imo perspective on reliability a presentation to the ieee toronto section forum on reliable power...

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IMO Perspective on Reliability A presentation to the IEEE Toronto Section Forum on Reliable Power Grids in Canada by Dan Rochester, Section Head - Assessments Independent Electricity Market Operator October 3, 2003

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IMO Perspective on Reliability

A presentation to the IEEE Toronto Section

Forum on Reliable Power Grids in Canada

by

Dan Rochester, Section Head - Assessments

Independent Electricity Market Operator

October 3, 2003

August 14, 2003

ONTARIOONTARIO

The events described here, and those not fully catalogued, may change as the investigation progresses.

Full document available at http://www.doe.gov

11:05 AM - 3:13 PM EST

Ontario Demand

Affected Area

300 MW Load

1200 MW Generation

Smoky30 MW

40 MW Load720 Generation

Des Joachims20 MW

800 MW Load480 MW Generation

320 MW680 M

W

To New York

900 MW

Restoration PathsRestoration Paths

• “…to maintain the reliability of the IMO-controlled grid…”

• “…to participate in the development by any standards authority of standards and criteria relating to the reliability of transmission systems…”

• Supporting Activities:– resource (MW/MVAr) and transmission needs identification (IMO

Outlooks)

– connection assessments of new facilities

– comprehensive reviews of transmission and generation adequacy (NPCC)

IMO’s reliability role

Assessing New Connections

• Generation, Load, Transmission• IMO assesses projects• approval if no adverse impact• conditional approval if remedial measures

required• [coordination of assessments approaches a

planning function]

• 10-Year Outlooks influence investment– resource adequacy, transmission adequacy,

risks and requirements

Looking out 10-Years

Legend:

Existing Resources Intermediate Resources Planned Resources

Required Resources Required Resources Required Resources

Low Demand Growth Median Demand Growth High Demand Growth

Median Demand Growth, Annual Peak

20,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High Demand Growth, Annual Peak

20,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

Year

MW

Hydroelectric (65 years)

Nuclear (40 years)

Fossil (40 years)

Existing Generation Capacity

11 5 K V

O A K V IL L E

L O R N EPA R K

B 1 6 C

B 1 5 C

M ILT O N

B R A M A L E A

M 5 7 2 TM 5 7 3 T

5 0 0 K V

P IC K E R IN G

A pp lew oo dJu nc tio n

2 30 kV

L 2 4 C R

L 2 4 C R

L 2 3 C K L 2 1 K

L 2 2 K

L A K E V IE W

R 2 K

C 2 0 RC 1 8 R

C 1 2 RC 1 1 R

C 4 RC 5 R

C L A IR E V IL L E

2 3 0 K V

5 0 0 K VB U T T O N V IL L E

A G IN C O U R T

C 1 0 AD u ffin

Ju n c t io n

C 2 8 C

A B

F O R D

G O R E WAY

V 7 3 R

C AVA N A G H

B U R L IN G T O N

M A N B Y

L E A S ID E

R IC H V IE W

C H E R RY W O O D

T R A FA L G A R

2 3 0 k V2 3 0 k V 44

C O O K S V IL L E

H O R N E R

C 1 1 R C 1 2 R

C 5 5 1 V

C 5 5 0 VC 55 1 V

C 55 0 V

id le

V 7 2 R

V 7 3 R

V 7 6 R

R IC H V IE WD E S N

R E X D A L E

R 1 9 TR 2 1 T

R 1 4 TR 1 7 T

T 36 B

T 37 B

R 1 K

R 1 3 K

R 1 5 K

5 00 kV

2 30 kV

W O O D B R ID G E

VA U G H A N 3

VA U G H A N 2 VA U G H A N 1 R IC H M O N DH IL L 1

R IC H M O N DH IL L 2

K L E IN B U R G

B R O W N H IL L

V 7 1 R

V 7 5 R

V 7 4 RV 7 5 R

B 8 2 V

B 8 3 V

A R M ITA G E

M A N B Y D E S N

M E A D O W VA L E

H A LT O N

E R IN D A L E

T O M K E N

FA IR C H IL D

L E S L IEB AT H U R S T

F IN C H

IB M

M A R K H A MN o s . 4 & 3

M A R K H A M 1M A R K H A M 2

S C A R B O R O

E L L E S M E R E

WA R D E N

B E R M O N D S E Y

S H E P PA R D

JIM YA R R O W

P L E A S A N T

P9C

P8C

P32C

P27

C

P31C

P30

C

P6C

P7C

V71

RV

72R

V73

RV

74R

V75

RV

76R

D IA G R A M 4

4

T R A FA L G A R D E S N

P ro p o sed 2 3 0 k V Tra nsm iss io n R ein fo rc em en tfo r the G rea ter To ro n to A rea

