IISS news December 2015

The 2015 IISS Manama Dialogue, in common with the 2013 and 2014 Dialogues, opened with a panel debate moderated and televised by Sky News Arabia. The 2015 theme was ‘Extremism, Stability, and Development: the future of the Middle East’. It brought together some familiar regional themes concerning the causes of the extremism and insta-bility prevalent across the Middle East, but also explored the possibilities and challenges of a new, more holistic, approach to tackling them. The three Arab participants brought their different perspec-tives from across the region, while the former New Zealand Prime Minister, Helen Clark, now the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), explored both the opportuni-ties and potential problems arising from a develop-mental approach to dealing with the crises across the Middle East.

The debate opened with the question of how to tackle extremism more effectively, consider-ing that much effort has already been expended, seemingly with little to show for it. The Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, insisted that what is hap-pening does not reflect the will of the people of the region. He introduced what was to become a broad theme in the discussion, that intervention from outside – and in particular the 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath – had created a vacuum in which extremism had developed. Dr Al Zayani insisted that the persistence of the Israeli–Pales-tinian problem remained a key driver of extrem-ism and had to be addressed. He also argued that extremism is not just a problem of Muslim youth contained within the region, but is now present across all regions.

For the Foreign Minister of Yemen, Riyadh Yaseen, the current problems in his country stem from a former head of state, an internal rebellion, and the involvement of an external power, Iran. He also argued that extremism now has taken on a different form from previous years, and compared to the challenges posed by al-Qaeda and Hizbul-lah, with new groups wanting to become major players. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tunisia, Dr Taïeb Baccouche, focused on the intervention in Libya as the catalyst for the problems in Tuni-sia’s neighbourhood, and the collapse of a central authority there. Dr Baccouche argued that new institutions need to be fostered quickly in Libya and elsewhere, or there will be growing extremist alliances through Africa involving groups such as Boko Haram and al-Shabaab, with repercussions throughout the region and in Europe.

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The 11th IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

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Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf; Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme; Dr Taïeb Baccouche, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia; Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

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Clark addressed the role that develop-ment can play in combating these challenges. She argued that extremism in the form of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham is a twenty-first century phenomenon, drawing on tech-nology to groom and recruit jihadists online; those seeking to counter the threat have not yet matched this level of sophistication. She under-scored the relevance of a sustainable develop-ment agenda, as inextricably linked with a peace agenda, and essential for the region with its burgeoning youth demographic. Clark stressed the importance of education but cau-tioned that it was equally important to ensure that a good education will lead to good job opportunities, otherwise it would become a source of frustration.

Turning to the Iran nuclear deal, Dr Al Zayani said that he hoped that the unfreezing of Iranian assets would lead to greater prosperity for the Iranian people, rather than increased meddling by Iran in the affairs of other states. Mr Yaseen contrasted Iran’s intervention in Yemen, which he said had had no positive effect, with that of the GCC, which he welcomed. Clark, taking up the theme of stabilising Yemen, said that the UNDP is already working on a long-term post-crisis needs assessment which should involve not just rebuilding key physical infrastructure, but also society.

Baccouche rejected the notion that Tuni-sia exports extremism and defended his gov-ernment’s policy response to the threat of extremism, including the temporary closure of mosques, which he said had been taken over by militias. He acknowledged that this was contro-versial. Additional measures included religious education and monitoring of the internet, as well as efforts to improve the economy. Addressing the problem of extremism across the Maghreb, he made an implicit appeal for assistance by noting that technical capabilities were needed to properly control borders, but argued that the heart of the problem was in Libya, not Tunisia.

In response to questions from the audi-ence, Dr Al Zayani defended differing GCC approaches to counterterrorism, and high-lighted the initiative of the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in 2005 to create an international centre to combat terrorism with US$110 million in funding. One intervention from the audience called on the Gulf Arab leaders to be more open to accepting constructive criticism and a freer press. But the GCC Secretary General insisted that Gulf Arab leaders are very accessible and that the media should raise its standards of accuracy.

Keynote SpeechThe President of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, delivered the Keynote Address of the eleventh IISS Manama Dialogue. Focusing on the threats of terrorism and extrem-ism, Al-Sisi warned that Middle Eastern states and the regional order were both at risk. He stressed that Arab nation-states are endangered by ‘foreign militias and organisations’ that chal-lenge the foundations of modern governance and authority. He bemoaned the weakening or collapse of the rule of law in several Arab coun-tries and the emergence of ‘sectarian, religious, local and other conflicts’. As a result, individu-als and groups are resorting to narrow identities instead of seeking the protection of the state. In particular, Al-Sisi denounced the manipulation of sectarianism by groups with specific political agendas that ran counter to the cohesion of Arab societies and the authority of the state. This, he argued, has had a detrimental impact on the ‘role and prestige’ of the state.

Al-Sisi then condemned the hijacking of Arab uprisings by ‘certain currents employ-ing religion for their own political purposes’, a clear reference to the Muslim Brotherhood. He lamented that ‘some believed that these currents were politically moderate and able to contain the aspirations of their people and able to contain and channel the forces of extremism and terrorism’. Al-Sisi claimed that [Islamist movements] ‘did not understand the history of Arab societies nor did [they] strive to achieve the aims of their revolutions’. These movements sought to monopolise politics and parted with

the historical moderation of Arab societies, and quickly came closer to more extremist organisa-tions. He also regretted that some outside ‘par-ties’ betted on their success, putting at risk Arab national security.

The state response to these challenges, Al-Sisi argued, should range beyond military confrontation and security arrangements: it is necessary to address the economic and social aspirations of citizens. He argued that a poor socio-economic situation adversely affects a population’s notion of the state and blurs the difference between state and government. ‘National security in the Arab world is so threat-ened that it now requires – demands – the pro-tection of what remains of the states and their institutions, and the renewal of Arab citizens’ faith in the ability to live together in a state that is cognisant of their rights and has the ability to protect them,’ Al-Sisi emphasised.

Regionally, Al-Sisi reasserted Egypt’s com-mitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state within the June 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as capital. This, he said, would undercut the appeal of extremism. He also reaf-firmed Egypt’s support for UN efforts to settle the Libyan crisis through the establishment of a national unity government that recognises the results of previous elections.

Regarding the Syrian conflict, Al-Sisi reiter-ated Egypt’s support for UN resolution efforts, and called for a political settlement that involved regional and international powers. He stressed the importance of pursuing the fight against ter-rorist groups in Syria. He noted Egypt’s efforts

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Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt

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to create a unified vision among Syrian oppo-sition forces, notably by hosting conferences and encouraging the adoption of a road map toward a negotiated political solution, without external interference. A Syrian settlement must be inclusive and produce a healthy relationship between the state and its citizens, he said.

The president added that Egypt also sup-ported the efforts of its Gulf allies to aid the gov-ernment of Yemen against what he described as ‘the forces of terrorism and extremism.’ It is important, he said, to preserve the country’s cohesion and integrity. Al-Sisi concluded by emphasising Egypt’s readiness to contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region. He noted Egypt’s attachment to the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of sov-ereign states and welcomed international and regional cooperation based on this principle.

First Plenary Session: US Policy and Regional SecurityDeputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken led off the first plenary session, ‘US Policy and Regional Security,’ with a defence of US policy as the art of the possible. He derided the ‘now fashionable’ argument ‘that the United States is disengaged from the Middle East’. The chal-lenges in the region ‘defy silver-bullet solu-tions’, he said, but in a ‘broader definition of engagement’, using ‘all sources of American power’, including military power, the Ameri-can commitment remains strong. To be sure, he added, the Obama administration still insists on heeding the ‘lessons we’ve learned over a decade of sacrifice about the effectiveness and sustainability of indefinite and undefined mili-tary interventions that have vast unintended consequences’.

Blinken defended the Iran nuclear deal, arguing that ‘after two years of negotiations, every single one of Iran’s pathways to a bomb is blocked … far into the future.’ But he also insisted that the administration harboured ‘no illusions’ about the agreement’s wider signifi-cance. The US remained focused on Iran’s sup-port for terrorism and instigation of regional instability, and would meet those challenges with intensive security cooperation, including the linking up of missile-defence systems on the Arabian Peninsula, special-operations training, bolstered cyber security and sales of advanced military equipment to most of the Gulf Arab states.

Blinken coupled this security coopera-tion with an optimistic assessment of progress against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

(ISIS) by a coalition that ‘didn’t exist’ 14 months earlier. With the aid of more than 7,700 air-strikes, the coalition had forced ISIS ‘to change how it conducts military operations, impeded its command and control, confronted its propa-ganda machine, and deprived it of 30% of the territory in Iraq that it once held’.

The deputy secretary spoke against the back-drop of Russia’s recent intervention in Syria. He suggested that the ‘law of unintended conse-quences’ might recoil against Moscow: the inter-vention had ‘increased Russia’s leverage over Assad’, but it would also ‘increase the conflict’s leverage over Russia’. In Blinken’s optimistic interpretation, this would increase the Russian interest in a political solution, and the US was ready to work with Russia on common interests, including preserving Syrian unity and defeating ISIS. But the US would still insist on a ‘political transition that leads to [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s] departure’.

Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, in his address rejected the notion that the fight against ISIS should take precedence over a solution to the Syrian civil war ‘as outlined in the Geneva I Peace Conference’. The extremist group, he added, was a symptom not a cause of the Syrian crisis. ‘There are those who will say that we must defeat Daesh [ISIS] first, before any of this can take place, but Daesh can only be defeated by a unified Syrian front against it.’

