Detlef van Vuuren

1

IMAGE scenario work

August 5, 2011 2

IMAGE greenhouse gas stabilisation scenario project (2007)

4 SRES scenarios differentiated in: • Population • Income /equity • Technology assumptions (energy, land) • Fuel and food preferences • Trade assumptions (fuels, food) • Taxes • [governance, development focus]

Exploration of different stabilisation levels

Van Vuuren (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs Climatic Change 81 (2), pp. 119-159.

August 5, 2011 3

Emissions

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

10

20

30

40

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

10

20

30

40

a) B2 Baseline and mitigation profiles

450 CO2-eq

550 CO2-eq

650 CO2-eq

Em

issi

ons

(GtC

-eq) B2 Baseline

CO2

Non-CO2

b) B2 Baseline and other baselines

Colour area indicates EMF21 range

IMAGE 2.3 B2 IMAGE 2.3 A1b IMAGE 2.3 B1

Van Vuuren (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs Climatic Change 81 (2), pp. 119-159.

August 5, 2011 4

Land

B1

B2 A2

A1

Strengers, B. et al. (2004). The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model GeoJournal 61 (4), pp. 381-393

August 5, 2011 5

Bio-energy potential

Year 2000 A2 2050 B2 2050 A1 20500

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Low estimate

Ene

rgy

prod

uctio

n po

tent

ion

(EJ/

yr)

More than 20 $/GJ 15-20 $/GJ 12-15 $/GJ Less than 12$/GJ

2050 transport energydemand

High estimate

Van Vuuren, D.P., Stehfest, E. and Van Vliet, J. (2009). Bio-energy potential under various natural constraints. Energy policy

August 5, 2011 6

Costs as function of baseline

Climate policy here introduced in the form of a carbon tax. But in reality there might be a relationship between the SRES scenario and the policy-instruments (or SSP and the CPA)

Van Vuuren (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: An assessment of reduction strategies and costs Climatic Change 81 (2), pp. 119-159.

August 5, 2011 7

Importance of uncertainty

Uncertainty

Scenario independent (e.g. oil resource)

Scenario dependent

Van Vuuren et al. (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), pp. 635-654

August 5, 2011 8

Importance of uncertainty

Van Vuuren et al. (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), pp. 635-654

Monte-Carlo sampling from conditional probability distribution functions and run the model. (conditionality preserves the consistency among the parameters)

August 5, 2011 9

Importance of uncertainty

Van Vuuren et al. (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), pp. 635-654

Energy use CO2 emissions

90th percentile

August 5, 2011 10

There is not a single representation of an SSP in one IAM Runs by other IAMs, obviously, allows to exploring even larger range of uncertainty space for different SSP Selecting illustrative scenarios risks imprinting a particular scenario interpretation on the scientific literature but increases comparability So for ‘Shared Socio-economic Pathways’ trade-off between increasing consistency in the literature vs. decreasing uncertainty. In single studies, obviously, we would like to have high degree of consistency (so a particular impact study may decide only to use MODEL-X scenarios if it wants a high degree of consistency across 1 or 2 axes). Argument for strong emphasis on the basic SSPs and the use of multiple models

August 5, 2011 11

SRES Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

GEO3/GEO4 Global Scenario Group

Economic optimism A1 Markets first Market forces

Reformed markets [A1T/A1-policy] Global Orchestration

Policy first Policy reform

Sustainable development

B1 Technogarden Sustainability first New sustainability Paradigm

Regional sustainability

[B2] Adapting mosaic Eco-communalism

Regional competition

A2 Order from Strenght

Security first Barbarization

Business-as-usual [B2]

Van Vuuren et al.. The use of scenarios in global environmental assessments. Global Environmental Change (under review)

August 5, 2011 12

Table 3. Key assumptions in different ‘scenario families’ Economic

optimism Reformed Markets

Global SD Regional competition

Regional SD Business as Usual

Economic development

very rapid Rapid ranging from slow to rapid

slow ranging from mid to rapid

medium (globalisation)

Population growth

Low Low Low high medium medium

Technology development

Rapid Rapid ranging from mid to rapid

slow ranging from slow to rapid

medium

Main objectives

economic growth

various goals

global sustainability

security local sustainability

not defined

Environmental protection

reactive both reactive and proactive

proactive reactive proactive both reactive and proactive

Trade

globalisation globalisation globalisation trade barriers

trade barriers weak globalisation

Policies and institutions

policies create open markets

policies reduce market failures

strong global governance

strong national governments

local steering; local actors

mixed

Note: This table summarises key assumptions in very general terms. Where differences within a set of scenario families exist, broad ranges are indicated.

Van Vuuren et al.. The use of scenarios in global environmental assessments. Global Environmental Change (under review)

August 5, 2011 13

Sea level rise impacts (adaption costs + damage in 2000-2100, $)

Van Vuuren et al. (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation . Global Environmental Change 21 (2), pp. 575-591

ADAM-project (Adaptation and Mitigation)

B2 (4oC) B2-450 (2oC)

In the category CPA we tend to focus on mitigation (defines RF-level).

Run IAM model output (population, income, temperature, preciptation) in impact models

August 5, 2011 14

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Wat

er st

ress

(mil.

peo

ple)

2000 Population Climate

Water stress (people explosed)

Arnell, N, Van Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011). The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Global Environmental Change 21 (2), pp. 592-603

B2 (4oC)

ADAM-project (Adaptation and Mitigation)

Run IAM model output (population, income, temperature, preciptation) in impact models

August 5, 2011 15

People at water stress

Arnell, N, Van Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011). The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. GEC

B2 (4o)

B2-450 (2o)

August 5, 2011 16

People at water stress

Arnell, N, Van Vuuren, D.P. and Isaac, M. (2011). The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. GEC

August 5, 2011 17

Pattern of climate change may be much more important for some impacts than climate sensitivity of the model or whether a model is wet/dry on a global scale. It is difficult to determine a priori which models is going to lead to the largest impacts; also depends on the impact. So again, there is a strong trade-off between increasing consistency among the community to facilitate assessment and reducing uncertainty Important to define a minimum set of of shared parameters that is sufficient to allow comparability; ensures consistencies. In addition, make sure that other sets of richer data are available for modellers at the descretion of the individual modellers.

August 5, 2011 18

Special Issue Climatic Change   1. Overview paper (van Vuuren et al.)   2. MESSAGE paper (Riahi et al.)   3. AIM paper (Matsui et al.)   4. GCAM paper (Thomson et al.)   5. IMAGE paper (van Vuuren et al.)   6. Land use paper (Hurtt et al.)   7. Emission inventory paper (Garnier et al.)   8. Atm. Chemistry paper (Lamarque et al.)   9. GHG conc. & extension (Meinshausen et al)