(Illegal) Immigration:Global and National Context and Prospects for Reform

Presented by

Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project Director

Topics

Global and national context

Illegal ImmigrationEconomic impactsFiscal Costs and contributionsNational security

Policy debates and prospects for reform

Immigration: A World-Wide Phenomenon

Cause and consequence of global economic integration

UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants …≈ 3.3% of the world's population

Global remittances estimated at $150 billionper year

Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., “The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight”, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.

Foreign-Born Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2004

Num

ber

(000

s)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Perc

ent

Number % of Total Population

Categories of Foreign Born (2004)

* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Unauthorized Immigrants

10.3 million (29%)

Legal Permanent Residents

10.4 million (29%)

Naturalized Citizens

11.3 million (32%)

Temporary Legal Residents

1.2 million (3%)

Refugee Arrivals2.5 million (7%)

U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration

Architecture of family reunification

Economic migration laws seek to:Minimize competition with U.S. workersProvide for scarce labor

Demographic Realities

Native-born population growing slowly and ageing

20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers

Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for ≈ 60% of U.S. population growth

Between 1990-2004, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force

Demographic Realities

Example:

Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom)U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration

Strong ‘pull’ factor

Political Challenge‘Immigration’

increasingly equated with ‘Illegal Immigration’

Causes of Illegal Immigration…

1. Global economic integration

2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration

3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to:

i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibilityii. Limited funding of interior enforcement;iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs

Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America(Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants)

* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Mexico5.9 million (56%)Other Latin America

2.5 million (24%)

Asia1 million (10%)

Europe & Canada0.6 million (6%)

Africa & Other0.4 million (4%)

Illegal Immigration Matters…

- To immigrants themselves

- To the United States

Immigration Status Matters to Employment

15%

33%

6%

17%

10%

16%

27%

13%

35%

10%

6%8%

1%3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

ServiceOccupations

Construction &Extractive

Production,Repair &

Installation

Sales &Administration

Management,Business &Professional

Transportation& Moving

Industries

Farming

Native-born Workers Unauthorized Workers

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

Immigration Status Matters to Income(Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004)

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

$47,700 $47,800

$27,400

1.962.34 2.29

$24,300$20,400

$12,000

Average Family Income Average Family Size Income Per Person

Native-born Families Legal Immigrant Families Unauthorized Families

Immigration Status Matters to Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group’s 18-24 year old population, 2004)

Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org

11%

21%

49%

70%73%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

High School Dropouts High School Graduates with SomeCollege

Native-Born Legal Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants

Immigration Status Matters to Net Fiscal Impacts

Illegal immigrants tend to be low-skilled

Low-skilled immigrants: Earn relatively low wagesContribute relatively little in taxes

Net fiscal impacts depend both on:Size and mix of immigrant populationGenerosity of state public services

Illegal status compounds impacts

Immigration Status Matters to National Security

Failure to control borders: Undermines sovereignty & rule of lawCreates national security risksUndermines formulation of coherent policyMakes the border a dangerous place

“It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.”

Enforcement Has Focused on the Border

2,842,000

700,000

109,000

458,000192,000

1,633,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Dolla

rs (0

00s)

Border Control Interior Investigations Detention & Removal/Intelligence

Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.

Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985 - 2002

Enforcement Challenge

Ambivalence about enforcementFocus at border while interior enforcement is minimalNo reliable system for verifying immigration

Ambivalence about controlling immigration – control modulated through

Limits to visible categoriesAdjustments to numbers of temporary visasAdjustments to enforcement intensity

Politics of Reform

System understood to be broken

Political stalemate:“Enforcement before reform” vs. “Reform in order to enforce”

What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants?

“Earned regularization” vs. “Amnesty”

Temporary Worker Program

One mechanism for economic immigration

Debates over existing unauthorized population

Limited provision for permanent economic immigration

‘Importing’ Temporary Labor is Complicated

Workers vs. citizensFacilitates:

Limiting rightsSocial divisionsInherent power imbalance

Politics of Immigration Debates

*From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.

Classic Exclusionists

Tom Tancredo (R-CO)

Free-Market Expansionists

Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Restrictive

Nationalist Egalitarians

Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Cosmopolitans

Edward Kennedy (D-MA)Expansive

RestrictedExpanded or MaintainedImmigrant Rights Should Be

Immigrant Admission Should Be

Major Themes and Conclusions

Today’s immigration reflects a global economy

Economic and fiscal impacts are complex

Current laws reflects complex political cross-currents and interests

Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven