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Table of Contents

Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………….2

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..3

Overview of the US/Turkey Relationship……………………………………………………..4

Impact of Climate Change on National Security……………………………………………..6

Climate Change in Turkey and Impact on US National Security……………………………8

• Rising Temperatures……………………………………………………………………9 • Water Management……………………………………………………………………10 • Food Security…………………………………………………………………………..11 • Earthquakes……………………………………………………………………………13 • Natural Disaster Risk Management/Response……………………………………….14 • Public Health……………………………………………………………………………15

Further Implications of Climate Change in Turkey on US Foreign Policy…………………16

Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………18

References……………………………………………………………………………………….18

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Executive Summary:

In the next 10-15 years, climate change is the greatest threat facing US national security

and foreign policy. A massive hurricane, devastating flood or a colossal earthquake has the po-

tential to eradicate an entire country. As a result, the United States needs to have an action plan

in place that establishes protocols for natural disasters that occur domestically and those that oc-

cur in nations worldwide. Instead of fighting terrorism, the US military may have to intervene in

a water or food war between nations. Because the Middle East is going to remain a strategic area

of interest for the foreseeable future, it is important to consider the implications of climate

change on a pivotal ally in the region like Turkey.

• Turkey has a strategic geographical position in the Middle East because it borders Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Iran, Iraq, and Syria

• The US has an Air Force Base in Incirlik, Turkey

• Natural disasters will lead to regional destabilization and devastating consequences world-wide

• High likelihood for food and water wars between developing nations

• Turkey’s rising population puts them at even greater risk of suffering devastating conse-quences after a natural disaster

• Higher than average rising temperatures in Turkey put the nation at risk of deadly droughts, erosion and flooding

• Because Turkey is supporting the Kurdish population and Syrian refugees the country is at risk of food depletion at a faster rate than the rest of the world

• Turkey is between two massive fault lines and when a deadly earthquake occurs is only a matter of time

• Turkey’s relationship with Iran, Iraq, Syria and Israel is crucial to US foreign policy. A se-rious climate change related event could significantly disrupt these critical relationships.

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Introduction:

Whether or not we like it climate change has arrived and it is here to stay. As a result,

nations have had to develop strategies to address the potential impacts of climate change. Be-

cause the wide sweeping affects of climate change can impact everything from political dis-

course to foreign policy initiatives to the food and water supply, countries around the world need

to be prepared for what the future holds. Combating climate change is not something that can be

tackled by every individual country. Instead, preparing for climate change requires longterm and

sustainable international cooperation. Climate change is quickly becoming the largest and most

complex challenge facing the world today. In addition to the serious environmental conse-

quences, climate change can have a detrimental impact on a nation’s national security, economy

and society.

Because of Turkey’s strategic location in the Middle East, the United States has a vested

interest in ensuring that climate change in Turkey does not negatively impact our foreign policy

initiatives. Currently, Turkey serves as a forward operating base for many of our operations into

the world’s potential trouble spots like Iraq, Iran and Armenia. More specifically, the US has

troops stationed at the Incirlik Air Base in Adana, Turkey (Incirlik Air Base). Given that Turkey

borders hot button nations like Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria it is not surprising that the US has

an interest in maintaining an Air Force base in the country. The threat of climate change in Tur-

key could have serious repercussions on US foreign policy because it could eliminate the ability

of the US to have troops stationed in the region. As Turkey continues to press for membership in

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the European Union, the United States will need to continue to foster a positive and productive

relationship with the nation.

There is no doubt that between 2015 and 2025 climate change will have a major impact

on Turkey’s food supply, public health, the number of natural disasters, natural ecosystems and

water management. The question that must be answered is how will this impact United States

foreign policy and what can be done to mitigate these changes.

Overview of the US/Turkey Relationship:

The relationship between the United States and Turkey can be characterized as a roller

coaster. During World War II, Turkey joined the battle on the side of the Allied forces in 1945

and gained membership in the United Nations as a result. Shortly after the end of the war, Tur-

key faced increased opposition and fears of a communist revolution. Concerns of a Soviet Union

invasion in Turkey led to the United States declaring the Truman Doctrine in 1947. In short, this

doctrine guaranteed the security of Turkey and Greece through military and economic support.