The foreign minister insisted that ISIS was ‘not the only terrorist threat we face in the region’, and pointed to Iran’s continued sup-

port for terrorist groups including Hizbullah. In Bahrain, he said, Iran had ‘conducted smug-gling operations to bring in explosives and weapons, including C4 Claymore mines and AK-47 assault rifles’. GCC states were ready to improve relations with Iran, but it would be difficult ‘when Iranian officials publicly boast about having captured four Arab capi-tals’. Just as Iran’s nuclear program was con-tained and ‘hopefully pacified’ by international action, there was a need for international unity and vigilance against the problems ‘caused by Iran’s actions in the region’. In that regard, he defended the GCC intervention in Yemen to prevent ‘an extremist proxy movement with ties to Iran and Hizbullah’ from taking power.

Sheikh Khalid concluded by warning that recent violence in Jerusalem had the potential to ‘anger almost a third of the world’s population,’ and called on the Israeli government to live up to the agreement with Jordan on jurisdiction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

In the Q&A session that followed, Dr Albadr Al Shateri asked Sheikh Khalid whether he believed the nuclear deal had ‘emboldened’ Iran, and he challenged Deputy Secretary Blinken on whether the US, even if it remained focused on ‘strategic areas like the Gulf’, was in fact disengaging from the quest for a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Sheikh Khalid said that, so far, he had not per-ceived any change in Iran’s behaviour in the region since the deal was announced. Blinken responded that cooperation between the US and Gulf Arab countries did embody ‘a clear vision’

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Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Antony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, US

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of joint work to counter Iranian threats. He like-wise insisted the US was fully committed to supporting a settlement of the Israel–Palestine conflict but noted that ‘we cannot want peace more than the parties themselves’.

Blinken’s assessment of Russian staying power and future conduct was also questioned pointedly by Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS, and Bloomberg colum-nist Josh Rogin. Blinken responded that Assad ‘cannot win and take back his country’, and so Russia will come to understand that there is no military solution to keeping him in power. He also noted, in response to comments suggesting that US military action against ISIS had been ineffective, that the group’s forward momen-tum in Iraq had been halted and that it con-trolled 30% less territory than a year ago.

Second Plenary Session: The Region after the Nuclear NegotiationsSaudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adel Al Jubeir, opened the second session on ‘The Region after the Nuclear Negotiations’ by wel-coming the accord as a means of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Yet the jury is out on whether the deal will have a positive impact by integrating Iran with the region. It is Iran’s choice whether to use for productive or destructive purposes the funds freed up by the lifting of sanctions, he said.

Jubeir noted the remaining challenges asso-ciated with Syria, Iraq, Yemen and terrorism. He outlined each but, ‘as an optimist’, also described the opportunities presented by the

region’s economic development and invest-ment, youth and technology. On Syria, he said the just-concluded nine-hour meeting in Vienna, which included Iran for the first time, reached agreement on a number of issues: the importance of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, the need for all ethnic and religious groups and minorities to enjoy pro-tection and rights, and new elections based on the Geneva I principles. The two fundamental issues on which the parties remained at odds concerned the timing of the departure of Assad and the timing and means of the withdrawal of foreign – particularly Iranian – forces. Regard-ing Yemen, Jubeir spoke positively about forces supporting the legitimate government having reclaimed most of the country and freed up ports for humanitarian assistance.

Dr Nabil El Araby, Secretary General of the Arab League, regretted that the Iran nuclear deal did not cover the whole Middle East and address Israel’s nuclear programme. Nor did the deal address any aspect of Iran’s interven-tion in Syria. Expanding on the Palestine issue, El Araby characterised the issue as a legal question of one party – Israel – needing to ful-fill its obligations. He urged the international community to take responsibility for ending the conflict. Both in Palestine and in Syria, the Security Council has abjured its responsibility due to the veto system. El Araby recommended that the entire collective-security system of the UN be reviewed.

Dr Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, asked about the preferred

timing for Assad’s departure. Ideally, this afternoon, Jubeir replied. The Saudis hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin used Assad’s visit to Moscow to persuade him it is time to accept a political transition. Answering another question, Jubeir described the Vienna talks as productive because all issues were put on the table and there were no holds barred.

Frank Gardner, the BBC Security Correspon-dent, asked El Araby if he regretted the Arab League’s request in 2011 for international mili-tary intervention in Libya. ‘No’ was the answer, because of the importance of helping Libya at the time. The mistake was the international community’s subsequent failure to follow up by helping build institutions and collect arms. In response to a question from Faisal Abbas, Edi-tor-in-Chief of the English service of Al Arabiya News, El Araby said the call of the Arab League last March to establish a joint Arab military force was very important, and that some mat-ters still needed to be discussed before the force could be declared ready.

In a second round of the Q&A, Raghida Dergham, Executive Chairman of the Beirut Institute and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent of Al Hayat, asked about the muted 18–24-month timing of a political-transition period for Syria. Jubeir said the thinking is that an interim governing council could be in place in four to six months but that holding an election in Syria might take 18 months. Meanwhile, Assad should leave at the beginning of this process.

Responding to questions about the US com-mitment to the Gulf region, Jubeir painted a positive picture: the number of US troops deployed there is almost at a record high and the decisions reached between the US and GCC states at Camp David with regard to intelli-gence sharing, cyber security, ballistic-missile defence and maritime patrols are all being implemented via ongoing working groups. He said America’s commitment to the security of Gulf countries is at an all-time high and that the ‘historic and strategic’ relationship in all areas has gone from strength to strength. The GCC states were regularly briefed about the nuclear negotiations by senior US officials. And Saudi Arabia has decided to open an embassy in Baghad and a consulate in Erbil.

Third Plenary Session: The Challenges of ExtremismThe third plenary session focused on ‘The Challenges of Extremism’ in the region. Philip Hammond, the United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs,

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Nabil El Araby, Secretary General, League of Arab StatesAdel Al Jubeir, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

MANAMA DIALOGUE MIDDLE EAST

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argued that the struggle against extremist Islamist terrorism was existential in the Gulf region, but affected the UK as well. Islamist extremism, the Secretary of State suggested, had deep roots and a wide reach because it was based on a corrupt interpretation of religion. The extreme doctrine espoused by ISIS sought to destroy nation states and replace them with its so-called caliphate, Hammond said. It was necessary, he argued, to defeat the group both militarily and ideologically, if a lasting victory was to be secured.

Thereafter Hammond dwelt on UK plans to tackle extremism at home, through an approach based on four strands: countering the ideology of extremism, building social cohe-sion, supporting moderate mainstream voices and disrupting the extremists wherever they seek to operate. He conceded that the UK had pursued well-intended policies in the past that might inadvertently have nurtured the threat that now needed to be confronted.

Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, reminded the audience of his country’s long struggle against extrem-ism. Now ISIS was trying to expand its base in the country. A network of terrorist organ-isations that included al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the East Turke-stan Islamic Movement also sought to destabi-lise Afghanistan. The country’s armed forces, he noted, still lack critical enablers and remain in need of international support.

Rabbani argued it was of critical impor-tance to strengthen efforts to counter extrem-

ist narratives. In Afghanistan, the government was open to peace talks with armed oppo-nents, provided they were ready to renounce violence. He emphasised that, in light of the regional and global dimensions of Afghani-stan’s fight against extremism, it was vital that the international community stayed the course. Otherwise the hard-earned gains of recent years could be lost.

Dr Khaled Khoja, President of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, insisted that the principal cause of extremism in Syria was the govern-ment’s heavy military response to demands for change. The Syrian regime, Khoja argued, undertook steps to attract or at least enable extremists in Syria to bolster its narrative that the government was fighting terrorism rather than a legitimate uprising. As a result of the fighting, Syrian national identity had been destroyed, with the country divided along ethnic and sectarian lines.

Khoja stated that the failure of the interna-tional community to protect civilians in Syria amounted to a regional and global failure. A new national project to unite the country is needed, he argued, and the opposition must fight extremism, protect civilians, establish basic governance and deliver rudimentary services. In Khoja’s view, Iranian and Russian meddling in the crisis made this even more difficult to achieve.

In the ensuing debate, Khoja suggested that Ba’ath party affiliates were actively involved in ISIS. He reminded the audience of the impor-

tance of building grassroots support to create a new future for Syria. Kwon Hee-seog, Director-General, African and Middle Eastern Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, focused his question on Afghanistan and enquired about the possibility of involving elders in counter-extremism policies. Rabbani responded that jirgas were an important tool for addressing extremism and that Afghans could draw on their country’s heritage of tolerance.

Many questions were addressed to Ham-mond, and regarded the UK’s counter-extrem-ism strategy. Walid Abukhaled, Chief Execu-tive for Saudi Arabia, Northrop Grumman Corporation, asked whether the UK risked giving the impression that it was fighting Islam. Hammond said there was a clear dis-tinction between Islam and extremism – but also that policymakers could not effectively tackle the latter if the failed to acknowledge the link to Islam and the religious authority that extremists claimed for themselves. He went on to stress the importance of disrupting the flow of money and fighters from the UK to Syria and on developing convincing counter- narratives that would combat ISIS ideologi-cally. Dr Hisham Hellyer, Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institute, asked whether the UK strategy’s provisions for revoking the Brit-ish citizenship of extremists might undermine societal cohesion. Hammond responded that the provision applied to dual nationals who attacked the values which British society was based on; it was an important tool for the gov-ernment, he insisted.

