imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy...

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Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous economic, social, and emotional considerations, and you decide to base your decision entirely on the following few observations. To which parent would you award sole custody of the child? Parent A, who has an average income, average health, average working hours, a reasonable rapport with the child, and a relatively stable social life, or Parent B, who has an above-average income, minor health problems, lots of work- related travel, a very close

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Page 1: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous economic, social, and emotional considerations, and you decide to base your decision entirely on the following few observations. To which parent would you award sole custody of the child? Parent A, who has an average income, average health, average working hours, a reasonable rapport with the child, and a relatively stable social life, or Parent B, who has an above-average income, minor health problems, lots of work-related travel, a very close relationship with the child, and an extremely active social life.

Page 2: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

ThinkingThinkingChapter 9, Lecture 1Chapter 9, Lecture 1

“The wisdom to know when we know a thingand when we do not is born of experience.”

- David Myers

Page 3: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Thinking

Thinking, or cognition, refers to a process that involves knowing,

understanding, remembering, and communicating.

Page 4: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Cognitive Psychologists

Thinking involves a number of mental activities, which are listed below. Cognitive

psychologists study these in great detail.

1. Concepts2. Problem solving3. Decision making4. Judgment

formation

Page 5: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Concepts

The mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people. There are a variety of chairs but

their common features define the concept of a chair.

Page 6: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Category HierarchiesWe organize concepts into category hierarchies.

Courtesy of

Christine B

rune

Page 7: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Development of ConceptsWe form some concepts with definitions. For example, a triangle has three sides. Mostly, we form concepts with mental

images or typical examples (prototypes). For example, a robin is a prototype of a

bird, but a penguin is not.

Triangle (definition) Bird (mental image)

Daniel J. C

ox/ Getty Im

ages

J. Messerschm

idt/T

he Picture C

ube

Page 8: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Problem Solving

Problem solving strategies include:

1. Trial and Error2. Algorithms3. Heuristics4. Insight

Let’s play a dice game!!!Let’s play a dice game!!!

Page 9: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Algorithms

Algorithms, which are very time consuming, exhaust all possibilities before arriving at a

solution. Computers use algorithms.

S P L O Y O C H Y GIf we were to unscramble these letters to

form a word using an algorithmic approach, we would face 907,200

possibilities.

Page 10: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Heuristics

Heuristics are simple, thinking strategies that

allow us to make judgments and solve problems efficiently.

Heuristics are less time consuming, but more

error-prone than algorithms.

B2M

Productions/Digital V

ersion/Getty Im

ages

Page 11: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Heuristics

Heuristics make it easier for us to use simple principles to arrive at solutions to problems.

S P L O Y O C H Y GS P L O Y O C H G YP S L O Y O C H G YP S Y C H O L O G Y

Put a Y at the end, and see if the wordbegins to make sense.

Page 12: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Insight

Insight involves a sudden novel

realization of a solution to a problem. Humans and animals

have insight.

Grande using boxes toobtain food

Page 13: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Insight

Brain imaging and EEG studies suggest that when an insight

strikes (the “Aha” experience), it

activates the right temporal cortex (Jung-

Beeman & others, 2004). The time

between not knowing the solution and

realizing it is about 0.3 seconds.

From

Mark Jung-B

eekman, N

orthwestern

University and John K

ounios, Drexel U

niversity

Page 14: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Obstacles in Solving Problems

Confirmation Bias: A tendency to search for information that confirms a personal bias.

2 – 4 – 6

Rule: Any ascending series of numbers. 1 – 2 – 3 would comply. Wason’s students

had difficulty figuring out the rule due to a confirmation bias (Wason, 1960).

Page 15: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous economic, social, and emotional considerations, and you decide to base your decision entirely on the following few observations. To which parent would you award sole custody of the child? Parent A, who has an average income, average health, average working hours, a reasonable rapport with the child, and a relatively stable social life, or Parent B, who has an above-average income, minor health problems, lots of work-related travel, a very close relationship with the child, and an extremely active social life.

Page 16: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

16

FixationFixation: An inability to see a problem from a fresh perspective. This impedes

problem solving. An example of fixation is functional fixedness.

The Matchstick Problem: How

would you arrange six matches to form

four equilateral triangles?

From

“Problem

Solving” by M

. Scheerer. C

opyright © 1963 by

Scientific A

merican, Inc. A

ll Rights R

eserved.

Page 17: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Using these materials, how would you mount the candle on a bulletin board?

Candle-Mounting Problem

From

“Problem

Solving” by M

. Scheerer. C

opyright © 1963 by

Scientific A

merican, Inc. A

ll Rights R

eserved.

Page 18: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

The Matchstick Problem: Solution

From

“Problem

Solving” by M

. Scheerer. C

opyright © 1963 by

Scientific A

merican, Inc. A

ll Rights R

eserved.

Page 19: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Candle-Mounting Problem: Solution

Page 20: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Making Decision & Forming Judgments

Each day we make hundreds of judgments and decisions based on our intuition, seldom using systematic reasoning.

Page 21: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Using and Misusing Heuristics

Two kinds of heuristics, representative heuristics and availability heuristics, have

been identified by cognitive psychologists.

Amos Tversky Daniel Kahneman

Courtesy of G

reymeyer A

ward, U

niversity of L

ouisville and the Tversky fam

ily

Courtesy of G

reymeyer A

ward, U

niversity of L

ouisville and Daniel K

ahneman

Page 22: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Representativeness HeuristicJudging the likelihood of things or objects in terms of how well they seem to represent, or

match, a particular prototype.

Linda is 31, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy in college. As a student, she was deeply concerned with discrimination and other social issues, and she participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Which statement is more likely?(a) Linda is a bank teller.

(b) Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement.

Page 23: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Availability HeuristicWhy does our availability heuristic lead us astray?

Whatever increases the ease of retrieving information increases its perceived availability.

How is retrieval facilitated?

1. How recently we have heard about the event.

2. How distinct it is.3. How correct it is.

Handout 9-5 offers more examples…Handout 9-5 offers more examples…

Page 24: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

OverconfidenceIntuitive heuristics, confirmation of beliefs,

and the inclination to explain failures increase our overconfidence.

Overconfidence is a tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and

judgments.

In the stock market, both the seller and the buyer may be confident about

their decisions on a stock.

Complete Handout 9-6!Complete Handout 9-6!

Page 25: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Exaggerated Fear

The opposite of having overconfidence is

having an exaggerated fear

about what may happen. Such fears may be unfounded.

The 9/11 attacks led to a decline in air travel

due to fear.

AP

/ Wide W

orld Photos

Page 26: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

The Effects of Framing

Decisions and judgments may be significantly affected depending upon how an issue is

framed.

Example: What is the best way to market ground beef — as 25% fat or 75% lean?

Page 27: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

The Belief Perseverance Phenomenon

Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to our beliefs in the face of contrary

evidence.

If you see that a country is hostile, you are likely to interpret their ambiguous

actions as a sign of hostility (Jervis, 1985).

Page 28: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

Perils & Powers of Intuition

Intuition may be perilous if unchecked, but may also be extremely efficient and

adaptive.

“Check your fears against the facts and resistthose who serve their own purposes bycultivating a culture of fear.”

- David Myers

Page 29: Imagine that you serve on the jury of an only-child sole custody case following a relatively messy divorce. The facts of the case are complicated by ambiguous

HomeworkRead p.382-391

“Today’s psychological science enhances ourappreciation for intuition. But it also remindsus to check our intuitions against reality.”

- David Myers