In 1952, Turkey gained membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after assisting the

United Nations forces in the Korean War.

During the Cold War, Turkey and the United States remained close allies with the US of-

fering support despite human rights violations in the region and the Kurdish problem. With the

end of the Cold War, the United States entered into a conflict with Iraq in the Persian Gulf War.

During this period, Turkey supported the US because they recognized that their future security

was dependent on a solid relationship with America. Other US foreign policy initiatives sup-

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ported by Turkey during this time period included the Arab-Israeli peace process and a no-fly

zone in northern Iraq (Burwell).

After the attack on 9/11, Turkey has remained a strategic partner of the US and initially

supported the War on Terror and the invasion of Afghanistan. However, the invasion of Iraq

sparked criticism and outrage throughout Turkey and led to the nation vetoing US troops being

able to invade Iraq through the Turkish border. Despite these issues, Turkey remains a crucial

partner to the US in maintaining stability in the region. In an effort to broker a stronger relation-

ship the US has even supported Turkey’s ascension into the European Union by lobbying on the

nation’s behalf (Morelli).

During the Obama administration, the relationship between Turkey and the US has be-

come more strained. While the nations seem to have a bilateral agreement on the concepts of

free trade and a strategic partnership, there is significant disagreement on issues like Cyprus,

Greece, Iraq, Armenia and the Kurds. Given that the US has a strategic importance to Turkey

because of its prime location, it is unlikely that these issues will cause the relationship to deterio-

rate. However, Congress has made note of potential issues that could impact the alliance like the

relationship between Turkey and Israel, a burgeoning partnership between Turkey and China and

recent political unrest in the nation. Climate change in Turkey could have serious repercussions

on US foreign policy. While the broad consequences of climate change are known, it is next to

impossible to predict the exact outcomes that global warming and other related issues will have

on Turkey. The US must have a contingency plan in place to deal with every possible scenario

so that American foreign policy is least affected by climate change.

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Impact of Climate Change on National Security:

In the coming decade, climate change will lead to more storms, droughts and floods that

will have serious consequences on the stability in countries throughout world. As weather relat-

ed events like Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy have shown in the US, they have the po-

tential to cause widespread damage with power failure, accidents, fatalities and the loss of law

and order in the states affected. Considering that the United States is considered to be a much

more stable nation than Turkey or other countries in the Middle East, the consequences of a simi-

lar storm or natural disaster in one of these locations could have even more widespread negative

implications and consequences. This vision of a perfect storm could lead to regional destabiliza-

tion, wars for a decreasing food/water supply and many more devastating consequences. In a

report by the Council on Foreign Relations experts believe that “internationally, climate change

may cause humanitarian disasters, contribute to political violence and undermine weak govern-

ments” (Busby, ALL). With important natural resources currently being depleted at record rates,

we can expect there to be more climate related conflicts throughout the world in the next decade.

The decreasing supply of new and existing fertile land will lead nations to have to turn to one

another for increased assistance. However, global cooperation and partnership will only go so

far and it is inevitable that armed conflicts will break out. As a result, the US needs to be pre-

pared for conflicts over the fight for resources and land whether than for expansion and invasion.

For example, look at the depletion of worldwide water sources. Given that nearly 25% of

the world’s population lives in an area where the water supply is rapidly depleting, these coun-

tries will have to turn to alternative sources and means to provide for their citizens. Per a study

by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa could be the vic-

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tim of climate induced water depletion by 2020. Disappearing glaciers and lack of snow will

lead to a lack of available fresh water sources in some of the most populous places in the world

like the Himalayas and the Andes. With fresh water sources disappearing, security experts be-

lieve that these nations may enter into conflict with each other for survival (Scheffran, 19-25).

