming years, the Obama administration will develop

package deals with Russia. However, when the US pushes the things in their direction regarding

Kosovo’s independence, Russia can decide to accept it or not on their own. In fact, this can be a

card for Russia against the US. Certainly, the battle over Kosovo will have more significance, such

as a possibility of Russia’s investment into the US (through the Sovereign Wealth Fund) in the

midst of the worsening financial meltdown, and the influence to Russia’s supply cut of natural gas to

Ukraine in the freezing winter.

In the midst of the once-in-a-hundred-years change of the world system, it shouldn’t been

forgotten that the Kosovo Conflict is not only an ethic problem widely discussed so far but also a

great power game including drug interests by big countries. The people of Kosovo have long been in

the shadow of the international community comparing to great powers, However, in fact, they have

constructed underground networks in Europe and even in the US and now could change the history

unintentionally.

39 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/04/20080406-4.html


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