impact of the xev market growth on lithium-ion …...impact of the xev market growth on lithium-ion...

Impact of the xEV Market growth on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Raw Materials Supply 2018-2030

Director, AVICENNE ENERGYChristophe PILLOT

January 30, 2019Strasbourg, France

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2017-2018• The Li-ion battery value chain• Battery for Automotive forecasts• Industrial battery forecasts• Conclusions


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Impact of the xEV Market Growth on Lithium-Ion

Batteries and Raw Materials Supply 2018-2030

Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET OVERVIEW

2Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2018

(1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer

69 75 81

12.513

14

2016 2017 2018 (Est.)

Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies)

Expected CAGR 18-30 (%)

+8%

~ +2-3 %

+7-9%

8288

(1)Primary

Rechargeable

95


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018

37,5

40

01020304050607080

1990

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Billi

on U

S $

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

>80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level19% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018)

01020304050607080

1990

2005

2014

2016

2018

Billi

on U

S$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests,

Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EVOTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, …

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2018 3


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE > 535 000 IN 2018

World excl. China growth +18%Chinese Growth + 100%

China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives

4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2018

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

P-HE

V (u

nits

)

OTHERS

CHINA

EUROPE

US

+37%

US22%

EUROPE32%

CHINA35%

Others11%

USA (+40%)

Japan (-30%)

Europe (+25%)

China (+100%)

Others

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

P-HE

V (u

nits

)


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

EV (u

nits

)

OTHERS

CHINA

EUROPE

US

EV SOLD WORLDWIDE> 1,4 M IN 2018World excl. China growth > 65%Chinese Growth > 65%

China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives

5Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2018

> 65%

US17%

EUROPE16%

CHINA63%

OTHERS4%

USA (+130%)

Japan (+50%)

Europe (+30%)

China (+70%)

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000

1,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018EV

(uni

ts)


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

6

(1) Cell levelOthers: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2018

>160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018+24 % per year in Volume

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2017

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices

Phones17%

Portable PC66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2018: 160 GWh

Electronic devices

20%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

20%

Auto, E-bus China44%

Industrial, ESS5%Others

11%


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS2017-2030

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-bookCellular Phones, Smart-phonesTabletsPower BankCamcordersCordless Tools, Gardening toolsDigital CameraGames, MP3Cordless PhonesShavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars, ToysDronesHoverboardE-bikesPower toolsSecurity lightingVehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-busesIndustrial motive (forklift)Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom)MedicalEnergy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

7

Main segment trendsPower need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time) Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor, 2016 -2025 ForecastsOEM strategies and positionsMain drivers & limiters


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)

8

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-Pouch Li-ion PrLi-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 17-30: + 4%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

2020

2025

2030

MW

h

Other PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

OEM INVESTMENT IN VEHICLEELECTRIFICATION

Ford will invest $11 billion by 2022 to launch 40 new electric cars and hybrids worldwideVolkswagen plan to spend $40 Billion by 2030 to build electrified versions of its 300-plus global modelsDaimler will spend at least $11,7 billion to introduce 10 pure electric 40 hybrid modelsNissan pledged to launch 8 new electric vehicles and hit annual sales of 1 million electrifiedvehicles by 2022Toyota will launch 10 Evs by the early 2020s and sell 5,5 million electrified vehicles, includinghybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, by 2030BMW will offer 25 electrified (12 fully electric) vehicles by 2025GM pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023Honda says two-thirds of total car sales to be electrified models by 2030Chinese automakers, all have publicized aggressive investment plans

9

Carmakers to invest more than $90 Billion in EV

Source: Ted Miller, Ford, AABC Japan 2018 – Avicenne Energy


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

CARMAKERS TO INVEST MORE THAN $300 BILLION IN EV

Source: Reuters January 2019, Avicenne Energy

9142

2015

141110101010

88

77665553.9

2.52.3

0.90.80.70.50.40.30.3

0 20 40 60 80 100

VolkswagenDaimlerHyundai

ChanganToyota

FordFiat Chrysler

NissanRenault

TeslaGM

Great Wall (China)BMWGAC

JACMahindra (India)

