imo perspective on reliability a presentation to the ieee toronto section forum on reliable power...
TRANSCRIPT
IMO Perspective on Reliability
A presentation to the IEEE Toronto Section
Forum on Reliable Power Grids in Canada
by
Dan Rochester, Section Head - Assessments
Independent Electricity Market Operator
October 3, 2003
ONTARIOONTARIO
The events described here, and those not fully catalogued, may change as the investigation progresses.
Full document available at http://www.doe.gov
11:05 AM - 3:13 PM EST
Affected Area
300 MW Load
1200 MW Generation
Smoky30 MW
40 MW Load720 Generation
Des Joachims20 MW
800 MW Load480 MW Generation
320 MW680 M
W
To New York
900 MW
• “…to maintain the reliability of the IMO-controlled grid…”
• “…to participate in the development by any standards authority of standards and criteria relating to the reliability of transmission systems…”
• Supporting Activities:– resource (MW/MVAr) and transmission needs identification (IMO
Outlooks)
– connection assessments of new facilities
– comprehensive reviews of transmission and generation adequacy (NPCC)
IMO’s reliability role
Assessing New Connections
• Generation, Load, Transmission• IMO assesses projects• approval if no adverse impact• conditional approval if remedial measures
required• [coordination of assessments approaches a
planning function]
• 10-Year Outlooks influence investment– resource adequacy, transmission adequacy,
risks and requirements
Looking out 10-Years
Legend:
Existing Resources Intermediate Resources Planned Resources
Required Resources Required Resources Required Resources
Low Demand Growth Median Demand Growth High Demand Growth
Median Demand Growth, Annual Peak
20,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High Demand Growth, Annual Peak
20,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Year
MW
Hydroelectric (65 years)
Nuclear (40 years)
Fossil (40 years)
Existing Generation Capacity
11 5 K V
O A K V IL L E
L O R N EPA R K
B 1 6 C
B 1 5 C
M ILT O N
B R A M A L E A
M 5 7 2 TM 5 7 3 T
5 0 0 K V
P IC K E R IN G
A pp lew oo dJu nc tio n
2 30 kV
L 2 4 C R
L 2 4 C R
L 2 3 C K L 2 1 K
L 2 2 K
L A K E V IE W
R 2 K
C 2 0 RC 1 8 R
C 1 2 RC 1 1 R
C 4 RC 5 R
C L A IR E V IL L E
2 3 0 K V
5 0 0 K VB U T T O N V IL L E
A G IN C O U R T
C 1 0 AD u ffin
Ju n c t io n
C 2 8 C
A B
F O R D
G O R E WAY
V 7 3 R
C AVA N A G H
B U R L IN G T O N
M A N B Y
L E A S ID E
R IC H V IE W
C H E R RY W O O D
T R A FA L G A R
2 3 0 k V2 3 0 k V 44
C O O K S V IL L E
H O R N E R
C 1 1 R C 1 2 R
C 5 5 1 V
C 5 5 0 VC 55 1 V
C 55 0 V
id le
V 7 2 R
V 7 3 R
V 7 6 R
R IC H V IE WD E S N
R E X D A L E
R 1 9 TR 2 1 T
R 1 4 TR 1 7 T
T 36 B
T 37 B
R 1 K
R 1 3 K
R 1 5 K
5 00 kV
2 30 kV
W O O D B R ID G E
VA U G H A N 3
VA U G H A N 2 VA U G H A N 1 R IC H M O N DH IL L 1
R IC H M O N DH IL L 2
K L E IN B U R G
B R O W N H IL L
V 7 1 R
V 7 5 R
V 7 4 RV 7 5 R
B 8 2 V
B 8 3 V
A R M ITA G E
M A N B Y D E S N
M E A D O W VA L E
H A LT O N
E R IN D A L E
T O M K E N
FA IR C H IL D
L E S L IEB AT H U R S T
F IN C H
IB M
M A R K H A MN o s . 4 & 3
M A R K H A M 1M A R K H A M 2