INSURGENCY FRANCE IRAQ MANAMA DIALOGUE

Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan

Dr Khaled Khoja, President, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

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Fourth Plenary Session: Conflicts and Coalitions in the Middle EastThe fourth plenary, entitled ‘Conflicts and Coa-litions in the Middle East’, distilled the 2015 Dialogue’s prevailing mood, urging collec-tive action at the same time as acknowledging the difficulties of choosing both partners and targets. The session’s keynote speakers were drawn from a country playing host to some of the region’s most virulent conflicts, and another dragged headlong into a common cause with it by the side effects of Middle East turmoil. The latter, Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minis-ter of Defence of Germany, put the predicament bluntly: ‘we have too many violent conflicts, and we have far too few coalitions to stop or control them … The regional order seems to be collapsing.’ Yet, as she and others pointed out, there is much to unite both regional states as a group and extra-regional parties with those in the Middle East.

Europe, said Von der Leyen, shares three core interests with the states of the Middle East: fighting terrorism; reinstating order, economic development and stability; and providing the people of the region with a viable future. Yet shared interests have not easily led to common action, however, and there are dangers in con-flating similar but separate problems.

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence of Iraq, warned against defining the problems to be solved in Iraq and Syria in the same way, pointing to the Iraqi constitution, parliamentary system and elected national government as dif-ferentiating political characteristics.

Opening the debate, Von der Leyen insisted that for Europe indifference to the Syria conflict was not an option, saying Euro-peans ‘are not simply spectators’. Referring to the wave of refugees entering Europe, she stated emphatically that Germany, as a matter of its constitutional identity, would not ‘slam the door’. Yet, as South Korean Ambassador for National Security Affairs Lee Chung Min noted, the political task of maintaining a con-sensus for fighting ISIS while accepting the costs of accepting refugees is not an easy one. Von der Leyen stressed the need for a col-lective approach from the European Union, an institution created to solve problems that member states could not solve individually. ‘Solidarity’, said Von der Leyen, ‘means that, in tough times, we share burdens’. She identi-fied a quid pro quo: European states receive people fleeing for their lives, and invest in their education and integration; those people contribute to their country of refuge, and one day, after the return of peace, again contribute to their country of origin.

The complexities of the military response to ISIS preoccupied the keynote speakers and many participants from the floor. Al Obeidi’s prescription was clear: military action against ISIS would have to come first, only then to be followed by non-military efforts. But ques-tioners were unwilling to conceive of military action as inherently apolitical. The IISS’s Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Bloomberg’s Josh Rogin both pressed the min-ister on the question of Iranian influence: does

the Iraqi government control Iranian-backed popular militias, or is it the other way around? Al Obeidi answered by distinguishing between the government-controlled Popular Mobilisa-tion Forces, an institution answering to the Iraqi prime minister, with an independent budget, working often in combination with the regular Iraqi armed forces – and other ‘illegal’ armed militias.

The regular Iraqi armed forces are them-selves under considerable strain. Al Obeidi noted that they had suffered a significant set-back in the summer of 2014 under the advance of ISIS, and were not helped by the financial pressure of a collapse in the price of oil. Iraq’s military needs help, he declared, from regional and international partners. Nor will it be easy, as Al Obeidi conceded in response to a ques-tion from IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge, to push forward the development of the Iraqi National Guard.

For Von der Leyen, the Middle East today demands ‘a new partnership of dedication’: joint political will, an understanding of whom to fight and whom to protect, and an effort to foster development. The difficulties in such an approach are well known; one, as a number of participants pointed out, is the challenge of addressing the regional deficit of inclusive gov-ernance. But the Manama Dialogue was pre-sented by Al Obeidi with a specific call to action: a defence dialogue between the Gulf’s armies and national institutions, with the aim of build-ing a common strategy. This would range from information exchange and joint exercises to the theatre of operations itself; its outputs could include strategies for the administration of bor-ders and shared waters, a common approach to displaced persons and refugees, and post-conflict reconstruction. ‘An anti-terrorism agree-ment among the Gulf’s coastal states’, Al Obeidi concluded, ‘would be a fundamental pillar of defensive arrangements for the entire Middle East’.

Fifth Plenary Session: Managing Conflict SpilloverNohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities of Lebanon — a state that has suffered greatly as a result of the Syrian conflict — spoke first in the fifth plenary session, titled ‘Managing Conflict Spillover’. He surveyed the local, regional and international conflicts that beset Lebanon: the Arab–Israeli struggle; Iranian regional meddling; and the threat of ‘extremist takfiri’ groups such as ISIS. Previ-ously, he said, extremist groups operated in

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Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence, Iraq

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secret. Today, they produce oil, mint coins and control territory.

Machnouk expressed the hope that, as other powers had abandoned Syria, Russia would be able to help craft a political settlement, but he acknowledged that the chances were slim. Leba-non’s government, he said, had succeeded in limiting the impact of the Syrian conflict on Leb-anese territory by achieving national solidarity and greater coordination among security agen-cies, and by promoting moderation in political and religious discourse. The government has extended its authority across national territory, ending the effects of war in northern Lebanon, Machnouk said. However, efforts to extend this into territory controlled by Hizbullah have been frustrated.

In Lebanon today, there is one refugee for every three citizens, the minister noted, and the country has welcomed and incorporated them despite the huge challenges. He noted, however, that Hizbullah’s involvement in the Syrian war had provoked a reaction in Lebanon in support of the Syrian revolution, and with it the growth of extremist cells in Lebanon.

Two themes permeated the minister’s address; the first was moderation. He noted that Lebanon sorely needed a head of state after almost two years without one, and called on all those present to desist from pressing for a change in the constitutional arrangement that reserves the presidency for a Christian — in times of extremism in the Arab world, this dispensation is more necessary than ever, he argued. Mod-

eration is also integral to more effective man-agement of the region’s political, security and economic problems, according to Machnouk. He noted that it was the tribes of Iraq that defeated al-Qaeda, and that ISIS only took control of parts of the country after sectarian actors had margin-alised them and divided society.

The second theme was regional and interna-tional cooperation. Arab states must not retreat into unilateralism, but should rather create a solid strategic alliance. Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen is a good example of cooperation, and without it there would have been no progress in the conflict. Likewise, extra-regional states should focus on solving the Syrian conflict, he added, arguing that this was a better use of their resources than squabbling over how many refu-gees each European state might receive.

Crispin Blunt, Chairman of the UK House of Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, began by noting that the session title did not do jus-tice to the ‘death, destitution and displacement borne by the millions’ in the region. He noted the role of Britain and other external powers in laying the foundation for many contempo-rary conflicts in the region, and their imperfect response to the Arab spring, ‘which has turned to winter without a hint of summer or autumn in between’.

Blunt noted that America’s will to inter-vene in the region is limited, and that there is no superpower ready and willing to take up its burden. Thus the time has come, he argued, for regional powers – Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia

and Egypt – to come of age. These states must become a P4, to give regional problems the con-sistent attention that the five permanent mem-bers of the UN Security Council cannot.

The rest of Blunt’s remarks focused on the principal form of conflict spillover: displace-ment. All refugees should have been accom-modated in neighbouring countries, assisted properly by the whole international commu-nity, he said. The developed world failed to give Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon the support they were entitled to, and now it has suffered the consequences of inaction in the form of Europe’s refugee crisis.

On that point too, Blunt felt serious errors had been made. The EU failed to show solidar-ity with its front-line, southern member states, who struggled without support. Thereafter, Germany’s ‘entirely decent human response’, opening its borders to refugees, encouraged millions more — not only from Syria, but many afflicted countries — to try their luck in Europe. The correct policy now, he said, was to take the pressure off refugee camps in the region, by moving the most deserving people to Europe, but doing so in a way that did not encourage broader population movement. At the outset of the Syrian conflict, the focus should have been on giving people hope that they could return home in a reasonable space of time. If frag-ile and conflict-torn states lose their best and brightest people, they will have more difficulty in building institutions and economies that are resistant to conflict.

CANADA MANAMA DIALOGUEUNITED KINGDOM

Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon; John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Crispin Blunt, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Commons, UK

8 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

TERRORISM AND SECURITY GEOPOLITICS

The second special session, titled ‘GCC Defence Posture and External Powers‘, was convened at a time when GCC member states were on active military operations in Yemen and over Syria. The session provided an opportunity to reflect on the current state and future trajec-tory of regional military cooperation, as well as the requirements of GCC defence forces and the role of external powers.

The region faces significant security chal-lenges from rising extremism, the presence of armed militias and Iran. Growing insta-bility across the region has multiple causes, including the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq, security crises following the Arab Spring, rising sectarian strife, and inattention and incapacity on the part of the international com-munity. The imperatives for cooperation were greater than they were before, it was argued.

The history of GCC military cooperation was outlined, as was that of external powers’ military involvement in the region. Indeed, it was argued that the confluence of rising security threats, and a relative decline in inter-national military attention had led regional

states to take action themselves. These new activities involved increased military coopera-tion. Within the GCC, there was a convergence of interests that afforded an opportunity to strengthen the ties, including defence relation-ships, between nations.

Yemen, one participant said, was a cru-cible for future cooperation. These operations would allow the region’s forces to consider areas requiring improvement. The new GCC Joint Military Command, agreed in late 2014, would build on the coordination and coopera-tion seen in the Peninsula Shield Force.

Growing defence cooperation, through organisational changes and military opera-tions, was leading GCC states to reconsider defence and military strategies. There was increasing security and intelligence coopera-tion, and states were looking to improve the efficiency of their defence forces by enhancing training at all levels, unifying command-and-control, and developing organisational and equipment inter-operability.