Furthermore, a 2012 Oregon State University study estimated that a minimum of 1 billion people

currently lack access to safe drinking water. Within the next 10-15 years this number will only

increase and with the population expected to increase worldwide, nations will need to develop,

find or steal other sources of fresh drinking water. This quest for safe drinking water has the po-

tential to lead to violent water wars between nations (Petersen-Perlman).

Because climate change is not going to disappear it is important to understand the

changes that are approaching. Scientists have determined that the Earth is warming at an in-

creasingly fast rate and the temperature should rise by an estimated 11˚F in the next 100 years.

While this may not seem to be a significant increase, even just a 1 or 2˚ rise in temperature can

lead to rising temperatures, a greater likelihood of large storms and a decrease in the world’s

supply of drinkable water. It may be easy to assume that climate change will affect every coun-

try the same way because the rising temperatures are a commonality. However, this is not the

case because climate change is leading to devastating droughts in Africa, wildfires in California

and the melting of the polar ice caps in the Arctic (National Security and Climate Change).

When asked to define national security, many people think in terms of terrorism and mili-

tary threats to the United States. However, national security cannot only be defined by external

or internal threats that require a military response. According to the American Security Project,

natural disasters killed more than 1000 Americans in 2012 and caused nearly $24 Billion in dam-

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ages to the United States. Climate change does not know one nation’s borders from the next. As

a result, nations must work together to find this global problem (Vagg, 1-5). By 2025, Earth will

be home to hundreds of millions if not a billion more people who need to fed, bathed and educat-

ed. With this increased pressure on natural resources to sustain this massive increase in popula-

tion, climate change has the potential to be the biggest threat to national security in the next

decade.

Climate Change in Turkey and Impact on US National Security:

Although previously mentioned, the strategic importance of Turkey in US foreign policy

cannot be overstated. In order to maintain a semblance of a stable Middle East and have a mean-

ingful presence in this volatile region, the United States must rely on Turkey as a partner and

ally. As a result, the US has a mutual interest in ensuring that climate change does not have a

negative impact on Turkey. Furthermore, because Turkey lies in both Europe and Asia the coun-

try has strategic importance for the US in being able to monitor conditions in China, North Korea

and other Asian nations. Currently, Turkey is home to more than 600,000 refugees from Syria

that could pose a serious risk to the nation’s security in the event of a climate change related cri-

sis. Although Turkey receives international support from the UN and other bodies for providing

assistance to the refugees it remains a perilous situation that could explode at any moment. Be-

ing that Turkey is prone to earthquakes any form of natural disaster could spark chaos and vio-

lence in the region.

Rising Temperatures:

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Environmental scientists believe that Turkey can expect to have a higher increase in aver-

age temperature during the next decade because of the country’s location in the Mediterranean

basis (Turkey’s National Climate Change Strategy). Even just a 1˚ C increase in temperature

could lead to 10% less rainfall every year. The rising temperature may lead to less frequent

storms; however, these storms will be larger and stronger in nature (Parry). While 1˚ C may

seem to be an inconsequential number, the rising temperature will lead to more droughts, greater

land degradation, flooding and coastal erosion. For an example of the impact of the rising tem-

perature, look to the city of Istanbul. Not only is Istanbul the most popular tourist destination in

Turkey, but also it is the key to the country’s economy and overall well-being. A city steeped in

history, Istanbul is in both Europe and Asia with each side separated by the Bosphorus River. In

addition to its importance as a strait for commercial shipping, the Bosphorus remains a major sea

access route for Russia and Ukraine. Much of Russia’s oil is transported throughout the world

via the Bosphorus. If the rising temperature were to cause the Bosphorus to flood, Istanbul and

Turkey would descend into chaos. Not only would historical landmarks like the Blue Mosque

and the Hagia Sophia by flattened to stones, but also the economy of Turkey would come to a

standstill.

Outside of Istanbul, a study by the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization

determined that the rise in temperature would lead to the disappearance of 50% of the surface

water in the Gediz and Greater Menderes Basins. Although this water is not anticipated to dis-

appear until 2100, the impact will begin being felt immediately. The lack of available water will

plunge Turkey into a water scarcity issue that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later

(Turkey’s National Climate Change Strategy).

