immpa: integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis · 2015. 11. 18. · and long-run...
TRANSCRIPT
Part 3: “Hands-on”
IMMPA:
Integrated Macroeconomic Model
for Poverty Analysis
Workshop EAE 5918
IPE/USP – 2009
Alejandro Izquierdo and
Eduardo Haddad
l Government
è Sets tax rates on domestic sales, imports,
income and profits.
è Allocates public expenditure to current
consumption and investment (infrastructure,
health, education).
è Public spending has three types of effects.
4Conventional aggregate demand effects
(impact on consumption);
4 Effect on private investment (complementarity
between public investment in infrastructure and
private capital formation);
4Supply-side effect. Private production
(agriculture and urban formal sectors) depends
on the stock of government capital in
infrastructure and health.
è Deficit financing
4 Various options are possible.
4 Prototype: financing is given from “below the
line.”
4 Flow budget constraint determines lump-sum
transfers.
4 Implications: focus on the income effects of
induced changes in the budget;
4 No changes in distortionary taxes and
incentives.
Debt Relief: Savings allocated to
Transfers
• Immediate demand effects:
YHh Ch , Hh (money holdings)
• Effects on government: Reduction in confiscation risk:
IF * FL_G , TAXREV Z
• Effects on credit market:
Z DL_P PR IL
• Pk has not increased as fast lower net worth
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Effects on goods market:
• Agric. Traded:
IL effective wage for U-AT,
So U-AT X-AT
• Agric. Non-Traded:
U-AN (fall in product wage ) X-AN
• Short run though, fall in X-AN. Why? K-G (I-G, PQ-P)
• Private formal:
Z K-P MPS S
S MPU-P U-P (product wage )
Final result: X-P
Effects on goods market, ctd:
• Short-run, though, fall in X-P. Why?
• P_US> P_T2 w-s to keep effort levels S. Then, U-P
• Also, K-G short-run K-P
• Informal:
• Short run: U-P U-I X-I
• Long run: U-P (S) U -I X-I (but increases product wage and consumption wage)
• Exports: E-A (less output given higher labor costs), E-P (higher domestic consumption)
• Imports: M-A, M-P
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Migration:
• EwA<EwU MIGR
• This eventually puts upward pressure on
W-I/P_UU
Skills acquisition:
• EwS<EwU SKL
• UNEMP?
• Short-run: S-P UNEMP
• Long-run: S-P UNEMP (even with SKL)
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Financial Markets:
• Higher money holdings, including as share of total assets (transactions effect)
• Higher loan interest rates
• Increase in loans for higher investment financed with higher foreign bank loans (increase in deposits not sufficient, rem. DD/W)
• Increase in foreign exchange reserves (lower trade balance more than compensated by private banks capital inflows)
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Actual stock of loans is demand determined, and
banks borrow on world capital markets the required
“shortfall” given their domestic sources of funds.
Welfare:
• Per capita real consumption goes up (CPC-AN, CPC-AT, CPC-I, CPC-S, not CPC-UF)
• Consumption-based Poverty Headcount, short, medium and long-run
• Income-based Poverty Headcount, short and long-run
• Poverty gap decreases in short, medium and long run-run (for both consumption and income-based measures)
• Share (U-AN+U-I)/POP eventually falls (inc. in short run, “rough poverty measure”)
Debt Relief: Savings allocated to
Infrastructure
• Typical demand effects, but also supply-side effects:
K-I K-G MP of all factors in rural traded, rural non-traded and private formal sectors U-AT, U-P, S-P, Z
• Additional effect on investment via government: Reduction in confiscation risk:
IF * FL_G , TAXREV Z
• Effects on credit market:
Z DL_P PR IL (In short run. In long run, IL because higher K-P)
11
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PR
DL
DLNWPR pr
P
PPcprpr
pr
PPPP FLERDLKPKNW
Effects on goods market:
• Agric. Traded:
IL, but negative effect of loan rate on effective
wages and output is offset by productivity gains
X-AT (whereas transfer case X-AT fell)
• Agric. Non-Traded:
MPU-AN X-AN
• Private formal:
Z K-P MPS S-P
S-P MPU-P U-P (product wage )
K-I K-G MPU-P, MPS-P,
MP_K-P U-P, S-P, Z
Final result: X-P (notice much higher values than
transfers case)
• Notice UNEMP (S) much lower than transfer case
• Informal:
U-P U-I X-I (but increases product
wage and consumption wage)
• Exports: both E-A, E-P (previously both
down). Why? See shift in transformation curve
• Imports: M-A, M-P . Why? See shift in
Armington function.