External powers could help in this process. With long-standing experience of working in

coalitions, and through NATO, both the UK and US could bring this knowledge to bear in help-ing GCC states develop their joint-operational capability. Meanwhile, assistance, in the form of training and other support – or procurements – was designed to build capability and empower local forces, and could help boost the inter-operability of armed forces. Indeed, growing inter-operability was already evident: on the first night of coalition air operations against ISIS over Syria, five Middle Eastern air forces took part, and four were able to use munitions. The significant political and military commitments in the region by outside powers showed that security in the region was important to them; indeed, for some, Gulf security was indistin-guishable from their own security.

Special Session 2: GCC DEFENCE POSTURE AND EXTERNAL POWERS

The UAE offloads a BMP3 tank from its Elbahia L62 landing craft at a Kuwaiti port (US Navy/Joseph Krypel)

Special Session 1: THE FUTURE OF YEMEN

The first special session considered ‘The Future of Yemen’ and the challenges of ending the civil war in the country. In keeping with other conflicts in the region, re-establishing stability in Yemen has security and economic implications beyond its border. This is in part the reason why the Saudi-led coalition inter-vened to support the faltering government of Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which teetered on the brink of collapse in the face of an offensive by Houthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. The coalition states have also been concerned by Iran’s pro-

vision of military support to the insurgents, which has included arms shipments.

While the fighting in the Yemen involves the major regional powers, directly or indi-rectly, it should not be viewed primarily as a proxy war, nor indeed as a classic sectarian conflict, suggested some long-term observers. Rather, they argued, it ought to be viewed as a tribal power play.

The Arab intervention force led by Saudi Arabia is pursuing a multi-faceted approach, it was argued. In parallel to the military cam-paign, which has the ultimate aim of liberating

territory under the control of the Houthis, there is also the intent to relaunch a political process. The hoped-for end of the conflict will also require a considerable reconstruction effort, with the north and the south of the country a particular focus. These areas have been central to the insur-gency.

A key element of any solu-tion will be UN Security Council

Resolution 2216, which the Houthis and other opposition leaders indicated they would accept. This paved the way for agreeing a further round of peace talks, the agenda, date and format of which were under discussion as the Manama Dialogue was taking place. To have any chance of success, some contend, the primary focus of all involved must shift from the military to the political arena. Full inclusivity is also a pre-requisite for the talks’ success, while the Houthis need to negotiate in good faith. Within the Hadi government there remains mistrust of the Houthis and Saleh. Given this, there is also a keen inter-est in rebuilding the military and the security institutions. UNSCR 2216 includes a provi-sion for deploying observers or peace-keeping forces if this is deemed necessary.

One option, floated by some as potentially addressing the concerns of all involved par-ties, is the creation of a federal Yemen, based on six regions. This could provide a level of autonomy to those areas now at the heart of the insurgency.Sana’a, Yemen’s capital (Ferdinand Reus)

MANAMA DIALOGUE

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 9

DEFENCE POLICY DEFENCE ECONOMICS MANAMA DIALOGUEGULF STATES

The third session, ‘Stabilising Weak States’, addressed a topic – state fragility, failure and weakness – that permeated nearly all discus-sions at the Dialogue. While state weakness and fragility is a global phenomenon, with no region unaffected, it is a particular problem in the Middle East. The cases of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Libya stand out.

Panellists agreed that there was a close rela-tionship between the failings of the state and the incidence of conflict, which can become a vicious spiral as deprivation and insecurity fuel further violence. In Syria, 5.6m young people lack access to education. The Gadhafi regime in Libya was toppled without any plan for replacing it. International support was insufficient, and thereafter regional states pursued narrow agendas and interfered with the state-building process, preventing the authorities from developing the mechanisms to stabilise a tribal society. Militias filled the void, and the lack of economic opportunity has facilitated recruitment by armed groups. Development is the solution.

A large part of the dis-cussion focused on relief efforts. Bahrain coordi-nates the Arab response to Syria’s humanitar-ian disaster and the EU is engaged with relief, development efforts and conflict-resolution initia-tives that have gained little traction. Numerous proposals for improv-ing policy responses were made, including sustained development efforts conducted alongside relief initiatives, to break the cycle of state weakness, insecurity and conflict; better coordination between host governments and international agencies delivering aid and development; and a detailed, bottom-up understanding of the drivers of weakness and fragility.

The session also considered political settle-ments in Libya and Syria. A common element

was the need to recognise and accommodate centrifugal forces through decentralisation, federation or de facto partition. In Syria, the areas controlled by the Kurds, ISIS and the regime are to varying extents considered to be economically and political viable, and militarily defendable, although the positive prospects for each would lessen if allied sup-port waned or the military threats to them increased.

Special Session 3: STABILISING WEAK STATES

The fourth session, ‘The Role of Political Islamism’, focused on two sources of tension: between the concepts of Islam as a faith versus Islam as political ideology, and between the modern nation state and the absolutist nature of political Islamism. Participants were divided in their definitions of ‘political Islamism’, and only agreed that there were myriad interpre-tations of it. But examples of parties whose political programme, were founded on Islamic

teachings included the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and an-Nahda. These organisations had adapted their ideologies to the secular political process and contested elections.

The concept of political Islamism had not been applied successfully to the governance of a nation state. It was suggested that this was because it allowed little room for pluralism and had failed to win the hearts of the population beyond its traditional support base. One pan-

ellist suggested that, rather than being preoccupied by questions of ideology, most individuals were instead focused on more parochial issues, such as money, their health and social services. It was not for the state to restrict each citizen’s right to pursue their faith.

It was argued that one of the failings of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was that it had considered the country to be part of an

overarching Muslim Brotherhood movement, rather than regarding itself as part of the fabric of the Egyptian nation. If political Islamist par-ties were to have any success in government in the future, they needed to be more pragmatic in embracing pluralism; non-Islamist actors, meanwhile, needed to develop inclusive sys-tems of government.

The rise of ISIS and its establishment of a ‘caliphate’ added a further layer of complexity to debates about the relationship between the state and political Islamism. However, it was pointed out that jihadists regarded the political process as incompatible with their endeav-ours. Any adherent of their extremist ideology who attempted to form a political party could not consider themselves a true jihadist.

The need to improve social conditions for the region’s young people was a common theme of the Dialogue, and the subject was raised once again in this session. Panellists agreed that economic and social change would have a positive effect – the imperative was to encourage critical thinking and to counter the appeal of absolutist ideology.

Special Session 4: THE ROLE OF POLITICAL ISLAMISM

Azaz, northwest of Aleppo, Syria (ICRC)

Fading election posters in Egypt (Adrián Carreras)

10 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt and Dr John Chipman, IISS

Flowers and messages at Place de la République after the Paris attacks (Shutterstock)

Kurdish YPG fighter (Kurdishstruggle/Flickr)

INSURGENCYIISS–MIDDLE EAST EXPERTSEGYPT

Syrian Jihad: the Evolution of an Insurgency

While Western policy in Syria has focused on countering one group of extremists – ISIS – another may have more successfully entrenched itself in Syrian society and its grip might be harder to release. Local al-Qaeda affili-ate Jabhat al-Nusra had taken a paternalistic approach towards the Syrians in the areas it controlled, Charles Lister, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, said at an IISS discussion meeting on 19 November. After more than four years of civil war, it was viewed by many Syrians as having taking the fight to the Assad regime.

While ISIS meted out harsh punishments to the civilians under its control, Jabhat al-Nusra was more pragmatic in enforcing behavioural strictures, said Lister. It was ‘very difficult, if not impossible’ to get locals to ‘say anything bad about Jabhat al-Nusra’.

While Lister believed ISIS faced challenges both internally and on the battlefield, he warned against depending too heavily on Kurdish fighters. The Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, had been at the forefront of the campaign against ISIS in Iraq and northeastern Syria. However, a large Kurdish role would not be welcome in Sunni Arab-dominated areas to the south.

Both he and Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Security, reminded the audience that in five or six weeks at the start of 2014, the largely Sunni opposition forced ISIS out of four-and-a-half Syrian provinces. Even with close air support from the US-led coalition, Kurdish fighters had pushed ISIS out of about one-third of a province in a year, Lister estimated.

The discussion, which also took in Russian and French escalation, the Vienna peace process, ISIS financing and the role of Ahrar al-Sham, was chaired by Matthew Harries, the managing editor of IISS journal Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. Watch the event.

A View from Paris

On 30 November, the IISS-Middle East hosted a panel lecture on French policy in the Middle East entitled ‘A View from Paris’ as part of its Global Perspectives Series. The speakers included Dr Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, and Dr Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, and the lecture was chaired by Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East. The audience included ambassadors, government officials and representa-tives from leading businesses.

Dr Tertrais provided a skeptical take on the Iran nuclear deal, noting in particular its short time frame, but asserted that with its adoption, the best approach would be to demand its full implementation. He also explained that France’s tough negotiating position was welcomed by the Gulf states. Tertrais detailed France’s conundrum in Syria, where it sought to support Assad’s ouster but faced serious constraints, notably the presence of jihad-ist fighters, a concern greatly aggravated by the recent attacks in Paris. The attacks, Tertrais asserted, did not yet alter the substance of French policy but forced counter-terrorism to the top of the French regional agenda and would have a lasting impact in the country.

Dr Lahoud discussed the ISIS view of the world and explained that the choice of Paris as a target and the sophistication of the attacks revealed its evolving capabilities and desire to manipulate social and other perceived fault lines in Western societies. She noted that the ISIS narrative suffered from the refugee crisis: while ISIS was busy building its ‘caliphate’, many Arab Muslims chose to seek refuge in Europe. She noted that any strategy to weaken ISIS needed a strong political component and a recognition of the suffering of the populations in Syria and Iraq.

