impact of delhi metro on real estate

8/3/2019 Impact of Delhi Metro on Real Estate

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Impact of Delhi Metro on

Prof. H.M.Shivanand Swamy

n vers y


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Direct economic benefits

Travel Time savings, vehicle cost savings, transit optionvalue, environmental benefits

Indirect

increase in property values

land use changes,

benefits of improved access to jobs & critical locations,


3/33

Anal se land value chan es

Over Time Project Stage Project Formulation stage (year 1990-1996)

Construction sta e 1996- 2000 and

post project (2001-2006)

Over space

Across different areas/localities

With in localities

non-metro effect

Comment on Value Ca ture


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Impacts Other CasesTyne & Wear Metro, Newcastle, U.K, Manchester Metro link, London Docklands Light

Railway, Helsinki Metro, Finland, Vienna S-Bahn, Austria,Nantes, France

House prices increased 2% within 200 meters of metro stations.

Retail activity or office developments in proximity to stations does not appear to

be directly linked to LRT.

Development of 20 500 sq.m of offices and services in City centre.

50% of capital cost was recaptured through overall office development and job

creation.

In the best locations, dwelling prices raised by 11%.

Price of property located within walking distance of the nearest railway or metro

station increased 7,5% over other locations. Impact was most significant at a distance of 500-750 m., as opposed to adjacent

locations, where values dropped. (Finland)

Districts located along S-Bahn corridor have witnessed increases in number of

new housing units of 18, 7% over 10 yr. period, as opposed to 4% and 10% in moreremote locations.


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Delhi Mass Ra id Transit Pro ect An Overview

Total four phases, firstphase complete.

Total length of first phase

50 kmTotal cost of first phase25550 million

Cost per Km of first phase511 million rupees per km

Total length of full system167 km

system : 53775 million

Return Expected fromPro ert Develo ment : Rs

1533 million


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Study Area Detail

Metro line

LAND AS A RESOURCE FOR URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOCUS ON TRANSPORT SECTOR


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1.a. Land values as a function of

s ance rom60000

With Metro becoming

40000

50000

values

,

The curve isbecoming flatter

20000

30000

side

ntialland

2005

Ph-II

Land values in

periphery isincreasing

0

10000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

R 2000

19961990

Ph-I Changing UrbanStructure - Alternate

Distance from CP

elhi

agh

lace

agar

agar

rden

gar

East

Eas

We

ada

ra mor

arka

pura

ohini

The effect of

7

new

d

Karo

l

Rajendra

p

Pateln

Kirti

n

Rajouriga

Tilak

n

Janakpuri

Uttamnag

ar

Uttamnag

ar

N

a

Shah

d

Dwark

D

w

PitaR

improved access!!


8/33

1.b. Land values as a function of

90000

100000 s ance rom

60000

70000

80000

landvalues

200030000

40000

50000

C

omm

ercial 2005

Ph-II

0

10000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1996

1990

Ph-I

i h cea

rar

enrsta

seda o

ra u

ra

ini

newdel

Karolb

a

Rajendrapla

Patelnag

Kirtina

g

Rajourigar

d

Tilakna

g

JanakpuriE

Uttamnagar

E

Uttamnagar

Naw

a

Shahda

r

Dwarka

Dwar

Pitam

p

Roh


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. Inter-zonal Analysis (16

Intra-zonal Analysis

Zones

A Old City E East Delhi

9

C Civil Lines H NW Delhi

D New Delhi K Dwarka


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Zones A, B, C, D have above avera e rowth

Inter Zonal Analysis Increase Land Values

rate till 2000, due to locational advantage.

Since 2000, only B maintained its average

rowth rate as com ared to A & C as it has

residential component, whereas zones A & C

have more commercial areas

,

Central Zones (A,B,C,D) also have above

average growth rate in land values

zones, also attained land value increase.

Zones G,H,K, have higher growth rate as

zones

Zone E has seen significant increase in

10

commerc a grow ,

Residential Land Values Commercial Land Values


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20.0

25.0

tin

lLand

s

Shift in land values with distance from Me tro line from

'a' to 'b'

20.0

25.0

30.0

mercial

lues

Shift in land values with distance from Metro line from

'a' to 'b'

Land value

0.0

5.0

10.0

.

%S

hi

Residentia

Valu

A B E G H K

Zone 1990 19962000 2005

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

%

ShiftinCo

LandV

A B E G H K

Zone 1990 19962000 2005

analyzed inbelts alongmetro line:

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

tinResidential

andValu

es

Shift in land values with distance from Metro line from

'a' to 'c'

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

inCommercial

andValu

es

Shift in land values with distance from Me tro line from

'a' to 'c' a 1000m

one s ows sa ura on n res en a areas as ere s no e ec odistance on land values.