Migration:
• EwA<EwU MIGR
• This helps explain W-I/P_UU
Skills acquisition:
• EwS<EwU SKL
• UNEMP?
• S-P UNEMP (even with SKL, both short run and long run)
Financial markets:
• Higher money holdings, including as share of total assets (transactions effect)
• Higher loan interest rates initially, but lower in the long run. Why? Value of collateral increases as K-P increases
• Increase in loans for higher investment financed with higher foreign bank loans (increase in deposits not sufficient, remember DD/W)
• Increase in foreign exchange reserves exceeds that of transfers scenario (higher trade balance but almost the same private banks capital inflows)
Welfare:
• Notice transfers to households eventually larger
than under transfer scenario. Why? Higher tax
collection due to increased activity.
• Per capita real consumption goes up for some
sectors (CPC-AN, CPC-I, CPC-S, not CPC-UF,
CPC-AT). For growing CPC groups, long-run
effects are bigger than transfers case
• Consumption-based and Income-based Poverty
Headcount, especially in the long run. Long-run
measures outperform transfers case by a factor of 2
Welfare, continued:
• However, in the short run, transfers outperform
infrastructure investment! Importance of
dynamic model
• Consumption-based poverty gap decreases in short,
medium and long run
• Gini coefficients, though lower than in base, are
higher than transfers case. Makes sense, given not
all sectors are affected equally by infrastructure
increases
Policy Rankings
Total PovertyHeadcount
Infrastructure Education Transfers
Urban PovertyHeadcount
Education Infrastructure Transfers
Rural PovertyHeadcount
Infrastructure Education Transfers
- Infrastructure is PPF enhancing
- Education increases the supply of skilled labor but
there may be unemployment
- Has direct effects in urban areas
- Policy mix? Better than Education only
Why?
Concluding Remarks
A great variety of fiscal policy measures can be analyzed with IMMPA:
l 1. Revenue neutral income/sales tax reform (taxation of profits, labor income).
l 2. Tariff reform (neutral or not); link between trade liberalization and fiscal adjustment.
l 3. Adjustment in public sector wages and employment (lay-offs).
l 4. Changes in payroll taxation on unskilled labor.
l 5. Changes in the level or composition of lump-sum transfers (redistribution to low-income households).
l 6. Fiscal sustainability rules (e.g. IMMPA-Brazil,
link between interest rate premium on public bonds
and the stock of public debt). Endogenize either
government spending or tax rates.
l 7. Changes in the mix of public investment:
changes in the allocation of investment between
infrastructure, education, and health.
l 8. Changes in the price of public sector services.
l 9. Changes in the degree of congestion of public
services in the urban sector.
l Issue 7: key question in the context of a poverty
reduction strategy: what is the public “investment
mix” that has the greatest effect on poverty?
l Particularly important for low-income countries that
are benefiting from debt relief, but with the
understanding that the savings must be reallocated
to poverty reducing measures.
l IMMPA: a flexible tool that can be amended or
extended in various ways.
l Example: adverse effect of external debt
è High public external debt may also lead to private
capital flight.
è Debt reduction may not only stimulate private
investment but also private capital inflows.
è Endogenizing these flows would provide another
source of positive externalities.
Other types of adjustment policies that can be
analyzed with IMMPA:
l Monetary and financial policies
è Changes in domestic credit to government; study
of crowding-out effects.
è Financial liberalization (increase in bank deposit
rates).
è Private capital outflow.
è Change in world interest rates.
è Changes in reserve requirement rates.
è Nominal exchange rate devaluation.
è Monetary policy rules (inflation targeting).
l Labor market reforms.
è Changes in minimum wages.
è Switch to flexible wages in the formal sector.
è Incentives for skills acquisition.
è Changes in payroll taxation (both skilled and
unskilled labor).
è Unemployment insurance.
Country applications
l Country applications under way: Brazil, Cameroon,
Morocco, Senegal, Turkey.
l New countries: Benin, Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia.
l Updates: IMMPA website, IMMPA Newsletter.
http://www.worldbank.org/immpa