Read more about the Global Perspectives Series.

Roundtable with Egypt’s President SisiPresident Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt gave informal opening remarks at a roundtable discussion chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and CEO of the IISS, on 5 November. The meeting, which involved top British leaders and opinion formers, was held at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, in London.

Accompanying President Sisi were Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Minister of International Cooperation Dr Sahar Nasr, Minister of Investment Ashraf Salman, Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Tarek el-Molla, and Egyptian Ambassador to the UK Nasser Kamel.

Read the transcript by President Sisi.

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 11

Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia

OPPENHEIMER LECTURESALASTAIR BUCHAN LECTURES KEY ADDRESSES

IISS–Oppenheimer Lecture: Justice, Good Governance and International Security

Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa, delivered the IISS Oppenheimer Lecture on 14 October. One of the drafters that coun-try’s post-apartheid constitution, Madonsela began by reflecting on the origins of institutions for administrative accountability, as well as the long-term development and security goals of the African Union and the United Nations.

Speaking of a global challenge in which International Humanitarian Law ‘seems unable to step in and help as ordinary civilians, particu-larly women and children, become collateral damage’, she described a strong link between justice and peace. Her central arguments were that ‘perceived injustice within and between national states is a threat to international peace and security’; that mechanisms for restorative justice should play a significant role in the reform of international law; and that the rule of law should be evenly applied to regional and global governance. Madonsela contended that the International Criminal Court (ICC) was ‘facing a legitimacy crisis’ due to the fact that some of its members were ‘allowed to have a say in ICC operations while they themselves are not accountable to it’, and she advised that states ‘let the

ICC do its work, while an AU equivalent that transcends adversarial justice is formulated’.

She also touched on the security challenges posed by climate change and damage to the environment, describing the former as one of the great-est existential threats to humanity. Drawing together the threads of her argument, Madonsela concluded with a quote from Nelson Mandela: ‘let there be justice for all. Let there be peace for all. Let there be work, bread, water and salt for all.’

The event was chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS. Watch the full event here.

Europe at a CrossroadsEurope was in a ‘transformational crisis’, Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves warned during the 2015 Alastair Buchan Lecture he delivered at IISS headquarters on 1 December. All of the continent’s achievements were being tested, he believed, by continuing economic woes, the conflict on the continent’s eastern border in Ukraine, the huge numbers of refugees fleeing to Europe from the Middle East, the rise of far-right parties, the ter-rorist attacks in Paris on 13 November and the upcoming UK referendum on leaving the EU.

Europe needed to respond collectively through its democratic institu-tions. ‘Let’s try to gather our wits, combine our strengths, to leave behind … constant indecision, finger-pointing and ducking of responsibility’, he said, reminding the audience of the far greater challenges facing the conti-nent after 1945, which an earlier generation of Europeans overcame.

Ilves said that the refugee crisis should not be allowed to undermine the momentous eastward expansion of the EU in 2004, nor give oxygen to the intolerant rhetoric of populist politicians; the Paris attacks should not be allowed to close down Europe’s open societies.

However, those attacks had brought the principle of collective defence back into focus. Europe should react by ‘doing more to take seriously our security and defence’, said Ilves. He wanted to see increased defence and intelligence cooperation within Europe, at the same time as more effective control of the EU’s external borders.

The president expressed confidence that NATO would come to Estonia’s assistance under Article 5 of the NATO treaty should his country be attacked, even via ‘hybrid’ means. Hybrid war was nothing new, he insisted, noting that many of the tactics used by Russia to annex Crimea

from Ukraine in 2014 were the same as those used in a failed coup d’etat in Estonia in 1924. Nevertheless, he believed there needed to be more structured dialogue between the EU and NATO. At its upcoming summit in Warsaw, he said NATO needed to get back to first principles, putting deterrence before discourse.

Ilves warned that Europe was facing challenges from all quarters – from ISIS, which was trying to intimidate the West into abandoning its fundamental social principles, to Russia, which was calling for an anti-ISIS coalition while having ‘violated every major European security treaty’.

‘If we do not rise up to these challenges, future generations will look back at us and say that we have failed, that we squandered our European inheritance and they will ask why we did so little when so much was at stake’, he said.

The lecture was introduced and chaired by IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman.

Watch the event.

12 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA EXPERTSINDIA

A Conversation with General Raheel Sharif

For the second time this year, the IISS hosted Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif for a private, off-the-record conversation on the sidelines of his official meetings in London. On 1 October, General Sharif argued that Pakistan had come a long way since he launched a comprehensive military operation against militants inside the country last year. Through opera-tion Zarb-e-Azb, he explained, the army would continue pursuing militant ‘sleeper cells’ across Pakistan. He also urged the international community to play a role in promoting peace in South Asia and combating the funding of terrorist organisations. Discussing plans for a new US$46 billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, which would put Pakistan at the heart of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ policy, General Sharif declared that ‘we will do everything to make it a success.’

Read the Associated Press of Pakistan report on the event.

Key Trends in South and Central Asian Security

On 15 October, the IISS hosted a discussion of security trends in South and Central Asia, featuring two experts from the US National Defense University’s Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies and two from the IISS. NESA Academic Dean and Professor of Central Asian Studies Dr Roger Kangas argued that Central Asian republics sought closer regional cooperation in light of the evolving cross-border threats emanating from Afghanistan. His colleague, Associate Professor Jack Gill, suggested it was hard to overstate the importance of maintaining ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and nurturing the burgeoning rap-prochement between the two countries.

IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, who also chaired the event, noted that the cancellation of the first structured talks between Indian and Pakistani National Security Advisers had impeded prospects for the resumption of an official dialogue. This was particularly regrettable during a period of intensified cross-border military activity and sharpened government rhetoric on both sides. IISS Research Associate for South Asia Antoine Levesques argued that while China’s more visible role in stabilising Afghanistan had been welcomed by the international community, Beijing’s perceived assertiveness on the Indian border and in the Indian Ocean, as well as its support for the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, were more divisive. The discussion emphasised that addressing the threat posed by the rise of militant forces loyal to ISIS may provide a sound basis for fostering regional cooperation.

IISS–CISS Workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’ 2015

The fourth ‘track 1.5’ IISS nuclear workshop with Pakistan, held in part-nership with the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS), took place in Islamabad on 29 October. The keynote address was delivered by Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, while discussion sessions covered topics including Pakistan–India relations, deterrence and doctrines, and nuclear ‘normalisation’. The IISS was the first foreign think tank to call on Lieutenant-General Mazhar Jamil, the relatively new Director-General of the National Command Authority’s Strategic Plans Division (SPD), for discussions on these issues.

IISS representatives also visited Pakistan’s new Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security (PCENS) outside Islamabad, and held discussions at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs led by Additional Foreign Secretary (Asia-Pacific) Mr Afrasiab. The group also met with Senator Lieutenant-General (Ret.) Salahuddin Tirmizi of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Senator Farhatullah Babar of the opposition Pakistan Peoples’ Party, both members of the Senate Defence Committee.

Diplomatic Dimension of India’s Maritime Challenges

Ambassador Yogendra Kumar, former ambassador of India to the Philippines and Tajikistan, and High Commissioner to Namibia, dis-cussed India’s role as a growing maritime power during a talk at the IISS on 5 November. Specifically, he analysed the challenges the country currently faces in this domain, and suggested policy initiatives and capac-ity-building steps for India’s maritime agencies. He believed that these would help India play a lead role in the region, and will facilitate the ‘co-option’ of extra-regional powers – including China – into its maritime order. He suggested that the successful management of this challenge could potentially have a salutary effect on the global maritime order as a whole. The event was chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury.

Listen to the event.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS; General Raheel Sharif (Pakistan Army Chief); and Nigel Inkster, IISS

Gateway close to the China–Pakistan border

PAKISTAN GEOPOLITICS

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 13

SOUTH ASIAEXPERTS

IISS-NESA South Asia Security Conference 2015

The ninth annual ‘track 1.5’ IISS–NESA South Asia Security Conference, held in partnership with the Near East & South Asia Centre of the US National Defence University, took place in Muscat, Oman from 9–11 October 2015. It brought together nearly 60 participants from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan as well as attendees from the US, the UK, France, Bangladesh and – for the first time – China. The group included ministers, ambassadors and generals, along with influential experts. Moreover, the event provided a rare opportunity for a meeting between top intelligence officials from India’s Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI).

One-quarter of the conference participants were senior government officials and half were attending for the first time. The off-the-record

nature of the event allowed for candid discussion of Pakistan–Afghanistan relations, India–Pakistan relations, Pakistan’s domestic counter-terrorism efforts, Indian Ocean maritime security, regional economic cooperation and efforts to counter ISIS.

IISS–USI Workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’ 2015

The fourth IISS–USI workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’, co-hosted by India’s United Service Institution, took place at Arundel House on 4 November 2015. The Indian delegation was led by Lieutenant-General (Ret.) P.K. Singh, director of USI, the country’s leading military think tank. It was comprised of top-level retired officers from all three of India’s armed services, including former Chief of the Air Force Air

Myanmar After the Polls: A Foreseeable Result with Less Foreseeable Consequences

On 8 November, mainland Southeast Asia’s largest country held its first relatively free and inclusive general elections in a generation. It pitted an incumbent government formed of retired generals against the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), which is opposed to the military’s political dominance.