In the peripheral zones E,H and K which are in developing

s age; mpac s g an c ear y v s e . There is an average decrease of 8-10% and 15-18% in values as we

move from belt a to belt b and c respectively


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Intra-zonal analysis

Land value analysis bysubzones for zones E,G,H & K Variation by time (before and after

Most properties in all zones lie

between 10,000/- to 20,000/- per

project completion)

Variation by land use

Variation by distance from metro Besides the Metro facility, there are

other factors which affect the land

40

50

60

ies

Distribution of Land Values in Zones value

To assess degree of impact of

20

30

%

ofProper ,

detailed regression analysis done

using other factors like:

0

10

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

location, dist from metro line, yrs of

metro operation, infrastructure

availability, nature of development

Combined E-Zone G-Zone H-Zone K-Zone


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Metro link-

Phase 1

17

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone E (East Delhi)Introduction

, ,

Most of the area was vacant, except old settlements such as Shahdara, Geeta

colony.

1814 15

16

6532

7 eve opmen o more roa r ges n rapras a r ge, az ra a r ge,

Nizzamuddin bridge), lead to development of unauthorized colonies at the entry point

of these bridges, due to its proximity to walled city CBD, connaught place etc. E

19

8

1011

1213

Po ulation Growth- E Zone

O20 21

Land Use- E Zone

100%

200

250

300

('000

)

1981 1991 2001

40%

60%

Very few green spaces, inadequate

Area: 8797 Ha

50

100

150

Population

0%

20%

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E 12 E13 E 14 E15 E 16 E 17 E19 E 20 E21

transport linkages (ROW is less than

required in most of the areas)

Commercial area in each sub zone caters

0

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14 E15 E16 E17 E18 E19 E20 E21

Sub Zones

Population in zones E1 & E2, is highest, since 1981, as these have the only connection of road cum rail

brid e and have unauthorized re ularized colonies

13

Sub Zones

Residential Semi-Public Commercial Industries Green

Transport Utility/ Vacant Public Circular Community Centres commerc ial centres

% increase in population in E1 & E2, is less as compared to the other far off zones, as these mainly are

unauthorized regularized colonies


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Intra Zonal Analysis Zone E (East Delhi)

R e s ide nt i a l La nd Va l ue s100 . 0 2001 2002 2003

2 0 . 0

4 0 . 0

6 0 . 0

8 0 . 0

lue/sqm(

000)

2001 2002

0 . 0

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14 E15 E16 E17 E18 E19 E2 0 E2 1

Sub zones

V

An overall increase in land values since 2004-2005

Zones along the metro route, have shown comparatively higher rise,

14

Zones near to the metro route in E Zone mostly has unauthorised regularised colonies, slums, poorinfrastructure.


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Summary

1. Distance from Metro

Hedonic Analysis: The variables which are having a significant impact on land

Distance of land from Metro Line

Distance of land from CP.Location of area.

. Among the variables distance from the metro alone explains the 22% of the

variation in the land value. Thus, the availability and proximity to metro, plays a

major role in determining the impact of Metro on real estate prices.

Properties within 500m of the metro line have experienced a higher land value

change as compared to properties beyond 500m. Land value decreases as

one moves away from the metro line.

Within 500 mtrs of Metro Line, change in land value is higher and is more or less

same for both the residential and commercial properties.

15

,

properties


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Summary

2. Land use Effect

commercial properties.

For Residential area, on an average land value within 500m of metro line

. . ,

500m of metro line increased by 18.1%.

Threshold limit for the residential properties is approximately up to 500m from

me ro ne, w ereas m ncreases up o approx ma e y m or commerc a

properties.

Increase in land value is highly dependent on the income of the people

occupy ng e area ese are a so e areas w c are p anne

16


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Summary

3. Number of years of Operation of Metro

Land Value changes are more consistent and higher after the operation of

metro as compared to the construction and planning stage. (land value

increases by 2- 4% every year.)

To Conclude:- Impacts on urban structure is significant. Integrated landuse transport planning

- e ro con r u on o an va ue r se s a ou . par va ue s cap ure nproperty taxes. Re-appropriation is difficult as they are 2 different agencies.

- Value capture is possible only if linked to additional FSI/TDR

- To reap benefits of better accessibility, redevelopment schemes for non-planned/slum areas

17

- g me o cap ure va ue rs rea e a ue an en ap ure


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Thankyou

Contact information:

[email protected]

Poonam Dudani (2008), Impact of Transit Project onLand Values- A Case Study of Delhi Metro, CEPTMasters Thesis

CEPT UniversityKasturbhai Lalbhai Campus

Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009

RESOURCE FOR URBAN INFRASTRUCTUREDEVELOPMENT, CEPT Masters Thesis

I t Z l A l i


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Metro link-

Phase 1

17

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone E (East Delhi)Introduction

, ,

Most of the area was vacant, except old settlements such as Shahdara, Geeta

colony.

