impact of possible future climate on coastal winds, storm surges and wave conditions in the north...
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IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS,
STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA
Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH, Institute for Coastal Research,
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
IUGG Sapporo, 7 July 2003, MC08, FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE
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Series of EU projects
• WASA (1995-97)
• STOWASUS (1998-2001)
• PRUDENCE (2001-2003)
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WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Windgeschwindigkeit der größten Stürme bei CO2 Verdopplung
STOWASUS: Ein ähnliches Szenario
WA
SA
, 1
99
8.
Inst
itu
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üst
enfo
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un
g
I f K
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea wind: increase of up to 0.5 m/s (10%ile)
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Kauker
and L
angenberg
, 2
00
1
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Mean water level: +10 cm
Storm related sea level: + 5 cm
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Inst
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I f K Langenberg
et
al.,
19
99
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
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Langenberg
et
al.,
19
99
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
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Zukünftige Szenarien
WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Höhen der größten Wellen bei CO2 Verdopplung
CDV-2075: Mögliche Änderung des Überspülens von Deichen bei CO2 Zunahme
Günth
er
et
a.,
19
98
Inst
itu
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üst
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un
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I f K
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (10%ile)
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Anders
en
et
al.,
200
1
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea wind: increase of up to 2 m/s (0.1%ile)
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STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Flath
er
and W
iliam
s, 2
00
0
North Sea elevation: increase of up to 40 cm (estimated 50 yr return values)
Kaas
et
al., 20
01North Sea
elevation: increase of up to 20 cm (estimated 50 yr return values)
RIKZ
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STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Kaas
et
al., 20
01
North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (0.1%ile)
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Inst
itu
t fü
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üst
enfo
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un
g
I f K Ralf W
eis
se,
200
3
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
Ross
by C
ente
r R
CA
O
sim
ula
tion
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Inst
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un
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I f K Katj
a W
oth
, 200
3Ross
by C
ente
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CA
O
sim
ula
tion
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
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• Over the years, several projections for the changing storm and storm impact statistics in the North Sea area, related to anthropogenic arming, have been constructed.
• These projects WASA, STOWASUS and PRUDENCE have been or are funded by the European Commission.
Conclusions
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The scenarios indicate uniformly for the North Sea:
• A slight increase of higher wind percentiles of up to 0.5-2 m/s.
• A slight increase of storm surge levels, of up to 20-40 cm.
• A slight increase in significant wave height of up to 0.5 m.
Conclusions
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Climate change Temperature WinterClimate change Temperature Winter
Climate change Precipitation WinterClimate change Precipitation WinterOle Bøssing Christensen, 2003
PRUDENCE regional scenarios
Dynamically downscaled from HADAM3H