ilmastonmuutoksen arvioidut vaikutukset pohjois-euroopan näkökulmasta seppo kellomäki joensuun...
TRANSCRIPT
Ilmastonmuutoksen arvioidut vaikutukset Pohjois-Euroopan
näkökulmastaSeppo Kellomäki
Joensuun yliopisto, metsätieteellinen tiedekunta
Contents
• Assessment process
• Key vulnerabilities
• Summary Findings, with examples from Finland
• Key uncertainties
Northern Europe is a part of the circumpolar boreal zone, vulnerable to any changes in the climate
Assessment process 1• Current sensitivity/vulnerability
– Climate factors and trends– Non-climate factors and trends– Current adaptation and adaptive capacity
• Assumptions about future trends– Climate projections (means, extremes)– Non-climate trends
• Key future impacts and vulnerabilities– Water resources– Coastal and marine systems– Mountains and sub-artic regions– Forests shrub lands and grasslands– Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems– Biodiversity– Agriculture and fishery– Marine fisheries and aquaculture– Energy and transport– Tourism and recreation– Property insurance– Human health
Assessment process 2• Adaptation: practices, options and constrains
– Water resources– Coastal and marine systems– Mountains and sub-artic regions– Forests shrub lands and grasslands– Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems– Biodiversity– Agriculture and fishery– Marine fisheries and aquaculture– Energy and transport– Tourism and recreation– Property insurance– Human health
Key vulnerabilities of European systems and sectors to climate change for the main biogeographic regions
AT: Increased coastal erosion and flooding; stressing of marine bio-systems and habitat loss; increased tourism pressure on coasts; greater winter storm risk and vulnerability of transport to winds
CE: Increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods; increased variability of crop yields; increased health effects of heat waves
ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of coastal waters
MT: Glaciers disappearing; reduced snow-cover period; upward shift of tree line; severe biodiversity losses; reduced ski season
ST: Decreased crop yield; increased soil erosion; increased SLR with positive NAO; increased salinity of inland seas
BO: Water logging; eutrophication of lakes and wetlands; increased coastal flooding and erosion; increased winter storm risk; reduced ski season; severe fires in drained peatland
TU: Thawing of permafrost; decreased tundra area; increased coastal erosion and flooding
Sectors and systems Impact
Area
NorthAtlanti
cCentra
lMedite
rr. East
Water resources
Floods
Water availability
Water stress
Mountains, cryosphere
Glaciers retreat
Duration of snow cover
Permafrost retreat na
Tree line upward shift
Forest, shrub lands and grasslands
Forest NPP to
Northward/inland shift of tree species to
Stability of forest ecosystems
Shrub lands NPP
Natural disturbances (e.g., fire, pests, wind)
Grasslands NPP to
Sectors and
systems Impact
Area
North
Atlantic
Central
Mediterr.
East
Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems
Drying/ transformation of wetlands
Species diversityto ??
Eutrophication
Disturbance of drained peatlands na
Biodiversity
Plants (Mt)
Amphibians
(SW)
(SE)
Reptiles
(SW)
(SE)
Marine mammals ?? na ??
Low-lying coastal birds na ??
Freshwater biodiversityto ?? ?? ??
Sectors and
systems Impact
Area
North
Atlantic
Central
Mediterr.
East
Agriculture and fisheries
Suitable cropping area
Agricultural land area
Summer crops (maize, sunflower)
Winter crops (winter wheat) to
Irrigation needs na to
Energy crops
Livestock to
Energy and transport Energy supply and distribution
Winter energy demand
Summer energy demand
Transport
TourismWinter (incl. ski) tourism
Summer tourism
Property insurance
Flooding claims ?? ?? ??
Storms claims ?? ??
Summary Finding 1: For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented in Europe (very
high confidence)
Summary Finding 2: Climate-related hazards will mostly increase, although changes will vary geographically (very high confidence)
• Change in climate: more frequent and longer dry spells
• Impacts on ecosystems and society: e.g. changes in the fire hazards
Summary Finding 3: Climate change is likely to magnify regional differences of Europe’s natural resources and assets
(very high confidence)
Changes in forest growthChange in stocking and
sustainable cuttings
Summary Finding 4: It is anticipated that Europe’s natural ecosystems and
biodiversity will be substantially affected
by climate change (high confidence)
Summary Finding 5: Climate change is estimated to pose challenges to many European economic sectors and alter
distribution of economic activity (high confidence)
• Agriculture with more success in the north• Forestry with more success in the north• Less winter heating but more summer cooling• Energy with more hydropower in the north• Transportation with less winter maintenance • Winter tourism is anticipated to face reduced
snow duration and snow cover• Insurance, more risks to extreme weather
episodes
Summary Finding 6: Adaptation to climate change is likely benefit from experience gained in reactions to extreme climate events, by specially implementing proactive climate change risk management (high confidence)
Summary Finding 7: Although the effectiveness and feasibility of adaptation measures are expected tovary greatly, only few governments and institutionshave systematically andcritically examined the portfolio of measures
Impact of climate change Improved long-term monitoring of climate sensitive physical (e.g. cryosphere), biological (ecosystem), and social sectors (tourism, health) Improvement of climate impact models, including extreme events on longer term dynamics of ecosystems Simultaneous consideration of climatic and non-climatic factors through experimental research and the development of integrated impact models Enhancement of the integrated impact studies, e.g. of sensitive ecosystems including human dimensions. Better understanding on socioeconomic consequences of climate change for different European regions with different adaptive capacity
Adaptation measures Comprehensive evaluation (effectiveness, economy, constrains) of measures to reduce impacts of climate variability and extreme meteorological events. Better understanding, identification and prioritization of adaptation options for coping with adverse effects of climate A research challenge is to evaluate the feasibility, costs and benefits of potential adaptation options, measures, and technologies Quantification of bio-climatic limitations of prevalent plant species Continuation of studies on the regional differences in adaptive capacity
Implementation Identification of population at risks and lag time in climate change impacts Include climate change in management policy and institutions Consideration of non-stationary climate in the design of engineering structuresImplications of climate change for water and air health and environmental standardsTo address the pragmatic information needs of managers who are responsible for adaptation
Key uncertainties and research needs.