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Water Management:

No nation can supply without an adequate supply of fresh water. With rising tempera-

tures leading to less rainfall and more droughts, Turkey has been placed in a precarious position.

According to the Turkish government, Turkey’s population growth rate is nearly twice as high as

the average nation’s population growth (1.24% vs 0.68%). In fact, Turkey has the court highest

population growth rate in the world (Republic of Turkey). Armed with this information, Turkey

needs to have an effective water management system in place to combat this threat. In order to

manage existing water supplies and find new ones, Turkey has prepared an intensive plan that

focuses on the establishment of infrastructure facilities designed to protect existing water, waste

water and other environmental centers. In addition, Turkey has pledged billions of dollars to

combat water management and other climate change related problems. Cities and towns

throughout Turkey will be given the monetary resources, technical expert and material needed to

build water management facilities. Furthermore, the government has committed itself to funding

research and development initiatives to find new sources of water within their borders.

Because global warming and climate change is a problem that affects every country, Tur-

key will not be the only nation searching for new sources of water. Given the lack of stability in

the region, there is a possibility that a water conflict could arise between Turkey and any of its

neighbors. According to a study done by the Journal of Peace Research, it is unlikely that a wa-

ter war would develop between nations because of international agreements that would stipulate

shared use of the water source (Tir). However, international agreements are known to be broken

or circumvented by nation’s struggling to survive. It is hard to imagine a nation like Iran or Syr-

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ia abiding by a paper agreement when their very survival is at risk. As a result, the United States

needs to be prepared for a likely foreign policy issue developing because of an armed water con-

flict. Instead of military action to catch terrorists, the US may be faced with using force to pre-

vent one nation from using another country’s water supply.

Food Security:

Climate change will have a colossal impact on the food supply and agriculture sector of

the Turkish economy. Among the issues that could arise, is the concern that farmers and food

suppliers will be forced to significantly raise prices for farm and land raised foods. While many

of the larger cities in Turkey like Istanbul and Ankara have very wealthy sections, much of the

country is mired in poverty. In the coming decade, the focus of Turkey will be on developing

and providing access to every citizen enough food to supply their nutritional needs and dietary

preferences. This means, that Turkey is focused on developing a plan for sustaining their exist-

ing food supply, maintaining arable land and on finding new avenues to supplement their food

sources.

In addition to feeding the Turkish population, the government has been forced to help

support the influx of Syrian refugees to the country. While it should be noted that Turkey has

received substantial monetary assistance and material support from international aid organiza-

tions and the United Nations, the nation still has to give up their available land and resources to

these refugees. Beginning in 2011, Turkey began accommodating substantial numbers of Syri-

ans fleeing the country’s Civil War. Turkey welcomed these refugees without debate and many

have been placed in tent cities in Hatay provence. While not a five star resort, these tent cities

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are much nicer than those found in other countries and offer a high standard of living including

education for young students. In the past year, Turkey has come under criticism for turning away

refugees because it lacked the space and/or tents needed. Despite this, the efforts of the Turkish

government to provide a safe and secure living environment for the Syrian refugees is nothing

short of admirable (Taub).

With this influx in population, Turkey’s natural resources have been even more rapidly

depleted. As a result, concerns about a potential food crisis and conflict have increased in the

past year. According to a study by the World Food Programme, the increase in Syrian refugees

in Turkey is not expected to have an immediate impact on the country’s food supply. In fact, it is

highly unlikely that it would pose a serious problem for several years. However, given that the

number of Syrian refugees grew by nearly 7% in a three month period from January 2013 to

April 2013, it is easy to see this quickly becoming a problem during the next decade (Stephen).

Furthermore, given that the conflict in Syria shows no sign of ending especially with Russia’s

attention diverted to the crisis in Ukraine it appears that the refugees are likely to stay. As a re-

sult, Turkey will be forced to face the dilemma of offering these refugees a process for citizen-

ship in the country or continue to fund the camps.