The webinar delivered on 6 November provided a concise overview of the possible scenarios and state of play in the critical period following the elections in Myanmar. The IISS correctly forecast that the NLD would secure the largest bloc of seats in the national and regional legislatures, and mapped out the likely consequences of this unprecedented power shift for the country. In particular, the discussion focused on the months of horse-trading over the presidency – a process in which the military remains a key political arbitrator – that will be required before a viable administration assumes office, on 29 March 2016.

The discussion also focused on the policy priorities for the likely next NLD government on issues relating to the emerging economy, neighbour-ing powers, constitutional reform and a troubled national peace process with major ethnic armed groups. With the ambitious next phase of the peace process due to start in January 2016, the incumbent government will need to adopt a framework for dialogue before handing over to the NLD, in the midst of the wider power transition.

Watch the webinar.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS; John Jenkins, IISS; Hekmat Karzai, Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Afghanistan; Major General Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, Director General (Analysis and Strategic Intelligence), Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan

A woman votes in a by-election in Myanmar (Htoo Tay Zar)

Chief Marshal (Ret.) Fali Major and former Eastern Naval Commander-in-Chief Vice Admiral (Ret.) A.K. Singh. The new Director-General of India’s foremost defence think tank, the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), Ambassador Jayant Prasad, was also a member of the Indian delegation. The presence of former high-level military officers from the UK and retired British High Commissioners to India Sir Michael Arthur – now President of Boeing UK – and Sir Richard Stagg – now Chairman of Rothschild (India) Private Ltd – as well as Rear Admiral (Retd) John Gower, former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff (Nuclear) at the UK Ministry of Defence – provided a unique opportunity for policy-relevant discussions on key defence and deterrence issues. These included ‘force perspectives on threats and challenges’, ‘defence and deterrence in south-ern Asia’ and ‘nuclear diplomacy’.

IISS-NESA SECURITY CONFERENCEMYANMAR

14 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

The Challenge of Corruption in Fragile States: Implications for Security and Defence Assistance

On 21 October Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development, hosted an off-the-record discussion at Arundel House with Will Jessett CBE, Director for Strategic Planning at the UK Ministry of Defence, Sir Ian Andrews, former Second Permanent Secretary of the UK Ministry of Defence and former Chairman of the Serious Organised Crime Agency, and Leah Wawro, Manager of the Conflict and Instability Programme at Transparency International.

The discussion exposed some of the challenges faced by Western governments attempting to deliver assistance to fragile regions where the effectiveness and reliability of defence and security agencies are undermined by entrenched corruption. The panellists examined cases in which corrupted security forces no longer protect civilians from violence. Elsewhere, a large injection of security and development assistance failed to improve the situation on the ground, instead damaging the integrity of local institutions that were used by officials to embezzle funds.

Read more about the event.

The Shadow Economy: How Illicit Trade Impacts Development and Governance

On 10 November, Eric D. U. Gutierrez, Senior Adviser at Christian Aid, Dr David Mansfield, Independent Consultant, Dr Jacobo Grajales, Associate Professor at the University of Lille, and Andy Morgan, freelance author and journalist, discussed the ways and extent to which development and security are undermined by illicit economies in developing regions. Speaking at Arundel House, the experts focused on Afghanistan, Mali and Colombia. The three countries have seen a proliferation of illicit-trade activities, with narcotics generating the bulk of revenues for non-state armed groups (and at times state actors) and undermining governance, democracy and efforts to eradicate poverty. Offering a nuanced analysis based on extensive field research, the panellists acknowledged that in some instances illicit trafficking had created jobs, funded social mobility and boosted licit economies. The event was chaired by Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development.

Watch the full discussion.

Is ISIS Making Inroads in Sub-Saharan Africa?

On 26 November, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development, Virginia Comolli delivered a webinar assessing the level of penetration enjoyed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Sub Saharan Africa – a region in which the group appears determined to expand its influence. During the course of the discussion, Comolli touched upon the region’s key jihadist hotspots: northern Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin region, the Horn of Africa, and Mali and its Sahelian neighbours. All three areas are under al-Qaeda influence (either formally or informally), creating tensions within local groups between those elements who wish to pledge allegiance to ISIS, and those who are determined to remain under al-Qaeda’s umbrella or focus on local priorities rather than the international ambitions of ISIS.

Watch the webinar.

Combating Violence and Organised Crime in Mega-cities

The IISS Security and Development Programme recently initiated a new strand of research focusing on the security of cities in the developing world and policies designed to counter urban armed violence. The research examines how armed groups challenge state authority in sprawling slums and the peripheries of mega-cities, and the related policy dilemmas faced by local authorities.

Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development, examined some of these dilemmas during a webinar on 22 October. Sampaio analysed trends in the use of security and development tools with the aim of stabilising cities. With Latin America currently being the most urbanised developing region in the world, he discussed successful examples of stabilisation using the cases of Medellin and Rio de Janeiro. Based on these case studies, Sampaio argued that stabilisation operations form part of a new understanding of the role of force in cities.

Listen to the webinar.

EXPERTSSECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

Anti-corruption poster in Zambia (Lars Plougmann/Flickr)

Brazilian troops in a Rio de Janeiro favela (Agência Brasil)

GOVERNANCE DRUGS TRADE ISLAMIC STATE ORGANISED CRIME

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 15

Brazilian Defence in International Perspective

The IISS hosted Ambassador Celso Amorim, former Minister of External Relations and former Minister of Defence of Brazil, at Bloomsbury House on 11 November. Having spent almost 13 years in cabinet positions, Ambassador Amorim spoke on Brazil’s views on foreign policy and the international-security system. He revealed how during the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil developed a ‘grand strategy’ of combining soft and hard power in order to achieve greater participation on the world stage.

Ambassador Amorim also highlighted his country’s record on promot-ing security and stability abroad, primarily through UN peace operations – most prominently in Haiti, where Brazil leads a large mission. Although Brazil’s stance is against armed intervention abroad, it has adopted the

principle of non-indifference to human-rights violations. However, he added that the country prefers to use non-violent means to resolve issues. The event was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Read more about the event.

Former Brazilian president da Silva with troops who were part of a UN mission in Haiti (Agência Brasil/Ricardo Stuckert)

Chinese Jiangkai II-class frigate Yiyang at Mayport, Florida (US Navy/Stephanie Turo)

Responding to China’s Challenges in East and Southeast Asia

At a breakfast briefing on 19 November, IISS–Asia Executive Director Dr Tim Huxley spoke at Arundel House on the United States’ long-term strategy towards China’s activities in the South China Sea. He noted that China’s large-scale naval modernisation and attempts to claim con-tested territory in the area reflected its goal of creating a new, Sino-centric regional order in the Asia-Pacific. As such, some experts regard the creation of an acknowledged Chinese sphere of influence in the region as inevita-ble. Dr Huxley, however, suggested that regional stability will ultimately depend on the capacity of the US and its allies to execute an effective ‘cost-imposing’ strategy to curtail China’s coercive behaviour. He explored the

potential structure of such a strategy, including the significant role that US Navy Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) would play in its implementation.

IISS-Asia Roundtable SeminarsDuring November, IISS-Asia organised three Roundtable Seminars involv-ing speakers who were visiting Singapore.

Tensions in China–Japan Relations and East Asian Security On 5 November, Dr Rex Li from Liverpool John Moores University, UK, delivered a paper on the impact of Sino-Japanese relations on East Asian security. Dr Li highlighted the fact that the underlying problems in this relationship remained unresolved, despite high-level dialogue in recent months, arguing that the roots of these bilateral tensions lie in the two countries’ changing conceptions of their own and each other’s identities. He argued that the prospects for East Asian peace depend to a considerable extent on whether and to what extent China and Japan can reduce their ‘identity tensions’.

Russia’s Offensive in Syria: Motives, Strategy, Operational AspectsOn 11 November, Dr Alexey D. Muraviev from Curtin University, Perth,

Western Australia spoke on Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict. Dr Muraviev examined how intensive operations by Russia’s compos-ite air group in Syria, supported by naval missile strikes and long-range bombers, have contributed to the success of the Syrian army’s counter-offensive against insurgent groups, including those backed by the West. Dr Muraviev also assessed the rationale and strategic objectives behind Russia’s Syrian commitment.

Geostrategic Shift in East Asia: Towards a Pax Sinica and an Emergence of a New Regional OrderProfessor Tosh Minohara of Kobe University discussed the evolution of strategic relations between the United States, Japan and the rest of Asia at IISS–Asia on 12 November. He also examined the significance of this ‘transformation’ of regional relations for Asia’s future.

Each seminar was well-attended by members of Singapore’s diplomatic, business and academic communities, and lively discussions followed all three speakers’ presentations. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia, chaired the meetings.

IISS–ASIAASIA-PACIFIC

EXPERTS SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

16 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov (US DoD)

Pakistan air force JF-17 (paf.gov.pk)

Preparations for a cyber readiness inspection at Altus Air Force Base, Oklahoma, US (Franklin R. Ramos/US Air Force)

The Pakistan Air Force’s Role in Ongoing Military Operations: Success and Challenges

Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman, Pakistan’s Chief of the Air Staff, provided a valuable insight into the challenges of using an air force intended, equipped and trained for state-on-state conflict in a counter-insurgency role. Speaking at Arundel House on 27 October, the Air Chief Marshal highlighted the fleet-recapitalisation needs of the air force in upcoming years as a number of ageing combat aircraft come to the end of their respective service lives. The event was chaired by Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS EXPERTS

Russia’s New Naval ChallengeOn 27 October, Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, delivered a corporate breakfast briefing at Arundel House on new naval challenges facing Russia. He argued that recent increases in Russian naval activity represent a significant challenge for NATO, particularly in the case of submarine activity. After a period of dra-matically low investment, there has been some recovery, but the Russian Navy remains a shadow of the former Soviet Navy. There are also sig-nificant challenges, not least in terms of industrial capacity, in turning Russia’s ambitious shipbuilding and modernisation plans into reality. The navy’s core mission remains deterrence as well as acquiring signifi-cant capability to challenge NATO’s ability to operate in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea. But its ocean-going fleet ultimately remains rooted in the Soviet

era. While these moves are sufficient to project an image of power, replace-ment of these capabilities will be vital in order to sustain influence in the longer term.