GeelySAIC

DongfengBYD

BAICJaguar Land Rover

Tata (India)PSA

VolvoHondaCheryFAW

Mazda

10


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION

11

China – 60%USA – 2%

EU -<1%

Japan – 17%

Korea – 15%

PanasonicNECMaxellPEVEYUASA

SAFTFIAMM

BOLLORE

SAMSUNGLGSKIKokam

CATLBYD

Optinum NanoHefei Guoxuan

BAKLISHEN

FARASISEVE

Wanxiang (A123)Coslight

LGSAMSUNG

PANASONIC…

LGJohnson-Controls

EnersysSAFT

…TESLA

SAMSUNGLG

Others* – 5%

Source: AVICENNE 2018

* OTHERS: Malaysia mostly

$ 5 Bn35 GWh2019

$ 562 M3-5 GWh2018

$ 5 Bn34 GWh2028

$ 360 M2-3 GWh2018

$ 5 Bn32 GWh2023

122 162

191 247

297 350

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

100

200

300

400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Prod

uctio

n Ra

tio (%

)

Prod

. Cap

acity

MW

h

Production Capacity

Demand

Production Ratio

790 M$7,5 GWh2020

$ 282 M14 GWh2022

25 GWhSolid State ?2024-2025

EUROPE

European market share may increasefrom less than 1% in 2018 to ~10-15% in 2025 (70 GWh)

$ 1 Bn?

https://www.terrae.com/


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January 30th, 2019

0.08 0.1 0.2 0.30.50.3 0.3

0.6

1.3

2.6

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2010

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

Mill

ion

cars

HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS

12HEV: 1kWh battery / car

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured

0.6

1.6

3.4

6.4

0.4

0.7

1.5

3.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

kWh

/ Pa

ck

Mill

ion

cars

EV manufactured

1.12.2

2.83.6

5.0

9.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

% L

i-ion

HEV

Mill

ion

cars

0,44

0,8

3,1

PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car

1

5

9,6

China

World Excl.China

World Excl.China

China

World Excl.China

Base Scenario

1,6

2,3


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

0.08 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.50.3 0.40.8

2.5

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

Mill

ion

cars

HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS

13HEV: 1kWh battery / car

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured

0.61.7

3.6

6.4

0.4

0.9

2.9

7.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

kWh

/ Pa

ck

Mill

ion

cars

EV manufactured

1.1 2.2 2.85.2

13.8

28.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010

2015

2017

2020

2025

2030

% L

i-ion

HEV

Mill

ion

cars

0,45

1

6,5

PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car

1

6,5

13,8

China

World Excl.China

World Excl.China

China

World Excl.China

Realistic Scenario

2,8

2,6


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

LONG TERM EV FORECAST

14

(1) EIA – Avicenne estimation based on “Stock” numbers

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 – 2030

AAB, AABC US, June 2017BNEF, BATTERIES 2017, October 2017AVICENNE Analysis 2018

AVICENNE 2018 (Base)

BNEF 2017

TOTAL 2017 High

TOTAL 2017 Low

EIA (1)

AVICENNE 2018 (Realist)

Navigant (2017)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Num

ber o

f EV

sold

wor

ldw

ide

( Mill

ion)

AAB HIGH 2017AAB LOW 2017


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV2030 FORECASTSLi-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)CAGR 2015-2030: +23%

15

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-busE-bus excl. China

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)CAGR 2015-2030: +26%

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-busE-bus excl. China


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January 30th, 2019

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV2030 FORECASTS (REALISTIC SCENARIO)

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$)CAGR 2015-2030: +18%

16

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-bus ChinaE-Bus excl. China

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$)CAGR 2015-2030: +14%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-bus ChinaE-Bus excl. China


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

17Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2018

From 120 GWh in 2017 to 880 GWh CAGR 2015/203018 % per year in Volume

2017: >120 GWh

2030: >880 GWh

Electronic devices

26%


20%


Industrial, ESS5%

Others12%

Electronic devices

6%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China28%


Industrial, ESS4%Others

10%

15%

18%

24%

22%

4%

CAGR 15/30(Base scenario)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

M W

h


Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.China

Electronic devices


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January 30th, 2019

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

18Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2018

From 120 GWh in 2017 to >1,2 TWh CAGR 2015/2030+20 % per year in Volume

2017: >120 GWh

2030: 1200 GWh

Electronic devices

26%


20%


Industrial, ESS5%

Others12%

Electronic devices

5%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China47%


Industrial, ESS3%

Others7%

CAGR 15/30(Optimistic)