Earthquakes:

Turkey has been the site of many of the world’s largest earthquakes in history. Seismolo-

gists believe that two earthquakes in modern day Antakya resulted in the days of 500,000 people

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In the modern era, it is estimated that about 100,000 people have died because of 76 earthquakes

in Turkey (Erdik). An article by the BBC concludes that Turkey is more susceptible to earth-

quakes than other countries because of its location between two massive tectonic plates (BBC

Earthquake Misery). Changes in the environment and climate have led to the inevitable shifting

of these plates and a massive earthquake is going to be unavoidable. Unfortunately, it is next to

impossible to prevent an earthquake from occurring. Instead, Turkey must have an effective

strategy in place to deal with the aftermath of a devastating natural disaster.

While a student at Boston University, I studied at Bogazici University in Istanbul. Be-

cause the city lived in fear of an earthquake, the university took many measures to protect stu-

dents. For example, the dormitory that I lived in was three stories tall and built from the strong-

est material possible. Although the interior and exterior could have passed for an American jail,

the Turkish students informed me that this was a common practice in the country. Despite the

precautions taken at this university, many buildings and homes in Istanbul and the surrounding

area are not built to withstand a massive earthquake. It is not a question of if an earthquake will

strike in Istanbul, but when. An earthquake of devastating impact in Turkey would impact US

foreign policy on many levels. On the most basic level, the US would send hundreds of millions

of dollars in aid and humanitarian supplies to Turkey. In addition, the US might be forced to

look elsewhere in the region for a forward operating base and would lose their vantage point in

Asia.

Natural Disaster Risk Management/Response:

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In an effort to better respond to climate change related events, Turkey is focused on im-

plementing and training an effective natural disaster risk management team. This team will be

committed to planning, preparing, controlling and mitigating the impact of a climate related dis-

aster in the country. Because Turkey has already recognized that floods, droughts, landslides and

earthquakes are the most likely climate related disasters that will occur during the next 10-15

years the country has already begun implementing a plan to lessen the consequences of said

event. To this end, the Turkish government has published reports detailing changes to their dis-

aster response plan. The new system features a more decentralized system that fosters and en-

courages cooperation and communication between different agencies and municipalities in Tur-

key. Prior to this new plan, Turkey featured a predominantly top down approach to disaster relief

with little room for improvisation that is required when dealing with a crisis. Other changes in-

clude a single body for coordination of disaster response and more powerful authorities placed in

local cities and towns (Kuterdem).

A natural disaster in Turkey would require the immediate response of the US government.

This response would be even more important if the US Air Force base in Incirlik, Turkey was at

risk due to the disaster. Depending on whether or not the disaster occurred near the border with

Iran, Iraq or Syria the US would have to worry about the potential for another armed conflict to

erupt. These nations could capitalize on the apparent weakness of Turkey after a natural disaster

by doing activities that the US may not approve of because America’s attention would be divert-

ed.

In addition to the impact of a natural disaster in Turkey on US foreign policy in the re-

gion, it is also important to look at the impact if a similar event were to occur in a border country.

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A natural disaster in Iran or Iraq could plunge either nation into a state of complete anarchy and

panic that would require immediate attention by the United States. As a result, maintaining a

positive and productive relationship with Turkey during the next several decades is of paramount

importance.

Public Health:

On a surface level, climate change may not appear to be a public health risk. However,

considering that heat waves in the United States routinely result in deaths during the summer

months it should be noted that climate change can have a direct impact on public health. Be-

cause Turkey is already notable for its dry and humid summers, an increase of even just one or

two degrees Celsius could lead to many more deaths and injuries. Other risks of an increase in

temperature on public health include cardiovascular diseases, kidney problems, respiratory tract

infections and much more (Turkey’s National Climate Change Strategy). Given that it is impos-

sible to prevent the rise in temperature, Turkey has adopted a public information campaign to

publicize information elated to an expectant heat wave. Turkey will be more proactive in declar-

ing a state of emergency in the event that the weather could pose a health risk to citizens.