Read more about the event.

Lessons Encountered – Learning from the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

On 1 December, Dr Richard Hooker, Director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the US National Defense University (NDU), briefed IISS members on the work conducted by the NDU to assess the costs and benefits of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the stra-tegic lessons of these wars. He explained how the NDU was tasked by General Martin Dempsey, outgoing Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, to identify the strategic lessons of these wars for the US military. Dr Hooker showed how in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the US and its allies struggled to achieve their strategic aims. Both wars also incurred considerable human and financial costs. He explained the principal conclusions of this work, including the key issues of strategic decision-making, adaptation and the legal aspects of the wars. The event was held at Arundel House and was chaired by Brigadier Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare.

Strategy for the Twenty-First Century

Harlan Ullman, Chairman of the Killowen Group and Senior Adviser at the Atlantic Council, addressed Arundel House on 12 October on the subject of a strategy for the twenty-first century. He argued that there is a lack of intel-lectual rigour in responding to global challenges today and made a plea for what he described as ‘a brains-based approach to strategic thinking’. He suggested strategy be based more on knowledge and understanding as well as an acceptance that the twenty-first century is about interconnected-ness (compared to the ‘binary’ nature of the previous century). He added that thought and action should be based on strategic outcomes rather than tactics. He called for the creation of a twenty-first century equivalent of the code-breaking capabilities of Bletchley Park in order to deal with the information explosion of today. In terms of today’s challenges, the four new ‘horsemen of the apocalypse’ (as he called them) are: failed and failing

government; economic despair, disparity and dislocation; religious violent extremism in the shape of radical Islam; and environmental catastrophe. The event was chaired by Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security.

Listen to the event.

RUSSIAMILITARY STRATEGY PAKISTAN

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 17

IISS Bahrain Bay Forum 2015The IISS Bahrain Bay Forum, which took place 28–29 November in Manama, commenced with the keynote address of Zayed Al Zayani, Bahrain’s Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism. Al Zayani dis-cussed the inextricable link between regional security and business opportunities. Under stable regional conditions, economies are able to better facilitate business platforms and generate greater prosperity. For this reason, GCC states are realising the importance of industry diversifica-tion and are steering away from overreliance on natural resources, opening pathways for entrepreneurship and job creation. Al Zayani concluded by emphasising that, although economic reform can play a key role, it would not alone solve wider instability facing the region.

The first plenary session, ‘Perspectives on the Global Economy’, addressed global trends in the economy and analysed future business opportunities in various regions. Huw Pill, Managing Director of the Global Investment Research Division at Goldman Sachs, mentioned that each region had its unique opportunities and challenges, but that broad commonalities remained in aftermath of the global financial crisis. Bill Emmott, former Editor-in-Chief of the Economist, discussed the global trend of slowing growth, particularly in Europe and Asia. He emphasised the impact technological innovation has had on the labour market. Dr Alia Moubayed, Head of Research for MENA at Barclays Bank, discussed the challenges facing emerging economies seeking to increase their growth levels and present themselves as attractive investment opportunities.

The second plenary session, entitled ‘Emerging Economies and the Middle East’, focused on the impact of economic trends in emerging mar-kets on the region, bringing together speakers from China, Chile and South Korea. The discussion commenced with comments on the commodity super-cycle and deceleration in China’s economy, before addressing China’s shift towards a more consumer-centric economy. The speakers discussed the parallels between emerging markets and the Middle East, in particular dependency on commodity exports and the fiscal effect of this dependency.

The third plenary session, ‘Business Opportunity and Political Risk in the Middle East’, assessed the significance of these themes in the context of the Middle East and the Gulf. Khalid Al Rumaihi, Chief Executive of the Bahrain Economic Development Board, introduced the session by dis-cussing the potential for business opportunities in this region. Dr Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, gave a broader assess-ment of regional risks, including those from extremist groups.

The fourth and final plenary session, ‘The Gulf and the Global Tech Economy’, discussed how the technology sector can drive growth, create highly-skilled-job opportunities and facilitate collaboration on socio-eco-

nomic issues, concluding the forum on an optimistic note. Teresa Carlson, Vice President of Amazon, spoke of the vast opportunities cloud computing is bringing to the public and private sectors, accelerating efforts in health-care and financial services. Abdulrahman Al Hajri, Business Development Manager at TAQNIA, discussed the growth potential for technology in the GCC, especially for entrepreneurs and SMEs. Andre Pienaar, Founder and Director of C5 Capital, listed the key factors behind establishing a suc-cessful technology sector, including collaboration, taking new steps and fostering learning environments.

The forum also included parallel sessions on the subjects of Oil and Energy Markets, Strategic Risk and Cyber-Security, The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Business, The Opportunity and Challenge of GCC Skills Gap, and Asian Economies and the Gulf.

Watch all sessions and find out more about the IISS Bahrain Bay Forum.

Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS and Zayed Al Zayani, Bahrain’s Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism

Dr Haihong Gao, Director, Research Center for International Finance, China Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing during Plenary Two

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGYEXPERTS IISS–MIDDLE EAST

Corporate Breakfast – ‘China’s Geo-Economic Strategy’

On 27 November, Giri Rajendran, IISS Research Associate for Defence & Economics, held a corporate breakfast at Arundel House on ‘China’s Geo-Economic Strategy’. The briefing assessed the increasingly extrovert approach China has adopted towards its international economic policy under President Xi Jinping, including its moves in recent years to acceler-

ate renminbi internationalisation, the launch of its ‘One-Belt, One-Road’ initiative, the founding of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the establishment of the China International Payments System. The discussion analysed both the domestic economic and geo-strategic consid-erations that were driving this change in policy, as well as some of the risks and implications of this shift for market participants. It concluded that, through these economic and financial initiatives, China is attempting to bolster its bilateral influence, augment its regional leadership role and create a Sino-centric, state-capitalist economic order as it continues its rise as a global power.

18 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

EXPERTSFUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY

US President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China at the US Ambassador’s residence in The Hague, the Netherlands, in 2014 (White House/Pete Souza)

US National Security Agency headquarters (NSA)

UK-China Track 1.5 Cyber Security Dialogue

On 19 November, a delegation from the IISS travelled to Beijing to take part in the fifth round of the Sino-UK Track 1.5 Dialogue on Cyber Security. The Dialogue covered issues relating to the applicability of international law in

the cyber domain and the development of norms of conduct, and provided a forum for participants to discuss the practicalities of Sino-UK coopera-tion on cyber-security matters.

Furthermore, the Dialogue presented an opportunity for the pre-launch of the new IISS Strategic Dossier, Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security, to a selected audience.

World Order and Strategic Stability: Managing the US-China Cyber Relationship

On 7 October, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security Nigel Inkster chaired a discussion meeting at Arundel House with John Mallery, Research Affiliate at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and an Oxford Martin School Associate. Taking place shortly after the Obama-Xi cyber agreement made in September, the discussion focused on the cyber component of the US–China rela-tionship.

On key matters relating to the internet, Chinese and US interests are fundamentally divergent, frustrating the task of establishing shared norms for online behaviour. These tensions are symptoms of the broader struggle over establishing the ‘rules of the road’ for cyber security.

Mallery used a world-order perspective to model several potential pathways to cyber-induced instability in the Sino-American relationship. Suggesting a series of high-impact confidence-building measures, Mallery compared these steps to the recent agreement and proposed a compliance framework for managing the US–China cyber relationship.

Listen to the event.

Media Launch: IISS Strategic Dossier on Cyber Security

On 1 December the IISS launched the latest Strategic Dossier, Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security. The event gave Editor Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas and Contributor Dr Mika Kerttunen the oppor-tunity to discuss insights gained while writing the dossier, and to map potential future devel-opments in the cyber domain.

Discussions on cyber security have become a battleground for adherents of opposing ideo-logical perspectives – amplifying, intensifying and recycling wider questions of security that long predate the evolu-tion of the cyber domain. The unique role that cyberspace could play in a potentially dangerous redistribution of global power renders the need to establish clear rules of conduct in cyber matters more urgent than ever.

The panel emphasised how the cyber domain is a state-made domain that closely reflects the interests of influential states, often leaving devel-oping countries out of the conversation altogether. Russia and China are seeking to erode the United States’ global predominance in this sphere, favouring a top-down approach to cyber governance that privileges the role

of sovereign states and the United Nations, rather than the more organic and informal American, multi-stakeholder model. Questions were raised as to how developments in the cyber domain have shaped the nature of espionage, what the role of the private sector will be in addressing vulner-abilities and whether ‘cyber brigades’ will be a recurring feature of future armed forces. The event was held at Arundel House and was chaired by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security.

Watch the launch.

