Immigration in the 2000s

POL 168: Latin@ Politics

Brad JonesDept. of Political ScienceUC-Davishttp://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/bsjjones

Historical Evolution of Border Crossing Border crossing historically an issue

And sometimes even a non-issue! Modern Era

San Diego-Tijuana SectorOperation GatekeeperOperation Hold-the-LineNAFTA

Border: 1990s

Political Backlash Against Immigrants: Almost all are Latino High Profile Ballot Propositions Pass in California and Arizona in Mid 1990s, Early 2000s

Proposition 187: Assistance for Immigrants (California) Immigration levels prompt Prop 187 in Ca.

Prop 187 ads from 1996 (grainy video) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0f1PE8Kzng Proposition 209: Affirmative Action (California) Proposition 227: English-Only, Bilingual Education (California) Proposition 203: English-Only, Bilingual Education (Arizona)

U.S. Border Patrol Changes Strategy in Mid-1990s 1994’s “Operation Gatekeeper” is Initiated by INS/Border Patrol Entry Shifts from Ports-of-Entry (i.e. San Diego) to the Desert Border Patrol and the “OTM” category Illegal immigration dominated by Latino Migration “Catch and Release” Policy Creates Incentive for OTM Migration

Border Patrol Agentshttp://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/143/include/rep143table3.html

Deaths on the Border: Pima County Arizona

Along the border, paramilitary operations flourish.

1977: Klan Border Watch

Early 1980s: Aryan Nations

Late 1980s-Mid 1990s: DavidDuke/KKK

1992: Voices of Citizens Together

1996: U.S. Citizens Patrol

1999: American Border Patrol

2000: Ranch Rescue

2003: Civil Homeland Defense

2004: The Minutemen

Anti-Immigration Group Websites

Gilchrest’s Minutemen Projecthttp://www.minutemanproject.com/

Minutemen Civil Defense Corpshttp://www.minutemanhq.com/hq/

American Border Patrolhttp://www.americanborderpatrol.com/

Anti-Immigration Rhetoric

Mainstream Press (Lou Dobbs, CNN) Fringe Groups (Chris Simcox, Glenn

Spencer) Politicians (Tom Tancredo R-CO) Many others… And then immigration is propelled onto

national scene.

Sept. 11, 2001

Late 1990s, early 2000s, immigration and the border remain largely a regional issue

This all changes in one day: 9/11/01.

Focus turns immediately to the border

National security directly linked to immigration/border Issue

The Link is Made Between the Border and Terror, Between Migrants and Terrorists

Department of Homeland Security Created in 2003

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Mission Statement:

“The U.S. Customs and Border Protection priority mission – keeping terrorists and terrorist weapons from entering the United States – places CBP on the frontline of the war on terrorism. As the nation’s unified border agency, CBP is strategicallypositioned at and between our ports of entry to prevent further terrorist attacks on our nation.” (source: http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/border_security/)

9/11 Commission Report Reinforces Terror Connection

Immigration and Nat. Security Activists Tie Border Legislation to Terror:

“It is the purpose of 9/11 Families for a Secure America to make Americans and their elected representatives aware of the obvious truth stated by the 9/11 Commission and the equally obvious fact that the problems of open borders, illegal immigration and terrorism are inextricably linked.” (9/11 Families for a Secure America [http://www.911fsa.org/])

All The While, Exposure to the Immigration/Border Increases

Newspaper Coverage

Newspaper Coverage

http://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/bsjjones/newspapertab.pdf

Federal Legislation

Border Patrol Recruitment Video View and consider major themes and

images: http://nemo.cbp.gov/obp/BPcommercial_Hi

gh.mpg

“OTM” Threat Linked To Al-Qaida

“Recent information from ongoinginvestigations, detentions and emerging threat streams strongly suggests that al-Qaeda has considered using the southwestern border to infiltrate the United States." –Adm. James Loy, Deputy H.S. Secretary

"The indication that al Qaeda operatives are trying to penetrate our border through Mexico clearly demonstrates that nationalsecurity is unavoidably linked to border security.”—Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)

“We are concerned, Homeland Security is concerned about special interest aliens entering the United States.” --FBI Director Robert Mueller

Arizona is “terrorist alley.”—Col. Ben Anderson, U.S.Army (Ret.)