Further Implications of Climate Change in Turkey on US Foreign Policy:

In addition to the aforementioned consequences of climate change in Turkey on US for-

eign policy it is important to look at its impact on other countries in the region. Considering that

the US has a strategic interest in each of Turkey’s border states, a climate change related disaster

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or war in one of these countries could wreak havoc on stability in the Middle East. However, the

largest threat to US foreign policy in the region may originate from inside Turkey’s borders by

the ethnic Kurdish population. For years, this population of exiled Iranians has sought to form

an independent state of Kurdistan in either Turkey, Syria or Iran. In recent years, the Kurdish-

Turkish conflict has become increasingly violent with more than 100 Turkish soldiers killed in

just the last year. Much of the conflict is between Turkey and the main rebel group, the Kurdis-

tan Workers’ Party (PKK). Having already been declared a terrorist organization by the Turkish

government, the PKK routinely launches attacks in Southeastern Turkey. Not only has the crisis

resulted in the deaths of civilians and soldiers, it is also estimated to have cost Turkey between

$300 and $450 Billion (International Crisis Group). The Kurdish problem coupled with a cli-

mate change event could pose a significant challenge to American foreign policy because the US

would be forced to intervene. In that situation not only would the US have to provide humanitar-

ian assistance, but also they may be required to use military force to quell any attempts by the

PKK and the Kurds to establish a permanent state within the Turkish border.

The relationship between Turkey and Israel has become strained in recent years and this

continues to pose a challenge to US foreign policy. Because both nations are critical allies of the

US, it is important that they are able to mend their troubled relationship. In 2010, tensions be-

tween the two countries reached an apex when nine Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli troops

in international waters. In what became known as the Gaza Flotilla incident, the Turkish gov-

ernment denounced the attack and stated that it could lead to an irreparable relationship with Is-

rael (Zanotti). The Turkish government has condemned the Israeli settlements in the Gaza strip

and supports the establishment of a permanent Palestinian state. Because the US wants to have a

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coordinated foreign policy with Israel and Turkey it is important that both countries get along.

During the next 10-15 years there is a significant concern that the relationship between Turkey

and Israel will continue to deteriorate. In the event that Turkey were to suffer a serious natural

disaster due to climate change, it is important that Israel remain an ally because they are in the

perfect position to provide assistance immediately after the event.

In addition to the Kurdish population and Israel, Turkey’s relationship and proximity to

Iran is a critical component of US foreign policy. The US relies on Turkey to be able to limit the

influence of Iran in the region while maintaining economic ties to the country. Turkey balances a

thin line with the US when it comes to Iran because Turkey has an economic and trade relation-

ship with Iran that needs to continue (Zanotti). An earthquake, flood or other form of natural

disaster in Turkey could give Iran the push it needs to become a hegemony in the region. While

US attention is diverted in Turkey, Iran could use this opportunity to seize more control and

power in the Middle East.

Conclusion:

There is no doubt that a serious climate change related disaster will occur during the next

decade. As a result, every country worldwide has been pouring money and resources into devel-

oping a disaster response plan. Because the US has an interest in nearly every country in the

Middle East, it has to rely on Turkey to be able to respond quickly and effectively should a cli-

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mate change event strike the country. In addition to the growing risk of earthquakes in Turkey,

the country is also at risk of higher than average rising temperatures. As a result, the country can

expect to see an increasing number of droughts and floods in the coming years. Given that Tur-

key hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria and has a large Kurdish population, cli-

mate change could pose a serious challenge to US foreign policy.

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Petersen-Perlman, Jacob , Jennifer Veilleux, Matthew Zentner, and Aaron Wolf. "Case Studies on Water Security: Analysis of System Complexity and the Role of Institutions." Univer-sities Council on Water Resources. Oregon State University and US Department of De-fense, n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2014. <http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/publications/publications/Petersen_Perlman_et_al_Case_Studies.pdf>.

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