CYBER SECURITY CHINA

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 19

Helga Schmid, Deputy Secretary General for the European External Action Service

Yukiya Amano, Director-General, IAEA and Lyse Doucet, Chief International Correspondent, BBC News

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENTEXPERTS IRAN

The Fourth EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference

The IISS organised the fourth EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference, which took place in Brussels on 11–12 November. The conference, held in association with the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, continues to go from strength to strength, bringing together more than 260 participants from nearly 60 states and international organisations.

This year, the event marked the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between the E3/EU+3 and Iran. Several sessions focused on this landmark nuclear deal, includ-ing a video introduction to the conference by Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, followed by a keynote presentation by Helga Schmid, Deputy Secretary General for the European External Action Service. The Iran theme was continued by a dinner keynote from IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano and a final plenary session assessing the prospects for the deal’s success.

In addition, the event discussed a wide array of other issues under the non-proliferation and disarmament umbrella, including autonomous, biological and chemical weapons, the Arms Trade Treaty, the weaponisation of space, and the security risks posed by other emerging tech-nologies.

Full coverage of the conference, including videos of keynotes and plenaries, as well as tran-scripts and blog posts from IISS experts can be found on the IISS website.

Next Generation WorkshopOn 10 November, preceding the main conference, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme hosted a Next Generation Workshop in Brussels geared towards young professionals in the field of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, involving 32 participants from 18 countries. The agenda spanned a wide range of topics, from emerging technologies

such as missile defence, conventional precision-guided munitions and space warfare to nuclear security. The discussions sought to address the growing divide between nuclear deterrence and nuclear disarmament, as well as offering an opportunity to take stock of the past decade of non-pro-liferation efforts, based primarily on the case studies of Iran, North Korea and India. Participants engaged in a lively discussion, offering a wide range of national perspectives on the various issues, which were divergent.

JCPOA Implementation WorkshopOn 3 November, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme held a workshop in Istanbul focused on the implementation of the nuclear agreement reached by the E3/EU+3 and Iran. In support of the United Nations Panel of Experts on Iran’s mandate to conduct outreach, the semi-nar brought together government officials from Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, as well as representatives of the private sector. The discus-sion focused on the timing and scope of sanctions relief provided by the

UN, the EU and the United States; continued restrictions on certain activi-ties; and the procurement channel designed to supply Iran’s legitimate nuclear needs. The latter, participants concluded, may prove to be the most challenging aspect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action because of its complexity and the fact that many states lack appropriate licensing capacity. Sanctions relief, too, may be less extensive in practice than the conceptual framework would suggest. While the legal and administrative arrangements will be in place, companies may still be hesitant to engage with Iran, for fear of remaining US sanctions.

Mark Fitzpatrick’s Valedictory Talk at Arundel House

On 24 November, his last day in the London office before moving to Washington DC to become Executive Director of the IISS–US, Mark Fitzpatrick gave a valedictory talk entitled ‘Reflections on a Decade of Proliferation Punditry’. Speaking to a distinguished audience, he sug-gested that the non-proliferation record has been mixed during the last ten years, but concluded that containment has largely worked to prevent proliferation, with the exception of North Korea. In treaty terms, progress

has also been mixed; both the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Chemical Weapons Convention are close to universal adherence, while others, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have made less progress. Momentum in further reductions in nuclear arsenals has also stalled. As Fitzpatrick reflected, the breakdown in Russia–West relations and its impact on arms control is indeed one of the three worst developments in the field in the past decade. The other two being Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria and North Korea’s testing of nuclear weapons. On a positive note, however, Iran signed what Fitzpatrick considered ‘the most significant arms-control agreement of the decade’; whether it lasts remains to be seen.

NON-PROLIFERATION

20 | DECEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

IISS–US EXPERTS

Syrians near Kobane cross the border into Turkey, September 2014 (Shutterstock)

US and Colombian marines training in Colombia (Samuel R. Beyers/US Marine Corps)

Mark Fitzpatrick

Understanding ISIS: The Past, Present, and Future of the Islamic State‘Without Zarqawi, there is no ISIS’, said Washington Post reporter Joby Warrick at the 10 November IISS–US event ‘Understanding ISIS: The Past, Present, and Future of the Islamic State’. Warrick, the author of the recent book Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS, discussed the origins of the group and the role of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who he called ‘the innovator’ of ISIS ideol-ogy and approach.

‘Zarqawi would not have existed as we know him without a series of missteps by a number of outside individuals, including our own govern-ment,’ Warrick said.

Dr Nelly Lahoud, Senior Fellow for Political Islamism at the IISS, described ISIS’s distinctive approach to jihad and underscored the importance of drawing a clear distinction between ‘Islamists’ and ‘jihad-ists’.

‘Islamists are part of the political process, whereas jihadis reject the legitimacy of the political process altogether.’

Dr Lahoud also discussed the role of religion in ISIS recruitment strate-gies. ‘Theology does not seem to be something that is critical because we are seeing many young people who are converting to join IS,’ she said. ‘Islam is a ticket to becoming a jihadi, rather than jihad being a ticket to becoming a Muslim.’

Warrick concluded with a discussion of ISIS’s resources, many of which he said came from former US military bases in Iraq.

‘Without a doubt, ISIS is the best-armed, best-equipped terrorist organ-isation the world has ever seen,’ he said.

Watch the event.

Discussion with General John KellyOn 17 November the IISS-US hosted General John F. Kelly, Commander of the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), for a discussion on security challenges in Latin America.

General Kelly highlighted the distinct characteristics of the region and underscored the importance of strong US partnerships with the southern hemisphere in terms of trade, humanitarian efforts and drug interdiction. He also praised Colombia as a success story in its fight against the FARC rebel group.

‘It started with the Colombian people changing. They changed their tax code, their military changed, they are much more human-rights-friendly. Twenty years ago, 80% of the countryside was either controlled by or influ-enced by the FARC; today it’s 4–5%, going down.’

The general also touched upon the reach of ISIS in the region. ‘In my part of the world my greatest concern is local radicalised recruits

who stay in the region to do dirty work against soft targets. Think of the cruise industry. There are millions of Americans who enjoy cruises out of

Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Texas – they have one-day stops in won-derful countries, but they’re a very soft target.’

The conversation was chaired by IISS Council Member Dr Eliot Cohen, Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at SAIS.

Watch the event.

IRAQ SYRIA ISLAMIC STATE MILITARY COOPERATION

Mark Fitzpatrick Named Executive Director of IISS–USMark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS, began his appointment as the Executive Director of the IISS–US on 1 December 2015. Mark brings a decade of experience at the IISS and 26 years of experience at the US Department of State to this new role. He is an expert on non-proliferation and nuclear-security topics and has authored numerous IISS publications, including Adelphi books, Strategic Dossiers, Survival articles and more. He has

also convened dozens of IISS workshops and conferences across five continents for the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme. As the Executive Director, Mark’s mandate will be to raise the IISS profile in both North and South America, and to ensure the international engagement of Americans in the IISS and the IISS in the Americas.

IISS NEWS DECEMBER 2015 | 21

New Adelphi BooksAdelphi 452North Africa in Transition: The Struggle for Democracies and InstitutionsEdited by Ben FishmanThe 2011 Arab uprisings began in North Africa and top-pled the leaders of Tunisia and Libya, but the forces that wreaked this profound change also touched their fellow Maghreb states of Algeria and Morocco. This Adelphi book examines how the politics, security and economies – which were largely stable for decades prior to 2011 – have changed in the four states. It asks why the popu-lar revolutions in Tunisia and Libya did not spread to

Algeria and Morocco; how the revolutionary states have fared since 2011; why Libya descended into a deadly civil war while the others did not; and whether the sitting governments in Algeria and Morocco have applied sus-tainable strategies to address the new political climate.

The book includes chapters on each of the four core Maghreb states, together with regional assessments of the jihadist threat and economic challenges. It analyses the tension between security and political reform, and argues that without persistent and comprehensive devel-opment of government institutions focused on creating jobs and providing security, the region risks future pro-tests, terrorism or even revolution – a lesson that states throughout the Middle East should take to heart.

Survival: Global Politics and StrategyIn the December 2015–January 2016 issue of Survival, François Heisbourg examines the strategic implications of the Syrian refugee crisis; Elbridge Colby and Jonathan Solomon draw up a plan to deter Russia with conventional military forces; Sam Charap warns against exaggerating the hybrid-warfare threat; Elizabeth Pond explains the risks of Ukrainian corruption; Massimo Franco discusses the Pope’s visit to the United States; Theo Farrell and Michael Semple urge peace talks with the Taliban; Nina Kollars describes challenges of technological adaptation in war; Tim Huxley and Benjamin Schreer urge the US and states in the Asia-Pacific to stand up to China; Nien-chung Chang Liao and Dalton Kuen-da Lin propose a rebalancing of US–Taiwanese relations; John Gans contributes a review essay on David Rothkopf’s National Insecurity; David C. Unger, Chris Alden, Hanns W. Maull and Jonathan Stevenson review books on the United States, Africa, Europe, and counter-terrorism and intelligence; and Bill Emmott argues that the right questions about China concern politics, and not economics.

Strategic Survey 2015: Middle East and North Africa (Arabic)The year to mid-2015 saw significant flux in the Middle East. Nuclear diplomacy between Iran and major powers appeared to have defused a very important source of inter-national tension, but its effect on regional security remained uncertain, with no sign of detente emerging between Iran and other major Middle Eastern countries.

As the Iranian nuclear deal approached, and was even-

tually sealed in July 2015, regional governments viewed it with scepticism.

This important chapter from Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs has been translated into Arabic and is available to buy as a print version or as a pdf. The print copy also contains the English translation and is available from Amazon.

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