S C A R B O R O
E L L E S M E R E
WA R D E N
B E R M O N D S E Y
S H E P PA R D
JIM YA R R O W
P L E A S A N T
P9C
P8C
P32C
P27
C
P31C
P30
C
P6C
P7C
V71
RV
72R
V73
RV
74R
V75
RV
76R
D IA G R A M 4
4
T R A FA L G A R D E S N
P ro p o sed 2 3 0 k V Tra nsm iss io n R ein fo rc em en tfo r the G rea ter To ro n to A rea
4
P ar kw ay T S
H u ro n tar ioS S
N ewT S
PA L E R M O
T 39 B
T 38 B
• 18-Month Outlooks influence operations– resource adequacy, outage planning, inter-tie
benefits
Looking out 18-Months
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
Normal Weather
What we see in the Outlooks
• Supply improving
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005
Week Ending
Mar
gin
[M
W]
Planned Resource Scenario
Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources
Existing Resource Scenario
Normal Weather
What we see in the Outlooks• additional supply/ demand response req’d
Legend:
Existing Resources Intermediate Resources Planned Resources
Required Resources Required Resources Required Resources
Low Demand Growth Median Demand Growth High Demand Growth
Median Demand Growth, Annual Peak
20,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High Demand Growth, Annual Peak
20,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
What we see in the Outlooks
• generation fleet aging
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Year
MW
Hydroelectric (65 years)
Nuclear (40 years)
Fossil (40 years)
Existing Generation Capacity
What we see in the Outlooks• transmission reinforcement required
11 5K V
O A K V IL L E
L O R N EPA R K
B 1 6 C
B 1 5 C
M ILT O N
B R A M A L E A
M 5 7 2 TM 5 7 3 T
500 K V
P IC K E R IN G
A pp lew oodJunc tion
2 30 kV
L 2 4 C R
L 2 4 C R
L 2 3 C K L 2 1 K
L 2 2 K
L A K E V IE W
R 2 K
C 2 0 RC 1 8 R
C 1 2 RC 1 1 R
C 4 RC 5 R
C L A IR E V IL L E
230 K V
500 K VB U T T O N V IL L E
A G IN C O U R T
C 1 0 AD u ffin
Ju n c t io n
C 2 8 C
A B
FO R D
G O R E WAY
V 7 3 R
C AVA N A G H
B U R L IN G T O N
M A N B Y
L E A S ID E
R IC H V IE W
C H E R R Y W O O D
T R A FA L G A R
2 3 0 k V2 3 0 k V 44
C O O K SV IL L E
H O R N E R
C 1 1 R C 1 2 R
C 5 5 1 V
C 5 5 0 VC 55 1 V
C 55 0 V
id le
V 7 2 R
V 7 3 R
V 7 6 R
R IC H V IE WD E S N
R E X D A L E
R 1 9 TR 2 1 T
R 1 4 TR 1 7 T
T 36 B
T 37 B
R 1 K
R 1 3 K
R 1 5 K
5 00 kV
2 30 kV
W O O D B R ID G E
VA U G H A N 3
VA U G H A N 2 VA U G H A N 1 R IC H M O N DH IL L 1
R IC H M O N DH IL L 2
K L E IN B U R G
B R O W N H IL L
V 7 1 R
V 7 5 R
V 7 4 RV 7 5 R
B 8 2 V
B 8 3 V
A R M ITA G E
M A N B Y D E SN
M E A D O W VA L E
H A LT O N
E R IN D A L E
T O M K E N
FA IR C H IL D
L E SL IEB AT H U R ST
FIN C H
IB M
M A R K H A MN os. 4 & 3
M A R K H A M 1
M A R K H A M 2
SC A R B O R O
E L L E SM E R E
WA R D E N
B E R M O N D S E Y
SH E PPA R D
JIM YA R R O W
PL E A SA N T
P9C
P8C
P32C
P27
C
P31C
P30
C
P6C
P7C
V71
RV
72R
V73
RV
74R
V75
RV
76R
D IA G R A M 4
4
T R A FA L G A R D E S N
P ro p o sed 2 3 0 k V Tra nsm iss io n R ein fo rc em en tfo r the G rea ter To ro n to A rea
4
P ar kw ay T S
H u ro n tar ioS S
N ewT S
PA L E R M O
T 39 B
T 38 B