1814 15

16

6532

7 eve opmen o more roa r ges n rapras a r ge, az ra a r ge,

Nizzamuddin bridge), lead to development of unauthorized colonies at the entry point

of these bridges, due to its proximity to walled city CBD, connaught place etc. E

19

8

1011

1213


O20 21

Land Use- E Zone

100%

200

250

300

('000

)

1981 1991 2001

40%

60%

Very few green spaces, inadequate

Area: 8797 Ha

50

100

150

Population

0%

20%

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E 12 E13 E 14 E15 E 16 E 17 E19 E 20 E21

transport linkages (ROW is less than

required in most of the areas)

Commercial area in each sub zone caters

0


Sub Zones



19

Sub Zones

Residential Semi-Public Commercial Industries Green

Transport Utility/ Vacant Public Circular Community Centres commerc ial centres



I t Z l A l i


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Metro link-

Phase 1


Introduction

Till 1962, only one road cum rail bridge, was link between city & Trans Yamuna Zone

Most of the area was vacant, except old settlements such as Shahdara, Geeta colony.

Development of 3 more road bridges (Indraprastha bridge, Wazirabad bridge, &

17

18

14 1516

Nizzamuddin bridge), lead to development of unauthorized colonies at the entry point of

these bridges, due to its proximity to walled city CBD, Connaught place etc.

E

6532

1 4

7

9

8

1011


O

13

19

20 21

200

250

300

('000

)

1981 1991 2001

50

100

150

Population

0


Sub Zones



20



I t Z l A l i


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R e s ide nt i a l La nd Va l ue s100 . 0 2001 2002 2003

2 0 . 0

4 0 . 0

6 0 . 0

8 0 . 0

lue/sqm(

00

0)

2001 2002

0 . 0

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14 E15 E16 E17 E18 E19 E2 0 E2 1

Sub zones

V

An overall increase in land values since 2004-2005

Zones along the metro route, have shown comparatively higher rise,

21

Zones near to the metro route in E Zone mostly has unauthorised regularised colonies, slums, poorinfrastructure.

I t Z l A l i


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C o m m e r c i a l L a n d Va l u e s

250

300

2001 2002 2003

100

150

200

lue/sqm(

00

0)

0

50


Sub Zones

V

20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Sub zones E8, 12, 13 which are one of the oldest, planned areas in E zone, have the highest rise in

commercial land value, though they are far from the metro.

22

Among the sub zones near to the metro, only zones E1 & E4 have shown, a markable rise in land values,

I t Z l A l i


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17

16

6532

1 47 162

15

3 5

18

14 15 16

6532

1 47

Sub Zones lying withinE

8

1011

14

E

O

8

10

12

13

19

1.5 km of metro line

8 109

Characteristics

High Density Area

Road width 5m to 7m

Very few developed open spaces

Metro line abutting GT road, & rail line, which are one of the oldest

linkages for the area to the main city

23

Intra Zonal Anal sis


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Intra Zonal Analysis Zone E (East Delhi)Residential Land Values

Within 0-.5 km of Metro line

50

60

70

80

90

qm(

'000)

E1

E2

Between 0.5-1 km from Metro Line

30

40

50

60

sqm(

'000)

E1

E2

E3

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Value/

E3

E4

E5

0

10

20

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Value/

E4

E5

ear ear

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

24

Land Value/ Sqm (000)Legend: Land Value/ Sqm (000)Legend:

Metro Route

Intra Zonal Analysis


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Within 0-.5 km distance from Metro Line Within 0.5-1 km distance from Metro Line

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone E (East Delhi)Commercial Land Values

100

120

140

160

180

200

/sqm(

'000)

E1

E2

E3

50

60

70

80

90

100

sqm(

'000)

E1

E2

E3

0

20

40

60

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Value

E4

E5

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Value

E4

E5

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

25

Land Value/ Sqm (000)Legend: Land Value/ Sqm (000)Legend:

Metro Route

Intra Zonal Analysis Z G (W D lhi)


26/33

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone G (West Delhi)

Introduction

- .

Except Sub zones 1, 2, 3, which have the industrial belt of the zone, other

sub zones have adequate mix of land use, which provides in zone G a good

ualit of livin

Population Grow th250

L and Use - G Z o n e

100%

Vacant

Rural

Sub Zone 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 15 which is cantt area has lot of open space,

Area: 11,865 Ha150

200

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%Public & Semi Pub.

Govt (Det)

Govt (Undet.)