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

M W

h


Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.China

Electronic devices

14%

18%

24%

29%

4%


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2030Cathode active materials 2000-2030 - Tons

Cathode active materials in 2018 345 000 Tons

19

ASSUMPTIONS:Portable devices:2017-2030: +4% per year in volumeHEV: 3,3 M HEV/year in 2020, 6,4 M HEV in 2025 & 10 M in 2030 P-HEV: 0,65 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 1,4 M in 2025 & 2,6 M in 2030EV: 2 M EV/year in 2020 (1,4 M in China) / 4 M/year in 2025 (3 M in China) 100% LIB, 8 M EV in 2030 (> 5 M in China)Industrial, stationary & other applications 2016-2030: +15% per year in volume

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+600 000 EV sold per year in 2030 – TESLA forecast 500 000 in 2025)

LCO11%

NMC41%

NCA9%

LMO5%

LFP34%


LCO3%

NMC82%

NCA8%

LFP7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

2020

2025

2030

Tons

LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2018


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January 30th, 2019

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2030Cathode active materials 2000-2030 - Tons


20

ASSUMPTIONS:Portable devices:2017-2030: +4% per year in volumeHEV: 4,3 M HEV/year in 2020, 11 M HEV in 2025 & 24 M in 2030 P-HEV: 0,8 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 2,3 M in 2025 & 5 M in 2030EV: 2,2 M EV/year in 2020 (1,4 M in China) / 5,4 M/year in 2025 (3 M in China) 100% LIB, 12 M EV in 2030 (> 5 M in China)Industrial, stationary & other applications 2016-2030: +15% per year in volume

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+600 000 EV sold per year in 2030 – TESLA forecast 500 000 in 2025)

LCO11%

NMC41%

NCA9%

LMO5%

LFP34%


LCO2%

NMC87%

NCA6%LFP

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

2020

2025

2030

Tons

LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)



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January 30th, 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

% o

f the

Glo

bal p

rodu

ctio

n

Co fo

r Bat

terie

s (To

ns)

Nickel Lithium

21

METAL NEEDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY

Cobalt

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

% o

f the

Glo

bal p

rodu

ctio

n

Ni f

or b

atte

ries T

ons

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

% o

f the

Glo

bal p

rodu

ctio

n

Tons

(LCE

) for

bat

terie

s



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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

TAKEAWAYS

22

Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard……

Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive: 1% of the automotive market consume 60% of the LIBIn 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEVP-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 18 B$ market in 2017 - 36 B$ in 2020 & 75 B$ in 2030 with high numbers in China (2017: US$5 Billion for xEV and US$ 4 Billion for xE-Buses)EV expectations attract large Chemical companiesNew materials are needed to meet Automotive standardsHEV will account for 4% of the auto sales in 2020P-HEV & EV for 2-3% by 2020Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market (US$ 40 Bn) will be higher than Lead acid in value in 2018 (US$ 38 Bn)A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteriesNew LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 yearsESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025 (base scenario)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GW

h

Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%)LIB for xEV (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%)

25B$ 30B$65 B$

100 B$

170 B$

210325

1000 GWh

1 500 GWh

27

8

57

(CAGR 2015-2025)

75

(Pack level)

43B$

440

Battery Market 2015-2030 - CAGR = +7% / Li-ion>+10%

725

140 B$


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Strasbourg, France

January 30th, 2019

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOTAVICENNE [email protected]: +33 1 44 55 19 90Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

23


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January 30th, 2019

CO DEALS 2017-2018

24Source: Roskill – AABC Japan, 2018


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January 30th, 2019

NI DEALS 2017-2018



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January 30th, 2019

LITHIUM DEALS


impact of the xev market growth on lithium-ion …...impact of the xev market growth on lithium-ion...

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