"There are Middle Easterners coming across the border as we speak.“—Former Border Patrol Agent David Stoddard

Special Interest OTM Apprehensions

729 721 736

676

766

849807

626

510

2.88 2.19 1.65 1.71 1.82 2.28 1.63 0.83 0.430

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005

YearSource: Congressional Research Service

Num

ber

App

rehe

nded

And Yet The Face of Immigration Remains the Same Despite National Security

Threat, Immigration has remained a Latino Issue

Latino Immigration is Peaking as

9/11 Hits

The Focus on the Border resulted

In greater exposure to Latino issues and images.

Almost all of the content conveys

negative images of Latinos

All of this Playing Out on

National Stage

Backlash?

Immigration becomes among the dominant items on the political agenda 2005-2008

Rhetoric primarily “restrictionist” in tone. Legislative proposals at all levels of government

become widespread. Bias incidents on the rise in the 2000s

Though they had similar peaks in the mid-1990s

FBI Hate Crime Data

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

40

05

00

60

07

00

80

0

Anti-Hispanic Hate Crime

Year

Fre

qu

en

cy

FBI Data and Bias Incidents

Peak similar to 1996 but what are the major differences?

What about perceptions of discrimination among Latinos?

Pew Data, 2004-2002 How much of a problem is discrimination?

None, Some, Very Much Bias incidents to you, family, or friends in the

past 5 years?

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

30

40

50

60

70

Indicators of Discrimination

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Discrimination is 'Major Problem'

Those reporting a bias incident

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

010

20

30

40

50

Reasons for Discrimination: Pew 2007

Reason

Fre

quency

Income Level

Skin Color

Language

Immigration

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

010

20

30

40

Worried about Deportation Pew 2007

Level of Worry

Fre

quency

Not at All

Not Much

Some

A Lot

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

020

40

60

Congressional Inaction and Perceived Danger: Pew 2007

Level of Danger

Fre

quency

Less Dangerous

No Difference

More Dangerous

Bias and Discrimination

Trend is upward Perceptions of and experience of bias incidents have significantly

increased over time. Consider and understand what the 2007 data underscores Jones’ thesis: Many Americans view Latinos through “Huntington’s

Lens” Perception of Latinos as a cultural threat has largely been driven by

the immigration issue. Legislative Responsiveness has also been largely restrictionist. ICE Raids and deportations underscores the politics of the 2000s Some data

Congressional Legislation

Ideology and Sponsorship/Co-sponsorship of Congressional Legislation

“The likelihood of supporting restrictionist legislation as a function of ideology and border status.”

Strong connection to ideology and the border. However, by late 2000s, distribution of

sponsorship was more diffuse.

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

0.1

50

.20

0.2

50

.30

Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status

MC Ideology

Pro

ba

bili

ty

Border State Districts

Non-Border State Districts

Ideology and Border Status: 1993-1996

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status

MC Ideology

Pro

ba

bili

ty

Border State Districts

Non-Border State Districts

Ideology and Border Status: 2001-2004

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status

MC Ideology

Pro

ba

bili

ty

Border State Districts

Non-Border State Districts

Ideology and Border Status: 2005-2008

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status

MC Ideology

Pro

babi

lity

Border State Districts

Non-Border State Districts

Congressional Action

Previous Slides are preliminary General Trends? What about the current period? From the perspective of Latinos, what might be

going on? Given strongest restrictionist rhetoric has been

on the right, might we observe implications for parties?

Partisan Implications Redux

Are there predictable patterns in partisan attitudes among Latinos?

Party Identification and Best Party Question

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

02

04

06

0

Party Affiliation

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Republican

Democratic

No Difference

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

020

4060

Best Party for Latino Interests: All Respondents

Year

Per

cent

age

Republican

Democratic

No Difference

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

020

4060

Best Party for Latino Interests: Republican Identifiers

Year

Per

cent

age

Democratic

RepublicanNo Difference

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

020

4060

Best Party for Latino Interests: Democratic Identifiers

Year

Per

cent

age

Republican

Democratic

No Difference

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

020

4060

Best Party for Latino Interests: Independents

Year

Per

cent

age

Republican

Democratic

No Difference

Long Term Implications?

Not clear at this point but one can speculate. Issue seems to have gone dormant… But it will return. Report on CNN (after 2008 Election)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP1FKSNBiSA O’Reilly (Nov. 2008)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBBG68Sa8Nc&feature=related

O’Reilly (2007)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhwwbNA3hjg