Util ity

0

50

G-1 G-2 G-3 G-4 G-8 G-9 G-10 G-13 G-14 G-16 G-17 Cantt

0%

10%

20%

Sub Zone

Traff ic Transport

Recreational

Manufacturing

Commercial

Resident ial

Sub Zones 1981 1991 2001

26

Intra Zonal Analysis G ( )


27/33

R es id en t i a l L an d Va lu es140

2001


60

80

100

120

2002

2003

0

20

40

G1 G2 G3 G4 G8 G9 G10 G13 G14 G16 G17

2004

2005

2006

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Legend:

Land Value/

sqm (000)

Sub zones alon metro G-2 3 8 9 13 14 16 have shown the hi hest increase

Metro Line

Though metro passes through the G1, but not much hike in land values could be found, it could be

attributed to the fact, that its basically a industrial zone

27

, , ,

than G4.

Intra Zonal Analysis Z G (W t D lhi)


28/33


C o mmercial Land V alues350

150

200

250

300

2002

2003

2004

0

50

100

G1 G2 G3 G4 G8 G9 G10 G13 G14 G16 G17

S u b Z o n e s

2005

2006

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Though zones G1, 4, 10, share the similar characteristics, but the percent shift in G1 is more as Legend:

Land Value/compare o e

Shopping malls, 5 star hotel, Multi level parking, Development of district centre in sub zone G13

Flyovers (reducing congestion on the roads), Shopping malls, improvement in provision of water,

sqm (000)

28

e ec r c y e c n su zone - ,Metro Line



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Residential Land Value with 0-.5 km distance from metro -

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone G (West Delhi)Residential Land Values

80

100

120

140

0)persqm

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

.

80

100

120

140

0)persqm

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0

20

40

60

G1 G2 G3 G8 G9 G13 G14 G16

Values('0

0

20

40

60

G1 G2 G3 G8 G9 G13 G14 G16

Values('0

Sub Zones abutting Metro line Sub Zones abutting Metro line

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

29

Land Value/ Sqm (000)

Legend:

Metro Route



30/33

Commercial Land Value with 0-.5 km distance from metro Commercial Land Value with.5-1 km distance from metro

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone G (West Delhi)Commercial Land Values

20 0

250

30 0

350

)persqm

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

150

20 0

250

)persqm

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0

50

100

150

V

alues('00

0

50

100

V

alues('00

G1 G2 G3 G8 G9 G13 G14 G16

Sub Zones abutting Me tro line

G1 G2 G3 G8 G9 G13 G14 G16

Sub Zones abutting Metro line

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

30

Land Value/ Sqm (000)

Legend:Land Value/ Sqm (000)

Legend:Metro Route

Intra Zonal Analysis Zone H (North West Delhi)


31/33


Comprised of extension of city in North West of Delhi,

Characterized by well planned residential localities.

Broadly it can be divided into two parts viz.,

-

H-7, 8, 9 (Rohini scheme & Mangolpuri).

Special characteristics:

H1, 6, - 2 JJ re-settlement colonies namely Wazirpur & Shakurpur &

9 urban villages. , , , .

5 Ha of special children cum trafficpark, for providing training park, as

part of distt park at Gulabi Bagh. (H1)

,

Land near Pitampura TV Tower (H5 sub zone) to be developed for

eating places in evening & late evening

31

- -

Delhi admin & DDA offices.



32/33

Residential land Values

80

90


30

40

50

60

70

e('000)per

sqm

0

10

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9Subzones

val

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Commercial land Values

160180

200

m

40

60

80

100

120

140

v

alue('000)pers

0

20

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9Subzones

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

32


33/33

Developmental Transformations in and around metro stations

Metro station Type of structures Activity

Before After Before After Dwarka Low residential area Residential apartments

coming up approved by

DDA

Residential area Increased residential use.

Dwarka Mod Unapproved area covered Single storied buildings, Low residential area Dominant land use is

by slums unapproved colony. residential,

Development of informal

commercial activities.

Small size shops all along

Nawada

Uttamnagar West Single storied buildings

occupied by lower middle

class

Lower middle class

residences predominantly

two storied buildings

Residential area with very

few shops.

Dominant land use is

residential but small size

shops all along the metro

line

Uttamnagar east

Tilaknagar Upper middle class

residential area

High and upper middle

class residences

Residential area with few

commercial centers

Dominant land use is

residential.

predominantly two storied.

Multistoried commercial

buildings.

located within the

residential zone New categories of higher

order commercial activities

coming up.

Kirti nagar

Patel nagar

Rajendra place

there class residences. area.

.

Commercial complexes

coming up.

Pitampura Scarcely populated single

storied structures

Newly developed

residential areas,

predominantly two storied

structures.

Predominantly residential

character

Increase in commercial

activities.Rohini

New Delhi station Combination of old and

new structures

Combination of old and

new structures

Mixed land use commercial use is

dominant

Karol bagh High income group

residences

Apartments coming up Residential area Dominant residential

character

impact of delhi metro on real estate

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