4

P ar kw ay T S

H u ro n tar ioS S

N ewT S

PA L E R M O

T 39 B

T 38 B

• 18-Month Outlooks influence operations– resource adequacy, outage planning, inter-tie

benefits

Looking out 18-Months

-7,000

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005

Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]

Planned Resource Scenario

Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources

Existing Resource Scenario

Normal Weather

What we see in the Outlooks

• Supply improving

-7,000

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

05 Oct 2003 04 Jan 2004 04 Apr 2004 04 Jul 2004 03 Oct 2004 02 Jan 2005

Week Ending

Mar

gin

[M

W]

Planned Resource Scenario

Reserve Margin = Available Resources - Required Resources

Existing Resource Scenario

Normal Weather

What we see in the Outlooks• additional supply/ demand response req’d

Legend:

Existing Resources Intermediate Resources Planned Resources

Required Resources Required Resources Required Resources

Low Demand Growth Median Demand Growth High Demand Growth

Median Demand Growth, Annual Peak

20,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High Demand Growth, Annual Peak

20,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

What we see in the Outlooks

• generation fleet aging

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

Year

MW

Hydroelectric (65 years)

Nuclear (40 years)

Fossil (40 years)

Existing Generation Capacity

What we see in the Outlooks• transmission reinforcement required

11 5K V

O A K V IL L E

L O R N EPA R K

B 1 6 C

B 1 5 C

M ILT O N

B R A M A L E A

M 5 7 2 TM 5 7 3 T

500 K V

P IC K E R IN G

A pp lew oodJunc tion

2 30 kV

L 2 4 C R

L 2 4 C R

L 2 3 C K L 2 1 K

L 2 2 K

L A K E V IE W

R 2 K

C 2 0 RC 1 8 R

C 1 2 RC 1 1 R

C 4 RC 5 R

C L A IR E V IL L E

230 K V

500 K VB U T T O N V IL L E

A G IN C O U R T

C 1 0 AD u ffin

Ju n c t io n

C 2 8 C

A B

FO R D

G O R E WAY

V 7 3 R

C AVA N A G H

B U R L IN G T O N

M A N B Y

L E A S ID E

R IC H V IE W

C H E R R Y W O O D

T R A FA L G A R

2 3 0 k V2 3 0 k V 44

C O O K SV IL L E

H O R N E R

C 1 1 R C 1 2 R

C 5 5 1 V

C 5 5 0 VC 55 1 V

C 55 0 V

id le

V 7 2 R

V 7 3 R

V 7 6 R

R IC H V IE WD E S N

R E X D A L E

R 1 9 TR 2 1 T

R 1 4 TR 1 7 T

T 36 B

T 37 B

R 1 K

R 1 3 K

R 1 5 K

5 00 kV

2 30 kV

W O O D B R ID G E

VA U G H A N 3

VA U G H A N 2 VA U G H A N 1 R IC H M O N DH IL L 1

R IC H M O N DH IL L 2

K L E IN B U R G

B R O W N H IL L

V 7 1 R

V 7 5 R

V 7 4 RV 7 5 R

B 8 2 V

B 8 3 V

A R M ITA G E

M A N B Y D E SN

M E A D O W VA L E

H A LT O N

E R IN D A L E

T O M K E N

FA IR C H IL D

L E SL IEB AT H U R ST

FIN C H

IB M

M A R K H A MN os. 4 & 3

M A R K H A M 1

M A R K H A M 2

SC A R B O R O

E L L E SM E R E

WA R D E N

B E R M O N D S E Y

SH E PPA R D

JIM YA R R O W

PL E A SA N T

P9C

P8C

P32C

P27

C

P31C

P30

C

P6C

P7C

V71

RV

72R

V73

RV

74R

V75

RV

76R

D IA G R A M 4

4

T R A FA L G A R D E S N

P ro p o sed 2 3 0 k V Tra nsm iss io n R ein fo rc em en tfo r the G rea ter To ro n to A rea

4

P ar kw ay T S

H u ro n tar ioS S

N ewT S

PA L E R M O

T 39 B

T 38 B

~ END~